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Wine Report of September 25, 2025

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information from the world of wine and wineries.

Key news

  • Italian wine exports in the first half of 2025 show a mixed trend: a slight decline in volume, but a 1.5% decline in value in the top markets according to Nomisma / WineNews.
  • The imposition of a 15% tariff by the United States on imports of EU products is hitting the European wine sector hard, and wineries are looking at alternative scenarios.
  • In the Valpolicella area, producers denounce the combined effect of US tariffs and the depreciation of the dollar against the euro, which is making European wines less competitive on the American market.
  • Italy expects a 2025 harvest of 47.4 million hectoliters , with healthy grapes and the potential to maintain its world leadership in wine production.
  • Italian wine companies are showing “cautious optimism”: according to a Mediobanca survey, a 1.7% increase in revenues and 2% in exports are expected for 2025, with particularly positive performances expected for sparkling wines (4.4% revenues, 6.1% exports).
  • On the regulatory front, the EU is focusing on new trade agreements: the draft Mercosur-EU agreement, if approved, could increase agri-food exports to those countries by up to 50%.
  • Innovation in the making: The study “Artificial Intelligence for Sustainable Wine Industry” highlights the growing presence of AI in sustainable vineyard management, winery operations, and wine tourism (monitoring, process optimization, and customer experience).

Strategic issues under observation

  1. Tariff pressure and the redefinition of transatlantic trade. The constraints of US tariffs are forcing wineries to reassess their geographical export priorities. A Plan B is needed, with penetration into Asia, South America, and Africa, to mitigate dependence on the US market.
  2. Margins under stress and competitive pressure. With rising costs (raw materials, logistics, duties) and price competition, focusing on unit value (premium, niche) becomes even more crucial. You can’t compete on volume alone.
  3. Aligning exports with real demand . Shipping isn’t enough: wines need to arrive on revolving shelves. The risk is accumulating stock in foreign markets or trade delays that erode margins and brand equity.
  4. Historical valorization & brand identity The recognition of historic brands like Tasca d’Almerita strengthens heritage narratives: storytelling, authenticity, and premium positioning are levers that can sustain the competitive advantage.
  5. Enabling Technologies & Sustainability Integrating AI into vineyards and wineries can reduce waste, optimize resources, and anticipate phytosanitary risks—essential elements in a context of growing margins and volatility.

Morning Report for September 11, 2025

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On the world of wine and wineries—streamlined, strategic, and designed to assist you as a consultant in the sector:

Updates of the day

  • Italy is heading for a plentiful 2025 harvest : production is estimated at around 47.4 million hectoliters . Quality is judged good to excellent in many regions, despite some critical climatic conditions.
  • Italian exports in the first six months of 2025: 1.5% in value and 2.1% in volume compared to the first half of 2024. Italy above the global average in the main monitored markets.
  • The global bulk wine market is slowing: inventories are rising, bulk exports are declining in some areas, and buyers are awaiting new harvests before making aggressive commitments.
  • US tariffs continue to weigh heavily: Italian imports to the United States slowed in value in June, even though the first half of the year remained positive; the “slowdown” in June was attributed to the end of stockpiling.
  • Winemaking / Territory: Veneto is seeing moderate growth (3-5%) according to initial data; Chianti is forecasting a decline in volumes (-10-15%) but high quality. Alto Adige is harvesting earlier than usual.
  • Sparkling Wines / Prosecco: Prosecco DOCG is reported as one of the sectors with a record-breaking 2025 harvest, considered among the best of the last 30 years in terms of quality.

M&A Radar

There are currently no recent reports of large-scale international acquisitions in the wine sector (Italy/Europe) as reported in the sources just analyzed. However:

  • Tommasi Family Estates has strengthened its presence in Southern Italy with the acquisition of Tenuta Eméra (Puglia) and Cantina Moros (LE), as reported by Wine Meridian.
  • There are currently no reliable public figures for many local operations.

Prices & Harvest

Region / AppearanceCurrent situationTrends / Relevant Notes
Total Italian production 2025~ 47.4 million hectoliters estimatedSignificant increase compared to 2024; we return to medium-term levels.
VenetoHarvest 3-5% less than last year; good-excellent grape healthModerate growth; some areas hit by severe weather are overcoming the difficulties.
ChiantiVolumes down 10-15%, but high quality confirmedEfforts to maintain quality; the drop in production does not appear to compromise organoleptic parameters.
South TyrolEarlier than usual harvest; favorable conditions with no significant hail/disease damage so farPotential competitive advantage for early/fresh white grapes.
US prices. Italian importsJune slightly down in value, but overall half-year stable/positiveThe US market is affected by the fine-stockpiling effect and tariffs; it may react, but with volatility

Morning Report for September 10, 2025

with:

on the world of wine and wineries—streamlined, strategic, and designed to assist you as a consultant in the sector:

Morning Report for September 10, 2025

Key updates

 

  • French 2025 production below the five-year average. France expects a harvest of 37.4 million hectoliters, 3% lower than in 2024 but 13% lower than the average; drought and the felling of over 20,000 hectares of vineyards are penalizing some regions.
  • The global wine market holds up despite decades-low production. Despite the decline in global production, trade flows remain strong, and Italy’s adaptability emerges as a model of stability.
  • Portugal activates an emergency fund for Douro winemakers. €15 million has been allocated to support small producers, dispose of surpluses, and initiate structural reforms in the sector.
  • Growing Innovation: Grape Exosomes Market to Double by 2031 Growing demand in the health and beauty sectors is driving the prospect of the market doubling within a few years.

 

Prices & Harvest

  • Italy : 2025 harvest estimated at 45 million hectoliters (9.5% on 2024), with good quality but concerns about US duties at 15%.
  • Tuscany : production expected at around 2.4 million hl , slightly down (from 2.7 million in 2024), with an organic share of 13-15% (10% per year).
  • Italian stocks : down 8.8% compared to June, with the sharpest drops in PGI and table wines.
  • Bulk wine market : In Chile, the harvest is down by around 25%, pushing prices higher and encouraging more early buying.

Ideas for professional posts

  1. Title: “Italy 2025: A growing harvest and exports contested between opportunities and US tariffs” Angle: How to use the positive production forecast to support strategic dialogues with foreign buyers and diversify markets, despite the new tariffs.
  2. Title: “Structural Resources for the Douro: Lessons for Italian Wine” Focus: Explain how the Portuguese emergency fund can inspire similar mechanisms (private and public) to support struggling wineries at the local and community levels.
  3. Title: “Innovating with Science: Grape Exosomes and New Paths to Value Beyond the Bottle” Angle: Highlighting the ability to open new segments—health, beauty—through technological innovation, offering a valuable perspective for strategic partners.

Morning report for Sunday, September 9, 2025

with:

Here’s our updated morning report on the world of wine and wineries, designed as a strategic foundation for a professional post.

Key Updates

  • US Study on Alcohol Risks Withdrawn The US Department of Health has withdrawn the “Alcohol Intake and Health Study,” which linked even just one drink a day to health risks, fueling uncertainty about future nutritional guidelines.
  • Nigeria’s wine market is growing. Weekly consumption has reached 7%, with an annual market of approximately 28,000 tons. Demand is driven by imports, primarily from France, the USA, Spain, South Africa, and Italy.
  • Chianti diversifies export markets In response to US tariff threats, the Chianti Consortium is pushing for new export outlets: South America, Asia, Africa, the Middle East, and Canada.
  • Valpolicella under tariff stress The exclusion of wine and alcohol from the EU-US tariff shield entails a 15% duty, with an estimated impact of up to €317 million annually on mainstream wines such as Valpolicella and Ripasso.
  • Strategic Acquisitions in California Natural Wine Overshine Collective, led by David Drummond, has acquired Reeve Wines and Martha Stoumen Wines while retaining the founders involved—a symbolic value in the hybridization of tech and wine.
  • Artificial Intelligence at the Service of Sustainability A recent study highlights how AI (predictive analytics, computer vision, chatbots) is already being used to optimize irrigation, production, and food and wine tourism, making wineries more efficient and attractive.

M&A Radar

  • Overshine Collective (David Drummond) : Acquisition of Reeve Wines and Martha Stoumen Wines in California. Strategy focused on natural wines and emerging brands. Founders still in the spotlight.

Ideas for Professional LinkedIn Posts

TitleAngle
“Chianti rethinks exports: how to diversify between geoeconomics and tariffs”analyzes the strategic choice of looking towards emerging markets as a proactive response to US difficulties.
Valpolicella under attack: dramatic tariffs, what can a trusted advisor do?shows how to support with a medium-term strategy, protecting brand value and resilience.
“AI Enters the Cellar: From Vineyard to Tourist, the Sustainable Revolution”It tells how technology is becoming a concrete lever for efficiency and customer experience, not just digital hope.
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