A network portal of Wine Idea. Discover the world of Wine idea

Wine Trends in Italy – Week 7–11 September 2026

with:

Italian wine is entering a phase of selection: excessive inventory, weaker consumption, complex exports, and new M&A operations
But wine tourism, technology and the search for new markets are growing.

The message coming from the Italian wine sector this week is increasingly clear:

Wine isn’t just going through a downturn. The market itself is changing.

Production, consumption, distribution, exports, and the financial structure of companies are moving simultaneously.

Wineries still have significant quantities of product in warehouses, traditional consumption is slowing, some categories are losing their centrality, and the United States has become more difficult.

At the same time, however, new opportunities are emerging.

Wine tourism continues to grow. Direct consumer relationships are gaining value. E-commerce is entering a more mature phase. Artificial intelligence is beginning to have concrete applications between vineyards and wineries. China, Japan, Africa, and other markets are once again receiving increased scrutiny.

And, above all, the sector is entering a new era of mergers, acquisitions, investor entry, and ownership changes.

They are different phenomena, but they have a common root:

Value will no longer be determined primarily by the quantity of wine produced, but by the company’s ability to manage the market, brand, distribution, territory, capital, and relationship with the consumer.

THE PARADOX OF ITALIAN AGRI-FOOD

The first thing to note concerns the general context.

In 2025, Italian agri-food exports exceeded 72 billion euros , growing by 5.6%.

The Made in Italy agri-food sector therefore continues to demonstrate notable international competitiveness.

Wine, however, is moving against the trend.

Wine exports reached around 8 billion euros , but recorded a decrease of 3.7% in value and 1.9% in volume.

It remains one of the main exports of Italian agri-food products, but the slowdown in recent years indicates that international growth can no longer be considered automatic.

The US market is particularly important.

The United States remains the leading destination market for Italian wine, but in 2025 sales decreased by 8.8% in value and 5.9% in volume .

Tariffs, geopolitics and changing consumer habits are increasing trade complexity.

The strategic consequence is evident:

Overdependence on a few mature markets represents a greater risk today than in the past.

Too Much Wine in the Cellar: The Problem Is Balancing Supply and Demand

This is probably the most important data of the week.

At the end of July, there were 45.6 million hectolitres of wine and must in Italian cellars , a quantity comparable to an entire national grape harvest.

55.9% of the stored wine is located in the northern regions.

Among the PDOs, Prosecco has approximately 3.2 million hectolitres of stocks .

When supply grows faster than the market’s capacity to absorb it, the inevitable consequence is prices.

The average prices of bulk PDO wines are down by around 7% , while those of common wines are down by around 19% .

Hence the debate on reducing yields, crisis distillation and, in the most extreme cases, uprooting.

But it would be reductive to interpret the problem exclusively in production terms.

Reducing supply can help rebalance the market, but it does not automatically rebuild demand.

And it is precisely on demand that the sector will have to work in the coming years.

THERE IS NO LONGER A SINGLE SOLUTION FOR ALL ITALIAN WINE

The position emerging from the main organizations in the sector is interesting.

Cooperatives, associations, and operators seem to converge on the need for increasingly selective interventions.

There is no such crisis for Prosecco, Brunello, Lambrusco, ordinary wine, Metodo Classico, or major territorial denominations.

Each area has different balances between production, inventory, price, positioning, and demand.

For this reason, the responses will have to be increasingly territorial and targeted .

Yield management, promotion, distillation, or any interventions on the vineyards must be evaluated based on the specific situation of the individual denominations.

The real question, however, remains commercial:

we need to go back to creating consumption opportunities and motivations to choose wine.

SPARKLING WINES ARE A SIGN OF A MORE DEEP CHANGE

Large-scale retail trade captures this transformation well.

In the first half of 2026, sparkling wines lost 5.4% in value , compared to a 1.2% drop in overall wine, while sparkling wines grew by 2.9%.

It doesn’t seem to be just a question of price.

The perception of the category has changed.

Sparkling wine is seen as more contemporary, festive, and aspirational, while many sparkling wines remain tied to traditional consumption patterns.

Not even promotions seem to be enough to structurally reverse the trend.

This means that for Lambrusco, Pignoletto, Bonarda, Ortrugo, Ribolla and other local products the answer cannot be simply to lower the price .

We need to redefine opportunities for consumption, communication, territory and audience.

It’s a problem that mainly concerns the relationship with the younger generations.

LIGHTER WINES, WHITE WINES AND NEW CONSUMPTION OCCASIONS

Indications about the product are also coming from the market.

There is a growing interest in fresher, more elegant, easier-to-drink wines that are compatible with changing lifestyles.

Whites appear to show a greater ability to intercept some of these transformations than many traditional reds.

Young consumers also have many more alternatives than previous generations.

Beer, spirits, cocktails, ready-to-drinks, and soft drinks compete for the same consumption occasion.

For this reason , it’s not enough to simply describe wine better: we need to understand when, how, and why consumers should drink it.

E-COMMERCE: THE ILLUSION OF “ONLINE IS ENOUGH” IS OVER

Wine e-commerce hasn’t disappeared after the pandemic.

It has become a structural channel.

But it has also become much more selective.

Selling wine online involves customer acquisition, logistics, packaging, inventory management, and promotion costs that can quickly erode margins.

Competition is therefore no longer simply based on traffic generated or the number of bottles available.

It is played on margins, logistical efficiency, loyalty and the ability to know the customer .

Specialized platforms primarily perform a demand interception function.

The winery’s owner’s website should instead have another function:

transform the occasional customer into an ongoing relationship.

This is where CRM, wine clubs, winery visits, proprietary databases, newsletters, content, events, and repurchases come into play.

Direct-to-Consumer becomes particularly interesting when it arises from an already established relationship.

A tourist visits the winery, tastes, meets the producer, buys, and then continues to order from Italy or abroad.

From this perspective , e-commerce is no longer just electronic commerce: it becomes relational export.

WINE TOURISM: TIME SPENT IN THE CELLAR BECOMES VALUE

As bottles remain in the warehouses longer, the number of people interested in experiencing the wine regions firsthand is growing.

Food and wine holidays among foreign tourists in Italy have grown significantly over the last decade.

And what emerges from the research is particularly interesting: when choosing a destination , the rural landscape can count even more than the product .

The consumer is not just looking for a tasting.

Seek territory, authenticity, history, hospitality, and quality time.

For a winery this means going through:

“sell a tasting”

to:

“build an experience within which to also sell wine.”

The possibility of staying overnight among the vineyards increases the time spent on the property and creates new purchasing opportunities.

But it also involves an important change.

When a winery offers hospitality, the customer no longer judges it only as a wine producer.

He also judges it as a hospitality facility.

Service, staff, hospitality, and quality of experience therefore become an integral part of the brand’s value.

2026 HARVEST: GOOD QUALITY, BUT PRODUCING WELL IS NOT ENOUGH

Initial indications from areas such as Conegliano, Montalcino, and Colli Tortonesi indicate an early harvest due to high temperatures, but with grapes generally in good condition and positive quality expectations.

The interesting topic, however, is not only agronomic.

The denominations are trying to find a balance between production growth and commercial capacity.

This is a fundamental step.

A good harvest does not automatically represent a good economic year.

In a market characterized by high inventories, the ability to manage supply becomes almost as important as the quality of the grapes.

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE REALLY ENTERS THE VINEYARD AND THE CELLAR

AI in wine is gradually moving from experimentation to operational applications.

Drones, images, sensors, and machine learning systems can be used to assess plant vigor, identify stress and disease, estimate plant water status, and improve irrigation.

In the cellar, artificial intelligence can integrate data relating to temperature, pH, density, sugars, oxygen and fermentation progress.

The most interesting perspective is the construction of integrated systems capable of connecting vineyard, climate, grapes, fermentation and production process .

It’s not about replacing the winemaker and the winemaker.

It’s about increasing the quality of the information on which decisions are made.

In an agriculture increasingly conditioned by climate variability, this ability could become an important competitive advantage.

NEW MARKETS: CHINA, JAPAN, AND AFRICA ARE BACK ON THE MAP

The United States’ difficulty makes geographic diversification even more important.

In the first five months of 2026, Italian exports to Japan remained substantially stable, around 99.7 million euros, while China recorded a significant 18% increase, reaching 34.1 million.

These values are still far from the weight of the United States, but they indicate that some Asian markets may once again offer opportunities.

Sub-Saharan Africa is also interesting.

The data show a young, growing and increasingly urbanized population, but wine sales are still expected to decline by 3% in 2025, while ready-to-drink and spirits are growing more.

Africa is therefore neither an easy nor immediate market .

It requires local presence, investment, cultural knowledge, distribution and above all a long-term perspective.

But precisely for this reason it could represent one of the markets to be built today with the next ten years in mind.

THE NEW GAME IS ALSO FINANCIAL: M&A AND OWNERSHIP CHANGES ARE GROWING

One of the most important signals of the week comes from outside the vineyard.

Italian wine is entering a phase of ownership reorganization .

According to the information reported in the analyzed material, approximately 1.45 billion euros of the sector’s turnover would be affected by possible changes in ownership or management .

The reasons are different.

In some cases, fund investments mature.

In others, companies need capital to grow.

In others, debt and financial difficulties make it necessary to bring in a new industrial or financial partner.

The situations of Zonin 1821, Argea and Fantini Wines , together with the recent operations involving cooperatives, represent different phenomena but point in the same direction.

The consolidation of the sector has begun.

And it probably won’t just affect big groups.

In the coming years, it could involve an increasing number of medium-sized family businesses, where generational transitions, investment needs, commercial difficulties, and the shareholders’ desire to capitalize on their existing assets intersect.

For some companies, selling will not necessarily be a sign of crisis.

It could mean joining a group capable of offering international distribution, capital, commercial organization, and greater negotiating power.

WINE TRENDS IN ITALY – Week of August 31 – September 4-2026

with:

ITALIAN WINE IS ENTERING THE “LESS, BUT BETTER” PHASE: HIGH STOCKS, DECLINED EXPORTS, BUT SPARKLING WINES, BRAND, WINE TOURISM, AND CORPORATE TRANSACTIONS ARE OPEN UP NEW OPPORTUNITIES.

The picture emerging this week is that of an Italian wine sector that has entered a phase of structural transformation.
Wineries are approaching harvest time with 42.6 million hectolitres of wine still in stock , exports are slowing, bulk prices are under pressure and some of the main international markets are showing signs of weakness.

At the same time, however, areas capable of generating value are emerging: Classic Method, Prosecco in large-scale retail trade, producer brands, wine tourism, cellar catering, new markets and corporate mergers .

The message for the sector is therefore increasingly clear: the future will not be determined only by the quantity produced, but by the ability of companies to sell better, build margins, strengthen the brand, diversify revenues and have a size and organisation appropriate to the market .

1. STOCKS: 42.6 MILLION HECTOLITERS BEFORE THE NEW HARVEST

At the end of July, 42.6 million hectolitres of wine were stored in Italian cellars.

Compared to June, inventories decreased by 8.6%, a normal trend in the pre-harvest phase. The most significant figure, however, emerges from the year-on-year comparison: compared to July 31, 2025, inventories are 6.9% higher , with over 2.7 million hectoliters added.

PDO and PGI represent over 80% of the stocks: approximately 23.5 million hectolitres of PDO and 11 million of PGI .

Veneto alone accounts for about a quarter of Italian wine in storage, with over 10.2 million hectoliters, followed by Tuscany, Puglia, Emilia-Romagna, and Piedmont.

Among the denominations, Prosecco has the largest stocks, with approximately 3.24 million hectolitres.

The point is therefore not simply how much wine will be produced in 2026. The central question is how much product the market will be able to absorb while guaranteeing adequate profitability for the supply chain .

2. 2026 HARVEST: THE RISK IS PRODUCING MORE THAN THE MARKET CAN ABSORB

Italian production in 2026 is estimated at around 40 million hectolitres , a level that could keep Italy at the top of the world in terms of quantity.

At this time, however, being the first producer does not necessarily represent an advantage.

High inventories are meeting a slower market and are increasing pressure on prices.

In June, the average prices of DOC wines fell by 7%, while for common wines the drop reached 19%.

Tensions are also rising over grape prices in some production areas. In Valpolicella, fresh grape prices are reported to be lower than producers’ expectations, while in Piedmont, Moscato, Dolcetto, and Barbera d’Asti are being closely monitored.

With high production costs and agricultural prices under pressure, in some situations the loss of profitability per hectare can become significant.

The 2026 harvest therefore raises a fundamental question: does it still make sense to measure the strength of Italian wine primarily by the hectoliters produced?

More and more likely, no.

3. ITALIAN EXPORTS: UNDER €3 BILLION IN THE FIRST FIVE MONTHS

In the first five months of 2026, Italian wine exports stood at approximately 2.98 billion euros , a 6.9% decrease compared to the same period in 2025.

Volumes decrease by more than 5%.

The bottled wine segment is particularly difficult, losing 9.6% in value between January and May.

Sparkling wines are showing greater staying power: the overall value remains substantially stable at around 876 million euros.

Within the category, however, performances are mixed. Prosecco DOP declined by 2.2%, while Asti grew by 35%, and other DOP sparkling wine categories, both varietal and common, maintained positive figures.

The difficulty concerns both EU and non-EU markets.

The United States , the largest market for Italian wine, saw a 15.5% decline in value in the first five months. Germany and the United Kingdom also recorded negative figures.

However, some markets are emerging that go against the trend: China 18%, Brazil 15.2%, Russia 17.5% , while Canada remains substantially stable.

The geography of exports must therefore be rethought. Excessive dependence on a few mature markets is becoming a risk.

4. CHINA: LESS EUROPEAN WINE, BUT IT DOESN’T MEAN ABANDONING THE MARKET

China continues to be one of the most complex markets.

In the first six months of 2026, Chinese imports of bottled wine from the European Union decreased by 16.6% in volume and 7.9% in value .

For Italy, the indicated decrease reaches 17.7%.

Daily wine consumption continues to be less deeply rooted in the Chinese market, and even the segment of fine collectible wines has lost some of the momentum of past years.

This very situation, however, is generating an interesting secondary market: large collections accumulated in previous years are becoming available again, creating opportunities for European operators and collectors.

At the same time, Hong Kong continues to represent an important platform for Asian fine wine and could offer space for great mature and collectible Italian wines.

China, therefore, should not simply be classified as a growth or crisis market: it requires much more selective strategies in terms of product, price range and distribution channel .

5. UNITED STATES: LESS ALCOHOL, BUT WINE RETAINS ITS AUDIENCE

In the United States, only 54% of adults report drinking alcohol , the lowest level Gallup has recorded since 1939.

In 2023, the percentage was still 62%.

At the same time, there is growing attention to health and moderation.

However, another interesting fact for the wine sector is: among those who consume alcohol, the preference for wine remains around 30% , substantially stable compared to previous years.

Wine also maintains a particularly strong position among consumers over 55 and among women.

At the same time, the no/low alcohol phenomenon is growing.

The American market is therefore not simply abandoning wine: it is changing the occasions, frequency and methods of consumption .

6. Large-scale retail trade: wine prices are falling, bubbles are rising

In the Italian large-scale retail trade, the overall wine market recorded, in the twelve months ending in July 2026, sales of 414 million litres , down 3.4%, and a value of approximately 1.8 billion euros , down 1.2%.

Within this scenario, however, the strength of the bubbles clearly emerges.

Sparkling wines grew by 1% in volume and 1.2% in value.

Prosecco reaches around 40 million litres, growing by 3.8%, while the most significant data concerns the Italian Classic Method , which records:

7.6% in volume and 6.2% in value.

Franciacorta, Trentodoc, and other Metodo Classico wines are therefore capturing a demand that is more oriented toward quality and value.

The growth of bag-in-box is also interesting, 1.3% in volume and 4.7% in value.

Private labels, on the other hand, are in sharp decline: -5.4% in volume and -5% in value .

This is an important signal.

In a phase in which the consumer buys less wine, the producer, the brand, the territory and the recognition once again have greater weight in the purchasing decision .

7. SPARKLING WINES: A CATEGORY IN SEARCH OF A NEW IDENTITY

Sparkling wine is in a more complex situation.

For years it has represented the meeting point between still and sparkling wine: informal, accessible and suitable for everyday consumption.

Today this space is increasingly occupied by competitive Charmat sparkling wines.

In the first quarter of 2026, exports of Italian sparkling wines recorded a 12.5% decrease in value , accompanied by a reduction in average prices.

Germany and the United States continue to generate around 40% of the value of exports, but Austria, the Czech Republic and Slovakia are growing.

A new commercial geography is therefore taking shape, more concentrated on continental and Eastern Europe.

For sparkling wines, the challenge will not only be to recover volumes, but to redefine positioning, identity and consumption occasions .

8. BULK WINE: THE GLOBAL MARKET SLOWS DOWN

The slowdown doesn’t just concern packaged wine.

In the first quarter of 2026, world bulk wine exports decreased by 18.8% in value , stopping at 566 million euros, and by 18.9% in volume , to 7.1 million hectolitres.

Italy remains among the world’s leading operators, but in the twelve months ending in March it recorded a contraction of 11.3% in value and 13.3% in volume.

This phenomenon confirms that the reduction in demand is not affecting a single segment of the market: it is affecting a significant part of the international supply chain.

9. WINE TOURISM: FROM TASTING TO EXPERIENCE

As the traditional market slows, the importance of the direct relationship between winery and consumer grows.

Tuscany offers an interesting indication.

September accounts for 16.3% of annual visits to Tuscan wineries , compared to a national average of 14.8%.

In 2025, the average value of a wine tourism booking in Tuscany reached 153 euros , compared to 117 euros in 2023: approximately 31% more in two years.

The average spending per visitor rose from 39 to 45 euros.

The audience is strongly international: only 36% of visitors are Italian and over 70% of the experiences are also offered in English.

Consumers no longer seek just a tasting. They seek territory, story, vineyard, harvest, gastronomy, culture, and a direct relationship with the winemaker .

10. CELLAR RESTAURANT: WINE BECOMES A DESTINATION

The growth of wine tourism is leading many companies to invest directly in catering.

Restaurants, hospitality, resorts, events, and gastronomic experiences are no longer simply complementary services.

For some companies, they are becoming real business lines capable of increasing the margins of direct sales, strengthening the brand and transforming the winery into a destination .

The economic model of the winery therefore tends to expand:

wine direct sales hospitality catering territory experience.

It is probably one of the most important transformations underway in the sector.

11. THE JOB MARKET IS CHANGING: THE “SUPER SALESMAN” IS NO LONGER ENOUGH

The professional skills required by companies are also changing.

The trade slowdown is increasing the demand for people capable not only of selling, but of building markets, managing distribution channels and developing international commercial strategies .

At the same time, the importance of hospitality skills is growing, because wine tourism isn’t simply about selling a few bottles after a tasting.

It means building customer loyalty, reputation, and creating a direct relationship between consumer and brand.

For many wineries, the real need will therefore be to move from a predominantly productive culture to a more commercial and managerial culture.

12. WINE M&A: 1.45 BILLION IN TURNOVER POTENTIALLY IN MOVEMENT

Another significant signal concerns the ownership structures.

According to the information reported in the analyzed material, at least six-seven important Italian wine companies , which together represent a turnover of approximately 1.45 billion euros , could face significant changes in governance in the next 6-12 months.

Funds, industrial investors, new partners, mergers and acquisitions could therefore become increasingly present in the sector.

It’s not just about finance.

Structural problems lie behind many operations: generational transitions, capital needs, export development, growth, insufficient sales networks, and the need for managerial skills.

For this reason , M&A and mergers can become one of the tools through which Italian wine faces the new market phase .

2026 Harvest in Italy: Drought Reduces Harvest, But Inventories Are Worrying Italian Wine

with:

Fewer grapes in the vineyards due to heat and water stress, while 42.6 million hectoliters of wine remain in the cellars. Exports remain negative, prices are under pressure, and consortia are forced to reduce yields.

The paradox of the 2026 harvest: for some Italian wine, producing less could help maintain value and profitability.
The 2026 harvest in Italy presents a paradox that until a few years ago would have seemed difficult even to imagine: a lower production could represent, at least from an economic point of view, not entirely bad news for the wine sector .

Drought, high temperatures, and water stress are impacting grape weight and yields in several areas. But the issue most worrying producers and wineries doesn’t seem to be how much wine Italy will be able to produce in 2026.

The real question is another: how much wine can the market absorb today?

Because the new harvest arrives while Italian cellars still hold 42.6 million hectoliters of wine , 6.9% more than in the same period in 2025, to which must be added 3.1 million hectoliters of must.

At the same time, exports remain in negative territory, prices for numerous categories are under pressure, and several denominations have already decided to reduce yields.

The 2026 harvest therefore risks being remembered not so much for the quantity harvested, but for having highlighted a now structural issue in Italian wine:

It’s no longer enough to produce well. We must produce what the market is willing to buy and pay for.

An early harvest due to the heat

The 2026 harvest started in several Italian areas around 8-10 days early , especially for the early varieties and for the bases intended for sparkling wine production.

From Sicily to Oltrepò Pavese, from Franciacorta to the other wine-growing areas, high temperatures have accelerated ripening.

According to the indications that emerged in the first weeks of the harvest, the quality of the grapes appears generally good and in some areas very promising.

However, it is more difficult to formulate a reliable quantitative forecast.

Precisely for this reason , the Italian Wine Union, Assoenologi and Ismea have decided in 2026 not to present the traditional national harvest forecast , postponing the evaluation until the final data are available once the harvest is concluded.

A significant decision, which calls for caution given the quantitative estimates circulating in recent weeks.

Drought and high temperatures reduce the weight of the bunches

The main problem in the vineyards is the combination of heat and water availability .

The drought affected different regions differently, even in very close areas. Where water stress was greatest, vines faced difficult conditions precisely during crucial stages of ripening.

Added to this are high night temperatures and, in some areas, little temperature difference between day and night .

The result can be a greater concentration of the grapes, dehydration phenomena and above all a reduction in the average weight of the bunches .

In other words, apparently full vineyards may yield, at harvest time, quantities lower than expected.

The drought will therefore likely contribute to containing domestic production.

But that might not be enough.

And this is where the real paradox of the 2026 harvest arises.

The problem is not only how much we harvest, but how much wine we already have in the cellar

To understand the situation, we need to look beyond the vineyards.

As of July 31, 2026 , according to the Icqrf “Cantina Italia” report, Italian cellars contained:

42.6 million hectoliters of wine ,
3.1 million hectolitres of must ,
in addition to approximately 42,000 hectolitres of new wine still fermenting .

Wine stocks alone were 6.9% higher than on July 31, 2025 .

It is a huge mass that must be progressively marketed just as the product of the new harvest enters the cellars.

Over half of the stored wine is PDO and 55.9% of national stocks are concentrated in the northern regions , with Veneto accounting for a particularly significant share.

The problem, therefore, does not only concern some marginal productions.

It directly involves important territories and denominations of Italian wine.

Prosecco alone represents almost a tenth of the stocks

One piece of data helps to understand how complex the issue is.

Prosecco DOC alone represents 9.4% of the total inventory , with approximately 3.2 million hectoliters. The main categories held by wineries are Toscana and Puglia PGI, Chianti DOCG, Montepulciano d’Abruzzo, Terre Siciliane PGI, Sicilia DOC, Salento PGI, Veneto PGI, and Delle Venezie DOC.

This does not automatically mean that all these denominations are in commercial crisis.

Stocks must be read in relation to the refinement times, the size of the denominations and their rotation speed.

But the overall data clearly indicates that the new harvest enters a system that already has very significant quantities of product available .

And when supply grows faster than demand, the economic consequence is inevitable: it increases pressure on prices.

Wine prices under pressure

The phenomenon is already visible in the bulk market.

In the first five months of 2026, according to data from the Unione Italiana Vini Observatory, prices recorded a drop of 6% for PDO wines, 7% for PGI wines and 14.4% for common wines .

Even more significant is the phenomenon of downgrades .

Some of the wine is reclassified into commercially easier-to-place categories: from DOCG to DOC, from DOC to IGT, or, in some cases, to ordinary wine.

It is a strategy that allows you to free up product, but it comes at a clear cost.

It is sold, but part of the value built by the denomination is destroyed.

And this is precisely one of the greatest risks of the current situation.

Exports 2026: Some improvements, but the trend remains negative.

Added to the pressure of inventory is a second factor: the difficulty of international markets.

In the first four months of 2026, Italian wine exports reached approximately 2.33 billion euros , registering a 6.8% decrease in value compared to the same period in 2025.

Volumes also decreased, reaching approximately 640.7 million litres, -3.7% .

There are signs of a gradual recovery from the sharp decline recorded at the beginning of the year, but the picture remains complex.

The situation in the United States , the leading foreign market for Italian wine, remains particularly delicate, where in the first four months of the year the value of exports was still down by 15.4%.

This means that the traditional safety valve represented by exports, at least for the moment, is unable to completely absorb the pressure on supply.

The winemaker’s paradox: hoping to harvest less

This is probably the most interesting aspect of the 2026 harvest.

For generations, a bountiful harvest has been considered synonymous with prosperity.

More quintals meant greater potential revenue.

Today this equation is no longer necessarily valid.

If the market cannot absorb the product, increased production can become a problem: it increases inventories, reduces the producer’s bargaining power, and further compresses prices.

This is why drought produces a seemingly contradictory effect.

From an agricultural point of view it certainly represents a problem.

From an economic perspective, a moderate reduction in production could help at least partially ease supply pressure.

But relying on the climate to rebalance the market would clearly be an absurd strategy.

The sector must intervene sooner.

Consortia begin to reduce yields

And that’s exactly what’s happening.

In several Italian denominations, measures have been adopted to reduce yields, manage the quantities that can be claimed, or resort to storage , with the aim of realigning supply with demand.

Interventions have been adopted or discussed in important areas of Veneto, Tuscany, Piedmont, Marche and Abruzzo , involving denominations such as Valpolicella, Delle Venezie, Barbera d’Asti, Langhe, Soave, Chianti, Chianti Classico and other areas.

The economic principle is simple:

less quantity, greater possibility of defending the value.

But this solution also has limitations.

Reducing the yield of a single denomination does not necessarily mean eliminating that quantity from the market.

In fact, when permitted by production rules, grapes can be destined for different categories.

The risk is therefore that of moving excess production from one denomination to another, without truly solving the overall problem.

Italian wine must decide how much it wants to produce

The 2026 harvest therefore brings to light an issue that goes far beyond this single campaign.

What is the sustainable production level for Italian wine today?

Not only from an agronomic point of view.

From an economic point of view.

For many years the goal has been to increase production, conquer new markets and increase exports.

That phase contributed enormously to the international success of Italian wine.

Today, however, the context is changing.

Consumers are drinking less wine on average, are more selective, are increasingly concerned about price, and are changing the occasions and ways in which they consume it.

The international market has also become more competitive and geopolitically less predictable.

Continuing to think exclusively in terms of hectolitres produced therefore risks becoming dangerous.

From quantity to value

The central question should not simply be:

“How much wine will Italy produce in 2026?”

The most strategically important question is:

“How much value will each bottle produced generate?”

This is a fundamental difference.

The future of Italian wine probably does not depend on achieving new production records, but on the ability to increase the average value of production .

This means working simultaneously on several fronts: brand positioning, more diversified exports, direct sales, wine tourism, hospitality, new consumers, product innovation, and greater company sales capacity.

Above all, it means preventing wine from simply becoming an agricultural commodity.

Because Italy will hardly be able to win the international competition on price.

Instead, it can continue to win on territory, denomination, quality, history, producer and brand .

Wineries and vineyards: profitability becomes the real emergency

Behind the harvest numbers there is finally an even more important issue: the producers’ income .

A vineyard can be perfectly cared for, produce excellent grapes, and still find itself in financial difficulty if the price paid does not adequately cover production costs.

And this is the risk that the sector must avoid.

Because a prolonged profitability crisis doesn’t just produce negative balance sheets.

It produces something much more difficult to recover:

the abandonment of the vineyards.

When cultivation is no longer economically sustainable, especially in the most difficult and expensive areas, the producer first reduces investments and may subsequently decide to abandon it.

At that point, not only does he lose the agricultural business.

He loses his territory.

Wine Trends in Italy – Week of August 24–28-2026

with:

Italian wine is entering the harvest season facing a challenge that is no longer limited to production: supply, demand, and value must be rebalanced.

This week confirms even more clearly the structural change that Italian wine is undergoing.
The 2026 harvest started early in many areas, the quality of the grapes appears interesting overall, but the real problem is not how much wine we will be able to produce: it is how much wine the market is actually able to absorb and at what price .

High inventories, pressure on grape prices, more selective consumption, export difficulties, and production costs continue to squeeze profitability. At the same time, however, successful markets and models are emerging: sparkling wines, Metodo Classico, direct sales, wine tourism, premium experiences, and wineries’ ability to build direct relationships with consumers.

This week’s message is therefore quite clear: Italian wine must not simply produce less. It must produce, position, and sell better.

1. 2026 Harvest: The real problem is the stocks

The early harvest reflects the increasingly evident effects of climate change. Heat and drought have accelerated ripening in several Italian regions, and in some traditionally later-ripening areas, harvesting began as early as the first half of August.

But the supply chain’s attention is mainly focused on stocks.

The sources collected in the analyzed material report figures that are not entirely consistent: 42.6 million hectoliters of wine according to Cantine Italia-Icqrf, or 45.6 million hectoliters considering wine and must . Regardless of the different calculation bases, the signal is the same: Italy is approaching the new harvest with heavily loaded warehouses.
The consequence is increasing pressure on prices. In June, bulk DOC wines averaged 1.57 euros/liter, down 7% , while for common wines the drop reached 19% .

According to UIV, under current market conditions, a national production of around 35-38 million hectoliters would be more sustainable. The issue, therefore, no longer concerns only the 2026 harvest, but the need to plan supply for subsequent years.

2. Appellations begin to reduce yields

An initial response is coming from the Consortia.

Several important denominations have decided to intervene on yields: Brunello di Montalcino -12.5%, Chianti Classico -13.3%, Valpolicella -16.7%, Soave -10%, Pinot Grigio delle Venezie -11.1%, Asti DOCG -15%, up to Verdicchio di Jesi with a reduction of 21.4%.

This is an important signal because it shows that part of the system has understood that continuing to produce volumes not absorbed by the market inevitably means destroying value .

However, a problem remains: reducing the yield allocated to the DOC doesn’t necessarily mean reducing the entire vineyard production, because some of the grapes can be allocated to other categories. Hence the discussion about the need for more effective planning tools.

3. Grape prices: the alarm goes straight to the vineyards

The supply crisis is transferring its effects to the most exposed link in the supply chain: the winemaker.

In Valpolicella, very low prices are reported, with offers for grapes destined for Amarone even in the range of 1.20-1.30 euro/kg , while more economically correct levels between 1.50 and 1.80 euro are indicated.

The loss of profitability per hectare can exceed 35% . To limit supply, the Valpolicella Wine Consortium has decided to store 172,280 quintals, equal to 20% of production , effectively reducing availability from 100 to 80 quintals per hectare.

The problem isn’t limited to Veneto. Signs of tension are also coming from Piedmont and especially Puglia, where producers and organizations are calling for action on surpluses and greater control over supply.

Defending the value of grapes today means defending the entire supply chain.

4. Large-scale retail trade: less wine, but sparkling wines continue to grow

A very interesting signal is coming from the domestic market.

In the twelve months ending in July 2026, Italian large-scale retail trade sold 414 million litres of wine, -3.4% , for a value of 1.8 billion euros, -1.2% .

Value therefore falls much less than volume: further confirmation of the trend towards quantitatively lower but more quality-oriented consumption.

The bubbles, however, continue to move against the trend:

Sparkling wines 1% by volume and 1.2% by value; Prosecco 3.8% by volume; Italian Classic Method 7.6% by volume and 6.2% by value.

The decline in private labels is also particularly significant: -5.4% in volume and -5% in value . In a period in which consumers are choosing more carefully, the manufacturer’s brand appears to be regaining increasing importance.

5. As the consumer changes, the way of producing wine also changes

The transformation is not just about how much wine is consumed, but what wine is sought .

Freshness, drinkability, aromatic clarity, and lighter styles are also influencing winery investments. The material analyzed shows a growing international preference for stainless steel tanks over wood.

By 2025, steel would have accounted for 42.5% of global wine tanks and 85% of purchases by wineries. The winery tank market, valued at $1.8 billion in 2025, could reach $2.7 billion by 2034.

This is an industrial signal that shouldn’t be underestimated: changing consumption patterns are reaching the cellar, altering production and technological choices.

6. It’s not just Gen Z who are drinking less

Another cliché is being debunked: attributing the decline in consumption exclusively to young people.

The American analysis cited in the material shows a much more complex phenomenon. Among 21- to 29-year-olds, participation in consumption remains around 75%, but the intensity decreases: average weekly consumption drops from 6.5 to 4.5, about 30% less .

Even among adult generations, however, participation and attendance tend to progressively decrease.

The real challenge for wine, beer and spirits therefore becomes recreating consumption opportunities , in a market in which they compete not only with each other, but with functional drinks, non-alcoholic alternatives, entertainment and many other destinations of available spending.

For wine, this means returning to being contemporary without losing culture, territory, and identity.

7. Wine tourism: consumers are looking for people, not just bottles

One of the most positive signs of the week comes from wine tourism.

In 2026, Italian wine tourists are estimated to be around 18 million , compared to 13.4 million in 2024.

But the most interesting data is qualitative: the most popular experience is no longer simply tasting. 27% indicate a visit to a family-run winery .

Tourists want to know who produces the wine, hear their story, see the vineyard, understand the territory and have an authentic experience.

For 68% of those interviewed, the staff’s hospitality and professionalism are key factors in returning to a winery; 66% also consider the wines’ reputation and ease of booking.

However, a significant gap emerges here: 42% still encounter difficulties in booking online , while bookings made during the trip via digital platforms are rapidly growing.

Even more significant is the digital divide: wineries represent 1.3% of the points of interest surveyed in wine tourism destinations but generate just 0.4% of digital traces , despite a very high sentiment of 94.7/100 .

In other words: those who visit Italian wineries appreciate them greatly, but many wineries are still too little visible and talked about in the digital world and, increasingly, in AI-based search systems.

8. Wine tourism won’t save wine, but it can significantly improve margins

It would be wrong to think that wine tourism could absorb millions of hectoliters of surplus wine.

But direct sales, tastings, catering and hospitality allow companies to sell value rather than just bottles .

According to reported data, Italian wine tourism is worth over 3.1 billion euros , with a 9.2% growth rate. However, in Italian wineries, only one in ten bottles is sold to tourists, compared to one in five in France and two in three in the United States.

The margin for growth is therefore considerable.

The point isn’t to transform every farm into a resort. It’s to better utilize what many wineries already possess: the land, vineyards, history, family, architecture, landscape, cuisine, and direct customer relationships.

9. Premium and luxury: what grows most is what becomes an experience

The luxury market also offers interesting indications for high-end wine.

Global luxury is expected to see moderate growth of around 2% through 2026, while the experiences segment could grow by around 4% .

The premium consumer appears to be gradually shifting their focus from simple ownership to authentic, personalized, and culturally meaningful experiences. Bookings for immersive experiences have increased by 30% , while trips to lesser-known and more authentic destinations have increased by 20%.
For mid- to high-end wineries, this is a clear strategic recommendation: a premium bottle alone is no longer enough. It must be embedded in a universe of territory, culture, hospitality, and meaning.

Style Selector
Select the layout
Choose the theme
Preset colors
No Preset
Select the pattern