A positive harvest, cellars still full and international markets to be rethought.
The week returns the image of a two-speed Italian wine.
On the one hand, the 2026 harvest is starting with encouraging signs of quality in many areas. On the other, wineries are approaching the new harvest with still-high inventories, more selective consumption, and a sharply contracting US market .
We’re not just facing a difficult business environment. The sector is entering a phase in which it becomes necessary to rebalance production and demand, protect the value of bottles, diversify markets, and rethink the relationship with consumers .
Alongside these critical issues, however, interesting signs are emerging: Brazil is growing, the fine wine market is showing an initial recovery, the reputation of European agri-food remains strong, and technological innovation continues to transform the supply chain.
1. 2026 harvest: good quality, but the problem is the stocks
From the Aosta Valley to Sicily, the harvest of early varieties and sparkling wine bases has generally started well, with the average harvest indicated in the text at least ten days early and the quality considered satisfactory, despite some critical climatic issues in the area.
The real point of attention, however, is what the wineries already have in the tanks.
As of July 31 , over 23.5 million hectoliters of PDO wines and over 10.9 million hectoliters of PGI wines were in stock. The regions with the largest PDO stocks include Veneto with approximately 6.93 million hectoliters, Tuscany with 3.39 million, Piedmont with 2.96 million, Trentino-Alto Adige with 1.49 million, and Sicily with 1.47 million.
The point
A good harvest is not enough if the product of the previous campaign has not been absorbed by the market.
For many companies, the strategic problem of the coming period will therefore be less “how much to produce” and increasingly “how much and how to sell” .
2. Climate: early harvests and yields under pressure
Climate change continues to have a significant impact on viticulture.
The case of San Marino reported this week is particularly significant: high temperatures and very little rainfall have caused stress in the vineyards, with a forecast indicating up to 40% fewer grapes than in 2025 , despite the presence of high quality expectations.
The theme goes far beyond a single vintage.
Drought, water management, soil organic matter, varietals, agronomic techniques, and irrigation infrastructure are becoming key factors in the economic competitiveness of wineries.
3. United States: the main market for Italian wine remains in difficulty
Probably the most important data of the week comes from the United States.
In the first half of 2026, US wine imports decreased by 25.2% in value , stopping at around 2.4 billion euros , while volumes fell by 16.8% , to 536.8 million liters.
Italy remains central, but is also suffering from the contraction: 790.8 million euros of wine imported from the USA by Italy, -25% , while in volume our country remains the leading supplier with 170.2 million litres, -9.8% .
The data for Italian sparkling wines is particularly significant: 255.3 million euros, -18.4% , and 60.6 million litres, down 9%.
But June shows some signs of stabilization
The American picture remains negative, but the second quarter shows a slowdown in the decline.
According to data reported by SipSource, wine sales fell by 4.6% , while on-premise sales—restaurants, hotels, and clubs—remained almost stable, with a decline of just 1%, compared to a 5.5% decline in retail.
Also interesting is the greater stability of imported wines, particularly Italian and French, Champagne, sparkling wines and white wines .
The American market has therefore not yet reversed course , but some indicators suggest that the decline could gradually ease.
4. Brazil: a market to follow very carefully
If the United States slows down, it becomes even more important to identify new growth markets.
Brazil is one of the most interesting signals.
In the first half of 2026, Brazilian imports reached 79.4 million liters, 9.1%, for 234.3 million euros, 5.9% .
Italy is also growing: exports reach 19.7 million euros, a 7.2% increase, while volumes rise to 4.8 million liters, a 2.2% increase. Italy ranks fifth in value but third in volume among suppliers to the Brazilian market.
Even more interesting is the long-term perspective: between 2015 and 2025, Brazil recorded very significant growth in wine imports, both in value and volume.
The signal for Italian wineries
Dependence on a few large export markets is becoming a risk.
Brazil and other emerging markets cannot yet replace the United States, but they can become a second growth line in which to invest today to reap results in the coming years .
5. Fine wines: first signs of recovery, with Tuscany leading the way
After a long downturn, the international investment wine market appears to be showing the first signs of recovery.
According to the analysis reported by Cult Wine Investment, the market bottomed out in February 2026, subsequently recording price increases for four consecutive months.
The most interesting element concerns Italy.
In the first half of 2026, Tuscany recorded 1.52% , while Piedmont remained slightly negative at -0.36%. Champagne recorded 0.63%, Rhone 0.35%, and Bordeaux 0.29%.
The recovery, however, does not involve all the major labels uniformly: it is above all some strong or emerging wines that are supporting the recovery.
This suggests that even in the premium segment , awareness alone no longer automatically guarantees revaluation and demand .
6. Wine prices: the entire supply chain must return to reckoning with the consumer
One of the most interesting debates of the week concerns the final price of the bottle.
Luca Cuzziol, one of Italy’s leading distributors of quality wine, raises a very concrete question: producers, distributors, and restaurateurs must question the sustainability of prices.
The problem cannot be attributed to a single link in the supply chain.
After Covid, some price lists increased significantly, while restaurants, distribution, and production simultaneously attempted to protect their margins. The result can be a bottle of wine reaching consumers at a price the market no longer deems consistent with its perceived value.
The message is simple: a wine can be excellent, but if the consumer does not recognize the value of its price it becomes commercially difficult to sell .
7. European wine retains an enormous capital: its reputation
Not all international indications are negative.
European agri-food continues to enjoy a very high reputation on non-EU markets.
According to the survey cited in the text, conducted among over 11,000 consumers in 11 countries, 83% consider European products to be of good quality, 82% tasty, and 81% safe . Furthermore, 57% often or always check the country of origin of their food.
For Italian wine this represents an important competitive capital.
Made in Italy doesn’t start from scratch: it already has reputation, territory, history, perceived quality, and recognizability. The challenge is to transform these values into demand, distribution, consumer relations, and sales .
8. New vineyards: does it still make sense to increase production capacity?
While wineries have to manage significant stocks, Legacoop Agroalimentare draws attention to a strategic issue: the system would allow the planting of almost 7,000 new hectares of vineyards every year.
The Legacoop Wine Coordination Committee is calling for a temporary suspension of new plantings, along with increased liquidity resources for cooperatives.
The reasoning stems from the intersection of several phenomena: climate change, uncertain international markets, changing consumer habits, and growing pressure on corporate profitability.
This is a question the sector will have to seriously address: in a phase of weaker demand, automatically increasing production area can aggravate imbalances rather than resolve them .
9. Innovation: Europe and the New World take different paths
Even on the technological front, the world of wine is changing.
A study published in 2026 in the Journal of Wine Economics , based on the analysis of 9,439 patents filed between 1970 and 2023 in 53 countries , highlights two patterns.
Europe is moving toward greater technological convergence, especially in winemaking machinery, monitoring systems, and quality control.
In the New World, the opposite is happening: technological diversification is growing, especially in engineering, digital technologies, and advanced production and control systems.
Future competition will therefore not only concern terroir, denominations and wine quality, but also innovation capacity, production efficiency, data and technological differentiation .
Italian wine is seeking a new balance: too many inventories, declining exports, and lower production. But wine tourism continues to grow: 42.6 million hectoliters of wine remain in Italian cellars, exports down 6.9% in the first five months of 2026, reduced yields in numerous appellations, and a harvest that arrives while the market struggles to absorb production.
Wine tourism, which now involves approximately 18 million Italians, bucks the trend.
This week’s message is clear: the wine sector must produce more in line with demand and shift its focus from volumes to value creation.
This week’s figure: 42.6 million hectoliters still in the cellar
The most important photograph comes from Cantina Italia , the ICQRF bulletin processed through the electronic registers.
As of July 31, 2026, there were 42.6 million hectolitres of wine in Italian wineries, to which were added approximately 3.1 million hectolitres of must and over 42,000 hectolitres of new wine still fermenting.
The most significant figure is the comparison with a year earlier: wine stocks are 6.9% higher than on 31 July 2025 .
This data was also confirmed by the findings published this week based on the latest ICQRF report.
Compared to June, the situation has improved, with a monthly reduction in inventories of 8.6%, but the annual comparison remains the real alarm bell.
In other words, cellars are emptying, but not fast enough .
And this is happening just as the 2026 harvest is gradually getting into full swing.
Where is the wine found?
55.9% of the stocks are concentrated in the Northern regions , with Veneto in a predominant position.
The composition of the stocks also shows the weight of certified productions:
55.4% DOP wines
25.8% PGI wines
1.7% varietal wines
17.1% other wines
Even more significant is the level of concentration: just 20 denominations out of the 523 registered represent 57.6% of the total stock of wines with Geographical Indication .
Prosecco DOC alone represents approximately 9.4% of stocks , with 3.2 million hectolitres.
They are followed by IGP Toscana and Puglia, Chianti DOCG, Montepulciano d’Abruzzo, Terre Siciliane IGP, Sicilia DOC, Salento IGP, Veneto IGP and Delle Venezie DOC.
The problem isn’t having wine in the cellar. It’s how quickly it goes.
Inventories, taken in isolation, do not necessarily indicate a crisis.
The problem arises when production, sales and inventory turnover rate are no longer balanced .
And this is precisely the point that the sector will have to question itself on in the coming months.
Exports: nearly 3 billion euros, but 2026 remains negative
The second signal comes from international markets.
In the first five months of 2026, Italy exported wine worth approximately 2.98 billion euros , registering a contraction of 6.86% compared to the same period in 2025 .
Volumes also decreased: 809.1 million litres , approximately 5% less than in the first five months of last year.
The issue becomes particularly delicate when looking at the three main Italian wine markets.
United States
They remain the first international market, with approximately 709 million euros , but the value of exports records a heavy:
-15.4%.
Volumes fall by 6%.
This means that we are not only losing bottles sold: the average value generated by the American market is also decreasing .
Germany
Second largest market in the world for Italian wine:
439.1 million euros , with a decrease of 8.2% .
Volumes decreased by 9.3%.
United Kingdom
Exports reached 278.5 million euros , down 6.5% , while volumes fell by 6.6%.
Not all markets, however, are going in the same direction.
Interesting signals are coming from:
China 18%
Brazil 15.2%
Russia 17.4%
while Canada remains essentially stable.
The message for wineries: diversification becomes essential
For many years, a significant portion of Italian exports relied on a few large markets.
2026 is showing how risky this addiction can become.
The United States will continue to be key, as will Germany and the United Kingdom.
But an international strategy built on three or four markets is no longer sufficient .
Asia, Latin America, Canada and other emerging markets must gradually enter companies’ business planning.
Not to replace the United States, but to reduce dependence on a single market .
2026 Harvest: Italy Begins to Produce Less
With cellars still full of product, several areas have chosen to intervene before the arrival of the new harvest.
Tuscany, Piedmont, Veneto, Marche and Abruzzo, together with numerous Consortia, are adopting or evaluating yield reductions, storage and other forms of production containment .
The initiatives concern important denominations, from the Chianti system to Valpolicella, from Soave to the Piedmontese denominations up to the territories of Abruzzo and Marche.
The logic is simple:
If demand slows, continuing to increase supply risks further compressing prices and margins.
For years, a part of the sector has thought mainly in terms of production.
Today we need to reverse the reasoning:
We must not only ask ourselves how much we can produce, but how much the market is willing to buy and at what price.
The Puglia case: 5 million unsold hectoliters
The most delicate situation probably emerges from Puglia.
According to data reported by CIA Puglia based on Cantina Italia, there are at least 5 million hectolitres of unsold wine in regional cellars.
Even more significant: over 3 million hectolitres belong to the IGP and DOP categories .
We are therefore not faced with a problem limited to generic wines.
The pressure also affects production linked to denominations and territorial identity.
The excess availability is impacting the prices of grapes and wine, with consequences for the profitability of winemakers and wineries.
Among the proposals put forward, the following stand out:
Targeted crisis distillation, varietal reconversion, voluntary uprooting of less profitable vineyards, greater aggregation of supply, investments in irrigation, internationalization, and greater valorization of native grape varieties.
The Apulian case probably anticipates a theme destined to become national:
produce less where the market no longer absorbs and invest more where there is demand.
We need a national supply policy
The debate is now also reaching a political level.
Among the hypotheses put forward is that of managing new plant authorizations differently, favoring territories and denominations that demonstrate concrete growth potential.
At the same time, a more effective management of abandoned vineyards is proposed, encouraging their acquisition, uprooting, or reconversion.
This is a major change.
Because it means moving from a predominantly agricultural policy to a true industrial wine policy .
The vineyard area should not grow automatically.
It should grow where there is a market, positioning and economic prospects.
Not all vineyards create the same value
Another piece of news this week helps us understand how important it is to go beyond simple volume thinking.
The ranking drawn up by the American Association of Wine Economists , based on FADN-FSDN data from the European Commission for 2024, analyses the net added value generated per hectare of vineyard .
Champagne-Ardenne dominates with around 60,000 euros per hectare .
But immediately behind we find two Italian territories:
South Tyrol – approximately €32,100/ha
Aosta Valley – approximately €32,000/ha
Burgundy, Liguria, Luxembourg, Galicia and Piedmont follow.
The interesting aspect is not only the ranking.
It is the economic principle that emerges.
A hectare of vineyard is not only worth what it produces.
It’s about how much value it can generate.
Then the following come into play:
price of wine;
identity of the denomination;
positioning;
production costs;
commercial capacity;
direct sales;
hospitality;
farmhouse;
notoriety of the territory.
It is also an important indication for those evaluating acquisitions of wineries and vineyards .
The real estate value of the land and the economic capacity of the company are two different things.
The great countertrend: wine tourism continues to grow
While consumption and exports are slowing, a wine-related sector continues to grow.
Wine tourism.
In 2026, it is estimated that around 18 million Italians will be involved in wine-related experiences , approximately 4.5 million more than in 2024 .
This data is confirmed by the report edited by Roberta Garibaldi: the growth concerns not only the number of visitors, but also the way the winery is experienced.
Wine tastings increased from 49% to 64% , while visits to wineries increased from 32% to 46% .
But perhaps the most interesting fact concerns what the visitor is looking for.
In 2026, the family-run winery becomes one of the most sought-after experiences.
The tourist wants to know who produces the wine.
He wants to hear a story.
He wants to see the vineyard.
He wants to understand the territory.
And he often wants to eat, stay and shop directly.
Wine is increasingly sold through experience
This could be one of the most important changes for the industry.
On average, consumers drink less wine, but seem to be willing to spend to experience wine .
The cellar is therefore no longer just a production site.
It can become simultaneously:
place of production, tourist destination, point of sale, restaurant, accommodation facility, cultural space and brand communication tool.
Food and wine tourism in the summer of 2026 will involve a total of around 25 million Italians , confirming how food, wine and the region are now an integral part of travel choices.
The Italian wine sector between structural crisis and new growth models.
Italian wine is undergoing a phase of profound transformation.
Declining global consumption, slowing exports, rising inventories, and price pressure are disrupting the entire supply chain.
However, within the sector, two very different realities emerge.
On the one hand, many denominations are facing overproduction and are demanding supply containment measures; on the other, the Prosecco System continues to grow, demonstrating a greater capacity for adaptation than the rest of the sector.
Federvini and UIV: Two strategies to address the crisis
The open discussion at the Ministry of Agriculture’s Supply Chain Table highlights two different approaches.
Italian Wine Union (UIV)
According to UIV, it is necessary to intervene mainly on the supply through:
reduction of production potential;
limitation of new installations;
yield management;
prevention of surpluses;
possible recourse to crisis distillation.
The goal is to quickly restore balance between demand and production.
Federvini
Federvini, on the other hand, proposes a different strategy.
According to President Piero Mastroberardino, future competitiveness will not depend so much on producing less, but on creating greater value through:
international promotion;
institutional communication;
promotion of wine culture;
investments in foreign markets;
strengthening the positioning of Made in Italy.
The philosophy is simple:
Limiting production without boosting demand risks shifting the problem without solving it.
The numbers of the crisis
The current scenario portrays a more difficult market than in previous years.
Among the main elements:
Italian exports decreasing;
sales in large-scale retail trade are declining;
over 53 million hectolitres of stocks;
increase in downgradings from DOC and IGP;
reduction in the economic value of production.
According to the OIV, world consumption continues to decline due to:
inflation;
lifestyle changes;
greater attention to health;
slowdown in consumption in the United States.
Prosecco is the exception
While most Italian denominations are experiencing a slowdown, the Prosecco System continues to show positive signs.
The main factors supporting this growth are:
over 660 million certified bottles;
over 80% destined for export;
strong presence in international markets;
ability to intercept new consumers;
world leadership in sparkling wines.
According to Franco Passador (Vi.VO Cantine), success comes from a balance built over the years between:
supply chain organization;
production planning;
international presence;
ability to manage supply.
The “Prosecco System” looks forward
During the conference organized by CIA Agricoltori Italiani in Conegliano, a very different vision emerged compared to the rest of the sector.
We are not talking about reducing production here, but about:
plan for growth;
maintain value;
manage the market intelligently;
better redistribute profitability along the supply chain.
The three Consortia (Prosecco DOC, Conegliano Valdobbiadene DOCG, and Asolo DOCG) share a management approach based on supply regulation rather than emergency interventions.
The real challenge will be to create profitability
One of the most important issues that emerged concerns the profitability of agricultural businesses.
According to CIA Treviso and ISMEA, creating commercial value is not enough.
This value must also reach winemakers.
For this reason, the creation of a permanent observatory on production costs and the real profitability of companies has been proposed.
No and Low Alcohol Wine Continues to Grow
Another trend destined to influence the market concerns the No and Low Alcohol segment.
According to IWSR:
consumption is growing in the main world markets;
Millennials represent today’s largest group of buyers;
the presence of Generation Z is also rapidly increasing;
moderation in consumption becomes a stable and no longer occasional choice.
The phenomenon does not replace traditional wine but expands consumption opportunities.
Restaurant prices: a new model is needed
Riccardo Ricci Curbastro proposes to overcome the traditional markup system.
The idea is to replace the multiplier on the price of the bottle with a fixed margin that remunerates the service.
According to this setting:
the consumer perceives greater transparency;
increases the competitiveness of the restaurant industry;
wine is becoming more accessible, especially to young people.
European export
European Commission data show a less negative picture than expected.
The European Union’s agri-food exports decreased slightly, but the reduction in imports improved the trade balance.
Wine remains among the main export products and continues to represent one of the major contributors to the European trade balance.
DOP Exports: Prosecco Remains the Leader
The Nomisma Wine Monitor report confirms a general slowdown in exports of Italian PDO wines.
Among the denominations that show the greatest resilience we find:
Prosecco;
Asti Sparkling Wine;
Sicilian whites;
Tuscan whites;
Piedmontese reds.
France continues to maintain its world leadership in value, while Spain is going through a more difficult phase.
Where the vineyard generates the most income
According to a study by the American Association of Wine Economists:
Champagne
South Tyrol
Aosta Valley
Burgundy
Liguria
The Italian regions also include:
Piedmont;
Tuscany;
Veneto;
Friuli Venezia Giulia.
The study confirms that the value produced by a hectare of vineyard depends much more on qualitative positioning than on volumes.
The prospects
The sector is entering a new phase.
The keywords will be:
value;
territorial identity;
sustainability;
wine tourism;
innovation;
reputation;
internationalization.
The market will increasingly reward those who produce large quantities less and increasingly those who can build a strong brand, a recognizable territory, and a distinctive experience.
This week confirms that the Italian wine sector is undergoing a profound transformation.
On the one hand, positive signs are emerging in premium segments and high-value-added markets; on the other, challenges related to declining consumption, reduced exports to the United States, oversupply, and the squeeze on corporate profitability remain evident.
In terms of fine wines , Italy is the country with the best performance in the first half of 2026 according to the Liv-Ex indices, with the Italy 100 growing by 1.9% , supported by major labels such as Barolo, Barbaresco, Masseto, Sassicaia, Soldera, and Tignanello. The collectible wine market therefore shows renewed confidence in major Italian brands.
However, the situation remains more complex for consumer wine. According to Nomisma Wine Monitor, the sector remains “in the lurch”: the recovery is not yet consolidated and it will take time to regain equilibrium. The importance of new markets such as India, Australia, and Mercosur is growing, while sustainability certifications are becoming a strategic requirement for accessing Northern European markets.
The Italian cooperative model also received important recognition. Cantina Terlano was named the best winemaking cooperative in the world, and Cavit took second place globally, confirming the value of cooperation based on quality, local territory, and innovation.
Great attention is also paid to European policies with the new Wine Package , which aims to make the sector more competitive through investments, innovation, wine tourism, greater production flexibility and the development of dealcoholized and low-alcohol wines.
Among the most discussed topics is the need to rebalance the supply chain. Riccardo Cotarella and Lamberto Frescobaldi call for a reduction in commercial markups and a better balance between production and demand. Frescobaldi also proposes a temporary halt to new vineyard plantings, a reduction in yields, and a strategy focused on quality rather than volume.
The ready-to-drink segment continues to grow, driven primarily by younger consumers and low- and no-alcohol products. At the same time, opportunities offered by wine tourism, summer consumption at beach clubs, and local experiences are increasing.
However, critical issues remain in organic viticulture. After years of growth, many companies are reconsidering certification due to high costs, increased pest control, bureaucracy, and insufficient margins.
Internationally, the United States remains the most sensitive market. In addition to declining consumption, the American distribution system is undergoing a profound reorganization, while tariffs and economic uncertainty continue to weigh on Italian exports.
The study presented in Verona also highlights how the wine crisis affects the entire regional economic system: a 5% reduction in exports could generate over €260 million in economic benefits for the entire province, confirming that wine represents a key economic driver for many Italian regions.
Overall, a clear message emerges: Italian wine maintains an enormous legacy of value, reputation, and quality, but the future will require more strategic production management, greater market diversification, commercial innovation, the development of wine tourism, and communication capable of engaging with new generations.