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Wine Trends and Performance in Italy. Weekly Summary – March 9-13, 2026

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The Italian winemaking system is experiencing a fragile equilibrium, characterized by still-full cellars, declining global consumption, and more unstable international markets.

The sector remains structurally solid, but is entering a new economic cycle in which production flexibility, market diversification, and business model innovation are becoming decisive factors.

Cellars full: the problem is not production but the speed of sales

According to the ICQRF’s Cantina Italia report, in February 2026, Italian cellars held approximately 58.6 million hectoliters of wine , in addition to 6 million hectoliters of must . Compared to 2025, stocks increased by 5.8% , confirming a trend that had already emerged in previous months.

This level of inventory is not due to a particularly abundant harvest: 2025 production stopped at around 44.3 million hectoliters , in line with the previous year. The real critical factor is therefore the slowdown in the rate at which wine is absorbed by the market .

The trend reflects a broader phenomenon: world consumption fell from 276 million hectoliters in 2019 to around 227 million in 2024 , signaling a structural shift in global demand.

Slower consumption and new consumer behaviors

In mature markets—Europe and North America—wine consumption is changing. Among the main factors are:

  • greater attention to moderation and health
  • growing competition from other beverages
  • new social models of consumption
  • generational changes in habits

In the Horeca channel, data from the CDA consortium show a stable but changing market: in 2025, out-of-home beverage sales grew slightly in value (0.66%) , but fell in volume (-0.92%) .

The consumer mix is shifting toward categories perceived as lighter or more experiential. The following are growing:

  • aperitifs and vermouth (9.39% value)
  • energy drink (9.17%)
  • short-term consumption formulas such as aperitifs and lunch breaks.

Traditional evening consumption, on the other hand, tends to lose its centrality.

Exports: the slowdown in the United States weighs on the sector

International trade in Italian wine remains strong but shows signs of slowing.

In 2025, Italian exports closed at 7.7 billion euros , with a decrease of -3.7% compared to 2024 and approximately 300 million euros less .

The main cause is the decline in the US market, the primary commercial outlet for Italian wine. In the United States:

  • overall wine imports decreased by approximately -12% in value
  • Italian exports lost approximately -13.2% , falling to 1.8 billion euros .

Several simultaneous factors were at play:

  • tariffs introduced by the Trump administration
  • devaluation of the dollar
  • reduction of internal consumption
  • process of clearing out stocks accumulated after the pandemic.

To keep prices competitive, many producers have absorbed part of the duties by reducing margins.

New markets and export geographies

The contraction of the United States is pushing Italian wine to seek new trade routes.

In 2025, the markets with the most dynamic signals are:

  • Brazil , the only major market growing in both volume and value
  • South Korea , with increasing wine imports
  • Eastern European countries such as Poland and the Czech Republic
  • emerging markets in Southeast Asia such as Vietnam and Thailand .

Despite these opportunities, many major global markets – China, Japan, the United Kingdom and Switzerland – still saw slowdowns in purchasing.

Strategies for managing surpluses

The issue of inventories brings the question of managing production potential back to the fore.

There are various tools available to the sector:

  • product storage pending better conditions
  • downgrading of wines from denomination to lower categories
  • distillation as an emergency tool
  • uprooting of vineyards to reduce production capacity.

Many consortia, however, underline that the drop in consumption is no longer a temporary phenomenon but a structural trend .

Wine tourism and direct sales: levers of value

In this context, models that bring the producer closer to the consumer become increasingly relevant.

Wine tourism represents one of the most important levers: according to Roberta Garibaldi’s report, for some Italian wineries the tourist experience can generate up to 60% of profits , while for approximately half of the companies it contributes up to 30%.

At the same time, interest in direct online sales (D2C) is growing. In the European market, this method can guarantee margins of up to 70% , compared to the 25–30% of traditional shelf sales.

A sector that needs to become more flexible

The debate currently raging in the wine world converges on one point: the production system must become more flexible.

In a global market characterized by geopolitical volatility, consumption fluctuations and cultural changes, the Italian wine sector will have to:

  • adapt production to demand more quickly
  • diversify markets and sales channels
  • develop integrated models between wine, tourism and experience
  • improve communication towards new consumers.

Wine Trends and Market Performance in Italy (Week of March 2–6, 2026)

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The first full week of March 2026 portrays an Italian wine sector in a phase of “difficult resilience.” The industry is not collapsing, but it is moving in a fragile balance between structural declines in volumes, pressure on margins, geopolitical and trade uncertainty (tariffs and key export markets), and changing consumption patterns driven by new lifestyles and health awareness.

At the same time, some niches—particularly fine wines and top brands—are showing early signs of recovery, while price competition and consumer selectivity continue to increase.

1) 2025 Financial Results: More Stability Than Growth, Widespread but Limited Declines

Evidence from the sample of wineries analyzed (high-profile companies with aggregated revenues exceeding €2.5 billion) shows that 2025 closed as a complex year of consolidation.

  • 53% of companies: reported stable financial results.
  • Most of the remaining companies: recorded revenue declines mainly between -1% and -5%, with very few cases of slight growth.

However, the sector is coming from a high baseline:

  • 2024 was a record year for exports, reaching €8.1 billion, following several favorable post-Covid years.

The key issue is not only how much is being lost, but how companies are reacting. Many wineries are defending their results through tactical decisions involving:

  • pricing strategies
  • promotions
  • channel mix adjustments
  • tighter control over inventory and sales networks

2) Italy vs Export Markets: More Stability at Home, More Volatility Abroad

The gap between the domestic market and exports remains evident.

Domestic Italian Market

  • 58% report stability
  • 26% report decline
  • 16% report growth

Changes are generally limited (1–3 percentage points), but the signal is clear: the market is stable but lacks strong momentum, and growth remains a minority trend.

Export Markets

  • 42% report stability
  • 37% report decline (sometimes significant, from -3% to -15%)
  • 21% report growth (generally +1% to +3%)

Supporting data confirm a “cool” 2025 market environment:

  • Large-scale retail (GDO): -0.5% in value and -3.1% in volume
  • Exports (first 11 months of 2025): -3.6% in value and -2% in volume

In summary: the domestic market holds up better but does not accelerate, while exports remain more volatile, influenced by external shocks and shifting demand patterns.

3) Expectations for 2026: Operational Realism with Hopes for a Modest Recovery

Expectations for 2026 remain cautious but relatively stable.

  • 70% of companies expect stability or slight recovery
  • 30% fear a further (mild) decline

More specifically:

  • some expect results in line with 2025
  • some foresee a -3% to -5% decrease
  • others anticipate +2% to +4% growth — more a recovery than a boom

The strategic interpretation is clear: 2026 is not a year for inertia.
Performance will depend more than ever on:

  • commercial agility
  • channel management quality
  • price, packaging and format strategy
  • the ability to make brands clear, understandable and desirable

4) Investments: Communication Stable, Sales Strengthened

An important operational signal emerges from the sector: despite pressure on profitability, companies are not massively cutting the functions that drive sales.

  • Marketing & communication:
    • 79% expect stable budgets in 2026 compared with 2025
    • budget cuts exist but are not the norm (generally -5% to -20%)
  • Sales support:
    • no companies expect reductions
    • 37% plan to increase investments, typically around +5%, with peaks up to +10%

In other words, the industry message is clear:
“The market is tough, so we must strengthen our commercial engine and protect brand perception.”

5) Consumption and Drinking Culture: Less Automatic, More Selective (Gen Z and Beyond)

Changes in consumption are not simply a decline—they represent a shift in the grammar of drinking.

  • Overall consumption is decreasing across several countries.
  • Generation Z is not disappearing from the market — it is selecting more carefully.

Drinking is becoming:

  • more occasional
  • more aligned with personal wellbeing and identity
  • more sensitive to authenticity, sustainability and transparency

Interest is growing in:

  • sparkling wines
  • fresh white wines
  • lighter styles that are easier to drink

At the same time, low/no alcohol products are gaining attention, but there is no widespread belief that they will “save volumes.”

A notable divide emerges in the data:

  • 26% of wineries are investing or planning to invest in low/no alcohol products
  • 74% are not considering it (at least for now)

This reflects a sector split between those who see a strategic opportunity and those who fear brand dilution or low margins.

6) Pricing and Restaurants: The Challenge Is How Wine Is Sold

In the Ho.Re.Ca. channel, the challenge is not only fewer customers but also price perception and spending thresholds.

Wine lists become problematic when consumers are more cautious and psychological price limits decrease.

Signs of adaptation are emerging:

  • renewed interest in smaller formats (half bottles)
  • increased sensitivity to promotions and commercial formulas
  • experimentation with new packaging and formats

The strategic challenge here is critical:
transforming the wine list from a barrier into a lever, making it easier for consumers to choose—and easier for them to trade up without feeling overcharged.

7) International Markets: New Attractive Geographies and Trade Shocks

The international environment highlights two key messages.

  1. Increasing focus on intra-European markets

Markets perceived as more attractive in the short term include:

  • Germany
  • The Netherlands
  • Japan

The United States is dropping in priority, mainly due to tariff uncertainty and market volatility.

  1. Mercosur opportunities

The provisional implementation of the EU–Mercosur agreement is viewed positively, especially regarding Brazil, where tariffs historically have been very high:

  • up to 27% on still wines
  • up to 35% on sparkling wines

The operational idea:
today it remains a marginal market, but with growth potential if trade barriers decrease and structured promotion is implemented.

Another contextual signal:
Russia remains a market where Italy is the leading exporter, although volumes have declined compared to 2024, consistent with an overall contraction in imports.

8) Fine Wines: A Small Niche, But a Meaningful Signal

The secondary market for fine wines (Liv-Ex) shows moderately positive signals at the beginning of 2026:

  • main indices show slight growth
  • Italian labels are performing strongly in some top segments

This niche does not rescue the sector as a whole, but it indicates that:

  • brand equity and rarity remain resilient
  • the premium segment may recover earlier than the mainstream market
  • the premium strategy remains valid, provided it is supported by distribution, storytelling and coherent positioning

9) Strategic Implications for Italian Wineries

The picture emerging from the week of March 2–6, 2026 leads to a clear conclusion:
this is not a cycle to wait for—it is a cycle to manage.

Operational priorities emerging from sector data include:

  • Protect margins before volumes: pricing, promotions and formats must be managed as a strategic architecture, not reactive measures.
  • Strengthen sales networks and conversion capability: increased sales budgets highlight where 2026 will be won or lost.
  • Simplify value for consumers: clearer product ranges, consumption occasions, by-the-glass offerings, pairings and formats.
  • Reposition portfolios toward more demanded styles: whites, sparkling wines and freshness; reds more selective and better narrated.
  • Open alternative markets with real strategies: Germany, Northern Europe and urban Asia; Brazil as a strategic option if properly supported.
  • Low/no alcohol: a strategic decision, not a trend. For some wineries it may become an entry channel; for others it conflicts with identity. In both cases, the choice must be clear and deliberate.

Wine: With tariffs, war, and logistics in decline, is Italian wine at risk of default?

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“The recently published Nomisma Wine Monitor analysis shows how, understandably, given everything that has happened and is happening in the world, the global wine market in 2025 has shown strong signs of slowing, with a drop of almost 12% in value and a market that has stabilized around 5.5 billion euros,” comments Diego Cusumano, one of the most recognized winemakers in Italy and abroad, and owner of the eponymous company with his brother Alberto.

Producers: “If exports don’t go well, there’s a risk of huge production surpluses.”

According to the report, the United States is at the center of this decline due to tariffs, with a 2.6% decrease in volume and 6.2% in value compared to the previous year. But even looking east, the situation isn’t improving, with China seeing a decline in value of Italian wine by over 15%, and Japan reducing purchases by 2.2% in volume and 1.7% in value. In Europe, the United Kingdom, Italy’s second-largest market, saw total imports decline by approximately 6% in both volume and value, and Switzerland also saw Italian exports decline by approximately 6% in value. Brazil, on the other hand, saw exports grow by 3.5% in volume and 1.9% in value, as did South Korea, where imports grew by 5.3%.

“This new war, which is spreading throughout the Middle East and beyond, represents a further aggravating factor not only for wine exports but for Made in Italy in general ,” explains winemaker Cusumano . ” If tariffs and price increases have caused a significant slowdown, now the threat is the interruption of supply chains, specifically in terms of logistics and transportation. International corridors, due to the war, are significantly narrowing, with the availability of operating carriers dramatically reduced to the real, even minimal, need, which will translate into transportation costs, where possible, much more expensive and therefore uneconomical. On the other hand, let’s also ask ourselves what we should do, already in 2026, with the harvest effectively upon us (end of August), with the probable surpluses due to the sharp slowdown not so much in foreign demand, which remains, but in the possibility of satisfying it logistically. And if we winemakers, for certain types of wine, are slightly lucky since It will age, I wonder what the impact will be on the entire Italian food and wine sector.”

Matteo Lunelli , CEO of the Lunelli group and CEO and president of Ferrari Trento, also agrees with Diego Cusumano . “The war,” the producer claims, ” will certainly have repercussions on the economy as well: it will cause problems in transportation because it compromises strategic routes, it undermines consumer confidence, it will raise energy costs and it will also affect the Middle East and the Emirates, which is a rapidly growing market and also important in general for Italian wine and Made in Italy products.”

Confirmation of the surplus also comes from Lamberto Frescobaldi , president of the Italian Wine Union, who already raised the alarm last July : “We have over 40 million hectoliters of wine in storage, and if the next harvest—or rather, the upcoming one, the UIV president explained—is average with around 50 million hectoliters, we will have approximately 90 million hectoliters of product available by the end of the year. A monstrous supply that risks depressing prices. There’s really nothing to celebrate.”

Wine Trends and Performance in Italy — Week 23–27 February 2026

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This week captures a sector entering a phase of harsh reorganization: more selective demand, high inventories, pressure on prices (even for “fine wines”), and an institutional response that attempts to restore flexibility to a system built for “always” growth.

The underlying message is simple and a little ruthless: it’s no longer enough to produce well; we need to manage volumes, channels, and positioning with industrial discipline.

1) “Big player” shock: Treasury Wine Estates slowing down (global signal)

The Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) case is a bell that rings loudly because it concerns a giant with premium and super-premium brands. In the first half of the 2026 fiscal year (ending December 31, 2025), TWE recorded:

  • operating income at AUD 236.4 million ( -39.6% ),
  • net revenues at 1.3 billion AUD ( -16% )
  • statutory NPAT loss of AUD 649.4 million,
  • AUD 770.5 million write-down on US assets (higher than expected).

The strategic interpretation is clear: the negative trends in the US and China are also affecting those perceived as “protected” by their positioning. TWE’s response is a multi-year plan (” TWE Ascent “) targeting AUD 100 million per year in cost reduction and a portfolio review along three lines: leadership in luxury reds , growth in premium whites , and a push for low/no alcohol and “modern refreshment.” In other words: the market is rewarding agility and product line innovation, not reputational inertia.

2) EU exports: drop in bottled still wines, and DOPs pay the highest price

On the European perimeter, the data (February 2022 vs October 2025) show:

  • EU exports of still bottled wines in value -2.8% : from €16.1 to €15.7 billion (approximately €460 million ).
  • the most affected part is the bottled PDO : -€424 million (almost the entire overall loss).
  • Bottled PGI : -€71.8 million (-2.6%).
  • without indication : -15.8 million € (-1.7%).
  • only growth: bottled varietals €51.7 million (6.5%).
    In volume, bottled PDO wines recorded a decline of 3.3 million hl (-17.5%) . Despite this, as of October 2025, they still accounted for 71.9% of EU exports (PGI 17.2%; remainder 11%).

Message: The PDO “locomotive” remains central, but it is suffering the most as demand shrinks and becomes price-sensitive. The market, at this stage, is showing greater traction in categories perceived as more immediate, understandable, and flexible .

3) Piedmont: Barolo/Barbaresco “bubble” and falling grape prices (the premium is not immune)

The most severe focus in Italy comes from Piedmont: consortia and supply chains describe a crisis comparable (in severity) to 2008, with full cellars and declining demand. Some key data:

  • average consumption indicated to drop to 20 litres/year per capita ,
  • Barolo stock: from 65 million bottles (2019) to 74.9 million (15%),
  • Barbaresco stock: from 19 million to 21.8 million (14.7%),
  • grape prices (Cuneo Chamber of Commerce): -32% Barolo , -24% Barbaresco , with significant drops also on Nebbiolo d’Alba/Langhe Nebbiolo and Barbera.

Two sides emerge in the debate: those calling for extraordinary measures (distillation of surpluses, exit incentives) and those viewing the correction as “necessary” after years of excessively high prices. In the background, a reputational risk: the compression of the value of fine wine through channels and pricing policies (foreign retail, private labels) that can erode its identity and pricing power.

4) Italy: certifications and product mix (Valoritalia) confirm the shift in consumption

Valoritalia’s numbers (updated to December 31, 2025) describe a 2025 of consolidation:

  • total certified bottlings -2.1% vs 2024,
  • DOC/DOCG 1% , IGT -12% ,
  • by type: sparkling wines 1% , rosés 5.7% , still whites 2.7% , reds -13% ,
  • Italian wine exports (Nomisma Wine Monitor recall): approximately -3% in value in 2025,
  • Large-scale retail trade in Italy: volumes -2.8% ; still/sparkling wines -3.8% , sparkling wines 3.1% .

Two heavy structural notes:

  • fragility of micro-denominations (many, small, more exposed to fluctuations),
  • highly fragmented sector: the majority bottles small volumes, but the concentration “at the top” remains significant.

5) Policies and rules: EU “redesigns” the sector (more flexibility and less friction on exports)

The EU reform adopted by the Council aims to make the sector more competitive and resilient:

  • tools for rebalancing supply/demand (including eradication in case of excess),
  • planting rights without a “dry expiry date”, but with a ten-yearly review ,
  • climate support up to 80% of eligible costs (mitigation/adaptation),
  • simpler and more harmonized labelling, with a push towards digital/pictograms ,
  • Official definitions for low/no alcohol : “non-alcoholic” <0.5%; “0.0%” <0.05%; “reduced alcohol content” for significant reductions,
  • for extra-EU exports: exemption from ingredients and nutritional declaration (reduction of bureaucracy),
  • more support for wine tourism and phytosanitary protection (e.g. flavescence dorée).

At the same time, in Italy UIV reports growing stocks (61 million hl of wine, almost 68 million hl including musts) and calls for production potential to be made more flexible with a revision of the Consolidated Law.

6) International scenario: tariffs, cuts and “crisis distillations” (USA and France)

  • In the US, the tariff analysis describes a year of extra costs, struggling exports, and trade hostility , with impacts especially on exporters and those dependent on foreign supplies (bottles, barrels, machinery). Even where sales are holding up, they often do so at lower margins .
  • US giant Gallo announces further closures and cuts (93 workers affected, effective April 15) due to evolving demand and available capacity.
  • In France, a textbook measure for managing surpluses has been implemented: €40 million to distill 1.2 million hl of surplus red and rosé wines, to restore balance before the 2026 harvest.

The international picture converges: when stocks become a systemic problem, supply chains move from “marketing” to “surgery”.

7) Markets and promotion: more teams and more geographies (emerging UK)

On the trade front, Italy is pushing the idea of creating a system: institutions and platforms (Vinitaly/Veronafiere and ICE/ITA) are aiming to consolidate established markets and open up new ones. In parallel, a platform like “Wine Experience” is being established and strengthened, with a 2026 road show starting in London (April 26–27, 2026) and targeting emerging markets like Vietnam and Mexico , with the goal of creating structured promotional and matching opportunities.

8) Culture-consumption: the generational divide remains a real (not moral) issue

The debate on young people and wine, despite the provocations, brings the industry back to a point of truth: consumption is changing for social, health, and lifestyle reasons. Wine must therefore work on usage opportunities , languages, formats, and products (including low- and no-cost options), without losing its identity but without appealing only to those who are already “converted.”

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