Italian wine closes the week with a complex picture, but not without prospects.
On the one hand, there are clear signs of pressure on markets, consumption, and exports, especially to the United States; on the other, a more strategic approach to the sector is gaining ground, based on the quality, positioning, adaptability, and cultural value of Italian wine.
The underlying theme this week is clear: the sector is not going through an easy phase, but it still has the extraordinary assets to remain competitive. Strong territories, recognized appellations, consolidated brands, international leadership in many categories, and growing integration with tourism, restaurants, and lifestyle continue to make wine one of the pillars of Made in Italy.
In terms of sentiment, the strongest message conveyed at the launch of Vinitaly 2026 was one of responsible optimism. The testimonies of iconic figures in modern Italian wine, from Piero Antinori to Marco Caprai, from José Rallo to Paolo Damilano, and from Gaetano Marzotto, portray a sector that has already endured profound crises and has regenerated from them. The reference to the fortieth anniversary of the methanol scandal was not merely commemorative: it served as a reminder that one of the most difficult moments for Italian wine also marked the beginning of a structural modernization based on controls, quality, international reputation, and a new awareness among businesses, distributors, and consumers.
And it is precisely this industrial memory that today fuels a less defensive vision of the future. The widespread belief is that Italian wine must stop portraying itself merely as a sector under pressure and instead return to more strongly promoting its unique strengths: territoriality, culture, conviviality, biodiversity, narrative ability, and the connection to Italian cuisine. In other words, the sector cannot simply endure the slowdown, but must use this phase to better reposition itself.
The most sensitive issue remains exports, particularly to the US. The start of 2026 appears challenging: the first few months show a sharp decline in value, with January reported at -35% and the first two months projected to decline by 28% compared to 2025. American tariffs, the euro-dollar exchange rate, the slowdown in consumption, the slowdown in out-of-home sales, and a general instability in inventories and distribution are all weighing on the situation. The United States remains a key market for Italian wine, accounting for 23% of the sector’s total exports, and for this very reason, the focus is on the utmost.
The emerging response, however, isn’t simply a wait-and-see approach. There’s open talk of a special promotional plan to relaunch Italian wine in the US, involving institutions, ICE (Italian Trade Agency), Coldiretti (Italian Farmers’ Federation), Filiera Italia (Italian Supply Chain), American buyers, and trade operators. The strategic message is twofold: on the one hand, we must defend Italy’s presence in the world’s leading market; on the other, we must accelerate geographical diversification to reduce dependence on a single market. In this scenario, Vinitaly confirms itself not only as a trade fair, but also as a platform for the industrial and commercial policy of Italian wine.
Within the domestic market, however, more nuanced and less negative signs are emerging than often reported. The UIV-Vinitaly Observatory reports a very significant finding: in Italy, wine consumers remain just under 30 million, equal to 55% of the population. The audience, therefore, is holding steady. The number of consumers isn’t declining; rather, the way they consume is changing. Daily consumption is declining and occasional consumption is increasing, with the ratio now reversed compared to the past: 61% drink wine occasionally, while 39% consume it daily. This is a sign of a structural transformation in the relationship with wine, increasingly less tied to habit and increasingly focused on choice, occasion, and quality.
This shift should be viewed less alarmistly and more progressively. Italians drink less, but seek higher quality, greater gratification, and a more informed relationship with the product. Moderation is therefore part of the sector’s new balance, not necessarily a sign of disaffection. The problem isn’t that wine is disappearing from consumer behavior; the problem is that the marketing language is changing, and those who sell wine must adapt.
Perhaps the most interesting data of the week concerns young people. Contrary to a narrative that has been prevalent for years, young people are not primarily responsible for the decline in consumption. Indeed, the only significant increase in wine penetration is among the 18-24 age group: from 39% to 47% of the category compared to 2011. This share is still numerically small, but strategically very important, as it indicates that wine continues to enter the aspirational universe of the new generations.
Young people’s relationship with wine, however, is radically different from that of older generations. It’s not based on everyday life, but on curiosity, taste, image, discovery, and experiences outside the home. For Gen Z, wine is enjoyable, represents sophistication, and is associated with well-being and relationships. This explains why young people spend more on average on out-of-home consumption and are particularly active in restaurants and bars. This is a crucial strategic key: the future of wine lies less and less in the repetition of everyday gestures and more and more in the ability to create desirability, narrative, experience, and orientation.
Also of note is the reversal of some clichés about consumption preferences. The data shows that Prosecco remains the most versatile and powerful wine among Millennials, Gen Xers, and Boomers, confirming its role as a major contemporary consumer platform. But among younger consumers, a surprising trend emerges: Gen Z favors great Italian reds. Amarone, Barbaresco, Taurasi, Bolgheri, and Chianti top the list of preferences, demonstrating that red wines have by no means disappeared from the younger consumer’s horizons, as long as they are marketed correctly, with appropriate language, context, and advice.
This aspect has very concrete commercial implications. It means that the problem isn’t the product itself, but the way it’s positioned and presented. Younger people are proving more open to experimentation, more willing to seek advice, more inclined to read online reviews, and more receptive to alternative formats and packaging. This means the supply chain must work harder at the point of sale, in restaurants, on digital communication, and on the readability of the product offering. Wine must not just be good: it must be understandable, accessible in its narrative, and consistent with the language of the contemporary consumer.
On the overall economic level, the sector nevertheless retains enormous importance. Wine is worth approximately €14 billion in revenue, net of related industries, with a positive trade balance of €7.2 billion and an overall impact of €45 billion when considering indirect effects. The area under vine, the number of businesses, employment, and production confirm that it is not just an agricultural sector, but an economic and territorial system of primary national importance. For this reason, too, the current situation requires a calm, non-emotional approach: 2025 was challenging but relatively resilient, while 2026 remains entirely unpredictable.
In the domestic market, large-scale retail trade shows stability in value but declining volumes, once again confirming the “less is more” paradigm. Sparkling wines continue to be the most dynamic category, while reds are struggling and whites remain largely stagnant. Rosés are growing, but still at low levels. Prosecco remains the most resilient and cross-sectional phenomenon, while the entire sparkling wine segment continues to play an important countercyclical role for the sector.
The dynamics of fine wine are also interesting. The secondary market for fine wines appears to be slowly stabilizing, with signs of recovery expected towards the end of 2026. After a long period of price correction, lower interest rates and increased interest from European operators are bringing renewed attention to the collectible wine segment. Despite a still cautious outlook and a more uncertain position for the US, fine wine appears to be emerging from its weakest phase. For high-end Italian wine, this is a sign worth watching carefully, as it confirms that the value of great terroirs and iconic labels can once again become central, even in a selective environment.
Another theme that emerged forcefully is the growing need to integrate wine with other worlds: tourism, cuisine, experience, landscape, and culture. This is now an irreversible trend. Companies that can present themselves not just as producers of wines, but as interpreters of local areas and lifestyles, will be best equipped to navigate the new market cycle. Italian wine retains a unique strength: it sells not just product, but a combination of origin, story, hospitality, reputation, and Italianness. This is where a crucial part of future competitiveness will be played out.
This week also highlights the mistake of indiscriminately cutting back on promotion, events, and visibility. In a complex market environment, rationalizing investments is necessary, but reducing commercial presence and market presence risks further weakening brands. Promotion must be made more selective, more targeted, and more measurable, but it cannot be sacrificed. The sector needs more strategic presence, not less.
The picture that emerged during the week of March 23-27, 2026, depicts a market that continues to face pressure on multiple fronts—declining domestic consumption, geopolitical tensions, slowing exports, logistical challenges, and growing consumer sensitivity to health, price, and simplicity of language—but which, at the same time, shows some areas of strong resilience and even growth.
The Italian wine sector continues to experience a complex, but uneven, phase.
The most obvious fact is that Italian wine is not facing a linear crisis. Rather, it is immersed in a structural transformation that clearly distinguishes categories, markets, sales channels, and consumption patterns. In this scenario, sparkling wines, and Prosecco in particular, remain the most resilient segment, while the rest of the industry is being called upon to rethink its positioning, communication, and consumer relations.
1. Prosecco confirms itself as the true strength of Italian wine
In a challenging overall environment, Prosecco once again emerges as the most robust product in the national wine scene. In the run-up to Easter 2026, orders are expected to increase by 4%, a sign that Italian sparkling wines continue to naturally satisfy convivial and festive consumption.
The numbers of the three denominations confirm this strength:
- Prosecco DOC : 667 million bottles in 2025, 1.1% more than in 2024
- Conegliano Valdobbiadene Prosecco Superiore DOCG : approximately 98 million bottles, 8%
- Asolo Prosecco DOCG : over 32 million bottles, 16%, the most dynamic growth among the three denominations
Prosecco DOC maintains a strong international appeal, with over 82% of production destined for export and an estimated production value exceeding €3 billion. Even the data for the first two months of 2026, which indicates a technical decline in bottling, is not interpreted as a weakening of demand, but rather as strategic inventory management, particularly with the US market in mind. Cellar stocks have increased by 5.8%, a sign of a system that has preferred to modulate flows to accommodate the absorption of foreign inventories.
On the international front, it is worth noting the excellent performance of France, which recorded double-digit growth (18%) and consolidated its position as the third most profitable market for the denomination after the United States and the United Kingdom.
The strategic interpretation is clear: Prosecco continues to win because it perfectly captures the dominant drivers of contemporary consumption—accessibility, immediacy, conviviality, international recognition, and compatibility with less formal consumption occasions.
2. 2025 closed in decline, but Italy held up better than many competitors
2025 ended with a decline in Italian wine exports of -3.7% in value and -1.8% in volume , but this data must be read against an even more negative international backdrop for many competitors. According to an analysis by Denis Pantini (Wine Monitor Nomisma), Italy lost ground, but held up better than other major exporting countries:
- France: -4%
- Spain: -5%
- Australia: -15%
- Chile: -10%
- United States: over -33%
This means that, despite a contraction, Italian wine maintains a relatively stronger competitive edge compared to its main competitors. The German and Brazilian markets have shown positive signs, partially offsetting the greater difficulties experienced in other areas.
For 2026, the forecast remains cautious but not dramatic. If the weaker markets were to rebound, if the geopolitical situation improved, and if Italian consumers regained confidence, the year might not even end in negative territory. This forecast doesn’t warrant easy optimism, but it does confirm that we’re not facing a systemic collapse, but rather a very delicate phase of rebalancing.
3. The start of 2026 is weak: Italian exports slowing, agri-food under pressure
However, the first signs of 2026 point to a difficult start. In January 2026, Made in Italy products fell 4.6% compared to January 2025, while the agri-food sector recorded an even more significant decline, at 7.7% . The United States’ performance was particularly severe, with the agri-food sector contracting by 26.4% .
These figures are also affected by the comparison with the beginning of 2025, when many companies had brought forward orders and inventories in anticipation of possible US tariffs. However, the data confirms the fragility of the international context: Germany (-4.8%), France (-7.5%), and the United Kingdom (-12.3%) also saw declines, while positive signs emerged from Switzerland (-15.5%), China (-14.6%), and Austria (-5.1%).
The message for the wine industry is very clear: dependence on traditional markets increasingly exposes it to geopolitical, fiscal, and distribution cycles. It is therefore crucial to strengthen its presence in high-potential markets, with more flexible commercial strategies and greater direct reach.
4. Large-scale retail trade confirms the decline in consumption, but saves sparkling wines
The most immediate thermometer of the domestic market remains the large-scale retail trade, and the 2025 data show a clear contraction:
- 737 million liters of wine and sparkling wine sold
- 20 million liters less than in 2024
- -3.4% in volume
- -1.1% in value
- total turnover of around 2.36 billion euros
The data points to a two-pronged decline: purchases are decreasing, and rising prices are no longer sufficient to offset the decline. Bottled wines with designations of origin (DOC, DOCG, IGT) are also down 2.6% in volume, while fortified wines remain the weakest category.
The only segment that continues to grow is that of sparkling wines :
- 1.5% by volume
- 1.2% in value
- approximately 109 million liters
- approximately 750 million euros
Growth is more moderate than in the past, but it’s significant because it confirms a distinct trajectory compared to the rest of the market. Italian consumers continue to prize wines that combine freshness, ease of consumption, gastronomic versatility, and a sense of accessible gratification.
5. Best-selling wines: Prosecco dominates, many traditional reds suffer
Among the most purchased wines in large-scale retail trade in 2025, the podium is very clear:
- Prosecco : over 53 million liters, 2.6%
- Lambrusco : over 28 million liters, -7.2%
- Trebbiano : over 23 million liters, 0.3%
Prosecco remains not only the best-selling wine, but also the dominant value, with approximately €392 million spent in large-scale retail trade. Chianti and Vermentino follow, but are far behind.
On the consumption front, some consolidated trends emerge:
- Italians choose more still wines than sparkling ones
- they choose more whites than reds
- but the most purchased individual wine is still still red , with over 261 million litres
Among the growing categories, the following stand out:
- Grecanico : 13.7%
- Nebbiolo : 9.7%
- Pinot Noir : 7.8%
- Classic Method : 6.3%
- Ribolla Gialla : 4.2%
- Primitivo di Puglia : 3%
- Vermentino : 2.5%
This is an interesting signal: while part of the market is declining, some typologies are growing thanks to a more defined identity, greater recognisability or better harmony with new consumer tastes.
6. Prices are rising, but wine in Italy remains among the least inflated products in Europe.
One of the most significant aspects is that wine continues to suffer in consumer perception, but not because it has seen particularly sharp price increases in Italy. On the contrary, according to Eurostat data compiled by FRED and analyzed by the American Association of Wine Economics, between 2015 and 2025, consumer wine prices in Italy increased by only 7.4% , one of the lowest levels in Europe.
For comparison:
- Germany: 22.6%
- France: 25.7%
- Spain: 27.4%
Even in Italian large-scale retail trade, the average price of bottled wines with a designation of origin stood at 5.69 euros/litre , up 2.1% on 2024, in line with the 2% increase already recorded the previous year.
This data leads to an important reflection: the problem with wine today isn’t just its absolute price, but the relationship between price, perceived value, frequency of consumption, and available alternatives. In other words, it’s not enough to say that wine prices haven’t increased significantly; we need to ask ourselves whether consumers still perceive wine as a natural, simple, and justified purchase.
7. Foreign markets are becoming more selective: Germany is more solid, the United Kingdom is more difficult
On the export front, two different signals emerge.
Germany
Germany remains a major market for Italian wine. In 2025, Italian wine imports exceeded €1 billion , accounting for over 40% of the market. Italian PDO wines are:
- 5.4% by volume
- 4.2% in value
Prosecco remains the most exported Italian wine, but Veneto whites, Piedmont reds, and PDO sparkling wines other than Prosecco and Asti are also growing. Germany remains a highly price-oriented market, yet very open to Italian wine, which maintains a competitive advantage thanks to cultural familiarity, the variety of its offerings, and the strength of its appellations.
United Kingdom
The British picture is more challenging. In 2025, wine imports to the UK will decline:
- -4.6% in value
- -6% in volume
Italy remains the leading supplier in volume, with 298.3 million liters , but recorded a 2% decline and a 2.4% reduction in average price. Italian sparkling wines still generate more value than still wines, with £440 million versus £431 million , but the British system is clearly showing signs of tightening due to taxation, changing consumption, and increased competition.
Here, the issue isn’t just selling, but selling better: a comparison with France clearly demonstrates this. The French generate almost the same value as Italy on sparkling wines, but with much lower volumes and much higher prices. This signals a strategic difference in positioning that Italian wine will increasingly have to address.
8. The sector must change its language, not just its product
One of the strongest themes that emerged this week is cultural rather than commercial. The most effective summary is this: it’s not consumers who are turning away from wine, it’s wine that’s losing them .
The problem isn’t just tariffs, conflicts, or the Highway Code. The problem also lies in wine’s difficulty in speaking to new generations, simplifying its language, making itself accessible without losing depth, and presenting itself as an experience and not just a technical term.
Wine continues to have enormous symbolic, territorial, and emotional power, but it often presents itself with codes that are too elitist, self-referential, or unsuitable for new audiences. This is why everything that creates a direct connection becomes central:
- wine tourism
- opening of the cellars
- hospitality
- authentic storytelling
- commercial training
- simple but not trivial communication
- conscious drinking culture
In essence, the industry must shift from a product-centric approach to one that focuses on the consumer, the relationship, and the experience.
9. New directions: dealcoholized products, logistics, geopolitical tensions and supply chain imbalances
Alongside market themes, this week also highlighted new lines of transformation.
Alcohol-free wine
Alcohol-free wine is emerging as a niche with high potential, especially in Northern European, American, and Australian markets. In Italy, the sector is still in its infancy, but the fact that it can be produced in our country as of this year, albeit excluding DOP wines, opens up new opportunities for diversification.
Logistics under pressure
The war in the Middle East is creating significant complications for wine transportation: airspace closures, maritime diversions via Africa, longer lead times, higher costs, temperature risks, and unpredictable deliveries. For a seasonal and promotional industry like wine, the impact on planning can be significant.
Imbalance between wine and grapes
In areas like the Oltrepò, another critical signal is emerging: while bulk wine prices may be rising, grape prices continue to plummet, in many cases to levels close to production costs. This imbalance is challenging the agricultural base and risks structurally weakening entire production areas.
10. Final picture: Italian wine holds up, but needs to reposition itself
The week of March 23-27, 2026, therefore paints a very clear picture. Italian wine isn’t in decline, but it is experiencing a very tough competitive selection process.
The Italian wine sector is currently undergoing a structural transformation that simultaneously affects production, consumption, international trade, and market models.
The data and analyses released during the week of March 16-20, 2026, confirm that the wine industry is not simply experiencing a cyclical phase, but rather a profound shift in the economic balance that has sustained the sector over the past few decades.
Exports down in 2025: the impact of tariffs and the global slowdown
2025 ended on a negative note for Italian wine exports. According to data from the Italian Wine Union Observatory based on Istat, exports reached 7.78 billion euros , a 3.7% decrease compared to 2024 , equal to approximately 300 million euros , while volumes fell 1.9% to approximately 21 million hectoliters .
The slowdown was primarily driven by tensions in non-EU markets, particularly the United States, the world’s leading market for Italian wine, where sales fell by 9.2% , resulting in a loss of approximately €178 million . In the second half of 2025, the decline was even more pronounced, with peaks approaching 23% and a significant reduction in average prices.
Overall, non-European markets recorded a contraction of -6.4% , while the European Union demonstrated greater stability, with growth of 0.5% driven by Germany, France and the Netherlands.
At a territorial level, the three major Italian wine regions remain dominant:
- Veneto : 2.9 billion euros (-1.2%)
- Tuscany : 1.17 billion (-2%)
- Piedmont : 1.15 billion (-2.2%)
Together they represent over 66% of national exports , confirming the strong geographical concentration of the value of Italian wine in the world.
Global consumption and demand: the market is polarizing
The most significant change, however, concerns demand. Global wine consumption is not simply decreasing: its structure is changing .
The market is polarizing into three large segments:
- Large-scale distribution and accessible segment
It remains relatively stable because it caters to more controlled and price-conscious domestic consumption. In a context of inflation and reduced spending outside the home, many consumers are protecting their daily purchases by choosing more affordable bottles. - Super-premium segment
Iconic wines with a strong territorial reputation demonstrate strong resilience. Here, wine is purchased as an experience, a gift, or a collectible. Consumption decreases in frequency but maintains its value. - Mid-market range
This is the segment most exposed to the crisis. Too expensive to be considered everyday consumption and not distinctive enough to be perceived as a premium choice, it is experiencing strong competitive pressure and margin compression.
This dynamic represents one of the main factors of the current overproduction , that is, production exceeding the market’s actual absorption capacity.
Overproduction: From an Agricultural Problem to a Strategic Problem
For many years, the excess wine was managed as a technical or agricultural problem, using tools such as emergency distillations or temporary storage. Today, it’s clear that these solutions are merely stopgap measures.
The key issue is strategic and industrial : part of the supply is no longer aligned with current demand. Continuing to produce large volumes of undistinguished wines aimed at the mid-range market represents one of the riskiest decisions for many companies today.
The market increasingly rewards:
- territorial identity
- stylistic recognisability
- range coherence
- clarity of positioning
The Prosecco case: bottling to slow down in 2026
Among the most evident signs of the new context is the slowdown of Prosecco DOC , one of the driving forces of Italian exports in recent years.
In the first two months of 2026 , bottling recorded:
- -19% in January
- -14% in February
The decline is partly linked to the rush to buy stocks that occurred in 2025 before the introduction of US tariffs, but even analyzing the average of the last four years, the figure remains negative ( -7% ). This signal highlights a phase of readjustment for one of the symbolic products of Italian wine.
International markets: new strategies and investments
In parallel with the slowdown in some emerging markets, such as China – where wine imports decreased by -14.6% in value and -26.7% in volume – some companies continue to invest in building international distribution platforms.
Operations such as Ethica Wines’ expansion into the Chinese market demonstrate how the sector is seeking to strengthen its presence in global markets through more structured and integrated distribution models.
New consumption models: drinkability, moderation and simplicity
The style of wines finding their way onto the market is also changing. Consumers are increasingly seeking:
- drinkability and freshness
- more moderate alcohol content
- gastronomic versatility
- immediacy of consumption
In a context where people drink less, the ease of returning to purchase becomes a decisive metric.
Young People and Wine: A Cultural Challenge
One of the central themes that emerged in the sector debate concerns the relationship between wine and new generations.
The decline in consumption among young people stems not only from economic factors but also from cultural distance. Wine is often perceived as too complex or elitist, while cocktails and spirits convey conviviality, simplicity, and immediacy.
The challenge for the sector is therefore to change its language and storytelling methods , maintaining the cultural depth of wine but making it more accessible, contemporary and inclusive.
Wine tourism: one of the drivers of growth
In contrast to the slowdown in traditional consumption, wine tourism continues to grow strongly.
In 2025:
- visitors in structured cellars 16.8%
- direct sales 21.4%
- Average booking value: 39.4 euros per adult
More and more wineries consider wine tourism not as an ancillary activity but as a strategic business asset and relationship with the consumer .
Sustainability and regenerative viticulture
Another strategic direction concerns the adoption of more sustainable agricultural models. There is growing interest in regenerative viticulture , which aims not only to reduce environmental impact but also to improve soil fertility, biodiversity, and the resilience of vineyards to climate change through digital technologies and innovative agronomic practices.
Conclusion: a sector entering economic maturity
Italian wine remains a cornerstone of the European agri-food economy and a cultural symbol of Made in Italy. However, the sector is entering a phase of economic maturity similar to that experienced by other premium cultural and consumer goods.
The future will no longer depend on the quantity produced, but on the ability to create value.
In a world that consumes less wine, the producers and territories capable of making every bottle necessary, recognizable, and desirable will win. The challenge is not to fill the market, but to conquer a space within an increasingly aware and selective consumer base.
This week captures a sector entering a phase of harsh reorganization: more selective demand, high inventories, pressure on prices (even for “fine wines”), and an institutional response that attempts to restore flexibility to a system built for “always” growth.
The underlying message is simple and a little ruthless: it’s no longer enough to produce well; we need to manage volumes, channels, and positioning with industrial discipline.
1) “Big player” shock: Treasury Wine Estates slowing down (global signal)
The Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) case is a bell that rings loudly because it concerns a giant with premium and super-premium brands. In the first half of the 2026 fiscal year (ending December 31, 2025), TWE recorded:
- operating income at AUD 236.4 million ( -39.6% ),
- net revenues at 1.3 billion AUD ( -16% )
- statutory NPAT loss of AUD 649.4 million,
- AUD 770.5 million write-down on US assets (higher than expected).
The strategic interpretation is clear: the negative trends in the US and China are also affecting those perceived as “protected” by their positioning. TWE’s response is a multi-year plan (” TWE Ascent “) targeting AUD 100 million per year in cost reduction and a portfolio review along three lines: leadership in luxury reds , growth in premium whites , and a push for low/no alcohol and “modern refreshment.” In other words: the market is rewarding agility and product line innovation, not reputational inertia.
2) EU exports: drop in bottled still wines, and DOPs pay the highest price
On the European perimeter, the data (February 2022 vs October 2025) show:
- EU exports of still bottled wines in value -2.8% : from €16.1 to €15.7 billion (approximately €460 million ).
- the most affected part is the bottled PDO : -€424 million (almost the entire overall loss).
- Bottled PGI : -€71.8 million (-2.6%).
- without indication : -15.8 million € (-1.7%).
- only growth: bottled varietals €51.7 million (6.5%).
In volume, bottled PDO wines recorded a decline of 3.3 million hl (-17.5%) . Despite this, as of October 2025, they still accounted for 71.9% of EU exports (PGI 17.2%; remainder 11%).
Message: The PDO “locomotive” remains central, but it is suffering the most as demand shrinks and becomes price-sensitive. The market, at this stage, is showing greater traction in categories perceived as more immediate, understandable, and flexible .
3) Piedmont: Barolo/Barbaresco “bubble” and falling grape prices (the premium is not immune)
The most severe focus in Italy comes from Piedmont: consortia and supply chains describe a crisis comparable (in severity) to 2008, with full cellars and declining demand. Some key data:
- average consumption indicated to drop to 20 litres/year per capita ,
- Barolo stock: from 65 million bottles (2019) to 74.9 million (15%),
- Barbaresco stock: from 19 million to 21.8 million (14.7%),
- grape prices (Cuneo Chamber of Commerce): -32% Barolo , -24% Barbaresco , with significant drops also on Nebbiolo d’Alba/Langhe Nebbiolo and Barbera.
Two sides emerge in the debate: those calling for extraordinary measures (distillation of surpluses, exit incentives) and those viewing the correction as “necessary” after years of excessively high prices. In the background, a reputational risk: the compression of the value of fine wine through channels and pricing policies (foreign retail, private labels) that can erode its identity and pricing power.
4) Italy: certifications and product mix (Valoritalia) confirm the shift in consumption
Valoritalia’s numbers (updated to December 31, 2025) describe a 2025 of consolidation:
- total certified bottlings -2.1% vs 2024,
- DOC/DOCG 1% , IGT -12% ,
- by type: sparkling wines 1% , rosés 5.7% , still whites 2.7% , reds -13% ,
- Italian wine exports (Nomisma Wine Monitor recall): approximately -3% in value in 2025,
- Large-scale retail trade in Italy: volumes -2.8% ; still/sparkling wines -3.8% , sparkling wines 3.1% .
Two heavy structural notes:
- fragility of micro-denominations (many, small, more exposed to fluctuations),
- highly fragmented sector: the majority bottles small volumes, but the concentration “at the top” remains significant.
5) Policies and rules: EU “redesigns” the sector (more flexibility and less friction on exports)
The EU reform adopted by the Council aims to make the sector more competitive and resilient:
- tools for rebalancing supply/demand (including eradication in case of excess),
- planting rights without a “dry expiry date”, but with a ten-yearly review ,
- climate support up to 80% of eligible costs (mitigation/adaptation),
- simpler and more harmonized labelling, with a push towards digital/pictograms ,
- Official definitions for low/no alcohol : “non-alcoholic” <0.5%; “0.0%” <0.05%; “reduced alcohol content” for significant reductions,
- for extra-EU exports: exemption from ingredients and nutritional declaration (reduction of bureaucracy),
- more support for wine tourism and phytosanitary protection (e.g. flavescence dorée).
At the same time, in Italy UIV reports growing stocks (61 million hl of wine, almost 68 million hl including musts) and calls for production potential to be made more flexible with a revision of the Consolidated Law.
6) International scenario: tariffs, cuts and “crisis distillations” (USA and France)
- In the US, the tariff analysis describes a year of extra costs, struggling exports, and trade hostility , with impacts especially on exporters and those dependent on foreign supplies (bottles, barrels, machinery). Even where sales are holding up, they often do so at lower margins .
- US giant Gallo announces further closures and cuts (93 workers affected, effective April 15) due to evolving demand and available capacity.
- In France, a textbook measure for managing surpluses has been implemented: €40 million to distill 1.2 million hl of surplus red and rosé wines, to restore balance before the 2026 harvest.
The international picture converges: when stocks become a systemic problem, supply chains move from “marketing” to “surgery”.
7) Markets and promotion: more teams and more geographies (emerging UK)
On the trade front, Italy is pushing the idea of creating a system: institutions and platforms (Vinitaly/Veronafiere and ICE/ITA) are aiming to consolidate established markets and open up new ones. In parallel, a platform like “Wine Experience” is being established and strengthened, with a 2026 road show starting in London (April 26–27, 2026) and targeting emerging markets like Vietnam and Mexico , with the goal of creating structured promotional and matching opportunities.
8) Culture-consumption: the generational divide remains a real (not moral) issue
The debate on young people and wine, despite the provocations, brings the industry back to a point of truth: consumption is changing for social, health, and lifestyle reasons. Wine must therefore work on usage opportunities , languages, formats, and products (including low- and no-cost options), without losing its identity but without appealing only to those who are already “converted.”