Final strategic scenario for wineries, entrepreneurs, and investors.
The week of June 8-12, 2026, confirms a structural change in the Italian wine sector.
We are not facing a crisis in wine as a product, but a profound transformation of the entire economic, production, and commercial model that has supported the sector’s growth over the last twenty years.
The signals are coming from the entire supply chain:
increase in stocks in cellars;
slowdown in global consumption;
contraction of exports to some historical markets;
pressure on bulk prices;
growing financial difficulties for many companies;
need to reduce production to restore the balance between supply and demand.
At the same time, new opportunities are emerging related to emerging markets, wine tourism, innovation, research, and new communication models.
1. The sector chooses production containment
The biggest news of the week is the green light from the National Council of the Italian Wine Union (Unione Italiana Vini) for the national production containment plan.
The main measures envisaged are:
temporary halt to new vineyard plantings;
reduction in production yields;
revision of the specifications;
greater control over reclassifications;
strengthening of sanctioning systems;
5-10 year national strategic plan.
The decision stems from numbers that can no longer be ignored:
7.6% of stocks in Italian cellars;
-7% prices of bulk DOP and IGP wines;
-11% extra-EU exports in the first quarter of 2026;
approximately 57 million hectolitres present in the cellars.
The message is clear:
Today the problem is not to produce more, but to produce better and sell better.
2. Wine is not in crisis: the old model is in crisis
One of the most interesting reflections of recent years emerges from the Envisioning 2035 summit:
“It’s not wine itself that’s in crisis, but the old way of thinking about it, selling it, and talking about it.”
Businesses that continue to rely exclusively on:
traditional fairs;
historical distributors;
domestic market;
notoriety of the denomination;
are encountering increasing difficulties.
Consumers are changing faster than businesses.
Today wine competes not only with other wines but with:
cocktail;
premium spirits;
craft beers;
ready-to-drink beverages;
new opportunities for socialising.
For this reason the following become fundamental:
digital communication;
community;
e-commerce;
storytelling;
simple and understandable content;
immersive experiences.
3. Wine tourism: from hospitality to profitability driver
One of the most interesting data concerns wine tourism.
The sector now generates over 3.1 billion euros for Italian wineries.
However, simply opening the cellar to visitors is no longer enough.
Wine tourism must become:
customer acquisition;
loyalty;
direct sales;
brand building;
continuous experience over time.
Companies that can transform visitors into repeat customers will have a significant competitive advantage.
4. Exports: slowing but Made in Italy remains very strong
Export data continue to show difficulties.
The slowdown in the United States was particularly severe:
Italian wine: -38%;
spirits: -55%;
vinegars: -35%.
However, a very encouraging fact emerges.
In the United States:
59% of consumers consider Made in Italy to be the best among foreign products;
39% consider Italian alcoholic drinks to be the best in terms of quality;
over 90% continue to purchase Italian products despite the tariffs.
This means that the current problem is not the reputation of Italian wine.
The problem is geopolitical, logistical and commercial.
5. Emerging markets increasingly strategic
In recent years, the weight of emerging markets on Italian exports has increased:
from 15.1% to 19.5%.
Among the areas that are growing:
South Korea;
Thailand;
Romania;
Colombia;
Peru;
United Arab Emirates;
Kazakhstan;
Poland.
For many companies, the future will not be to replace the United States but to reduce their dependence on it.
6. The strongest companies are the best organized ones
One of the strongest findings of the week concerns corporate management.
Analyses of the main Italian wineries show that:
over 50% of companies are experiencing reductions in revenues and margins;
financial difficulties increase;
the importance of cash management is growing.
The companies that resist best are those that have:
structured governance;
management control;
financial planning;
diversified exports;
organized sales force.
Real estate assets or the value of vineyards are no longer enough.
The ability to generate liquidity is increasingly important.
7. Innovation, research and artificial intelligence
One of the most positive pieces of news comes from the Wine Research Team.
Research projects worth approximately 27 million euros have been activated, dedicated to:
sustainability;
production efficiency;
data management;
artificial intelligence;
new technologies applied to the vineyard and the cellar.
AI is not seen as a replacement for humans but as a decision support.
Companies that invest in data management will have significant advantages in terms of:
efficiency;
sustainability;
cost reduction;
competitiveness.
8. Wine remains the leader in Italian agri-food
Despite the slowdown, wine remains the leading sector of Italian agri-food exports.
In 2025:
wine district exports: 6.4 billion euros;
absolute leadership among all Italian agri-food sectors.
Some territories still show excellent performances:
Friuli: 7%;
Bolzano: 1.9%;
Bresciano: 27.9%.
A sign that the market continues to reward areas capable of innovating and differentiating themselves.
The Italian wine sector continues to experience profound transformation. This week’s data confirms that we are not simply facing a cyclical crisis, but rather a structural shift affecting consumption, exports, distribution models, communication, wine tourism, and production management.
Italian wine remains a world power, but it must adapt.
Italy maintains its international leadership thanks to a unique heritage of territories, denominations, biodiversity, and globally recognized quality. The sector continues to represent one of the most important assets of the Made in Italy agri-food industry and is confirmed by the support of institutions, supply chain organizations, and international markets.
The message that emerges forcefully from the contributions of producers, analysts, winemakers, and associations is clear: Italian wine must no longer focus solely on volume growth, but on value creation, economic sustainability, and the ability to understand new consumers.
Exports: Traditional markets slow, emerging markets grow
Exports continue to be the main driver of the sector’s growth, but the first quarter of 2026 still highlights significant tensions.
The data from the UIV Observatory show:
extra-EU exports of approximately 1 billion euros
drop in value of approximately -11%
United States at -20.5%
China still slowing down sharply
Canada on the rise
Japan in strong growth
Mexico, Brazil, Russia and Vietnam among the most dynamic markets
The American market continues to pose the main challenge, primarily due to the effects of tariffs and the decline in domestic consumption. However, Prosecco and numerous premium labels are maintaining positive performances.
At the same time, there is a growing awareness that the future of Italian wine will depend on the ability to diversify markets. Vietnam, Thailand, South Korea, India, Mercosur, Mexico, Colombia, Poland, and Romania are emerging as strategic areas with high growth potential.
The Vietnamese leg of the “Wines Experience” project confirms this very direction: tapping into new markets before they become mature and highly competitive.
Production: avoiding excesses to protect value
One of the most important topics that emerged this week concerns supply management.
Lamberto Frescobaldi sent a very clear message:
Producing more than the market can absorb risks depressing prices along the entire supply chain.
The high stocks present in many wine-growing areas are pushing some denominations to consider reducing yields for the next harvest.
The strategy is no longer to maximize the quantity produced, but to preserve the economic value of the wine and the sustainability of the companies.
This issue becomes particularly sensitive in areas with a strong viticultural vocation such as Piedmont, where agricultural organizations report situations in which the price of grapes risks falling below production costs, jeopardizing the profitability of businesses and the social stability of rural areas.
Consumption: the problem is not the wine, but the consumer
The most important change concerns consumer behavior.
According to Nomisma Wine Monitor:
usual consumption decreases
occasional consumption increases
Consumption related to social moments is growing
the role of wine as an everyday drink is decreasing
the demand for experiences is increasing
Over the last twenty years, the traditional Mediterranean model has progressively weakened.
Young people don’t reject wine, but they experience it differently:
they seek authenticity
they want simple languages
they favor experiences over technical knowledge
they want inclusiveness and accessibility
they are sensitive to the quality-price ratio
The real challenge for the sector is not convincing young people to drink wine, but making it culturally relevant to the new generations.
For this reason, projects dedicated to Gen Z are multiplying, aiming to simplify communication and eliminate the perception of wine as an elitist product or reserved for experts.
Wine tourism: the engine that continues to grow
While traditional sales are slowing, wine tourism continues to record very positive results.
Data from the ilGolosario Wine Tour Observatory highlights that:
Over 60% of wineries increase direct sales thanks to wine tourism
82% of visitors choose experiences integrated between wine, gastronomy and territory
approximately 40% of companies plan new investments in hospitality
Millennials represent the fastest growing segment
The modern visitor is not just looking for a tasting.
Near:
territory
landscape
culture
gastronomy
hospitality
authenticity
The wineries that grow the most are those that manage to transform wine into experience and the territory into a story.
Wine tourism thus confirms its position as one of the main tools for creating value for the Italian wine sector.
Cooperation: a pillar of Italian wine
The week also highlighted the strategic importance of cooperation.
Italian agri-food cooperatives:
generate approximately 38 billion euros in turnover
represent over 20% of Made in Italy agri-food products
they produce over 60% of Italian wine
they export approximately 8 billion euros
The cooperative model continues to represent one of the most effective tools for bringing together production, investment, innovation, and sales force, especially in a time of growing international competition.
Climate change, innovation and identity
The sector also continues to face structural challenges:
climate change
water resources management
sustainability
agronomic innovation
digitalization
generational transition
Future competitiveness will depend on companies’ ability to integrate innovation and territorial identity without losing authenticity.
As Renzo Cotarella emphasized, Italian wine has already undergone its major revolutions. Today, the key is to evolve, understand consumers, and better communicate the true value of its products.
This is no longer just a normal market fluctuation, but a structural shift involving consumption, exports, geopolitics, the social perception of wine, and the economic sustainability of the entire supply chain.
The Italian wine sector is going through one of the most complex phases of recent decades.
The message emerging forcefully this week from the Italian wine world is clear: wine can no longer simply defend itself. It must once again become a leader in change.
At the heart of the debate was Piero Mastroberardino’s speech at the inauguration of the Academic Year of the Academy of Vine and Wine, which lucidly captured the current state of the sector.
Italian wine today finds itself caught between:
global decline in consumption,
geopolitical pressures,
trade tensions,
inflation,
transformation of consumer habits,
increasingly aggressive health campaigns,
increasing logistics and energy costs,
risk of abandonment of the vineyards.
Yet, precisely within this critical phase, new strategic opportunities also emerge.
Global consumption is declining, but Italian wine remains central
According to OIV data recalled during the week, world wine consumption in 2024 fell to 214 million hectolitres (-3%).
The United States remains the world’s leading market in terms of overall consumption, but is showing signs of slowdown and significant instability related to tariffs and inflation. Italy, however, remains among the countries with the highest per capita consumption in the world and continues to play a central role in international wine culture.
The real transformation, however, concerns the consumption model:
we drink less,
you choose better,
the premium increases,
“daily wine” drops.
Italian large-scale retail trade confirms this trend:
volumes down (-2.7%),
almost stable value,
growth in the bands above 5 euros,
strong hold of sparkling wines,
decline in entry-level wines.
Today’s consumer is looking for:
quality,
territoriality,
identity,
experience,
perceived value.
He no longer buys wine “automatically”.
Sparkling wines and high-end wines drive the market
The week confirmed the consolidation of a very clear trend: the Italian wine that grows best is that with a strong premium identity.
The case of the Lunelli Group is a concrete example:
revenues of 134 million euros,
exports under pressure,
defended marginality,
high-end oriented strategy,
focus on quality Classic Method and Superior Prosecco.
Brands like:
Ferrari Trento
Bisol1542
they are increasingly focusing on:
high positioning,
Qualified Horeca,
premium markets,
brand value.
The message is clear: in the new global scenario, the winners are not those who produce more, but those who manage to build perceived value.
Geopolitics and the Hormuz Crisis: Wine Enters an Era of Permanent Uncertainty
One of the most pressing issues of the week concerns the effect of the international crisis on Italian wine.
Tension in the Hormuz area is generating:
increasing energy costs,
logistical increases,
rising cost of glass,
difficulties in maritime transport,
slowdown in exports to the Middle East and Asia.
Many large Italian companies are already registering:
orders suspended,
blocked containers,
increase in operating costs,
pressure on marginality.
Among the groups that have expressed concern:
Angelini Wines
Cevico Lands
Masi Agricola
Fantini Group
Donnafugata
The main risk today is not only the slowdown of the markets, but the loss of competitiveness caused by increasing costs along the entire supply chain.
Many operators also believe that increasing price lists could be a strategic mistake, because the international consumer is already under inflationary pressure.
Exports: a challenging scenario but new global opportunities
The United States remains the most sensitive market:
Italian exports in decline,
tariffs still unstable,
reducing imports in key states such as New York, California and Texas.
France is also suffering greatly:
sharp drop in average prices in the US,
reduction in exports,
difficulties on premium French wines.
But within this instability, new strategic directions emerge:
Mercosur,
India,
Australia,
Southeast Asia,
high-growth emerging markets.
Italy today appears better positioned than other competitors thanks to:
strong territorial diversification,
ability to cover different groups,
growth of the image of Made in Italy,
increase of Italian leadership in international markets.
In twenty years, Italian wine has gone from being the leader in 9 world markets to 46 markets.
The relationship between wine and society is changing
The cultural theme is now central.
Wine today is not just fighting a commercial battle, but also a narrative and identity battle.
Health campaigns, especially in Europe, are changing the perception of wine as a product, especially among young consumers.
The Italian supply chain, however, reacts with a very clear position:
distinguish between moderate consumption and abuse,
defend wine as an element of the Mediterranean Diet,
enhance conviviality, territory and culture.
Italy is trying to shift the paradigm:
from “wine to defend” to “wine to promote”.
Important in this regard is the institutional campaign supported by the Italian government together with the wine industry, with the aim of bringing wine back to the center of the Italian cultural narrative.
Cooperation and the risk of abandoning vineyards
Another strategic theme that emerged forcefully is the growing risk of vineyard abandonment.
The economic crisis in the sector is hitting hardest:
marginal areas,
heroic viticulture,
small producers,
historic hilly territories.
Italian wine cooperatives are becoming the true social bulwark of the system.
Cooperative wineries and consortia are taking action:
taking over abandoned vineyards,
by financially supporting winemakers,
preserving landscape and biodiversity,
promoting generational turnover.
Among the most active entities:
Rauscedo Winery
Valpolicella Negrar Winery
Valdobbiadene Producers’ Cellar
Tudernum Social Winery
Winemakers of Morellino di Scansano
The issue is not only agricultural:
Without vineyards, the economy, environmental protection, tourism, and territorial identity are lost.
CMO Wine and Investments: Over 323 Million to Support the Sector
Important signals are arriving on the support policy front.
For the 2026/2027 campaign, Italy will have at its disposal:
323.9 million euros CMO Wine,
of which:
98 million for international promotion,
144 million for vineyard renovation,
over 57 million in investments.
The Piedmont Region is also very active, having allocated over 7.6 million euros for international promotion, wine tourism, and territorial development.
The public strategy today focuses on:
internationalization,
territorial branding,
innovation,
research,
sustainability,
coordinated promotion.
Italian wine closes the week with a complex picture, but not without prospects.
On the one hand, there are clear signs of pressure on markets, consumption, and exports, especially to the United States; on the other, a more strategic approach to the sector is gaining ground, based on the quality, positioning, adaptability, and cultural value of Italian wine.
The underlying theme this week is clear: the sector is not going through an easy phase, but it still has the extraordinary assets to remain competitive. Strong territories, recognized appellations, consolidated brands, international leadership in many categories, and growing integration with tourism, restaurants, and lifestyle continue to make wine one of the pillars of Made in Italy.
In terms of sentiment, the strongest message conveyed at the launch of Vinitaly 2026 was one of responsible optimism. The testimonies of iconic figures in modern Italian wine, from Piero Antinori to Marco Caprai, from José Rallo to Paolo Damilano, and from Gaetano Marzotto, portray a sector that has already endured profound crises and has regenerated from them. The reference to the fortieth anniversary of the methanol scandal was not merely commemorative: it served as a reminder that one of the most difficult moments for Italian wine also marked the beginning of a structural modernization based on controls, quality, international reputation, and a new awareness among businesses, distributors, and consumers.
And it is precisely this industrial memory that today fuels a less defensive vision of the future. The widespread belief is that Italian wine must stop portraying itself merely as a sector under pressure and instead return to more strongly promoting its unique strengths: territoriality, culture, conviviality, biodiversity, narrative ability, and the connection to Italian cuisine. In other words, the sector cannot simply endure the slowdown, but must use this phase to better reposition itself.
The most sensitive issue remains exports, particularly to the US. The start of 2026 appears challenging: the first few months show a sharp decline in value, with January reported at -35% and the first two months projected to decline by 28% compared to 2025. American tariffs, the euro-dollar exchange rate, the slowdown in consumption, the slowdown in out-of-home sales, and a general instability in inventories and distribution are all weighing on the situation. The United States remains a key market for Italian wine, accounting for 23% of the sector’s total exports, and for this very reason, the focus is on the utmost.
The emerging response, however, isn’t simply a wait-and-see approach. There’s open talk of a special promotional plan to relaunch Italian wine in the US, involving institutions, ICE (Italian Trade Agency), Coldiretti (Italian Farmers’ Federation), Filiera Italia (Italian Supply Chain), American buyers, and trade operators. The strategic message is twofold: on the one hand, we must defend Italy’s presence in the world’s leading market; on the other, we must accelerate geographical diversification to reduce dependence on a single market. In this scenario, Vinitaly confirms itself not only as a trade fair, but also as a platform for the industrial and commercial policy of Italian wine.
Within the domestic market, however, more nuanced and less negative signs are emerging than often reported. The UIV-Vinitaly Observatory reports a very significant finding: in Italy, wine consumers remain just under 30 million, equal to 55% of the population. The audience, therefore, is holding steady. The number of consumers isn’t declining; rather, the way they consume is changing. Daily consumption is declining and occasional consumption is increasing, with the ratio now reversed compared to the past: 61% drink wine occasionally, while 39% consume it daily. This is a sign of a structural transformation in the relationship with wine, increasingly less tied to habit and increasingly focused on choice, occasion, and quality.
This shift should be viewed less alarmistly and more progressively. Italians drink less, but seek higher quality, greater gratification, and a more informed relationship with the product. Moderation is therefore part of the sector’s new balance, not necessarily a sign of disaffection. The problem isn’t that wine is disappearing from consumer behavior; the problem is that the marketing language is changing, and those who sell wine must adapt.
Perhaps the most interesting data of the week concerns young people. Contrary to a narrative that has been prevalent for years, young people are not primarily responsible for the decline in consumption. Indeed, the only significant increase in wine penetration is among the 18-24 age group: from 39% to 47% of the category compared to 2011. This share is still numerically small, but strategically very important, as it indicates that wine continues to enter the aspirational universe of the new generations.
Young people’s relationship with wine, however, is radically different from that of older generations. It’s not based on everyday life, but on curiosity, taste, image, discovery, and experiences outside the home. For Gen Z, wine is enjoyable, represents sophistication, and is associated with well-being and relationships. This explains why young people spend more on average on out-of-home consumption and are particularly active in restaurants and bars. This is a crucial strategic key: the future of wine lies less and less in the repetition of everyday gestures and more and more in the ability to create desirability, narrative, experience, and orientation.
Also of note is the reversal of some clichés about consumption preferences. The data shows that Prosecco remains the most versatile and powerful wine among Millennials, Gen Xers, and Boomers, confirming its role as a major contemporary consumer platform. But among younger consumers, a surprising trend emerges: Gen Z favors great Italian reds. Amarone, Barbaresco, Taurasi, Bolgheri, and Chianti top the list of preferences, demonstrating that red wines have by no means disappeared from the younger consumer’s horizons, as long as they are marketed correctly, with appropriate language, context, and advice.
This aspect has very concrete commercial implications. It means that the problem isn’t the product itself, but the way it’s positioned and presented. Younger people are proving more open to experimentation, more willing to seek advice, more inclined to read online reviews, and more receptive to alternative formats and packaging. This means the supply chain must work harder at the point of sale, in restaurants, on digital communication, and on the readability of the product offering. Wine must not just be good: it must be understandable, accessible in its narrative, and consistent with the language of the contemporary consumer.
On the overall economic level, the sector nevertheless retains enormous importance. Wine is worth approximately €14 billion in revenue, net of related industries, with a positive trade balance of €7.2 billion and an overall impact of €45 billion when considering indirect effects. The area under vine, the number of businesses, employment, and production confirm that it is not just an agricultural sector, but an economic and territorial system of primary national importance. For this reason, too, the current situation requires a calm, non-emotional approach: 2025 was challenging but relatively resilient, while 2026 remains entirely unpredictable.
In the domestic market, large-scale retail trade shows stability in value but declining volumes, once again confirming the “less is more” paradigm. Sparkling wines continue to be the most dynamic category, while reds are struggling and whites remain largely stagnant. Rosés are growing, but still at low levels. Prosecco remains the most resilient and cross-sectional phenomenon, while the entire sparkling wine segment continues to play an important countercyclical role for the sector.
The dynamics of fine wine are also interesting. The secondary market for fine wines appears to be slowly stabilizing, with signs of recovery expected towards the end of 2026. After a long period of price correction, lower interest rates and increased interest from European operators are bringing renewed attention to the collectible wine segment. Despite a still cautious outlook and a more uncertain position for the US, fine wine appears to be emerging from its weakest phase. For high-end Italian wine, this is a sign worth watching carefully, as it confirms that the value of great terroirs and iconic labels can once again become central, even in a selective environment.
Another theme that emerged forcefully is the growing need to integrate wine with other worlds: tourism, cuisine, experience, landscape, and culture. This is now an irreversible trend. Companies that can present themselves not just as producers of wines, but as interpreters of local areas and lifestyles, will be best equipped to navigate the new market cycle. Italian wine retains a unique strength: it sells not just product, but a combination of origin, story, hospitality, reputation, and Italianness. This is where a crucial part of future competitiveness will be played out.
This week also highlights the mistake of indiscriminately cutting back on promotion, events, and visibility. In a complex market environment, rationalizing investments is necessary, but reducing commercial presence and market presence risks further weakening brands. Promotion must be made more selective, more targeted, and more measurable, but it cannot be sacrificed. The sector needs more strategic presence, not less.