This week captures a sector entering a phase of harsh reorganization: more selective demand, high inventories, pressure on prices (even for “fine wines”), and an institutional response that attempts to restore flexibility to a system built for “always” growth.

The underlying message is simple and a little ruthless: it’s no longer enough to produce well; we need to manage volumes, channels, and positioning with industrial discipline.

1) “Big player” shock: Treasury Wine Estates slowing down (global signal)

The Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) case is a bell that rings loudly because it concerns a giant with premium and super-premium brands. In the first half of the 2026 fiscal year (ending December 31, 2025), TWE recorded:

• operating income at AUD 236.4 million ( -39.6% ),
• net revenues at 1.3 billion AUD ( -16% )
• statutory NPAT loss of AUD 649.4 million,
• AUD 770.5 million write-down on US assets (higher than expected).

The strategic interpretation is clear: the negative trends in the US and China are also affecting those perceived as “protected” by their positioning. TWE’s response is a multi-year plan (” TWE Ascent “) targeting AUD 100 million per year in cost reduction and a portfolio review along three lines: leadership in luxury reds , growth in premium whites , and a push for low/no alcohol and “modern refreshment.” In other words: the market is rewarding agility and product line innovation, not reputational inertia.

2) EU exports: drop in bottled still wines, and DOPs pay the highest price

On the European perimeter, the data (February 2022 vs October 2025) show:

• EU exports of still bottled wines in value -2.8% : from €16.1 to €15.7 billion (approximately €460 million ).
• the most affected part is the bottled PDO : -€424 million (almost the entire overall loss).
• Bottled PGI : -€71.8 million (-2.6%).
• without indication : -15.8 million € (-1.7%).
• only growth: bottled varietals €51.7 million (6.5%).
  In volume, bottled PDO wines recorded a decline of 3.3 million hl (-17.5%) . Despite this, as of October 2025, they still accounted for 71.9% of EU exports (PGI 17.2%; remainder 11%).

Message: The PDO “locomotive” remains central, but it is suffering the most as demand shrinks and becomes price-sensitive. The market, at this stage, is showing greater traction in categories perceived as more immediate, understandable, and flexible .

3) Piedmont: Barolo/Barbaresco “bubble” and falling grape prices (the premium is not immune)

The most severe focus in Italy comes from Piedmont: consortia and supply chains describe a crisis comparable (in severity) to 2008, with full cellars and declining demand. Some key data:

• average consumption indicated to drop to 20 litres/year per capita ,
• Barolo stock: from 65 million bottles (2019) to 74.9 million (15%),
• Barbaresco stock: from 19 million to 21.8 million (14.7%),
• grape prices (Cuneo Chamber of Commerce): -32% Barolo , -24% Barbaresco , with significant drops also on Nebbiolo d’Alba/Langhe Nebbiolo and Barbera.

Two sides emerge in the debate: those calling for extraordinary measures (distillation of surpluses, exit incentives) and those viewing the correction as “necessary” after years of excessively high prices. In the background, a reputational risk: the compression of the value of fine wine through channels and pricing policies (foreign retail, private labels) that can erode its identity and pricing power.

4) Italy: certifications and product mix (Valoritalia) confirm the shift in consumption

Valoritalia’s numbers (updated to December 31, 2025) describe a 2025 of consolidation:

• total certified bottlings -2.1% vs 2024,
• DOC/DOCG 1% , IGT -12% ,
• by type: sparkling wines 1% , rosés 5.7% , still whites 2.7% , reds -13% ,
• Italian wine exports (Nomisma Wine Monitor recall): approximately -3% in value in 2025,
• Large-scale retail trade in Italy: volumes -2.8% ; still/sparkling wines -3.8% , sparkling wines 3.1% .

Two heavy structural notes:

• fragility of micro-denominations (many, small, more exposed to fluctuations),
• highly fragmented sector: the majority bottles small volumes, but the concentration “at the top” remains significant.

5) Policies and rules: EU “redesigns” the sector (more flexibility and less friction on exports)

The EU reform adopted by the Council aims to make the sector more competitive and resilient:

• tools for rebalancing supply/demand (including eradication in case of excess),
• planting rights without a “dry expiry date”, but with a ten-yearly review ,
• climate support up to 80% of eligible costs (mitigation/adaptation),
• simpler and more harmonized labelling, with a push towards digital/pictograms ,
• Official definitions for low/no alcohol : “non-alcoholic” <0.5%; “0.0%” <0.05%; “reduced alcohol content” for significant reductions,
• for extra-EU exports: exemption from ingredients and nutritional declaration (reduction of bureaucracy),
• more support for wine tourism and phytosanitary protection (e.g. flavescence dorée).

At the same time, in Italy UIV reports growing stocks (61 million hl of wine, almost 68 million hl including musts) and calls for production potential to be made more flexible with a revision of the Consolidated Law.

6) International scenario: tariffs, cuts and “crisis distillations” (USA and France)

• In the US, the tariff analysis describes a year of extra costs, struggling exports, and trade hostility , with impacts especially on exporters and those dependent on foreign supplies (bottles, barrels, machinery). Even where sales are holding up, they often do so at lower margins .
• US giant Gallo announces further closures and cuts (93 workers affected, effective April 15) due to evolving demand and available capacity.
• In France, a textbook measure for managing surpluses has been implemented: €40 million to distill 1.2 million hl of surplus red and rosé wines, to restore balance before the 2026 harvest.

The international picture converges: when stocks become a systemic problem, supply chains move from “marketing” to “surgery”.

7) Markets and promotion: more teams and more geographies (emerging UK)

On the trade front, Italy is pushing the idea of creating a system: institutions and platforms (Vinitaly/Veronafiere and ICE/ITA) are aiming to consolidate established markets and open up new ones. In parallel, a platform like “Wine Experience” is being established and strengthened, with a 2026 road show starting in London (April 26–27, 2026) and targeting emerging markets like Vietnam and Mexico , with the goal of creating structured promotional and matching opportunities.

8) Culture-consumption: the generational divide remains a real (not moral) issue

The debate on young people and wine, despite the provocations, brings the industry back to a point of truth: consumption is changing for social, health, and lifestyle reasons. Wine must therefore work on usage opportunities , languages, formats, and products (including low- and no-cost options), without losing its identity but without appealing only to those who are already “converted.”

The week of February 16–20, 2026, shows a sector that is holding steady in “certified” quality volumes, but experiencing growing industrial tension: weak global demand, slowing exports, bulk prices under pressure and inventories that continue to rise despite a “contained” 2025 harvest.

The result is a two-speed Italian wine industry: DOP, whites, and sparkling wines are more resilient, while reds and “generic/IGT” labels are suffering much more.

In the background, a structural theme emerges: fragmentation of denominations and, simultaneously, greater industrial concentration in certified volumes.

1) Bottling 2025: -2.1% overall, but the DOP range is growing

Valoritalia data (updated to December 31, 2025) indicates an overall decline of -2.1% compared to 2024 in certified bottling. However, the message is not a “collapse,” but rather a stabilization : volumes remain higher than pre-Covid , and the contraction is considered limited .

Inside that -2.1% is the most interesting part:

• DOC/DOCG: 1% (on an annual basis and compared to the average of the last three years) → “organized” quality continues to act as a driving force, especially for exports.
• IGT: -12% compared to 2024 (and -10% on the average of the previous three years) → net decline of the largest and often most “commodity” or least identifiable segment.

Strategic reading: the market is rewarding identity, recognisability and positioning , penalising what is perceived as “interchangeable”.

2) The demand is changing: whites, rosés, and sparkling wines are ahead; reds are slowing down significantly.

The typological divide is now structural and will become even more evident in 2025:

• Sparkling wines: 1%
• Rosé: 5.7%
• Still whites: 2.7%
• Rossi: over -13%

What it really means: It’s not just “trend.” It’s a shift in consumption (in Italy and around the world) toward fresher, less demanding wines , often more compatible with new drinking styles and a growing awareness of alcohol, lightness, and immediacy. Regions historically associated with full-bodied reds risk paying a double price: declining demand and stagnant inventory.

3) Micro-denominations: many acronyms, little critical mass (and more vulnerability)

The appellation breakdown by size is a key point this week. The micro-appellations (under 10,000 hl) are:

• 70% of certified DOs , but
• only 2% of bottled volumes , and in 2025 they will be -7.2% (worse than average).

The dynamics by size range show that critical mass matters :

• 10–20,000 hl: 3%
• 20–50,000 hl: -4.7%
• 50–150,000 hl: 4%
• over 150,000 hl: -2.7%

Diagnosis: Micro-DOs struggle to cope with market fluctuations, costs, and commercial complexity. Having a name isn’t enough: you need a strong structure (a strong consortium, planning, promotion, and channels).

4) Production structure: hyper-fragmented at the base, concentrated at the top

The numbers confirm a sector made up of many small operators and very few large ones:

• over 75% of certified bottlers sell less than 65,000 bottles
• only 171 companies (3.2%) exceed 1.3 million bottles
• the first 5 operators bottle 18% of the total certified volumes, despite being 0.1% in number

Implication: competition is no longer just “product vs. product,” but increasingly an organized system vs. fragmented system . Small businesses must choose: either they become ultra-specialized and premium , or they merge (commercially or industrially).

5) The major industrial hub: stable production, but growing inventories

Here lies the “paradox” that is squeezing margins and financial serenity.

• 2025 harvest: 44.38 million hl (approximately 0.7% compared to 2024)
• Wine stocks: 61 million hl ( 6% per year)
• Wine and must stocks: almost 68 million hl ( 7.5% )

According to UIV, after two campaigns of just over 44 million hl, even these volumes are no longer sustainable if demand is not absorbed.

Where the surplus is concentrated:

• common/varietal wines: 11.3%
• White IGT: 10.5%
• DOP: 3.6% (more stable, but still increasing)

Immediate effect on the market:

• Cellar sales: -20% compared to 2024 peaks
• Bulk prices: weak, with common whites down over 10% in several areas

Brutal translation: more inventory = more idle capital = more pressure on prices and liquidity, especially for those operating in segments less protected by brands/names.

6) Exports and markets: relative stability, but the direction is still negative

The international picture remains complex. The aforementioned analyses (Nomisma Wine Monitor) report a 3% decline in the value of Italian exports , in a context where other competitors (Australia, Chile, France) are performing worse. It’s a “victory on points,” not a triumph.

On the US front and trade tensions, UIV reports:

• US shipments 2025 estimated -9% in value
• extra-EU around -6.5%
• many companies have reduced their price lists by ~10% to defend their shares (margins under stress)

At the same time, in the US alcohol market, wine is declining (-3.5%) , while ready-to-drink products are growing strongly (16.4%), i.e. simpler, cheaper and “immediate” to enjoy.

The underlying message: simply “being present” in traditional markets isn’t enough. We need to reallocate our energies to third-party markets , trade agreements (Mercosur/India), and a more aggressive and continuous presence on the markets.

7) Data, control and planning: TESSA and the new reporting system for Consortia

An often underestimated but strategic point: data quality becomes a competitive lever.

Valoritalia is pushing the TESSA platform (developed with Microsoft) to process the movements of over 90,000 companies across 219 certified denominations , and is introducing monthly reporting for Consortia with indicators on:

• sampling, bottling
• bulk sales/transfers
• downgrades/reclassifications
• analytical parameters, stocks, volumes
• socioeconomic indicators (members/non-members, concentration indices)

Why it matters: in 2026, those who know how to plan (supply, yields, inventories, channels) will win, not those who “suffer” the market.

What this week really tells us (in one sentence)

Italian wine enters 2026 with a supply chain that relies on organised quality , but must face an industrial challenge that cannot be postponed: too many inventories compared to demand , with the need for production flexibility, organisational consolidation and commercial repositioning .