on the main news in the world of wine and wineries, with a strategic eye for those working in the sector.

Highlights

• Italian wine exports in the first half of 2025 showed a slight resilience: 1.5% in value (≈ €2.8 billion) and 2.1% in volume (≈ 703.5 million litres) despite trade challenges.
• On the global market, wine is experiencing a slowdown: in the first half of 2025, the total value fell by -2.3% to €16.7 billion, with a volume drop of -3.7% (4.6 billion litres), and the average price was €3.57/litre.
• Italian harvest estimates indicate a potential harvest of 47.4 million hectoliters in 2025, an 8% increase compared to 2024, with grapes in good physiological condition and peaks of territorial excellence.
• However, not all areas perform equally: the Lambrusco area (Modena-Reggio) records a 17.2% drop in production compared to 2024, despite the high quality reported by Confcooperative.
• In Tuscany, 2.4 million hectolitres are estimated for 2025 (compared to 2.7 in 2024), with an increase in the incidence of organic wine (13–15%).
• The use of artificial intelligence (AI) in the wine sector is gaining ground to optimize irrigation, canopy monitoring, resource management, and predictive modeling in food and wine markets and tourism.
• Among the awards, Gambero Rosso’s “Vini d’Italia 2026” guide awarded 508 Tre Bicchieri and 50 rare wines, signaling a qualitative ferment and the growing importance of the top segment.

M&A Radar

Prices & Harvest (mini box)

on the main news in the world of wine and wineries, with a strategic eye for those working in the sector.

Highlights

• In Italy, “Cantina Italia” stocks as of September 30, 2025, amount to 36 million hectolitres of wine (-9.6% compared to July, 1.3% on an annual basis) awaiting the harvest.
• The bulk wine market is holding up: despite a drop in volume, the value remains around 1.2 billion euros , thanks to an average price increase of 2.1%, which brings the average price to around €0.78/litre .
• Italian wine exports in the first half of 2025 grew by 1.5% in value (≈ €2.8 billion) and 2.1% in volume (≈ 703.5 million litres), a sign of resilience despite US tariffs and trade turbulence.
• In France, estimated output for 2025 has been reduced to approximately 36 million hectoliters, down 1% year-on-year and 16% compared to the five-year average, due to summer heatwaves.
• The adoption of alternative packaging such as bag-in-box is accelerating, especially in the UK and Northern European markets, thanks to advantages in post-opening freshness and logistical sustainability.
• Innovation: Artificial intelligence applications in the wine industry are growing—from vineyard monitoring to resource optimization to personalized wine tourism.
• A recent case of recognized excellence: Vecchie Terre di Montefili (Chianti) stands out in international reviews for its stylistic consistency, quality, and authenticity.

M&A Radar

Prices & Harvest (mini box)

on the main news in the world of wine and wineries, with a strategic eye for those working in the sector.

Highlights

• In Italy, the 2025 harvest is estimated at 47.4 million hectolitres , 8% compared to 2024, with healthy grapes and positive quality prospects.
• The bulk wine market is holding up: the value remains at ~€1.2 billion, with an average price increase of 2.1% (€0.78/litre) despite declining volumes.
• Globally, Q1 2025 wine exports are down ‑4.4% in volume, but the pace of recent shipments signals an ongoing recovery.
• In France, the 2025 production forecast has been reduced to 36 million hectolitres (-1% year-on-year, -16% compared to the five-year average), due to summer heat waves.
• Australian company Treasury Wine Estates has suspended its A$200 million buyback and withdrawn its 2026/27 guidance, citing sales difficulties for the Penfolds brand in China and operational issues in the US.
• A regeneration of packaging and distribution models is underway: “bag-in-box” is experiencing strong growth in the UK and other markets, both for its convenience and its sustainable profile.
• On the technological front, new research shows advanced applications of artificial intelligence for viticulture, spectral analysis of wine (classification, prediction), and personalized wine tourism.

M&A Radar

Prices & Harvest (mini box)

Additional Notes:

• Some areas have already harvested more than 75% of the expected potential; but in marginal areas yields are falling short of original forecasts.
• In France, the summer heat accelerated ripening but penalized volumetric development, pushing estimates downwards.
• The use of remote sensing techniques (SAR radar combined with optical indices) is gaining ground for monitoring biomass and phenological stages in the cellar with consistent data that is less sensitive to weather conditions.

on the main news in the world of wine and wineries, with a strategic eye for those working in the sector.

Recent Updates (5–7 points)

• In Italy, the estimate for the 2025 harvest converges on ~47.4 million hectolitres (8% vs 2024) and “very good / excellent” quality.
• However, Legacoop reports that final volumes could be lower than initial forecasts (~44 million hl) due to adverse weather conditions and reduced yields.
• The bulk wine market remains resilient: in the first six months of 2025, total world exports were 16.5 million hl (-2.3% on 2024), with the value stable at €1.2 billion thanks to an increase in average prices (2.1%).
• In Italy, wine exports in the first half of 2025 exceeded €2.8 billion, with an increase of 1.5% in value and 2.1% in volume.
• In the acquisitions segment, The Wine Group completed the acquisition of six brands (including Meiomi, SIMI, Woodbridge) and vineyards from Constellation Brands, strengthening its infrastructure capabilities.
• The macroeconomic environment is pushing wineries to adopt digital tools and innovations: research has emerged on the application of Artificial Intelligence in viticulture, production, and wine tourism to optimize sustainability and operations.
• In Tuscany, consortia (e.g. Chianti DOCG) have decided on yield reduction policies of 10–15% to protect the quality positioning of the brand.

M&A Radar

Prices & Harvest (mini box)

Harvest notes / agricultural conditions:

• In many regions, the harvest is more than 75% complete; some areas are seeing lower yields than initially forecast, contributing to a rebalancing of supply.
• In Tuscany, a drop from 2.7 to 2.4 million hl is expected for strategic reasons.
• In Veneto, an increase in production is expected: an estimated 100,000 tons compared to 2024.
• Variable climate: areas like Friuli report contrasting conditions but with promising aromatic results (low yields, balanced acidity).