(Italy & the world – for acquisition, divestment, and positioning decisions).
1. Key points 2025 (snapshot)
- Production & Harvest Italy 2025
- Joint estimate by Assoenologi–Ismea–UIV: 47.4 Mhl (8% vs 2024), a vintage defined as “excellent” in terms of quality.
- Alternative reading Legacoop: more conservative estimate ~44 Mhl , considered more realistic with the harvest almost completed.
- Inventory: The Real Elephant in the Room
- As of October 31, 2025, Italian warehouses recorded 44.5 Mhl of wine (almost an entire harvest), 23.8% vs. September 30 and 5.2% vs. October 31, 2024 .
- Over 62% of stocks are in the North → strong risk of pressure on bulk and generic DOCs.
- Bulk wine: prices holding up, demand not
- Global bulk market H1-2025: stable values (-0.3%) with average price ~0.78 €/L (2.1%) despite declining volumes.
- In Italy, recent reports confirm ~€0.78/L and “weak trade, cautious demand, high inventories”.
- Italian exports: selective, not generalized growth
- Some analyses for H1 2025 indicate a 1.5% value/2.1% volume ratio for the 12 main destinations; however, the year is uneven across markets and categories.
- The new 15% US tariffs could cost Italian companies >€300 million per year , with a strong impact on Prosecco, Pinot Grigio, Moscato, and Tuscan reds.
- Innovation as a discriminant of value
- 2025 studies confirm the growing use of AI, remote sensing, and automation in vineyards, wineries, and wine tourism: the tech component becomes a KPI in industrial assessments and due diligence.
2. M&A Radar (Italy – focus 2H 2025)
| Deal / Rumor | Parts | Geo | Strategic note | Source |
|---|
| Castel-Vins (Groupe Castel) acquires Tannico | Castel-Vins ↔ Tannic (from Campari & Moët Hennessy) | IT / EU | Wine e-commerce platform, 100% stake, strengthens digital channel and consumer data assets | |
| Torrevento reacquires 51% of its shares from Prosit Group. | Torrevento ↔ Prosit Group | Puglia (IT) | Fund exit, return to 100% family ownership: an interesting case of “renationalization” of control | |
| Caffo acquires the Valle Talloria branch (new “Casa Cinzano”) | Caffo Group 1915 ↔ Italian Wine Brands | Piedmont (IT) | Key production asset for Cinzano; spirits-wine synergies and industrial repositioning | |
3. Prices & Harvest – operational mini box
Italian Harvest 2025
- Realistic range: 44–47.4 Mhl , with consensus on good-excellent quality but strong heterogeneity by area.
- Substantial message: it’s not quantity that’s the problem, but how to position it in a context of stagnant consumption and full warehouses.
Stocks
- 44.5 Mhl of wine as of 10/31/2025 , 5.2% year on year.
- In fact, the system has almost two harvests in its belly between stock and new crop.
Grape prices / bulk (flash)
- Umbria (October):
- Sangiovese 26–30 €/q , Merlot/Cabernet 28–30 €/q , Sagrantino DOCG 100–140 €/q , with strong downward corrections vs 2023.
- Veneto / Vicenza DOC: grapes €40–60/q for white/red DOC.
- Bulk Italy: ~0.78 €/L , “not very active market, pressure on volumes”.
4. Strategic reading for acquisition / divestment / positioning
I’ll summarize the key implications for you as if you were evaluating an M&A dossier or reorganizing a winery portfolio:
- Multiples to be handled with care
- With 44.5 Mhl in the cellar and an abundant harvest, paying multiples based on “volume growth” logic is difficult to defend.
- It makes sense to reward: brand equity, premium/PDO segments, export capacity, level of digitalization and automation , not mere hectolitres.
- Assets “full of wine” ≠ rich assets
- High stocks today are a working capital risk , not a guarantee:
- A clear plan for intelligent disposal is needed (blend, B2B channel, opportunistic export)
- And, in parallel, I am redesigning the range so as not to repeat the same problem in 2026.
- Technology and channel become price drivers in deals
- Operations like Tannico–Castel show that the value moves towards:
- end customer control (data)
- ability to do dynamic pricing and assortment
- and technological assets that can be integrated into the supply chain.
- In target wineries, ask yourself: how much is the digital component worth compared to the hectares?
- Export: mandatory diversification
- US tariffs and macro volatility force us to:
- review country mix (strengthen Northern Europe, Canada, APAC, emerging markets)
- rethink the role of bulk as a tactical lever (spot/medium-term contracts) and not as the only safety valve.
5. “To-do list” for a board in the next 6–9 months
- For buyers (industrial buyers or fund):
- favor targets with strong brands, healthy exports, a premium mix , a low inventory/turnover ratio, and investments already underway in AI/automation.
- discount overstock risk in multiples, building earn-outs linked to inventory reduction and margin growth, not just turnover.
- For those selling or looking for partners:
- clean up the profile: inventory plan, range redesign, margin KPIs per label , digital roadmap (CRM, D2C, well-managed e-labels).
- present itself as a ready-made platform (processes, governance, data), not as a “cellar full of wine”.
- For consortia and territories:
- avoid a price war on generic drugs;
- focus on performance disciplines, clear segmentation, credible storytelling , supported by data and not just by territorial rhetoric.
