This is not an irreversible structural crisis, but a profound transformation of the global market, of consumption, and of the ways in which wine is produced, distributed, and described.
Italian wine is going through one of the most delicate phases of recent years.
The week of May 25-29, 2026, clearly confirms that the sector is entering a new historical phase: more selective, more competitive, and much less predictable than in the past.
Exports: signs of improvement, but the situation remains fragile
The main focus continues to be exports.
Data for the first quarter of 2026 still show a negative situation for Italian wine in non-EU markets, although March showed a slight improvement compared to the first two months of the year.
According to the Italian Wine Union Observatory, non-EU exports of Italian wine closed the quarter at nearly €1 billion, down 11% in value compared to 2025, but improving on the 16% decline recorded in the initial two months.
The main problem remains the American market.
The United States, the world’s leading market for Italian wine, continues to slow down sharply:
Italian wine exports to the US: -20.5% in the first quarter of 2026
Italian sparkling wines in the US: -27% in value
total volumes in the US: -7.2%
Consumer prices increased by 4.3% despite discounts applied by Italian wineries to offset duties
The combined effect of:
American tariffs,
slowdown in consumption,
geopolitical tensions,
excess stock,
increasing logistics costs
is creating strong pressure on the entire supply chain.
However, some interesting signals also emerge.
Italian exports are not currently supported by historic markets, but by emerging and high-potential markets:
China
Brazil
Mexico
Russia
in fact, they show significant increases in demand.
At the same time, Prosecco continues to demonstrate greater resilience than other categories, especially in the premium segment and in the international HoReCa sector.
Italy remains the world leader in wine
Despite the market slowdown, Italy confirms its global manufacturing leadership.
According to the Mediobanca Research Area report:
Italian production 2025: 44.4 million hectoliters
global share: 19.7%
world’s leading exporter by volume
second largest exporter in the world by value after France
The sector continues to represent a strategic asset for Made in Italy, with a trade balance that increased from €2.7 billion in 2005 to €7.2 billion in 2025.
But behind these numbers, some very evident critical issues also emerge.
Turnover, margins and consumption are decreasing
2025 ended with:
turnover of top Italian players: -2.8%
EBITDA: -4.2%
net profit: -7.5%
exports: -3.4%
domestic market: -2.2%
Those who suffer the most are:
small and medium-sized companies,
the most capital intensive structures,
the middle range of the market.
Premium wine is holding up better, while the intermediate segment continues to lose strength.
Even traditional channels are showing difficulties:
Horeca slowing down,
wine shops in decline,
weak online,
wholesalers in contraction.
This confirms a trend that is now evident: the wine market is becoming more selective and less oriented towards large volumes.
Consumption is changing: less quantity, more experience
One of the most important changes concerns consumer behavior.
In recent years:
global wine consumption is decreasing,
attention to well-being is growing,
no-low alcohol increases,
the concept of “drink less but better” is strengthened.
This is also clearly seen in the aperitif phenomenon.
World Aperitivo Day 2026 confirms:
growth of premium aperitifs,
strong development of alcohol-free products,
increase in mixology,
search for lighter and more transversal convivial experiences.
Generation Z is approaching beverages in a completely different way than previous generations:
less traditional ritual,
more sociability,
more experience,
less historical fidelity to wine.
This forces the Italian wine sector to rethink its language, communication, and commercial approach.
Wine tourism: one of the true strategic levers of the future
In this scenario, one central theme emerges forcefully: wine tourism.
Today, Italian wine tourism is already worth over 3 billion euros and, according to many industry analyses, could exceed 5 billion in the coming years if the system is better structured.
The most interesting fact is that:
for many wineries, wine tourism already accounts for more than 20% of their turnover,
the most organised companies record significant increases in margins,
direct sales are growing,
increases customer loyalty.
The real Italian crux, however, remains the ability to create a system.
Many territories:
they communicate little together,
they do not integrate enough hospitality, wine and tourism,
they still have organizational shortcomings,
they are not fully structured on professional reception.
Yet Italy’s potential remains probably the strongest in the world:
unique wine biodiversity,
iconic territories,
gastronomic culture,
authenticity,
globally recognized landscapes.
Today, wine can no longer be just a bottle to sell.
It’s becoming more and more:
experience,
relation,
territory,
cultural identity.
And it is precisely here that many wineries will be able to build their economic future.
Luxury continues to spend
Also interesting is the signal coming from the Costa Smeralda, where wine continues to be seen as an element of status, luxury, and an exclusive experience.
Events like the Porto Cervo Wine & Food Festival show how the high-end segment remains very dynamic, especially in high-spending international tourism.
This confirms an increasingly evident dynamic:
the average market is suffering,
the premium one lasts better,
Super premium continues to grow in some contexts.
Final conclusions
Italian wine is not losing value.
The market is changing.
The model based primarily on volumes, traditional distribution and consolidated consumption today shows clear limitations.
The new phase of the sector requires:
greater selection,
production control,
strengthening of perceived value,
new communication languages,
more territorial identity,
greater integration between wine, tourism and hospitality.
The strongest companies in the coming years will likely be those capable of:
build a direct relationship with the consumer,
develop experiences,
invest in the brand,
to oversee wine tourism,
differentiate yourself on real quality,
work in a network with the local area.
Italy still has a huge competitive advantage: authenticity, history, biodiversity, and productive capacity.
But today it is no longer enough to produce excellent wine.
It needs to be told better.
We need to create experience.
We need to build value around the territory.
And it is precisely there that much of the future of Italian wine will be played out in the coming years.
The Italian wine sector continues to experience a complex phase, probably one of the most delicate in recent years.
The numbers confirm a market that is not in an irreversible structural crisis, but is undergoing a profound transformation made up of new consumption patterns, reduced volumes, pressure on margins, and changes in purchasing habits.
At the same time, new growth opportunities, new commercial geographies, and new consumption models are emerging that are reshaping the future of Italian and global wine.
According to the Mediobanca 2025 Report on leading Italian wineries, the slowdown in the sector is now evident even among large groups. Aggregate sales of the companies analyzed fell 2.8% compared to 2024, with exports weaker than the domestic market. Margins are particularly deteriorating: EBITDA -4.2%, net profit -7.5%, a sign of a cost structure that is increasingly difficult to sustain in a context of declining consumption and strong competitive pressure. The HoReCa sector, wine shops, wine bars, online sales, and the mid-market are particularly affected. Sparkling wines are holding up better, while organic wines are slowing, and no-low-alcohol wines remain marginal.
The international situation confirms the difficulties. OIV data show a very difficult global outlook for 2025: global wine trade will lose approximately €34 billion, global consumption will fall to its lowest levels since 1957, and international trade volumes will fall below 95 million hectoliters. The United States, France, and China are leading the global slowdown in consumption, while Europe continues to reduce vineyard areas and production to adapt to a less expansive market than in the past.
The main problem for Italian wine remains exports to the United States. In the twelve months following the introduction of US tariffs, the sector lost approximately €340 million, with volumes at their lowest levels in the last ten years. The first two months of 2026 still saw Italian exports decline by 13.3%, although February showed less negative signs than January. The US remains the primary market, but the pressure of tariffs, a weak dollar, and reduced consumption continues to weigh heavily on Italian companies.
Within this challenging scenario, however, some new strategic directions are beginning to emerge. Russia, China, and especially Brazil are showing significant signs of recovery. The emerging markets analyzed by Nomisma are projected to exceed €400 million in Italian wine imports in 2025, with growth of 4.3%. Countries such as Poland, Romania, Mexico, India, and the Czech Republic are becoming increasingly attractive areas for commercial diversification of Italian wine, especially for sparkling wines and bottled wines.
On the consumption front, the shift now appears structural. The dominant paradigm is becoming “less quantity, more quality.” Consumers aren’t stopping drinking wine, but they’re changing their approach: they’re drinking less often, choosing better, seeking experiences, authenticity, and greater consistency between price and perceived value. Consumption by the glass is growing, now chosen by 57% of global consumers according to Coravin, driven primarily by young people seeking variety, moderation, and discovery. This phenomenon is profoundly changing the work of restaurants, wine bars, and wine shops.
Pricing is also becoming a key issue in the restaurant industry. Distributors and HORECA operators are sounding the alarm over excessive wine list price increases. Today’s consumers compare prices, immediately perceive markups as overly aggressive, and tend to reduce out-of-home consumption when the quality-price ratio appears unbalanced. More and more restaurateurs are therefore considering more sustainable models, with lower markups and increased bottle rotation.
Meanwhile, production and marketing preferences are also changing. Liv-Ex data confirms impressive growth in the global fine wine market for white and sparkling wines: 650% for whites and 1,100% for sparkling wines since 2010, while reds remain essentially stagnant. This is an important signal because it reflects a real transformation in consumer tastes and international investor decisions.
Organic retail continues to grow in Italian distribution, with organic retail sales expected to reach €4.4 billion in 2025 (9.2%). However, organic wine has yet to fully capture this positive trend: organic wines and sparkling wines are stable in value (-0.1%) and declining in volume. This demonstrates that today’s consumers seek sustainability, but also demand accessibility, simplicity, and a clear perceived value.
At the same time, the importance of technological innovation is growing. Eatable Adventures’ Wine Tech Challenge highlights how the sector is increasingly investing in precision agriculture, artificial intelligence, water sustainability, distribution monitoring, dealcoholization, and commercial automation. Innovation is no longer an afterthought but a strategic competitive lever for reducing costs, improving sustainability, and adapting to new market scenarios.
Overall, the Italian wine industry is undergoing a momentous transformation. Global consumption is slowing, margins are compressing, and traditional markets are becoming more unstable. But at the same time, new opportunities are emerging related to alternative markets, experiential consumption, premiumization, technological innovation, sparkling wines, white wines, and the evolution of wine tourism.
The future of the sector does not seem to be oriented toward quantitative growth, but rather toward a more selective, managerial, and value-driven model. Those who can quickly adapt to changing consumer behavior, build direct relationships with the market, and offer authentic and sustainable experiences will have significant growth opportunities in the coming years.
This week confirms a complex phase for Italian wine: the sector remains strong, recognized, and central to Made in Italy, but it operates within a more unstable, selective, and less predictable market than in the past.
The overall picture for the Italian agri-food sector remains positive: in 2025, food and beverage exports reached €70.9 billion, up 5%, confirming the strength of the Italian system.
However, wine, while remaining one of the symbolic categories of national exports, has registered a decline: Italian wine exports in 2025 stopped at around 7.78 billion euros , with a drop of around 4% .
The most critical data concerns the United States, a key market for Italian wine, where tariffs and trade uncertainty have clearly weighed. According to the UIV Observatory, Italian exports to the US fell by 9.2% in 2025 , with an even sharper contraction in the first quarter of 2026. This isn’t just an Italian problem: the American supply chain, including importers, distributors, restaurateurs, and wine shops, is also suffering negative impacts, with reduced sales and a reduced presence of European wines on restaurant menus.
On the domestic front, the most sensitive issue remains that of inventory. According to the ICQRF’s “Cantina Italia,” as of April 2026, Italian wineries held 52.5 million hectoliters of wine , 5.6% more than in 2025 , in addition to 4.7 million hectoliters of must . This figure indicates significant production capacity, but also the need to carefully manage the relationship between supply, consumption, exports, and prices. Veneto alone accounts for 25.6% of national inventory, driven primarily by Prosecco.
Worldwide, wine consumption continues to decline. The OIV estimates global consumption of 208 million hectoliters for 2025, down 2.7% from the previous year and 14% from 2018. Consumer habits are changing, especially among young people: greater attention to health, lower alcohol consumption, and a greater search for convenience, sustainability, and affordability.
This is precisely where one of the week’s most important trends comes from: the growth of alternative formats. Cans, bag-in-boxes, pouches, half-liter bottles, mini formats, and ready-to-drinks are becoming strategic tools for capturing new consumption styles. The 0.50-liter format appears increasingly attractive for restaurants, couples, and foreign markets, while the can is growing especially in international markets, thanks to its convenience and perceived sustainability.
At the same time, the No-Lo segment, that is, non-alcoholic or low-alcohol drinks, is gaining ground. Mocktails, non-alcoholic spritzes, zero-alcohol gin and tonics, and alcohol-free ready-to-drinks are gaining ground, especially among young people and in mixology. In Italy, the No-Lo segment has grown by 15% in volume over the last three years , while the traditional alcoholic beverage sector is declining.
However, there are positive signs. The fine wine market is showing signs of recovery, with the Liv-Ex indices supported especially by Italy and Champagne. Some major Italian labels, particularly Barolo, Barbaresco, Masseto, Sassicaia, Solaia, Tignanello, and Soldera, confirm the strength of Italian wine in the premium and investment segment.
International promotion also remains key. Vinitaly has reopened its international calendar with initiatives in Brazil and China, focusing on South America and Asia as high-potential areas. The EU-Mercosur agreement could open new opportunities for Italian wine, especially in Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay, while Asia remains a challenging but strategic market, requiring continued support.
The structural value of Italian wine remains enormous: Italy boasts 523 DOP and IGP wines , Europe’s largest certified wine heritage, with an estimated value of approximately €11 billion for geographical indication wines. This is the true strength of the system: not a single product, but a map of territories, grape varieties, denominations, landscapes, and local identities.
The summary is clear: Italian wine isn’t experiencing a crisis of value, but rather a crisis of adaptation. Consumption is declining, markets are changing, the United States is more unstable, inventories remain high, and consumers are more price-conscious. The answer can’t simply be to lower margins: we need to differentiate formats, markets, channels, and languages.
The future will reward wineries capable of combining quality, commercial flexibility, a narrative of the region, and the ability to understand new consumer trends. Italian wine still has a powerful competitive advantage, but it must use it more strategically: less vested interest, more market vision.
Italian wine is going through a complex phase, marked by declining consumption, pressure on exports, rising costs, and severe market selection.
2025 also put large groups under stress: among the main companies with revenues above 100 million euros, the majority closed the year with declining turnover.
The data confirms that the difficulty no longer concerns only small wineries, but the entire system.
The economic picture shows a market in defensive mode. Exports and domestic sales are slowing, large-scale retail trade is pushing promotions, and consumer wine prices are still declining, at a 2.1% annual rate. This signals a more fragile, selective demand that is less willing to absorb price increases, despite the higher production, logistics, and energy costs borne by businesses.
On the international front, Italian wine is facing renewed tensions. Exports in 2026 got off to a slow start, with a sharp decline in January and a particularly severe decline to the United States. Added to this are the geopolitical challenges related to the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz: according to the UIV (Italian Wine and Spirits Association), orders in approximately twenty markets, with an estimated annual value of around €80 million, have been blocked. The impact also affects transportation, dry raw materials, tourism, and wine tourism.
In this scenario, the sector’s response increasingly relies on managerial skills, expertise, and digitalization. Italian wine companies are challenged to better manage margins, markets, price lists, distribution, and sales data. CRM, business intelligence, cost control, forecasting, and digital tools are no longer ancillary elements, but essential infrastructures to remain competitive.
Premiumization remains a viable option, but with a clear limit: the market rewards quality only if the price remains consistent and accessible. Consumers are drinking less, but are seeking greater value, authenticity, sustainability, and transparency. The way restaurants consume wine is changing: fewer full bottles, more glasses, greater attention to price, a growth in no- and low-alcohol options, and competition from mixology.
Despite the challenges, Italian vineyards remain solid and attractive alternative assets for investors, HNWIs, and family offices. Suitable areas, with reputation, water availability, good exposure, climate resilience, and wine tourism potential, continue to represent a long-term investment. The vineyard is no longer just an agricultural asset, but a business platform that integrates production, brand, territory, hospitality, and direct sales.
Wine tourism remains one of the most important levers for the future. With millions of visitors and billions in value generated, hospitality at the winery has become an integral part of the business model. The most advanced companies sell not just wine, but experiences, identity, culture, and a connection with the local area.
At the public level, the new CMO Wine 2026-2027 call for proposals, with over €98 million earmarked for international promotion, represents a strategic tool to support exports and foster market diversification. In a time of significant uncertainty, anticipating planning and strengthening presence in third countries is crucial.
Finally, the topic of responsible consumption enters the debate forcefully. Data on binge drinking, drinking outside of mealtimes, and abuse among young people show that the problem isn’t wine itself, but how it’s consumed. The industry must move beyond defensive positions and contribute to a culture of conscious consumption, clearly distinguishing between use and abuse.