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Wine Report of October 19, 2025

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on the main news in the world of wine and wineries, with a strategic eye for those working in the sector.

Recent Key Points

  • Italian wine exports in the first months of 2025 reached approximately €2.8 billion (1.5% in value) and 703 million litres (2.1%) in the first six months.
  • As of September 30, 2025, there were approximately 36 million hectoliters of wine in stock in Italian wineries: a 9.6% decrease compared to July but a 1.3% decrease compared to September 2024.
  • The 2025 Italian harvest is estimated at 47.4 million hectolitres (8% compared to 2024), with generally good-excellent quality but with signs of overproduction and pressure on prices.
  • In Tuscany, a voluntary reduction in yields is expected for 2025, from approximately 2.7 to 2.4 million hl, in order to safeguard quality, reputation and average price.
  • Italian exports to the United States and other non-EU markets are showing signs of weakness: in July 2025, a decline of -0.9% in value and -3.4% in volume compared to 2024.
  • Technological innovation is gaining ground: a recent study highlights the application of artificial intelligence in viticulture, production, and wine tourism as a lever for efficiency and strategic differentiation.
  • In the M&A segment, for example, an anonymous Chinese investor acquired the Calmére Estate Winery (Napa USA) for $16.8 million in cash , with plans to expand into Asia.

M&A Radar

Deal / RumorParties involvedSize (if known)GeographySource & date
Purchase Calmére Estate (Napa, USA)Anonymous Chinese investor / Peju familyapproximately US$ 16.8 MUSA – Napa Valley
Acquisition of the Valle Talloria production unit by Caffo Group 1915Caffo Group acquires Italian Wine Brands’ Piedmont operationsnot fully detailedItaly –

Prices & Harvest: mini-box

  • DOC grapes in Veneto/Vicenza: provisional prices between €40-€60/quintal (with premiums for organic) for the 2025 harvest.
  • Wholesale grape prices in Italy: suggested range 2025 between US$1.19-5.46/kg (approx. €1.10-€5/kg) depending on variety/territory.
  • 2025 harvest conditions: good grape health, estimated good-excellent quality, but in some areas of the South (Puglia, Sicily) concerns about water stress.
  • Cellar stock: 36 Mhl as of September 30, 2025 (Italy) representing a significant existing base before the new harvest.
  • Trend: with the harvest increasing (8%) and stocks already high, strong pressure is expected on the prices of both grapes and bulk wine if not accompanied by action to contain yields or diversify markets.

Wine Report of October 18, 2025

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on the main news in the world of wine and wineries, with a strategic eye for those working in the sector.

Recent Key Points

  • Italian wine exports in the first months of 2025 reached approximately €2.8 billion (with an estimated harvest of 47.4 million hectoliters, 8% compared to 2024)
  • However, updated Istat data show a slight drop in Italian exports in July: -0.9% in value and -3.4% in volume compared to 2024, signalling tensions (also linked to US tariffs)
  • In Tuscany, a voluntary reduction in yields is expected for 2025: from 2.7 to 2.4 million hl, with the aim of protecting quality, reputation and prices.
  • Italian vineyards report a slight delay in the harvest (5-7 days compared to 2024) but good general conditions of the fruit, promising quality and the absence of widespread emergencies
  • Sustainability innovation: Recent studies highlight the growing role of AI applied to viticulture, production, and wine tourism as a driver of efficiency, forecasting, resource savings, and experience personalization.
  • On the M&A front, the recent cash purchase of the Calmére winery (Napa, USA) for $16.8 million by an anonymous Chinese investor, with plans to expand and build brands aimed at Asian markets.
  • In Italy, Cantina Pasqua (Verona) announces investments to strengthen corporate vision, innovation and structural renewal on the occasion of its centenary

M&A Radar

Deal / RumorParties involvedSize (public note)GeographySource / date
Purchase Calmére Estate (Napa)Anonymous Chinese investor / Peju family~ 16.8 M USDUSA – Napa Valley
Pasqua Wines InvestmentsPasqua Wines (Italian company)not publicly statedItaly (Veron

Prices & Harvest (mini box)

  • Estimated national harvest: 47.4 million hl for 2025, up from last year.
  • In Tuscany: estimated production reduced to 2.4 million hl from 2.7 million in 2024, as a preventive measure to maintain quality/price balance.
  • Harvest trend: slightly later harvest (5-7 days) compared to 2024 but with “healthy” grapes and good general conditions
  • Stocks: as of July 31, 2025, there are approximately 39.8 million hl in registered stock, which will be added to the 2025 production
  • Bulk grape/wine prices: no reliable updated national values (or broken down by variety/region) emerge from recent sources — the focus today is predominantly on quality and positioning dynamics.
  • Weather/Yield observation: No phytosanitary emergencies have been detected nationwide; some areas have been monitored for water stress and phenological delays, but so far without significant structural losses.

Wine Report of October 17, 2025

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on the main news in the world of wine and wineries, with a strategic eye for those working in the sector.

Recent Updates (Italy & Global)

  • In Italy, sales in large-scale retail channels at the end of August 2025 recorded an increase of 0.6% in value, but a decrease of -1.8% in volume (in the bottled wine segment) compared to a year earlier.
  • In the first half of 2025, Italian wine exports rose by 1.5% in value, reaching approximately 2.8 billion euros, and 2.1% in volume (703.5 million litres).
  • The Ministry of Agriculture has allocated approximately €27 million (plus co-financing) for promotion of the 2025/26 CMO wine market on non-EU markets, with an expected impact exceeding €63 million in total.
  • Globally, wine production in 2025 is expected to decline in many regions, so much so that production levels are being discussed as “lower than normal” on a fifty-year basis.
  • In Tuscany, for 2025 the Consortia (e.g. Chianti) have already planned a voluntary reduction in yields of 10-15% to preserve qualitative and market balance, estimating production of around 2.4 million hl compared to 2.7 in 2024.
  • In Veneto, opposite signs are being reported: forecasts call for an increase in production, with approximately 100,000 tons more grapes than in 2024, thanks to favorable weather conditions and limited phytosanitary damage.
  • The innovation sector is seeing a boost in AI and digitalization: a recent study explores the application of artificial intelligence in viticulture, production, and wine tourism to optimize resources, prediction, selection, and sustainability.

M&A Radar

Deal / RumorParties involvedNote sizeGeographySource / date
The Wine Group Acquires Brands and Plants from Constellation BrandsThe Wine Group / Constellation Brands≈ 900 M USDUSA / California
Campari sells Cinzano and Frattina (though not pure wine)Campari / Caffo Group 1915~ €100 millionItaly
Accolade Wines Merger/Combination with Pernod Ricard Winemakers → “Vinarchy”Accolade Wines / Pernod Ricard Winemakersdo not communicate in detailGlobal

Prices & Harvest (mini box)

  • Generic black grapes (undifferentiated), wholesale price in Italy: ~ €4.00/kg (recent data, stable compared to previous weeks)
  • The bulk wine and grape market shows slow trading, high inventories, and prices under pressure in many areas (Ciatti report)
  • Italian production in 2025 estimated at 47.4 million hl, 8% compared to 2024, with risk of excess supply in some areas
  • Climate conditions: heat wave in summer, drought in regions such as Puglia and Sicily, but spring rainfall has mitigated the water deficit in many central and southern areas.

Wine Trends in Italy — Week 13–17 October 2025

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Executive summary.

The first half of 2025 closed with a slowdown in world wine trade (-2.3% in value, 16.7 billion ¤, -3.7% in volume, 4.6 billion L; average price 3.57 ¤/L).

The slowdown is across all categories, with sparkling wines almost stable and bottled wines leading the decline. The US remains the primary import market, but 15% tariffs and a weak dollar are squeezing Italian producers’ margins, which in many cases are absorbing the tariffs through price reductions. In Italy, inventories remain high (36 million hl as of September 30) and domestic demand is polarized: large-scale retail trade is slightly growing in value but declining in volume; out-of-home consumption is “less but better.” UIV is supporting a financial promotion booster . On the financial front, banking and supply chain transactions confirm the credit focus on the sector.

Key numbers of the week

  • World trade 1H 2025: value -2.3% (€16.7 billion) | volume -3.7% (€4.6 billion) | average price €0.06/L to €3.57/L.
  • Categories:
    • Bottled: €11.3 billion (-3.1%) , 2.3 billion L (-4.8%).
    • Sparkling wines: €3.72 billion (-0.3%) , 479 million L (-0.4%).
    • Bulk: €1.2 billion (-0.4%) , L1.6 billion (-2.4%).
    • Bag-in-box: €345 million (-1%) , L175 million (-5.3%).
  • Top importers by value (1H 2025): USA €3.2 billion (6.5%) ; UK €1.98 billion (-5.4%) ; Germany ~ €1.3 billion (6.9%) ; followed by Canada, Japan (4.3%, driven by sparkling wines 14.6%), the Netherlands, China, Switzerland (5.8%), Belgium (3.4%), Sweden (above France).
  • Top importers by volume: Germany 647.9 million L (-1.1%) ; USA 645.4 million L (1.9%) ; UK 551.9 million L (-6.4%) ; Italy 129.2 million L (-28.5%) in imports.
  • USA in 2025: 30.8% in January, 20.2% in February, 14.7% in March; then -1.5% in April, -16.8% in May, -3.1% in June in value (but 3.8% in volume).
  • Russia: sharp drops in bottled wines (-37.1% in volume) and sparkling wines (-25.7% in value 1H 2025).
  • Italy – stocks: 36 million hl of wine as of 09/30/2025 (-9.6% vs July; 1.3% vs September 2024) 8.5 million hl of must 4.6 million hl VNAIF.
  • Italy – Large-scale retail trade (August 2025): €3.1 billion (0.6% value; -1.8% volume). Sparkling wines in large-scale retail trade: €784 million (1% value; 2.2% volume). Still DOP wines: -3.4% volume (stable value) ; IGP wines: -1.7% volume, 1.2% value.
  • Out of home: 9 out of 10 Italians have frequented bars in the last three months; by 2026, 19% will reduce their outings, but 66% are aiming for higher-value experiences . No/low-alcohol niches are growing.
  • US tariffs: estimated cost of €61 million for Italy in the first few months; average price of Italian wine in the US in July 2025: -13.5% , tariff absorption strategy (not sustainable for everyone).
  • 2025 harvest: a qualitatively excellent and abundant vintage (~ 47.4 million hl , 8% vs. 2024; alternative estimates 44–45 million hl). Previous inventories of ~37 million hl to be disposed of.
  • Finance & Supply Chain:
    • Piccini 1882: €36 million financing (Intesa, MPS, CDP) for international expansion and AI.
    • Terre Cevico–UniCredit: supply chain agreement for investments, exports, and ESG transition.

Strategic Reading (Italy)

  1. Margin compression on US exports
    Absorbing the tariff supports volumes but pushes towards down-pricing and the risk of de-premiumization if not accompanied by more selective storytelling and trade-marketing.
  2. Polarized domestic demand
    In large-scale retail, “value up, volume down”; in the out-of-home retail sector, selective premiumization . It’s appropriate to push premium formats/labels and experiences (wine tourism, wine pairing, by the glass).
  3. High stocks, abundant harvest
    Necessary disposal plan : portfolio management (blends, opportunity channels, technical distillation), focus on sparkling wines (more resilient segment) and non-US exports (Brazil, Mexico, selective Asia).
  4. Institutional promotion
    The booster promoted by UIV and the Government must be translated into coordinated campaigns in the USA and promising markets, with clear KPIs (ROS trade, rotation speed, weighted distribution).

Recommended actions for Italian wineries (Q4 2025 → H1 2026)

  • Protect the mix in the US: segment by country/retailer, favor channels with greater quality-price elasticity; review net price lists and promotions, avoiding linear discounts.
  • Promote sparkling wines and premium experiential wines in large-scale retail and hospitality sectors: party bundles, special formats, and limited editions.
  • Market diversification : focus on Brazil/Mexico ; ride sparkling wine trends in Japan ; and cautious tactics (slow rotations) in the UK .
  • Inventories : Technical distillation plans and selective private labels to free up space without eroding brands.
  • Domestic communication : support domestic demand with educational campaigns (moderation, quality, territory) and in-cellar experiences .
  • Finance : Evaluate working capital instruments and credit insurance ; leverage banking partnerships for exports and ESG.