2026 opens as a year of readjustment rather than growth: stagnant consumption, pressure on inventories.
agricultural volatility and a competition that is not won by “making more wine,” but by making more legible, more coherent, and more defensible wine in terms of price and reputation.
1) Global scenario: unstable production, stagnant consumption, selective market
After a phase marked by climate shocks and no longer expansive demand, the sector is entering a new “normality”:
- 2024 world harvest : the lowest since 1961 (225.8 million hl worldwide).
- 2025 : slight recovery, but without a return to historical averages.
- Extreme weather becomes the new constant , with a structural effect: relative scarcity and production fluctuations as the hallmark of the next two years.
- Consumption : IWRS data indicates zero growth in alcoholic beverages (volume and value) for 2026. Wine is part of this trend: the “tide” is no longer rising, so it’s not dragging everyone along.
Direct consequence: market share is not gained through industry inertia, but through commercial precision and a “clear” proposal to the consumer.
2) Italy: solid production base, but market fragility and margins to be protected
Italy remains strong in fundamentals, but growth is not automatic.
- 2025 harvest Italy : ~ 47.4 million hl , with good quality level.
- Exports: Italy maintains the world record in volume and one of the highest values (over 8 billion euros ), but with a less “easy” dynamic:
- USA (first outlet) slowing down.
- Germany and Canada are more regular in supporting flows.
Key message: in 2026, the priority is to defend margins and positioning , not to chase volumes at any price.
3) Bubbles: the engine that continues to push, but with a clear polarization
In the calm sea of global stagnation, bubbles remain the most dynamic segment, but the rules of the game are changing.
- Prosecco DOC (2024) : 660 million bottles , estimated value 3.6 billion euros .
- The category is polarized :
- Promotional offer (price pressure, commodity risk).
- Identity cuvées : parcels, maturation times, more precise agronomy, recognizable styles.
The most promising direction is the second: specificity and recognisability, i.e. sustainable value.
In parallel:
- Franciacorta and Trentodoc consolidate their reputation thanks to a key driver: the demand for authenticity, transparency, and process (not just “brand”).
4) Contemporary whites and technical rosé: Italy has a natural competitive advantage
Outside the world of sparkling wine, two areas emerge where Italy “speaks the language” of the 2026 consumer:
“Contemporary” whites
Clear, saline, agile wines, with moderate alcohol content and fine textures: perfect for a more balanced and gastronomic drinking culture.
Examples cited: Verdicchio, Pinot Bianco, Fiano, Falanghina , Alto Adige and Friulian blends.
New generation Rosé
No longer “seasonal”, but gastronomic and long-lived , with an increasingly precise technical profile.
Examples: Chiaretto, Cerasuolo d’Abruzzo, Sicilian rosés .
In short: the winner is the one who produces usable , modern, coherent and easily described wines (even in international contexts).
5) Agricultural side: falling grape prices, high stocks, risk of discrepancies between denominations
Here the situation becomes more difficult and more strategic.
- In 2025, grape prices are expected to plummet in many areas (up to 40% in some areas), with a knock-on effect on agricultural income and the perception of value.
- A gap opens up:
- Names capable of controlling the offer and valorising it (communication policies).
- Areas most exposed to volatility and “volume alone”.
The lesson is brutal but true: volume without narration generates no value .
Stocks: the issue that weighs on everything
“Cantina Italia / ICQRF” data updated as of 12/31/2025 :
- 59.5 million hl of wine in stock
- 7.7 million hl of must
- 2.8 million hl of new wine in fermentation
In one year: wine 4.4% , must 16.8% , fermenting wine 32.3% .
The picture depicts a system that must dispose of and realign production and demand. Prosecco appears less worrisome in terms of sales potential; the situation is more critical for several “firm” denominations, where sales are not immediate.
6) Communication and “consumer culture”: the counter-offensive as a market lever
In this context, an industrial as well as cultural theme takes shape: how do we talk about wine in the health/sober era?
Sandro Veronesi (Oniverse/Signorvino/Oniwines) proposes a clear line:
- wine is in a normal phase (supply > demand) and “now it needs to be sold”;
- What is needed is joint work and communication that distinguishes moderate and convivial consumption, with scientific and cultural foundations, avoiding indiscriminate demonization.
This is a key point: in 2026, simply making a product well isn’t enough; we also need to legitimize its role (food, conviviality, Mediterranean style) in a credible and responsible way.
7) No/Low alcohol: from curiosity to laboratory (and opportunity)
No/low-alcohol is no longer a “trendy corner”: it is a laboratory where experiments are carried out to intercept new behaviors.
- Forecast: Average annual growth 7–9% until 2026 .
- Most favorable soil: aromatic and sparkling wines.
- Real challenge: maintaining sensory integrity and texture, protecting the qualitative perception.
For many wineries it could become a parallel (not replacement) line to cover consumption opportunities that are currently “lost”.
8) Policies and finance: CMO Wine Investments 2026–2027 (AGEA)
On an operational level, this provides a concrete benchmark for those who want to invest in competitiveness and structure.
- AGEA publishes instructions for the CMO Wine – Investment Intervention 2026/2027 .
- Funds guaranteed until the 2027 financial year; for the 2026/2027 campaign, projects can only be annual .
- Objective: improve overall performance (facilities, infrastructure, marketing, energy efficiency, sustainability).
- Grants: up to 40% for micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises; lower percentages for medium-sized and large enterprises.
- Application deadline : March 30, 2026 .
This is an important signal: in 2026, “defensible” investments are those that improve efficiency, sustainability, and commercial capacity, not those that simply increase volumes.
9) Abroad: USA, fine wines and Champagne show stress (and indicate a change of era)
United States (2025)
- Value: -1.6% ($74.3 billion vs $75.5 billion)
- Volume: -2% (329 million cases vs 335.9 million)
Trend: Strengthening direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales as a driver of loyalty, not just a channel.
Fine wines as an investment
The Liv-ex Fine Wine 100 Index (referred to as the “Dow Jones” of fine wines) has lost approximately 11% in two years ; declines have been widespread, even across top regions. This signals a decline in wine’s status as an asset, with a return to more rational thinking.
Champagne
After the record 2022 (326 million bottles), in 2025 it will drop to 266 million (-2% on 2024): -60 million bottles in three years.
The tariffs/USA issue remains an unknown, with threats of very heavy tariffs.
