Here’s the updated daily briefing on the wine/winery sector, with recent data and strategic insights.

Recent Updates (5 – 7 points)

• The 2025 harvest in Italy is estimated at around 47.4 million hectolitres , with healthy grapes and a “very good / excellent” vintage in the main wine-growing areas.
• The wine cooperatives report qualitative balance : regular ripening, stable technical parameters and positive prospects despite climatic challenges that vary by region.
• In Puglia, production is expected to increase by ~17% compared to 2024 thanks to favorable weather, but grape prices remain under pressure, with calls for extraordinary measures to support farmers.
• Wine stocks in Italian cellars are high: approximately 36 million hectolitres as of July 31, 2025, and at the same time domestic consumption shows an estimated decline of 2%.
• On the Italian export front, the first half of 2025 shows a 1.5% increase in value, but a contraction in volumes (-3%) compared to the previous year.
• Exports to the United States are showing signs of weakness: in April 2025, Italian wine in the US recorded a decline of 7.5% in volume and 9.2% in value, following the introduction of tariffs.
• Among the notable M&A transactions: The Wine Group completed the acquisition of brands and facilities from Constellation Brands—including Meiomi, Woodbridge, SIMI—strengthening its premium and infrastructure portfolio.

M&A Radar

Prices & Harvest (mini box)

• Grape / bulk wine prices (when available) Currently, there are no updated official prices for all the main Italian DOCs, but there is evidence of strong downward pressure on common wines and “cash” grapes due to the high supply.
• Trend compared to the previous year / weeks • In Puglia: 17% of grape production compared to 2024, but static or falling prices. • Inventories (36 Mhl) increase the risk of market saturation and price compression.
• Yields, climate, and local characteristics • Harvest began early almost everywhere in Italy thanks to favorable weather, with peaks of 10-20% less than average weather expectations in some areas of central and northern Italy. • Cooperatives report balanced ripening and good technical parameters in areas ranging from Sicily to Veneto.

Here’s the updated daily briefing on the wine/winery sector, with recent data and strategic insights.

Recent Trends (5-7 points)

• In the first half of 2025, Italian wine exports showed stability: 1.5% in value (€2.8 billion) and 2.1% in volume (703.5 million litres), exceeding the global average (1.4% in value).
• However, the United States, a key market, is recording a decline: in the period January-July 2025, Italian exports to the US market fell by -1.1% in value, with a compression of the average price per litre of -6.8%.
• The 15% US customs tariffs (effective from August 2025) particularly affect “mainstream” wines imported from the EU, pushing consortia (e.g. Chianti) to explore alternative markets such as China, Brazil, Southeast Asia.
• The 2025 harvest in Italy is estimated at 47.4 million hectoliters, an 8% increase compared to 2024, allowing Italy to return to the top of world production.
• Some areas choose quantitative moderation: in Tuscany 2.4 Mhl is expected in 2025 (from 2.7 Mhl in 2024) to preserve quality and reputation.
• The bulk wine market appears to be struggling: brokers report slow demand, high supplies, and price pressure.
• Digital innovation and artificial intelligence are gaining increasing attention: a recent study highlights AI applications for viticulture, production, and wine tourism as levers of sustainability and efficiency.

M&A Radar

Insight analysis notes: The wine M&A market in 2025 appears to be characterized by a generalized “pause” in large deals, with transaction volumes at historically low levels. The most significant transactions tend to be strategic acquisitions of brands or plants by large, established groups.

Prices & Harvest (mini box)

Grape prices / territorial references

• In Pavia, in the Condifesa Pavia 2025 document: Barbera DOP quoted on average at €48/q.le, minimum €40, maximum €55.
• In Veneto / Vicenza: provisional prices for DOC grapes for various varieties range from ~40 to ~60 €/q.le, with BIO more premium.
• General trend: the Chambers of Commerce report that, compared to 2023-2024, the prices of DOC and DOCG grapes are decreasing in many areas.
• Current bulk wine / wine “suitable for serving” (year 2025) offers on platforms: e.g. Bolgheri Vermentino €320/hl, Tuscany red wine €200/hl, Maremma Toscana organic red wine €155/hl.

Harvest / yields / climate notes

• The 2025 harvest in Italy is estimated at 47.4 Mhl, up from 2024, and projected to surpass France and Spain in global production.
• In Alto Adige and the areas adjacent to the Adige Valley, an early harvest is expected (late August/early September), with good vegetative balance, sparse bunches (less compaction) and excellent health.
• In Veneto, however, a quantitative increase is expected: “100,000 more tons of grapes” reported for the 2025 harvest.
• In Tuscany, some consortia have chosen to voluntarily reduce production for quality reasons, rather than aiming to maximize volumes.

with the most relevant elements useful as a basis for a strategic post in the wine sector:

1. Champagne: Improving quality, but reduced harvest Champagne producers report a 2025 harvest that is 10% smaller than average, but with improved grapes that fuel hopes of a revival in international demand.
2. Chile shifts exports to Brazil due to US tariffs. Chilean wine exports to the United States decreased by 13% (in value) in the first seven months of 2025, due to the introduction of a 10% tariff. At the same time, sales to Brazil increased by 10%, making it the main market for Chilean wine.
3. Young people (Gen Z) are rewriting wine consumption. Generation Z is showing growing interest in low-alcohol, natural, sustainable wines, and innovative formats (such as cans and spritzes). The “barrier-free” approach in wine culture is trumping the traditional idea of exclusivity.
4. Wine and Climate Change: The Structural Challenge A recent article highlights how many historic regions (e.g., Spain) are already precariously exposed to climate stress and how the industry is responding with sustainable practices, resilient grape varieties, altitudinal shifts, circular design, and carbon capture.
5. Global vineyard values are declining. Due to the decline in global consumption, vineyard values have fallen significantly (up to 30–33%). Areas like Marlborough (NZ) are experiencing the greatest losses, while premium regions like Champagne and some areas of England are better able to withstand the pressure.

Trends and scenarios to keep an eye on

• AI, Big Data, and Sustainable Wine: A recent study (ArXiv) explores the adoption of Artificial Intelligence for viticulture management, wine production, and food and wine tourism, with impacts on water efficiency, predictive vineyard monitoring, and personalized customer experience. In parallel, another study shows how spectral analysis combined with machine learning models can profile wine origins with over 91% accuracy.
• Vinitaly.USA / wine2wine in Chicago (5–6 October 2025) The second edition of the forum is held at Chicago’s Navy Pier: 250 Italian exhibiting companies, focus on strategies for the American market, duties, promotion and B2B networking.
• Structural Weakness in the US Market and DTC Channels. The “State of the US Wine Industry 2025” report notes that consumption growth has stalled, with a combination of demographic factors (the decline of the Boomer generation) and social sensitivity to alcohol negatively impacting it. At the same time, direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales are showing signs of contraction, and US exports in value have fallen by 18% in some quarters.
• Emerging trends: low- and no-alcohol wines and new markets. The low- and no-alcohol wine segment is expected to grow strongly (over 20% by 2029), and format innovation (ready-to-drink, alcohol-free sparkling wines) is gaining ground. Furthermore, new geographic markets (Asia, Latin America, Northern Europe) are perceived as key opportunities for export diversification, especially in the context of rising tariffs.
• Alcohol Price Regulations: MUP vs. Volumetric Taxation A recent study models the impact of policies such as the minimum price per alcoholic unit (MUP) in France, finding that such policies would favor small and medium-sized wineries (39% profits), penalizing large producers without altering state revenues.