The transition from late 2025 to early 2026 captures a sector that isn’t experiencing a “seasonal crisis,” but rather a paradigm shift: structurally lower consumption, price pressure, shrinking large-scale retail trade, more selective exports, and a single category that continues to clearly act as a driving force: sparkling wines, especially Prosecco.
Within this framework, the real issue is not “how much wine we produce,” but what value we manage to defend and build along the supply chain (brand, positioning, channels, real sustainability, territory).
1) 2025: “Prosecco, Prosecco and Prosecco”
In 2025, Prosecco (Docg Conegliano Valdobbiadene, Asolo and Doc) performed better than many other Italian types, even quality ones, intercepting two market forces that now count more than anything else:
- drinkability (more “easy”, fresh, immediate profiles);
- lower alcohol content and a perception of lightness, in line with health trends and new consumption styles.
Prosecco still has room for international growth, but maintaining its competitive advantage isn’t automatic: it requires a quantum leap in territorial and consortium governance. The critical issue cited is very real: the management of vineyards in the Conegliano Valdobbiadene area , where sustainability (agronomic, landscape, social) becomes a reputational and production risk factor. In other words: it’s not enough to sell well today; we must prevent the territory from becoming a bottleneck tomorrow (including on the UNESCO front).
2) Europe: the “defensive” response (uprooting) does not solve the market
The European context weighs heavily: since 2000, wine consumption in Europe has fallen by 35% , and by 2025, global consumption is estimated to reach 214 million hectoliters (an all-time low, according to the text). France, Spain, and Italy still produce approximately 60% of the world’s wine , but this primacy is no longer synonymous with strength: it becomes a problem if demand can no longer keep up with volumes.
The EU plan described focuses primarily on permanent eradication (structural reduction of supply). The critical point highlighted is twofold:
- quantitatively it is often insufficient compared to the surpluses;
- on an industrial level it is a technical measure , not a strategy.
The position reported by UIV (Lamberto Frescobaldi) is clear: uprooting won’t solve Italy’s problems and can create social and territorial risks , especially in the hilly areas best suited to this (landscape management, prevention of landslides). The proposed alternative is an ” accordion-style Italian vineyard ,” that is, more flexible, with tools capable of managing surpluses and poor vintages without destroying productive capital and territorial value. The underlying message: resources are needed for innovation and promotion , not to incentivize exit from the business.
3) Sparkling wines: record and centrality of the USA (but Italy is also changing)
The most impressive data of the week concerns Italian sparkling wines: the one billion bottle mark (1.03 billion) has been surpassed, with 2025 production set to increase by 1.8% over an already record 2024. Approximately 7 out of 10 bottles will go abroad, confirming that bubbles remain the most defensible asset for Italian wine on the market.
The United States emerges as a key point: in wine demand, Italian sparkling wines are becoming even more significant than white wines in the composition of “Italian wine consumed” (in the text: 37% sparkling wines , 36% white wines , 17% red wines ). This is a strategic indicator: sparkling wine is no longer just a “celebration wine,” but is entering everyday life and a premium positioning, competing not just on price but also on identity.
The domestic shift is interesting: in 2025, growth will also be driven by domestic demand (5% in the text), with over 106 million bottles uncorked during the holidays and a decline in imports of foreign sparkling wines (-8%). Therefore, bubbles are strong abroad, but also well-established in Italy , with a growing preference for Made in Italy.
Within this framework, Prosecco (in particular Conegliano Valdobbiadene) closes with double-digit growth ( 10% in the text), while the main classic method wines (Franciacorta, Trentodoc) grow steadily and the niche denominations consolidate their presence (Oltrepò Pavese, Alta Langa).
4) Large-scale retail trade: fifth consecutive year of decline, value stable only thanks to price
Large-scale Italian distribution remains the barometer of “mass” demand, and the diagnosis is clear: volumes down, values almost stable . In the first 11 months of 2025:
- just over 552 million litres sold (–3%);
- value 2.05 billion (–0.4%);
- average price €3.72/litre (2.7%).
The 0.75-liter bottle holds up better: volume -1.8% but value 0.4% (average price €5.4/liter). The strategic interpretation reported is important: it should not be interpreted as resignation, but rather as an acknowledgement that consumption is settling at lower levels . The causes: demographics (an older Italy), cautious spending, a health-conscious attitude, and competition from alternatives in the glass and at times of consumption. The logical consequence: to compete, you need to work on the value chain (positioning, brand, channel mix, differentiation), not hope for a return to the volumes of the past.
5) Exports and markets: mixed signals, pressure on the average price
The Nomisma Wine Monitor reports a mixed picture for the first nine months of 2025: some markets are growing in value, others are declining. For Italy, the crucial data is not just where growth is occurring, but how :
- Canada and Brazil are the ones with growth in both value and volume (therefore “healthy” expansion).
- Germany is recovering in value (with a slight decline in volume), a sign of recovery after difficult years.
- USA : Total bottled wine imports decline in value but remain stable in volume; for Italy, the decline is more marked in value but growth in volume, a typical indicator of a lower average price (competitive pressure and, in the text, the effect of tariffs).
Operational translation: exports remain crucial, but increasingly, success (or survival) is achieved with intelligent product mixes and pricing , and with meticulous attention to channels and distributors. It’s not enough to simply “be there”: you have to protect value .
6) 2026: keywords and direction (Italian Wine Consortium)
The key words proposed by the leaders of several large companies sum up the current climate well: enthusiasm, beauty, experimentation, stability, resilience . In market terms, they mean something very concrete: continuing to invest even in a challenging period, but shifting the focus to innovation, identity, perceived quality, communication, and industrial solidity.