Here’s the updated daily briefing on the wine/winery sector, with recent data and strategic insights.

Recent Trends (5-7 points)

• In the first half of 2025, Italian wine exports showed stability: 1.5% in value (€2.8 billion) and 2.1% in volume (703.5 million litres), exceeding the global average (1.4% in value).
• However, the United States, a key market, is recording a decline: in the period January-July 2025, Italian exports to the US market fell by -1.1% in value, with a compression of the average price per litre of -6.8%.
• The 15% US customs tariffs (effective from August 2025) particularly affect “mainstream” wines imported from the EU, pushing consortia (e.g. Chianti) to explore alternative markets such as China, Brazil, Southeast Asia.
• The 2025 harvest in Italy is estimated at 47.4 million hectoliters, an 8% increase compared to 2024, allowing Italy to return to the top of world production.
• Some areas choose quantitative moderation: in Tuscany 2.4 Mhl is expected in 2025 (from 2.7 Mhl in 2024) to preserve quality and reputation.
• The bulk wine market appears to be struggling: brokers report slow demand, high supplies, and price pressure.
• Digital innovation and artificial intelligence are gaining increasing attention: a recent study highlights AI applications for viticulture, production, and wine tourism as levers of sustainability and efficiency.

M&A Radar

Insight analysis notes: The wine M&A market in 2025 appears to be characterized by a generalized “pause” in large deals, with transaction volumes at historically low levels. The most significant transactions tend to be strategic acquisitions of brands or plants by large, established groups.

Prices & Harvest (mini box)

Grape prices / territorial references

• In Pavia, in the Condifesa Pavia 2025 document: Barbera DOP quoted on average at €48/q.le, minimum €40, maximum €55.
• In Veneto / Vicenza: provisional prices for DOC grapes for various varieties range from ~40 to ~60 €/q.le, with BIO more premium.
• General trend: the Chambers of Commerce report that, compared to 2023-2024, the prices of DOC and DOCG grapes are decreasing in many areas.
• Current bulk wine / wine “suitable for serving” (year 2025) offers on platforms: e.g. Bolgheri Vermentino €320/hl, Tuscany red wine €200/hl, Maremma Toscana organic red wine €155/hl.

Harvest / yields / climate notes

• The 2025 harvest in Italy is estimated at 47.4 Mhl, up from 2024, and projected to surpass France and Spain in global production.
• In Alto Adige and the areas adjacent to the Adige Valley, an early harvest is expected (late August/early September), with good vegetative balance, sparse bunches (less compaction) and excellent health.
• In Veneto, however, a quantitative increase is expected: “100,000 more tons of grapes” reported for the 2025 harvest.
• In Tuscany, some consortia have chosen to voluntarily reduce production for quality reasons, rather than aiming to maximize volumes.

with the most relevant elements useful as a basis for a strategic post in the wine sector:

1. Champagne: Improving quality, but reduced harvest Champagne producers report a 2025 harvest that is 10% smaller than average, but with improved grapes that fuel hopes of a revival in international demand.
2. Chile shifts exports to Brazil due to US tariffs. Chilean wine exports to the United States decreased by 13% (in value) in the first seven months of 2025, due to the introduction of a 10% tariff. At the same time, sales to Brazil increased by 10%, making it the main market for Chilean wine.
3. Young people (Gen Z) are rewriting wine consumption. Generation Z is showing growing interest in low-alcohol, natural, sustainable wines, and innovative formats (such as cans and spritzes). The “barrier-free” approach in wine culture is trumping the traditional idea of exclusivity.
4. Wine and Climate Change: The Structural Challenge A recent article highlights how many historic regions (e.g., Spain) are already precariously exposed to climate stress and how the industry is responding with sustainable practices, resilient grape varieties, altitudinal shifts, circular design, and carbon capture.
5. Global vineyard values are declining. Due to the decline in global consumption, vineyard values have fallen significantly (up to 30–33%). Areas like Marlborough (NZ) are experiencing the greatest losses, while premium regions like Champagne and some areas of England are better able to withstand the pressure.

Trends and scenarios to keep an eye on

• AI, Big Data, and Sustainable Wine: A recent study (ArXiv) explores the adoption of Artificial Intelligence for viticulture management, wine production, and food and wine tourism, with impacts on water efficiency, predictive vineyard monitoring, and personalized customer experience. In parallel, another study shows how spectral analysis combined with machine learning models can profile wine origins with over 91% accuracy.
• Vinitaly.USA / wine2wine in Chicago (5–6 October 2025) The second edition of the forum is held at Chicago’s Navy Pier: 250 Italian exhibiting companies, focus on strategies for the American market, duties, promotion and B2B networking.
• Structural Weakness in the US Market and DTC Channels. The “State of the US Wine Industry 2025” report notes that consumption growth has stalled, with a combination of demographic factors (the decline of the Boomer generation) and social sensitivity to alcohol negatively impacting it. At the same time, direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales are showing signs of contraction, and US exports in value have fallen by 18% in some quarters.
• Emerging trends: low- and no-alcohol wines and new markets. The low- and no-alcohol wine segment is expected to grow strongly (over 20% by 2029), and format innovation (ready-to-drink, alcohol-free sparkling wines) is gaining ground. Furthermore, new geographic markets (Asia, Latin America, Northern Europe) are perceived as key opportunities for export diversification, especially in the context of rising tariffs.
• Alcohol Price Regulations: MUP vs. Volumetric Taxation A recent study models the impact of policies such as the minimum price per alcoholic unit (MUP) in France, finding that such policies would favor small and medium-sized wineries (39% profits), penalizing large producers without altering state revenues.

Recent news of note, Latest from the world of wine.

Champagne: quality on the rise, hopes for demand

Champagne producers are banking on improved grape quality in 2025, after a difficult season. Despite a 10% decline in the harvest, they are optimistic about the potential leverage effect on demand.

· Chile towards Brazil: paradigm shift in wine exports The new tariffs on Chilean wines destined for the United States have pushed wine exports towards Brazil, which has become the main market, with growth close to 10%.

· Rapid expansion of the English wine industry . Warmer forecasts and earlier ripening have spurred a surge in English vineyard acreage. Production for 2025 has already shown signs of strong dynamism, with more room for still wines in addition to sparkling wines.

· Wine and Climate Change: The Story of Adaptation A recent article explores how traditional regions are already feeling the effects of climate change (extreme temperatures, weather events) and how producers and researchers are responding with more resilient techniques.

Sonoma’s Strategy to Attract Young Consumers In California, some wineries are proposing a 1% tax on tastings and sales to fund marketing initiatives aimed at engaging younger generations. The idea has sparked debate.

In Napa, Heitz Cellar changes its grape sourcing strategy . After 60 years of exclusive contracts with grapes from Martha’s Vineyard, Heitz will open to outside suppliers for the 2025 harvest. This is a strong signal of the changing supply chain logic in the United States.

Trends, data and scenarios to watch

• Super-rich investing in European wine A Knight Frank survey reports that 46% of the world’s top fortunes are considering moving to Europe with an interest in wine or olive oil properties—conceived as “hybrid” assets, halfway between lifestyle and income.
• Artificial Intelligence and Wine Sustainability A recent study (preprint) shows how AI is entering the winery, with applications in precision viticulture, system monitoring, irrigation optimization, and personalized wine tourism experiences.
• Vinitaly.USA 2025: Strengthening the Bridge with the US Market. Vinitaly.USA returns to Chicago on October 5–6, with approximately 250 companies and 1,500 buyers expected. The event will be accompanied by wine2wine, a business forum with thematic sessions on the future of the sector. Italian Exports Suffer / US Tariffs / Trump Duties. Trade tensions between the EU and the United States are impacting European wine: French and Italian companies are already feeling the effects of the tariffs and are seeking compensatory measures.
• Emerging Phenomena: Wine-Producing Sweden Bucking the trend of many stagnant markets, Sweden is emerging as an “atypical” wine region, with growing investment in the supply chain and local production.
• Regulatory Perspectives: Minimum Taxes and Minimum Tariffs An academic study assesses the impact of policies such as the introduction of a minimum price per alcoholic unit (MUP) compared to volumetric taxation, highlighting potential effects on the profits of wineries of different sizes.

with updated useful insights as a basis for the wine/cellar sector:

Recent Key Trends (5–7 points)

• The 2025 harvest in Italy is expected to be around 47.4 million hectoliters , up 8% compared to 2024, with quality judged to be “excellent / good” (Unione Italiana Vini)
• Some denominations in central and northern Italy are reporting reduced yields (-10-20%) compared to the previous year, with the desired effect of rebalancing supply and demand.
• On Italian domestic markets, sales in the large-scale retail channel show 0.7% in value but –2.5% in volume (August 2024-July 2025) — sparkling wines are holding up better than the rest (1.9% value, 2.5% volume)
• In the first half of 2025, Italian wine exports recorded 1.5% in value but -3% in volume; the greatest difficulties are evident in the United States and Germany
• The uniform US tariffs of 15% for European wines (which came into force in summer 2025) put strong pressure on the entry and medium segments, in the absence of specific exemptions (valuation of premium wines)
• The EU-Mercosur agreement, now authorized by the European Commission (to be ratified by the Member States), provides for the progressive elimination of wine duties for Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay and Paraguay, with a potential strategic opening for Italian wine in Latin American markets.
• Globally, the bulk wine market appears “sluggish”: grape prices are struggling to recover, while stocks are high and demand is weak, penalizing negotiations for bulk and blended wines (Ciatti report September 2025)
• On the technological horizon, Artificial Intelligence is also gaining ground in sustainable viticulture and wineries, with applications in environmental monitoring, resource management and production process optimisation (study “Artificial Intelligence for Sustainable Wine Industry”, 2025)

• M&A Radar

Prices & Harvest (mini-box)