(Italy & the world – for acquisition, divestment, and positioning decisions).

1. Key points 2025 (snapshot)

• Production & Harvest Italy 2025
  • Joint estimate by Assoenologi–Ismea–UIV: 47.4 Mhl (8% vs 2024), a vintage defined as “excellent” in terms of quality.
  • Alternative reading Legacoop: more conservative estimate ~44 Mhl , considered more realistic with the harvest almost completed.
• Inventory: The Real Elephant in the Room
  • As of October 31, 2025, Italian warehouses recorded 44.5 Mhl of wine (almost an entire harvest), 23.8% vs. September 30 and 5.2% vs. October 31, 2024 .
  • Over 62% of stocks are in the North → strong risk of pressure on bulk and generic DOCs.
• Bulk wine: prices holding up, demand not
  • Global bulk market H1-2025: stable values (-0.3%) with average price ~0.78 €/L (2.1%) despite declining volumes.
  • In Italy, recent reports confirm ~€0.78/L and “weak trade, cautious demand, high inventories”.
• Italian exports: selective, not generalized growth
  • Some analyses for H1 2025 indicate a 1.5% value/2.1% volume ratio for the 12 main destinations; however, the year is uneven across markets and categories.
  • The new 15% US tariffs could cost Italian companies >€300 million per year , with a strong impact on Prosecco, Pinot Grigio, Moscato, and Tuscan reds.
• Innovation as a discriminant of value
  • 2025 studies confirm the growing use of AI, remote sensing, and automation in vineyards, wineries, and wine tourism: the tech component becomes a KPI in industrial assessments and due diligence.

2. M&A Radar (Italy – focus 2H 2025)

3. Prices & Harvest – operational mini box

Italian Harvest 2025

• Realistic range: 44–47.4 Mhl , with consensus on good-excellent quality but strong heterogeneity by area.
• Substantial message: it’s not quantity that’s the problem, but how to position it in a context of stagnant consumption and full warehouses.

Stocks

• 44.5 Mhl of wine as of 10/31/2025 , 5.2% year on year.
• In fact, the system has almost two harvests in its belly between stock and new crop.

Grape prices / bulk (flash)

• Umbria (October):
  • Sangiovese 26–30 €/q , Merlot/Cabernet 28–30 €/q , Sagrantino DOCG 100–140 €/q , with strong downward corrections vs 2023.
• Veneto / Vicenza DOC: grapes €40–60/q for white/red DOC.
• Bulk Italy: ~0.78 €/L , “not very active market, pressure on volumes”.

4. Strategic reading for acquisition / divestment / positioning

I’ll summarize the key implications for you as if you were evaluating an M&A dossier or reorganizing a winery portfolio:

1. Multiples to be handled with care
   • With 44.5 Mhl in the cellar and an abundant harvest, paying multiples based on “volume growth” logic is difficult to defend.
   • It makes sense to reward: brand equity, premium/PDO segments, export capacity, level of digitalization and automation , not mere hectolitres.
2. Assets “full of wine” ≠ rich assets
   • High stocks today are a working capital risk , not a guarantee:
     • A clear plan for intelligent disposal is needed (blend, B2B channel, opportunistic export)
     • And, in parallel, I am redesigning the range so as not to repeat the same problem in 2026.
3. Technology and channel become price drivers in deals
   • Operations like Tannico–Castel show that the value moves towards:
     • end customer control (data)
     • ability to do dynamic pricing and assortment
     • and technological assets that can be integrated into the supply chain.
   • In target wineries, ask yourself: how much is the digital component worth compared to the hectares?
4. Export: mandatory diversification
   • US tariffs and macro volatility force us to:
     • review country mix (strengthen Northern Europe, Canada, APAC, emerging markets)
     • rethink the role of bulk as a tactical lever (spot/medium-term contracts) and not as the only safety valve.

5. “To-do list” for a board in the next 6–9 months

• For buyers (industrial buyers or fund):
  • favor targets with strong brands, healthy exports, a premium mix , a low inventory/turnover ratio, and investments already underway in AI/automation.
  • discount overstock risk in multiples, building earn-outs linked to inventory reduction and margin growth, not just turnover.
• For those selling or looking for partners:
  • clean up the profile: inventory plan, range redesign, margin KPIs per label , digital roadmap (CRM, D2C, well-managed e-labels).
  • present itself as a ready-made platform (processes, governance, data), not as a “cellar full of wine”.
• For consortia and territories:
  • avoid a price war on generic drugs;
  • focus on performance disciplines, clear segmentation, credible storytelling , supported by data and not just by territorial rhetoric.

Here’s a concise and actionable update for the wine sector, useful for guiding strategic decisions about acquisition, divestment, or positioning.

Bullet points

• Italian wine exports in the first eight months of 2025 recorded a decrease of -2.9% in volume (≈ 1.37 billion litres) and -1.9% in value (≈ €5 billion) compared to the same period of the previous year.
• In the first half of 2025, according to the report of the 12 main international destinations, Italy recorded a 2.1% growth in volume and 1.5% in value for wine exports.
• The global wine market is experiencing a decline in consumption and production volumes to the lowest levels in decades: the crisis in numbers is being offset by selective growth in premium wines.
• At a technical/production level: for bulk wine in Italy, in 1H 2025, indicative average price ~ €0.78/litre (2.1% compared to the previous period) but with weak demand.
• For the 2025 Italian harvest: initial estimate of ~47.4 Mhl (8% vs 2024), but some revisions bring the forecast towards ~44 Mhl; overall quality is reported as “good-excellent”, but weather uncertainties and supply/demand imbalance risks persist.
• In the technological and digital fields: an academic study highlights how AI (machine learning, computer vision) is emerging as a strategic lever in viticulture, production, and wine tourism.
• A significant M&A transaction: Groupe Castel (via its subsidiary CASTEL‐Vins) has acquired 100% of the Italian wine e‑commerce platform Tannico, previously controlled by Campari Group and Moët Hennessy.

M&A Radar

Prices & Harvest

• Average price of bulk wine in Italy (1H 2025): ~ €0.78/litre , 2.1% compared to the previous period.
• Grape prices in some areas: for example, in Veneto/Vicenza for DOC grapes ~ €40-60/q.– (higher organic premiums) and in Pavia Barbera DOP ~ €48/q (range €40-55/q) – generally downward trend compared to previous years.
• Italian stocks: as of October 31, 2025, wine stocks ~ 44.5 Mhl (23.8% compared to September 30, 2025; 5.2% vs. October 31, 2024) – signals potential overaccumulation.
• Italy 2025 harvest: initial estimates ~47.4 Mhl (8% vs 2024) but revised to ~44 Mhl; quality reported as good–excellent but be wary of weather and demand.

Here is the updated briefing for the wine sector (Italy globally), designed for acquisition, sales, and positioning operations.

Key points

– Italian wine exports in the first six months of 2025 recorded an increase in volume (2.1%) and value (1.5%), reaching approximately 703.5 million litres and a turnover of €2.8 billion.

– The international bulk wine market shows a slight contraction in volume (-2.3% in 1H 2025 compared to 1H 2024) but stability in value thanks to an increase in average prices of 2.1% (around €0.78/litre).

– The 2025 Italian harvest is initially estimated at around 47.4 Mhl (8% vs 2024), but some revisions update the forecast to around 44 Mhl. General quality is reported as “good-excellent”, but with concerns linked to weather conditions and possible supply/demand imbalances.

– In the M&A sphere, the French group Castel Vins has acquired 100% of the Italian platform Tannico, previously owned by the Campari Group and Moët Hennessy.

The 2025 report on the Italian wine industry highlights pressures on domestic and international consumption: changing patterns, growing competition, and the urgent need to transform quantity into value.

– Growing focus on innovation: A 2025 study shows how AI (machine learning, computer vision) is emerging as a lever in viticulture, production, and wine tourism to improve sustainability and efficiency.

– Exports to the USA are showing signs of weakness: although Italy remains the leader in foreign wines, the average price per liter in the USA is declining, and tariff/metropolitan barriers are pushing for market and channel diversification.

M&A Radar

Prices & Harvest (mini-box)

• Average price of bulk wine in Italy : ~€0.78/litre, 2.1% compared to the previous period.
• Italy 2025 harvest : initially estimated at ~47.4 Mhl (8% vs 2024) with some revisions towards ~44 Mhl; good/excellent quality but with regional variability.
• Trends and weather/market note : Estimated production increases, but bulk market under pressure in some areas; innovation may be needed to avoid downward competition.

Here is the updated briefing for the wine sector (Italy globally), designed for acquisition, sales, and positioning operations.

Key points

• Wine imports into Belgium are expected to grow by 16.8% in volume in 2025, with the average price dropping to ~€3.51/litre.
• Italian wine exports in the first six months of 2025 recorded 1.5% in value (≈ €2.8 billion) and 2.1% in volume (≈ 703.5 million litres).
• Global wine trade in H1 2025 shows a decline: -2.3% in value, -3.7% in volume. The bulk wine market: in Italy, the average price was approximately €0.78/liter, down 2.1% compared to the previous period, but with high inventories (~36 Mhl) and weak demand.
• The 2025 harvest in Italy is estimated at around ~47.4 Mhl (8% compared to 2024) but more prudent revisions bring it to ~44 Mhl; “good-excellent” quality, but climate and yields are arousing concern.
• In the fine wine segment and in the luxury channel, global demand remains solid: the fine wine restaurant market is estimated at ~€58 billion in 2024.
• Innovation enters the vineyard and the cellar: an academic study highlights the growing use of AI, remote sensing, and digital management for sustainability, efficiency, and competitive advantage.

M&A Radar

Prices & Harvest (mini-box)

• Average price of bulk wine in Italy : ~€0.78/litre (2.1% vs previous period)
• Stockpiles in Italy : ~36 Mhl as of September 30, 2025, slow reductions and strong pressure on margins.
• Italy 2025 harvest : estimated ~47.4 Mhl (8% vs. 2024) but possible revisions to ~44 Mhl. Quality reported as “good-excellent”; climatic conditions (heat waves, irregular rainfall) to be monitored.