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Daily Report – November 10 2025 on the World of Wine (Italy & Global)

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Daily report – November 10, 2025 on the world of wine (Italy & global), designed for those who lead operations in wineries/consortia.

(Focus on Italy, global coordination for winery/consortium decisions and M&A)

  • 2025 harvest (EU/Italy/France): Copa-Cogeca estimates 145.5 Mhl EU (1% y/y; −7.5% vs. 5-year average). Italy leads with ~47 Mhl , Spain ~31–32 Mhl; France revised to ~36.2 Mhl due to heat and drought.
  • Italy – 2025 harvest: joint Assoenologi–Ismea–UIV estimate: 47.4 Mhl (8% vs 2024) with good/excellent quality; some supply chain readings indicate a possible “low-forties” (~44 Mhl) .
  • Italian wine exports: in July 2025 the YTD balance is −0.9% value / −3.4% volume ; USA in negative territory and affected by 15% tariffs (since August): −28% in value in the two-month period July-August .
  • Italian stocks: as of 09/30/2025 in the cellar ~36 Mhl (-9.6% vs July; 1.3% y/y) → pressure on bulk price lists.
  • Global market H1-2025: world trade −2.3% value / −3.7% volume ; bulk holds steady in value (−0.3%) with average price ~€0.78/L ( 2.1%) .
  • Rules & Labels: EU: Ingredients & Nutrition Facts mandatory from December 8, 2023 (also via e-label/QR ). OIV updates the 2025 standards (Codex/Practices/Labeling). In Italy, decrees of December 20, 2024, and May 14, 2025, regulate (partially) dealcoholized wine and its use in mixed-use premises; restrictions on PDO/PGI remain in place according to the current texts/amendments.
  • Awards/Rankings: “ Top 100 Best Buys 2025 ” (Wine Enthusiast): 17 Italian labels (Saracco, La Raia in the Top 10).

M&A Radar (updated 10/11/2025)

Deal / RumorPartsSize / noteGeoSource
Transfer of the Cinzano & Frattina brandsCampari → Caffo Group 1915€100 million ; closing expected by the end of 2025IT
Tannic (closing 06/10/25)CASTEL-Vins ↔︎ TannicndIT/FR
Talloria Valley (former Giordano complex, IWB) – binding offerCaffo Group 1915 ↔︎ Italian Wine Brandsnd; “new Cinzano House”; move expected by the end of 2025IT (Piedmont)

Prices & Harvest — mini box (flash)

Grapes 2025 (Umbria, Chamber of Commerce price lists / local press – October):

  • Sangiovese €26–30/q; Merlot/Cabernet €28–30/q; Sagrantino DOCG €100–140/q. Trends: −~30% y/y (up to −50% vs 2023); the only exception is Trebbiano Spoletino, which is rising sharply due to scarcity.

Bulk wine (global):

  • H1-2025 average bulk price ~€0.78/L (2.1%), weak trade; in Italy demand is cautious with high inventories .

Stocks & Returns (Italy):

  • Stocks ~36 Mhl as of September 30; harvest ~47.4 Mhl (good/excellent quality) with possible reductions in some areas.

France (weather/yield):

  • 36.2 Mhl expected; heat waves and summer droughts have compressed volumes, quality varies by area.

Daily Report – November 9 2025

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on the world of wine (Italy & globally), designed for those who manage operations in wineries/consortia.

Key updates

  • The estimate for the 2025 Italian harvest is around ~47.4 million hl , 8% compared to 2024, which confirms Italy’s world leadership in terms of volume.
  • Italian wine exports in the first seven months of 2025 show a slight decrease in value (-0.9%) and a contraction in volume (-3.4%) compared to the same period in 2024.
  • The global wine market (H1 2025) records a decrease in volume (~‑3.7%) and value (~‑2.3%), while the average price per litre in some segments (bulk) rises to ~€0.78/litre (approximately 2.1%).
  • Inventories remain high in the Italian bulk and bulk wine segment: large quantities clash with demand, putting pressure on margins.
  • Innovation: An academic study reports how AI and remote sensing are playing a growing role in viticulture, production, and wine tourism.
  • Changing preferences: interest in whites, sparkling wines, and innovative formats is growing; red wines are showing signs of stagnation or decline (specific data for Italy is not always disclosed). (Source: broader imported trend)
  • Italy has allocated over €27 million (with a target of >€63 million in total co-financed) to promote Italian wine in non-EU markets for 2025/26, considered strategic in a context of export challenges.

M&A Radar

Deal/RumorParties involvedSize (if stated)GeographySource
Transfer of the Cinzano Frattina brandCampari Group → Caffo Group 1915~€100 millionItaly

Prices & Harvest – mini-box Harvest & yields

  • Italy 2025: ~47.4 Mhl estimated (8% vs 2024) but with local/regional uncertainties.
  • In some regions (e.g. Tuscany) forecast decrease: Tuscany estimated ~2.4 Mhl vs 2.7 Mhl in 2024.

Grape / bulk wine prices (Italy)

  • Bulk market Italy: average price reported ~€0.78/litre (2.1% vs previous period) in some reports.
  • Price pressure in regions with large surpluses and weak demand. High inventories = compressed margins.

Weather/Quality Note

  • Good-excellent quality reported for many areas, but increasing quantities in some regions which may generate supply/demand imbalances.

Daily Report – November 8, 2025

with:

on the world of wine (Italy & globally), designed for those who manage operations in winer.

Key Updates

  • Estimates for the 2025 Italian harvest indicate approximately 47.4 million hl , an increase of approximately 8% compared to 2024.
  • Italian wine exports in the first seven months of 2025 recorded a -0.9% in value and -3.4% in volume compared to the same period in 2024, with the US market declining for the first time.
  • The global wine market (H1 2025) recorded a decrease of –2.3% in value and –3.7% in volume, with the average price per litre increasing to around €3.57.
  • Italian inventories remain high and represent a potential pressure on margins in the loose and bulk segment.
  • Innovation: An academic study highlights how AI and remote sensing are playing a growing role in viticulture, production, and wine tourism.
  • The focus on younger consumers and on white/sparkling wines shows a change in preferences: in Italy, a recent analysis reports -6.8% in red wine sales, while white and sparkling wines are growing by ~5%.
  • In the M&A sector, although the sector is still in the process of stabilizing, signs are emerging such as the sale of the Cinzano brand from Campari Group to Gruppo Caffo 1915 for ~€100 million.

M&A Radar

Deal/RumorParties involvedSize (if stated)GeographySource
Transfer of the Cinzano Frattina brandCampari Group → Caffo Group 1915~€100 millionItaly

Prices & Harvest – mini box

Harvest & yields

  • Italy 2025: estimate ~47.4 Mhl (8% vs 2024).
  • Grape quality reported to be good, but with an increase in quantities in some regions and possible imbalances between supply and demand.

Grape / bulk wine prices (Italy)

  • Umbria: Sangiovese ~€26-30/100 kg; Merlot/Cabernet ~€28-30/100 kg; Sagrantino DOCG ~€100-140/100 kg.
  • Bulk wine in Italy: average price ~€0.78/liter, 2.1% lower than the previous period. Trend : grape prices in some regions are down compared to last year (e.g., Umbria: approximately -31% for Sangiovese).

Wine Trends in Italy – Week 3-7 November 2025 (Analysis by Eros Zago)

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The Italian and European wine sector is experiencing a period of apparent stability, but beneath the surface, profound transformations are taking place that are reshaping production, trade, and consumption.

Wine Trends in Italy – Week 3-7 November 2025 (Analysis by Eros Zago)

The week ends with a complex picture: signs of production recovery, tensions on international markets, an increasingly selective consumer, and new strategic lines for the relaunch of Italian wine.

European production: apparent stability, structural fragility

European Union wine production is estimated at 145.5 million hectolitres for 2025 (1% compared to 2024), but remains 7.5% below the five-year average.
Italy confirms its leadership with 47 million hectolitres (8%), ahead of France (37 Mhl, 2.3%) and Spain (31.5 Mhl, -15%).
Behind the slight recovery in volumes lies a long-term downward trend: since 2018, EU production has fallen by over 40 million hectoliters. 2025 was marked by extreme weather events and a complex trade environment, exacerbated by new US tariffs on European wines.

Fine wines and new tastes: the era of “liquid awareness”

According to the London Fine Wine Trends Report from London club 67 Pall Mall , the fine wine market is transforming.
The evolved consumer favours authenticity, drinkability and immediate value , while the myth of big labels and the “en primeur” system is losing its appeal.
Interest in South Africa (26% in 10 years), English Sparkling Wine (79% since 2015) and consumption of Italian wines (37.5%) are growing, particularly from regions such as Sicily and Tuscany .
The future of fine wine will be driven by a more informed, digital and independent public, with increasing attention to sustainability, low alcohol content and lightweight packaging .

Geopolitics and Trade: Italy Seeks a Transatlantic Alliance

In Rome, the meeting between Lamberto Frescobaldi (UIV) and European Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič confirmed the need for a common strategy to counter American tariffs and accelerate treaties with Mercosur and India .
Italy is aiming for an alliance with American trade , emphasizing that every dollar invested in EU wines generates $4.50 for the US economy. Wine thus also becomes a tool of economic diplomacy .

Signs of recovery: Financial law and dealcoholized wines

Two pieces of news fuel confidence in the future of the sector:

  1. 2026 Budget Law – Budget law provides for an increase in funding for promotion and internationalization of up to €250 million annually for the three-year period 2026-2028.
  2. Decree on dealcoholized wines – currently awaiting final approval, will open a new production frontier, meeting the growing demand for low- and no-alcohol wines .

A double strategic step towards a more competitive, modern, and international Italian wine.

Global trade and re-exports: the new geography of wine

The OIV study quantifies the value of global re-exports at 4.55 billion euros , equal to 13.5% of the total.
New hubs are emerging: the UK, Belgium and Singapore , high-value clearinghouses for premium and super-premium wines.
For Italy, re-export represents approximately 8% of total exports , highlighting the growing importance of distribution as a strategic lever for competitiveness and profitability.

Domestic consumption: “less, but better”

The NielsenIQ data presented at Milan Wine Week depicts an Italy that drinks less but makes better choices.
In off-trade channels, volume is decreasing but value is increasing, driven by sparkling wines, versatile whites and DOC/IGP .
The 30-44 age group is leading the transformation: informed, sustainable, price-conscious and open to deal-alcohol .
In the Horeca channel, the “quality of the experience” dominates: a thoughtful wine list, local storytelling, and staff training.
The trend towards premiumisation is consolidating: less quantity, more identity and transparency.

European policies: simplifications and flexibility

The European Parliament, through the Agriculture Committee (COMAGRI), has approved the amendments to the “Wine Package” , which simplify labelling, promotion and financial management .
A step forward towards more efficient regulation, with greater support for exports and long-term promotional projects.

Conclusion: the future of Italian wine

Italian wine enters 2026 with solid foundations but decisive challenges : economic sustainability, market diversification, digitalization, and new consumption styles.
Italy maintains its manufacturing leadership, but must now consolidate it with a vision of value, identity, and innovation .
The watchword is clear: less quantity, more strategic quality —from the vineyard to the table, from the territory to the world.

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