Between the end of the year and the beginning of 2026, Italian wine will enter a new cycle with a clear picture: weak domestic demand, margins under pressure, exports increasingly crucial but more difficult to defend, and a structural acceleration in sparkling wines, white wines, low/no alcohol, and wine tourism.
The signals are not seasonal “noise”: they indicate a market that is re-establishing itself at different consumption levels than in the past, with the need to shift attention from quantity to the value chain.
1) Italy: Large-scale retail trade in difficulty, declining consumption in volume and price as the only lever
The most recent data converge: Italian large-scale distribution is failing to recover and 2025 is heading towards the fifth consecutive negative closure .
- In the third quarter of 2025 (Wine Monitor analysis based on NIQ data): volumes -2.4% , values -0.2% . The summer did not generate the expected “pull-through” effect.
- January–September 2025 : values 0.7% with volumes -2.3% . The stability is due almost exclusively to average prices (3.1%) , a typical sign of demand under pressure.
- Summary data January–November 2025 (Circana/WineNews): 552 million litres sold ( -3% ), value €2.05 billion (-0.4%) , average price €3.72/litre (2.7%) . The 0.75 bottle is holding up better: volumes -1.8% , values 0.4% , average price €5.4/litre (2.3%) .
Channels: Discount stores are cooling (expansion phase halted), while e-commerce is accelerating thanks to price competitiveness and the summer response; hypermarkets and supermarkets remain the most robust formats in terms of value retention, while cash & carry remains the most fragile (though losses are slowing).
Categories:
- Still and sparkling wines : values -0.2% , volumes -3.3% , average prices 3.2% → consumption falls more than turnover.
- Sparkling wines : volumes 2.8% and substantially stable values, but with average prices -2.8% → more “accessible” mix and more promotions: it sells, but generates less unit value .
Strategic reading: the domestic market is no longer the driving force. “Value” growth in large-scale retail is fragile because it is fueled by price, not demand. Consequently, competition is shifting to margins, efficiency, product portfolio, and positioning .
2) Cantina Italia: increasing inventories and pressure on supply management
As of November 30, 2025, the following were found in Italian winemaking plants:
- 53.3 million hl of wine (8.6% vs 30/11/2024)
- 9.7 million hl of must (12.5%)
- 9.5 million hl VNAIF (stable)
Wine is concentrated in the North ( 60.7% , with a strong presence in Veneto). The breakdown by category confirms a “value” market but with significant stocks: 54.6% DOP , 26.5% IGP , varietals 1.7% , other wines 17.3% . Furthermore, IGP stocks are highly concentrated: 20 denominations out of 526 account for 58.4% .
Strategic reading: more inventory with declining consumption means greater risk of promotional pressure , financial tensions and the need to manage production with non-postponable choices (portfolio, rotation, channels, markets).
3) Export: central but more complex, especially USA (exchange duties)
With a prudent domestic economy, exports remain a vital lever. But in 2025, the external environment will become more “hostile” due to costs and volatility, particularly in the United States.
USA – double shock:
- Rush for shipments in Q1 2025 to anticipate the announced universal tariff (Liberation Day, April 2)
- From April to September the dollar lost about -10% against the euro , worsening the competitiveness on the shelf
The Wine Monitor analysis shows that in the first quarter, the increase in the average price in dollars primarily affected French wines (more “premium” hoarding, more sensitive to ad valorem duties). Over the rest of the year, the combined effect of exchange rates increases the complexity: it’s not just “how much the price rises,” but how much spending power can sustain along the three-tier system (markup multiplier).
Italian sparkling wine exports: volumes hold up, prices fall
In the first nine months of 2025 : €1.67 billion in sparkling wine exports ( -0.5% ), volumes down 2.19% → demand is present, but average prices are declining to remain competitive. Sparkling wines account for approximately 28% of wine exports .
Absolute driver: Prosecco DOP with €1.29 billion (0.5%) , 77% of total sparkling wines and approximately 23% of wine exports; volumes 4.8% .
Markets: USA stable and pro-Prosecco; UK and Germany showing signs of difficulty; France growing imports of Italian sparkling wine (a significant figure also for positioning purposes).
Strategic reading: the game is no longer about “exporting,” but defending margins and positioning with surgical commercial governance: consistent channels, tiers, assortment, pricing, and promotions.
4) Europe 2035: structural decline in consumption, production and exports
The EU Commission’s projections up to 2035 confirm a long-term trend:
- EU consumption -0.9% per year to approximately 19.3 litres per capita (from 21.2 litres on average 2021–2025)
- EU production -0.5% per year towards 138 million hl
- vineyard areas -0.6% until 2035
- EU exports -0.6% per year (imports -1.9%)
Drivers: health concerns, competition from other beverages, younger people drinking less alcohol, preference for higher-end but less frequent wines; declining demand for red wines, growth in whites and sparkling wines; increased interest in wine-based and no-/low-alcohol beverages (still small volumes).
Strategic reading: it’s not a short cycle: it’s structural change . Companies must redesign their models and markets, not “wait for it to pass.”
5) Alcohol Dealers: A Real Opportunity, But Italy Is Blocked by the Fiscal Decree
The Italian sector is “waiting” for the MEF-MASAF interministerial decree implementing the tax regulations: UIV is urging action because the stalemate (over two months in the Treasury) is leaving Italy with a four-year competitive disadvantage compared to other European producers (EU regulation, December 2021). In the meantime, many companies have already invested in equipment, training, and positioning.
Strategic reading: without an operational regulatory and tax framework, investments risk stagnation. This isn’t a trend: it’s about defending competitiveness in growing segments (low/no, hybrid beverages).
6) Trends for 2025/2026: fewer bottles, higher quality. White wines and sparkling wines are on the rise.
The Vinarius observatory (wine shop network, 120 locations, ~€50 million turnover) confirms:
- volume consumption down, but value more “resistant”
- more robust premium range, more stressed low range
- growth of whites and bubbles (Classic Method in evidence)
- preference for lightness, freshness, drinkability
- the great reds “remain”, but are consumed with more selectivity
It is the same direction indicated by international analyses (Wine-Lister): a more elegant and approachable style of wine tourism as a lever, with attention to prices and sustainability.
7) Supply-demand imbalance: the Coface reading and the incomplete “cure”
Coface describes a structural imbalance: EU consumption down 35% since 2000 , world consumption estimated at 214 million hl (among its lowest levels) by 2025, with challenges outside the EU (China down 60% vs. pre-pandemic, the US facing more complex barriers). European measures, primarily based on grubbing-up, are helping, but they’re not enough , as the issue also involves demand and changing behaviors. For producers most exposed to the lower end of the spectrum, financial strength, market diversification, credit risk management, and liquidity protection become crucial.
8) Wine tourism: Italy’s great asset (and a “digital” accelerator)
The 2025 Italian Food and Wine Tourism Report (Roberta Garibaldi) positions Italy as the leading international destination for food and wine tourism . Return and spending intentions are growing: €155/day (€52 for restaurants, €28 for typical products). Tourists are younger and more digital; social media and platforms influence their choices; willingness to pay for personalized experiences is increasing. AI is becoming increasingly important in travel planning (already a significant share in the USA and France).
Strategic reading: wine tourism is not an “accessory”: it is a valuable channel, a generator of brand equity and a DTC (direct sales) lever in a world where traditional channels compress margins.
Final summary: What this week really says (and what to do)
- The domestic market is structurally slowing down : sales are decreasing in large-scale retail trade, and value retention is often price-driven.
- Rising inventories, weak consumption = risk of pressure on prices and finances: supply and rotation governance needed.
- Exports remain vital, but things aren’t getting any easier : the US is dealing with tariffs, the exchange rate, and the three-tier system; the UK and Germany are downgrading; clear decisions are needed.
- Sparkling wines and white wines are driving demand , but be careful: bubbles are holding up even while lowering prices, so the challenge is to protect value.
- Low/no alcohol and hybrid beverages are real trends: Italy must unblock the tax decree to avoid further competitive losses.
- The future is “less volume, more quality, and more experience” : premium is more resilient, entry-level segment is more fragile; wine tourism and DTC are becoming pillars.
- 2026 = “laser focus” : not dispersion, but clear priorities on brand, sales force, consistent pricing and sharing resources on foreign markets.
- Communication needs to be updated : fewer self-referential rituals, more authenticity, simplicity, and the centrality of the experience (in the cellar and in actual consumption).
In short: Italian wine isn’t experiencing a “product crisis,” but rather a model transition . The winners are those who can read the numbers without nostalgia and transform them into operational choices: a smarter portfolio, better-served markets, a more secure price, and a narrative finally aligned with how people (really) experience wine today.
