Recent Updates (Italy & Global).
- Italy aims to regain the top spot in world production in 2025: estimated harvest of 47.4 million hectoliters (Italy), 8% vs. 2024, with vineyards generally in excellent condition, quality ranging from “good to excellent” in many regions.
- Despite recovering production, the market is suffering from saturation: unsold stocks as of July 31st amount to approximately 39.8 million hl , and fears of oversupply after the harvest.
- Italian exports in the first six months of 2025: slightly down (-0.4%) compared to the first half of 2024, with a volume of -3.1%. However, the USA and Canada recorded positive performances: Italian exports to the USA increased by 5.2%, and Canada by 12.8%.
- Some regions show diverging trends: Tuscany is forecasting a double-digit reduction in production (≈ −13%) vs 2024; Veneto is experiencing strong growth (estimated at ~12 million hl, constituting almost 1/4 of national production) supported by favorable conditions.
- France expects to produce around 37.4 million hl , despite modest increases vs 2024, but remains well below the 5-year average due to heat, drought, and reduced juice content in the grapes.
M&A Radar
| Operation / Rumor | Parties involved | Value / size if known | Place | Source & Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Italian Wine Group – GIV acquires 100% of Tenuta Rapitalà (Sicily) | GIV acquires the remaining shares (10%) that it did not hold in Tenuta Rapitalà (already the majority share since 1999) | Value not disclosed; Tenuta Rapitalà owns 176 hectares of organic vineyards in Sicily. | Sicily, Italy | |
| Campari sells the Cinzano and Frattina (sparkling/vermouth) brands to Caffo Group 1915 | Seller: Campari; Buyer: Caffo Group 1915 | ~ €100 million | Italy (national portfolio movement) | |
| Italian Wine Brands Acquires Svinando Wine Club Through Giordano Vini | IWB acquires Svinando Wine Club through a subsidiary | Undisclosed amount | Italy |
Prices & Harvest Mini‑Box
| Region / Voice | Current situation / available price | Trends (vs week/year) / yields / climate notes |
|---|---|---|
| Table grapes / fresh bunches | In Italy, the wholesale price for fresh black grapes, unspecified varieties, is ~ €4/kg (comparative data 2025). | Stable prices compared to recent periods; but high variability by variety/quality; harvest early in many areas; risk of heat and drought in the South (Puglia, Sicily) if a very hot August/September could worsen the situation. |
| Generic wine grapes (bulk grapes) | Current estimated price range between USD 1.19 − 5.46/kg for grapes in Italy (mixed varieties) | Slightly downtrend compared to last year in some areas; high inventories exerting pressure; improved yields where irrigation and plant disease management have held up. |
| Expected yields / harvest volume | Italy: 2025 harvest estimated at ~47.4 million hl; Southern regions 19% vs. 2024; Tuscany −13% vs. 2024; Veneto growing strongly; quality judged to be high overall. | Climatic conditions: winter with good water reserves, mild spring; variable summer; some northern regions with problems of bad spring weather; late-season heat can affect acidity/organoleptic balance. |
Strategic Observations
- The global market is very attentive: US tariffs and subsidy/disincentive policies (e.g., the dismantling of vineyards in France) are factors that impact not only quantities/prices, but also market strategies, positioning, and investments.
- The issue of high inventories (stocks) is a real risk: coordination in trade, targeted promotion, and possible forward agreements are needed to limit the risk of price erosion.
- Quality as a competitive lever: excellent harvests offer opportunities for differentiation, to promote premium wines and strong denominations, but marketing must “storytell” effectively, even for new/distant markets.
Post ideas for professionals
- Title: “47.4 million hectoliters: how to transform 2025 abundance into added value without lowering prices” Corner: operational strategies to avoid the oversupply effect: forward contracts, partnerships with foreign bottlers, product diversification (premium / specialty), careful yield management, investing in branding and storytelling for high-margin segments.
- Title: “Italian Exports: USA & Canada Holding Firm, Europe and Asia Creaking – Which Alternative Markets Can Protect Ourselves from Tariffs?” Focus: In-depth country data, assessment of emerging markets with competitive gaps (e.g., South America, Africa, Southeast Asia), possible bilateral agreements, how to differentiate channels (online, HoReCa, retail), and institutional promotion policies.
- Title: “Niche M&A in Wine: Focusing on Territories, Organic Sustainability, and Brands with Strong Identity” Focus: Recent cases such as Rapitalà (organic, Sicily), strategies of groups like GIV, and Caffo’s acquisition of Cinzano/Frattina; assessing how these examples can serve as models for small/medium-sized wineries preparing for consolidation.
