Here is a dry, “boardroom-style” briefing updated to November 26, 2025.

1. Macro scenario – world

• Global production 2025 : OIV estimates ~232 Mhl (3% vs 2024) but still ≈-7% below the 5-year average → third consecutive year of structurally lower supply.
• Implicit: The scope for drastic price cuts on Italian wine is limited; competition is shifting to mix, brand, and channel , not to “selling off volumes.”

2. Italy – harvest, quality, supplies

• 2025 Harvest Italy
  • Official estimate by Assoenologi–Ismea–UIV: 47.4 Mhl (8% vs 2024), good-excellent quality.
  • Alternative Legacoop estimate / subsequent analyses: ~44 Mhl , considered closer to the final figure with the harvest almost over.
• Stocks : the latest supply chain readings indicate that, adding pre-harvest stock and the new harvest, the system moves in the order of almost two equivalent vintages in the cellar → the problem is not “making wine”, but how to dispose of it with a margin .

3. Export & markets

• Italy in 2025
  • 1st half: 2.1% volume and 1.5% value (L703.5 million; ~€2.8 billion) → still a positive signal.
  • First 7 months: -0.9% value / -3.4% volume for the 12 main destinations; July-September US trade drops sharply (up to -30% value with a 15% tariff).
• Reading: Italian exports are split in two
  • resilient in premium/well-served markets,
  • in difficulty in the USA and part of the non-EU → geographical reallocation and pricing architecture revision needed.

4. Prices, bulk, operational harvest

• Global bulk : H1-2025 volumes -2.3% vs H1-2024, substantially flat values; average price ~0.78 €/L (2.1%) .
• Bulk Italy : same order of magnitude ( ~0.78 €/L ), but with a market defined by brokers as “weak trading, cautious demand”.
• Grape prices – partial photograph
  • Piedmont: Nebbiolo from Barolo €2.4–€2.7/kg , Barbaresco €1.7–€2.2/kg , Moscato €1.15–€1.21/kg , Barbera d’Alba €0.9–€1.2/kg .
  • North East: declines 2025 vs 2023 for Amarone (≈-13%), Valpolicella (≈-8%), Prosecco Conegliano-Valdobbiadene (≈-9%); Franciacorta (5%) and Lugana (7%) buck the trend.
  • Central-Southern Italy (Umbria and surroundings): Sangiovese €26–30/q , Merlot/Cabernet €28–30/q , Sagrantino DOCG €100–140/q , often with strong corrections compared to the 2023 peaks.

Operational translation: pressure on generics and some “over-produced” DOCs , holding or growing in segments with a clear premium positioning.

5. M&A, capital and tech

• Tenuta Ulisse (White Bridge) acquires Montevetrano in Campania (after Cirelli): building a premium central-southern hub focused on brand and terroir.
• Other recent deals (not new today, but still directional): real estate-winemaking projects in Langhe-Roero (Tellus), Fantini expansion in Spain, performing entry of funds into wine CRM platforms (Wine Suite Performant Capital).
• Trend line : capital is betting on
  • brands with pricing power ,
  • premium land assets ,
  • channels (digital/export) and tech platforms, rather than on mere hectolitres.

6. Three messages for decision-making (winery, consortium, M&A)

1. Ratings: Reward value, not volume
   • In due diligence, multipliers should be linked to brands, premium mix, healthy exports, and digitalization ; stocks represent working capital risk , not automatic capital gains.
2. Export: derisking the US and redesigning the market portfolio
   • With the US volatile and pricey, 2026 should be planned by shifting part of the allocations towards Northern Europe, Canada, APAC and LatAm , with dynamic price lists and targeted use of re-export hubs.
3. Cellar 4.0 as a multiple driver
   • The 2025 studies on the technological transformation of wine confirm that AI, sensors, CRM/wine tourism are becoming indicators in the evaluations of industrial and financial investors.
   • Translated: a credible investment in data and automation today moves the multiple range by more than a few additional hectares.

This is the “working” picture as of November 26: little certainty about sales volumes, many indications about where the value is moving.

Daily wine & cellar briefing.

Key points

• The International Organisation of Vine and Wine (OIV) estimates world production for the 2025 harvest at around 232 Mhl , equal to 3% compared to 2024 but still ≈‑7% compared to the five-year average .
• For Italy, production is initially estimated at around 47.4 Mhl (8% vs. 2024), with “good-excellent” quality. However, some revisions suggest a figure of ≈ 44 Mhl due to weather variability.
• Italian exports are showing signs of weakness: in the first 8 months of 2025, the value is -1.9% compared to 2024 (≈ €5 billion in August) and the US market is in sharp contraction: -30% in August alone.
• The global bulk wine market recorded decreasing volumes (≈‑2.3% H1 2025 vs H1 2024), but substantially stable values thanks to the increase in the average price per litre (≈ €0.78/L, 2.1%).
• The M&A landscape in Italy remains fragmented: deals are focused on vertical integration, regional platforms, and “territorial hubs,” while the contribution of investment funds appears lacking.
• Innovation and sustainability are becoming strategic levers: an academic study reports that AI (machine learning, computer vision) is entering viticulture, production, and wine tourism as a tool for efficiency and differentiation.
• The regulatory and labeling landscape is evolving: environmental, informational, and digital (QR, traceability) requirements are growing, which for wineries are becoming not only compliance but also a potential positioning lever. (Source: industry analysis)

M&A Radar

Prices & Harvest – mini box

Harvest & Production

• Italy 2025 harvest estimated at ≈ 47.4 Mhl (8% vs 2024) but with revisions towards ≈ 44 Mhl. Overall quality judged good-excellent.
• Weather notes: Harvest early in many areas, fair health conditions, volumes below expectations in some regions.

Grape / bulk wine prices (Italy)

• Umbrian Grapes: Sangiovese ~26-30 €/q, Merlot/Cabernet ~28-30 €/q; Sagrantino DOCG ~100-140 €/q.
• Bulk wine in Italy: average price around €0.78/litre (2.1% vs. previous period) but volumes under pressure.

Strategic trends

• High stocks in the cellar: a context of abundant supply pushes wineries to carefully manage range/price.
• Grape prices vary significantly by area/grape: premium segments (DOCG) are holding up better.
• The need to transform “quantity into value”: positioning, foreign markets, and innovation become key levers.

Daily wine & cellar briefing.

Key points

• The International Organisation of Vine and Wine (OIV) estimates world production for the 2025 harvest at around 232 Mhl , equal to 3% compared to 2024 but still ≈‑7% compared to the five-year average .
• For Italy, production is initially estimated at around 47.4 Mhl (8% vs. 2024), with “good-excellent” quality. However, some revisions suggest a figure of ≈ 44 Mhl due to weather variability.
• Italian exports are showing signs of weakness: in the first 8 months of 2025, the value is -1.9% compared to 2024 (≈ €5 billion in August) and the US market is in sharp contraction: -30% in August alone.
• The global bulk wine market recorded decreasing volumes (≈‑2.3% H1 2025 vs H1 2024), but substantially stable values thanks to the increase in the average price per litre (≈ €0.78/L, 2.1%).
• The M&A landscape in Italy remains fragmented: deals are focused on vertical integration, regional platforms, and “territorial hubs,” while the contribution of investment funds appears lacking.
• Innovation and sustainability are becoming strategic levers: an academic study reports that AI (machine learning, computer vision) is entering viticulture, production, and wine tourism as a tool for efficiency and differentiation.
• The regulatory and labeling landscape is evolving: environmental, informational, and digital (QR, traceability) requirements are growing, which for wineries are becoming not only compliance but also a potential positioning lever. (Source: industry analysis)

M&A Radar

Prices & Harvest – mini box

Harvest & Production

• Italy 2025 harvest estimated at ≈ 47.4 Mhl (8% vs 2024) but with revisions towards ≈ 44 Mhl. Overall quality judged good-excellent.
• Weather notes: Harvest early in many areas, fair health conditions, volumes below expectations in some regions.

Grape / bulk wine prices (Italy)

• Umbrian Grapes: Sangiovese ~26-30 €/q, Merlot/Cabernet ~28-30 €/q; Sagrantino DOCG ~100-140 €/q.
• Bulk wine in Italy: average price around €0.78/litre (2.1% vs. previous period) but volumes under pressure.

Strategic trends

• High stocks in the cellar: a context of abundant supply pushes wineries to carefully manage range/price.
• Grape prices vary significantly by area/grape: premium segments (DOCG) are holding up better.
• The need to transform “quantity into value”: positioning, foreign markets, and innovation become key levers.