On the supply side, the 2025 harvest is estimated at 47–47.4 million hl with good/excellent quality and high cellar stocks (~37 million hl): a “precarious equilibrium” scenario in which protecting profitability is more important than maximizing volumes.
Global demand slowing, US tariffs at 15% compressing margins, Italian large-scale retail trade holding up in value but losing in volume.
Key points of the week
- Cavit (Trentino) : Message to suppliers — possible reductions in remuneration due to pressure on costs and profitability; declining international demand, US tariffs = ~$1 per shelf on wines priced at $14–$15. First half of 2025: -6–10% in various markets; sparkling wines 7.6% . Strategy: pass 10% on to consumers, 5% absorbed by the supply chain.
- Italian exports H1 2025 (Istat) : -0.4% value , -3.1% volume (~1 billion l). USA and Canada growing ; declines in Germany, UK, Russia, Asia (China, Japan) . Sparkling wines : value -0.4% (€1 billion), volume 0.1% (254.1 million l).
- Tre Bicchieri/Gambero Rosso : H1 2025 -0.48% value (€3.86 billion) ; volumes -3.2% . Prosecco Dop : volumes 3.9%, value 1.3% (€836 million) but lower mix ; Asti declines (quantity -16%, value -12%) in Russia. Bottles <2 l: values stable, volumes -3%.
- Large-scale retail trade in Italy (Circana) : last 12 months -0.7% value (€1.88 billion) , -2.5% volume (427.8 million litres) . Formats: 0.75 litre -0.9% (but 80% of the value, €1.4%), large bottles -7.7% , bricks -5.4% , bag-in-box 2.5% .
- US tariffs and prices : companies absorb the impact ; average price -13.5% in July (from $6.52 to $5.64/l). Tariff costs for Italy: $61 million in three months , just below France ($62.5 million).
- Regional export geography (H1 2025): Veneto leader €1.4 billion (1.5%, 37.1% of the total). Tuscany follows with €588 million (~-1%) , Piedmont with €553 million (-2.2%) . Lombardy (9.1%) , Friuli Venezia Giulia (15.2%) , Puglia (5.7%) , and Sicily (4.8%) are growing.
- China : Italy at €33.6 million (-21.7%) ; overall Chinese imports to restart in 2024, but sentiment with Italian wine remains weak ; the spotlight is on the Vinitaly China Roadshow .
- 2025 production : Italy expected to be #1 in the world (~ 47–47.4 million hl , 8% over 2024). Driven by the South (19%) ; Central Italy -3% (Tuscany -13%). Good/excellent quality, but risk of price pressure from high inventories.
- Climate & Policy : Supply chain divided over uprooting , yield reduction , plant permit management, and supply chain agreement (hypothesis of lower Ho.Re.Ca. markups versus rising restaurant costs). Convergence on extraordinary promotions (primarily in the USA) and on quality as a defensive lever.
Main markets (H1 2025)
- USA : €988 million (5.2%) , L179–180 million (1.1%) ; ongoing tariff impact, signs of slowdown in Q2 (Apr-Jun -1/-2%).
- Germany : €573 million (-1.8%) , 234.5 million l (-7.4%) .
- UK : €370 million (-4.5%) , €118 million (-2.1%) .
- Canada : €198 million (12.8%) , 34.9 million l (6.6%) .
- Switzerland : €195 million (0.4%) .
- France : €158 million (1.8/1.9%) .
- Russia : €75.6 million (-37.5%) , volumes halved; Prosecco -30% .
- Japan : €87–88 million (-7.4/7.5%) .
- China : €33.6 million (-21/22%) .
- Brazil : €18.6 million (5.5%) ; under special observation.
- Vietnam : €6.1 million (16%) .
Strategic reading (for wineries, consortia, investors)
- Profitability under pressure : tariffs, mix-downs, cost inflation and more moderate consumption are pushing us to reduce yields , reposition price lists and tighten promotional controls (avoiding “blind” discounts that erode brands).
- Portfolio shift : sparkling wines still resilient , but no longer the automatic locomotive; fresh whites and fast-moving denominations perform better than structured reds in large-scale retail outlets.
- Channels : Large-scale retail trade maintains value; bag-in-box growth: opportunities for “quality BIB” lines. On-trade must be revitalized with targeted policies and staff training.
- Geographies : The USA remains core but requires surgical pricing and anti-tariff plans (hedging, long-term contracts, co-promotions with distributors). Canada and Brazil are developing; Russia and China must be managed with selective tactics and B2B/B2C education projects. Northern EU is cooling: work on value/service .
- Supply : abundant harvest, high stocks ⇒ manage volumes (scheduled bulk sales, technical distillations where available, deferred bottling, selective private label only if it protects margins).
- Communication : telling the story of origin, sustainability, and conscious moderation ; less “extravagance,” more authenticity and accessibility .
Operational moves (next steps)
- US plans : simulate scenarios with 15% tariffs over 12 months; define absorption splits between supply chain and shelf; promotional contracts with anti-speculation clauses on pre-tax stocks.
- Mix & yields : for DOC/DOCG with price tension, evaluate a 10–20% yield cut and block excess spillovers on IGP where sustainable.
- Format portfolio : push premium 0.75L with perceived value; manage quality BIBs ; reduce unprofitable bottles/bricks.
- Market diversification : maintain US/Canada share; task force on Brazil/Vietnam ; B2B education projects in China (targeted roadshows, pairings with local Italian cuisine).
- Targeted Capex : Invest in cellar efficiency and commercial data analytics ; delay non-critical expenses.
- Supply chain agreement : collaboration with distribution and catering for sustainable markups and promotional scheduling; public-private co-branding campaigns.
TL;DR
Italy is #1 for 2025 production and high quality, but with full inventories and slower demand . US tariffs are compressing margins; large-scale retail trade is holding up in value, but volumes are declining ; Veneto is the export powerhouse. The key: protect margins with lower yields, a smart product mix, and targeted promotion in growing markets (USA, Canada, and Brazil), while the Chinese bet is rekindled with education projects.
The 2025 harvest promises to be one of the best in decades: an estimated 47.4 million hectoliters, 8% more than 2024.
Healthy grapes, excellent quality and peaks of excellence in many areas confirm Italy’s primacy in world production, ahead of France (37.4 million hl) and Spain (36.8 million hl).
The picture emerges from the joint survey by Assoenologi, Uiv, Ismea and Masaf , which returns a positive profile from a production point of view, but with important issues to be resolved on the consumption and market fronts.
A quality harvest, but a struggling market
Experts like Attilio Scienza emphasize the positive impact of the climate: the summer heat followed by August rains ensured optimal phenolic and aromatic ripening in almost all regions. Excellent signs were seen in Franciacorta, Oltrepò, Valpolicella, Prosecco, Friuli, and Marche; Tuscany saw a decline due to a deliberate decision to reduce yields.
But if production is smiling, high inventories, US duties, a wiped out Russian market, a drop in youth consumption and WHO campaigns are worrying.
Wine prices and value
“It’s absurd that a bottle of water costs €2.40 and a Chianti €3.60,” observes Riccardo Cotarella (Assoenologi) , calling for the urgent need to give greater value to the product . Lamberto Frescobaldi (UIV) also reiterates the need to reduce the quantities released on the market to preserve the value of Italian wine.
International markets: USA in crisis, Canada and Mexico on the rise
The US market is suffering severely: declining consumption, 15% tariffs, and new regulatory uncertainties. In response, Vinitaly is strengthening its presence with the wine2wine Business Forum (Chicago, October 5-6) and opening new routes to Canada, Mexico, and Central Asia . Opportunities are emerging from the Kazakhstan Roadshow , with over 475 operators involved and great interest in Italian wines.
Young people, sports and alcohol consumption
Surprising data comes from a study by the Liguria Local Health Authority (ASL3): young athletes consume 20-30% more alcohol than their sedentary peers. This phenomenon worsens with age, also linked to the presence of alcohol lobbyists in sports , and raises alarm about the future of responsible drinking.
Training and new wine professions
On the job market front, the Sant’Anna School of Advanced Studies in Pisa is launching the 11th edition of the Master’s Degree in Italian Wines and World Markets , a program of excellence that opens doors to roles in marketing, communications, export, and wine tourism. Approximately 70% of graduates find employment upon completion of their internship.
Final summary
In September 2025, Italian wine is experiencing a paradox: record-breaking quantity and quality, and struggling markets and consumption . The challenge will be to promote the product , contain yields, innovate communication for new generations, and find alternative international outlets . Italy remains the world leader, but the future will depend on the sector’s ability to transform this extraordinary harvest into a lasting competitive advantage.