Wine is changing: less quantity, more value, experiences and new markets.
The week of June 29 to July 3, 2026, confirms a now clear picture: the Italian wine sector is not simply experiencing a slowdown, but rather a profound transformation affecting consumption, markets, business models, and consumer behavior.
Challenges abound. Global consumption continues to slow, US tariffs keep uncertainty high, Italian wineries are recording higher inventories than last year, and price pressure continues to squeeze business margins. However, alongside these challenges, significant opportunities are emerging that could reshape the future of Italian wine.
Prosecco continues to drive exports
In the American market, which remains the main commercial outlet for Italian wine, Prosecco confirms its position as the most resilient denomination.
While overall wine consumption in the United States continues to decline, Italian sparkling wines are maintaining positive growth, allowing Italy to limit its losses to its main international competitors.
Prosecco is now perceived by American consumers as an accessible, recognizable product, suited to new consumption occasions. This is also confirmed by the Italian tourism market, where places like Jesolo are seeing a rise in Prosecco consumption, with particular interest also in Prosecco Rosé.
The United States is changing its face
The American market, however, is experiencing a much more profound change.
For the first time in the last twenty-five years, spirits have surpassed wine in the preferences of U.S. consumers.
At the same time, there is a growing belief, especially among young people, that even moderate wine consumption can have negative effects on health.
This evolution demonstrates that the future of wine will not depend solely on tariffs or the economy, but on the ability of companies to engage with new generations seeking products consistent with a lifestyle focused on well-being, moderation, and experience.
The tastes of Italian consumers are also changing
Summer 2026 confirms a clear evolution in preferences.
Consumers are increasingly rewarding:
native white wines;
pure single-varietal;
fresh and gastronomic wines;
productions strongly linked to the territory;
tasting and consumption experiences.
Wine is becoming less and less a simple product and more and more an experience to be lived, described, and shared.
Wineries have to manage the inventory problem
The sector is approaching the new harvest with approximately 49 million hectoliters still present in Italian cellars.
Such high availability risks putting further pressure on prices and companies’ profitability.
For this reason, there is a growing debate on the need for:
temporarily suspend new vineyard plantings;
better manage production yields;
use supply regulation tools;
strengthen commercial aggregations and joint promotion.
The goal is not to produce less indiscriminately, but to produce better and more in tune with real market demand.
Europe prepares the future of the sector
Great attention is also paid to the new Common Agricultural Policy and the implementation of the new European Wine Package.
The industry calls for maintaining resources dedicated exclusively to the wine sector, supporting international competitiveness, fostering innovation, promoting wine tourism, and providing businesses with more effective tools to address market crises.
The European comparison also confirms the need to develop differentiated strategies for the various territories, avoiding one-size-fits-all solutions for profoundly different production realities.
Innovation and new consumption models
Among the main opportunities, two directions emerge.
The first concerns the development of wines with a low natural alcohol content, obtained through agronomic practices directly in the vineyard and not through dealcoholization processes.
The second concerns the growth of wine tourism, today one of the main drivers of development in the sector.
Winery experiences, hospitality, catering, and direct customer relationships are becoming central to value creation and represent an important addition to traditional wine sales revenues.
Prices still under pressure
Despite the return of general inflation, wine prices continue to decline.
Companies are struggling to pass on increases in energy, logistics, and production costs to the market, resulting in a reduction in profitability.
This scenario makes it increasingly essential to invest in quality, differentiation, positioning, and added value, avoiding competition based exclusively on price.
The strategic vision
Italian wine is not entering an irreversible crisis.
It’s changing.
Consumers change, markets change, distribution models change, and product expectations change.
Companies that continue to compete solely on volume will face increasing difficulties.
On the contrary, those companies that can build value through identity, quality, innovation, internationalization, economic sustainability, and wine tourism will be the protagonists.
The real challenge of the coming years will not be to produce more wine, but to create more value around each bottle. This is where the competitiveness of Italian wine worldwide will depend.
The Italian wine sector is undergoing a phase of profound transformation.
This week’s data confirms a more complex market than in previous years, but also one rich in opportunities for companies that can adapt to new scenarios.
On the international front, some encouraging signs are emerging. Exports of Made in Italy products continue to represent one of the main strengths of the national economy, and the United States remains the most important strategic market. After ten months of contraction, April saw the first slight recovery in Italian wine exports to the US (1.6%), although the first quarterly balance remains negative. At the same time, overall Italian exports continue to grow, and institutional dialogue between Italy and the United States remains solid, a key element for preserving trade relations.
Wine confirms its central role in the Italian economy. In 2025, it generated a positive trade balance of approximately €7.2 billion, representing nearly 47% of the entire positive balance of the food and beverage sector. This confirms that wine continues to be one of the main ambassadors of Made in Italy around the world.
However, structural challenges remain. Bottling volumes are expected to decline both in 2025 and in the first five months of 2026. DOC, DOCG, and IGT denominations are recording an average decline in volumes of around 5%, which is still considered manageable but indicative of weaker international demand. Red wines and IGTs are suffering the most, while sparkling wines, white wines, and some stronger denominations are holding up better.
Another area requiring attention concerns cellar inventories. In Italy, there are nearly 50 million hectoliters of wine in stock just weeks before the 2026 harvest, a situation that increases the risk of overproduction and makes it increasingly necessary to carefully monitor supply through the protection consortia.
Valoritalia’s analyses also highlight an increasingly polarized supply chain: on the one hand, large denominations and groups capable of better addressing market challenges are growing, while on the other, small companies are more exposed to declining consumption and pressure on margins. Aggregation, cooperation between consortia, and improved production planning are therefore becoming strategic.
Among the most important developments of the week is the launch of the first IST Grape Fund in Trentino, a new instrument provided by the CAP to stabilize the income of wineries and protect them from market fluctuations and the effects of climate change. It could become a model for other Italian regions as well.
Sustainability remains one of the key competitive factors of the future. It is no longer considered merely an environmental value, but a tool capable of improving commercial positioning, facilitating access to international markets, strengthening wine tourism, and increasing consumer confidence. The importance of internationally recognized certifications is also growing.
Wine tourism continues to represent one of the most interesting drivers of growth. Winery visits now generate billions of euros in value, and over 60% of companies report an increase in direct sales thanks to hospitality activities. Millennials are the fastest-growing segment, and demand is increasingly shifting toward immersive experiences that integrate wine, local produce, food, and hospitality. For many companies, wine tourism is no longer an ancillary activity but a true business unit capable of improving margins, loyalty, and brand awareness.
Digital commerce also continues to grow. Wine e-commerce continues to be a strategic channel for internationalization, and new services are emerging to simplify direct sales within the European Union.
From a consumer perspective, changing preferences continue. Interest in white, sparkling, and rosé wines is growing, perceived as fresher, lighter, and more suited to new consumption styles. Younger consumers are demanding simpler, more direct, and less technical communication, prioritizing authenticity, experiences, and quality over traditional messaging.
Conclusion
Italian wine is not experiencing an identity crisis but rather a phase of structural evolution. Companies that invest in quality, sustainability, production control, digitalization, direct sales, internationalization, and wine tourism in the coming years will be the ones that consolidate their competitiveness. Critical issues related to consumption, inventory, and international markets remain, but the sector maintains solid economic fundamentals, a strong global reputation, and enormous growth potential based on the value of its territories, appellations, and Made in Italy.
This is not an irreversible structural crisis, but a profound transformation of the global market, of consumption, and of the ways in which wine is produced, distributed, and described.
Italian wine is going through one of the most delicate phases of recent years.
The week of May 25-29, 2026, clearly confirms that the sector is entering a new historical phase: more selective, more competitive, and much less predictable than in the past.
Exports: signs of improvement, but the situation remains fragile
The main focus continues to be exports.
Data for the first quarter of 2026 still show a negative situation for Italian wine in non-EU markets, although March showed a slight improvement compared to the first two months of the year.
According to the Italian Wine Union Observatory, non-EU exports of Italian wine closed the quarter at nearly €1 billion, down 11% in value compared to 2025, but improving on the 16% decline recorded in the initial two months.
The main problem remains the American market.
The United States, the world’s leading market for Italian wine, continues to slow down sharply:
Italian wine exports to the US: -20.5% in the first quarter of 2026
Italian sparkling wines in the US: -27% in value
total volumes in the US: -7.2%
Consumer prices increased by 4.3% despite discounts applied by Italian wineries to offset duties
The combined effect of:
American tariffs,
slowdown in consumption,
geopolitical tensions,
excess stock,
increasing logistics costs
is creating strong pressure on the entire supply chain.
However, some interesting signals also emerge.
Italian exports are not currently supported by historic markets, but by emerging and high-potential markets:
China
Brazil
Mexico
Russia
in fact, they show significant increases in demand.
At the same time, Prosecco continues to demonstrate greater resilience than other categories, especially in the premium segment and in the international HoReCa sector.
Italy remains the world leader in wine
Despite the market slowdown, Italy confirms its global manufacturing leadership.
According to the Mediobanca Research Area report:
Italian production 2025: 44.4 million hectoliters
global share: 19.7%
world’s leading exporter by volume
second largest exporter in the world by value after France
The sector continues to represent a strategic asset for Made in Italy, with a trade balance that increased from €2.7 billion in 2005 to €7.2 billion in 2025.
But behind these numbers, some very evident critical issues also emerge.
Turnover, margins and consumption are decreasing
2025 ended with:
turnover of top Italian players: -2.8%
EBITDA: -4.2%
net profit: -7.5%
exports: -3.4%
domestic market: -2.2%
Those who suffer the most are:
small and medium-sized companies,
the most capital intensive structures,
the middle range of the market.
Premium wine is holding up better, while the intermediate segment continues to lose strength.
Even traditional channels are showing difficulties:
Horeca slowing down,
wine shops in decline,
weak online,
wholesalers in contraction.
This confirms a trend that is now evident: the wine market is becoming more selective and less oriented towards large volumes.
Consumption is changing: less quantity, more experience
One of the most important changes concerns consumer behavior.
In recent years:
global wine consumption is decreasing,
attention to well-being is growing,
no-low alcohol increases,
the concept of “drink less but better” is strengthened.
This is also clearly seen in the aperitif phenomenon.
World Aperitivo Day 2026 confirms:
growth of premium aperitifs,
strong development of alcohol-free products,
increase in mixology,
search for lighter and more transversal convivial experiences.
Generation Z is approaching beverages in a completely different way than previous generations:
less traditional ritual,
more sociability,
more experience,
less historical fidelity to wine.
This forces the Italian wine sector to rethink its language, communication, and commercial approach.
Wine tourism: one of the true strategic levers of the future
In this scenario, one central theme emerges forcefully: wine tourism.
Today, Italian wine tourism is already worth over 3 billion euros and, according to many industry analyses, could exceed 5 billion in the coming years if the system is better structured.
The most interesting fact is that:
for many wineries, wine tourism already accounts for more than 20% of their turnover,
the most organised companies record significant increases in margins,
direct sales are growing,
increases customer loyalty.
The real Italian crux, however, remains the ability to create a system.
Many territories:
they communicate little together,
they do not integrate enough hospitality, wine and tourism,
they still have organizational shortcomings,
they are not fully structured on professional reception.
Yet Italy’s potential remains probably the strongest in the world:
unique wine biodiversity,
iconic territories,
gastronomic culture,
authenticity,
globally recognized landscapes.
Today, wine can no longer be just a bottle to sell.
It’s becoming more and more:
experience,
relation,
territory,
cultural identity.
And it is precisely here that many wineries will be able to build their economic future.
Luxury continues to spend
Also interesting is the signal coming from the Costa Smeralda, where wine continues to be seen as an element of status, luxury, and an exclusive experience.
Events like the Porto Cervo Wine & Food Festival show how the high-end segment remains very dynamic, especially in high-spending international tourism.
This confirms an increasingly evident dynamic:
the average market is suffering,
the premium one lasts better,
Super premium continues to grow in some contexts.
Final conclusions
Italian wine is not losing value.
The market is changing.
The model based primarily on volumes, traditional distribution and consolidated consumption today shows clear limitations.
The new phase of the sector requires:
greater selection,
production control,
strengthening of perceived value,
new communication languages,
more territorial identity,
greater integration between wine, tourism and hospitality.
The strongest companies in the coming years will likely be those capable of:
build a direct relationship with the consumer,
develop experiences,
invest in the brand,
to oversee wine tourism,
differentiate yourself on real quality,
work in a network with the local area.
Italy still has a huge competitive advantage: authenticity, history, biodiversity, and productive capacity.
But today it is no longer enough to produce excellent wine.
It needs to be told better.
We need to create experience.
We need to build value around the territory.
And it is precisely there that much of the future of Italian wine will be played out in the coming years.
The Italian wine sector continues to experience a complex phase, probably one of the most delicate in recent years.
The numbers confirm a market that is not in an irreversible structural crisis, but is undergoing a profound transformation made up of new consumption patterns, reduced volumes, pressure on margins, and changes in purchasing habits.
At the same time, new growth opportunities, new commercial geographies, and new consumption models are emerging that are reshaping the future of Italian and global wine.
According to the Mediobanca 2025 Report on leading Italian wineries, the slowdown in the sector is now evident even among large groups. Aggregate sales of the companies analyzed fell 2.8% compared to 2024, with exports weaker than the domestic market. Margins are particularly deteriorating: EBITDA -4.2%, net profit -7.5%, a sign of a cost structure that is increasingly difficult to sustain in a context of declining consumption and strong competitive pressure. The HoReCa sector, wine shops, wine bars, online sales, and the mid-market are particularly affected. Sparkling wines are holding up better, while organic wines are slowing, and no-low-alcohol wines remain marginal.
The international situation confirms the difficulties. OIV data show a very difficult global outlook for 2025: global wine trade will lose approximately €34 billion, global consumption will fall to its lowest levels since 1957, and international trade volumes will fall below 95 million hectoliters. The United States, France, and China are leading the global slowdown in consumption, while Europe continues to reduce vineyard areas and production to adapt to a less expansive market than in the past.
The main problem for Italian wine remains exports to the United States. In the twelve months following the introduction of US tariffs, the sector lost approximately €340 million, with volumes at their lowest levels in the last ten years. The first two months of 2026 still saw Italian exports decline by 13.3%, although February showed less negative signs than January. The US remains the primary market, but the pressure of tariffs, a weak dollar, and reduced consumption continues to weigh heavily on Italian companies.
Within this challenging scenario, however, some new strategic directions are beginning to emerge. Russia, China, and especially Brazil are showing significant signs of recovery. The emerging markets analyzed by Nomisma are projected to exceed €400 million in Italian wine imports in 2025, with growth of 4.3%. Countries such as Poland, Romania, Mexico, India, and the Czech Republic are becoming increasingly attractive areas for commercial diversification of Italian wine, especially for sparkling wines and bottled wines.
On the consumption front, the shift now appears structural. The dominant paradigm is becoming “less quantity, more quality.” Consumers aren’t stopping drinking wine, but they’re changing their approach: they’re drinking less often, choosing better, seeking experiences, authenticity, and greater consistency between price and perceived value. Consumption by the glass is growing, now chosen by 57% of global consumers according to Coravin, driven primarily by young people seeking variety, moderation, and discovery. This phenomenon is profoundly changing the work of restaurants, wine bars, and wine shops.
Pricing is also becoming a key issue in the restaurant industry. Distributors and HORECA operators are sounding the alarm over excessive wine list price increases. Today’s consumers compare prices, immediately perceive markups as overly aggressive, and tend to reduce out-of-home consumption when the quality-price ratio appears unbalanced. More and more restaurateurs are therefore considering more sustainable models, with lower markups and increased bottle rotation.
Meanwhile, production and marketing preferences are also changing. Liv-Ex data confirms impressive growth in the global fine wine market for white and sparkling wines: 650% for whites and 1,100% for sparkling wines since 2010, while reds remain essentially stagnant. This is an important signal because it reflects a real transformation in consumer tastes and international investor decisions.
Organic retail continues to grow in Italian distribution, with organic retail sales expected to reach €4.4 billion in 2025 (9.2%). However, organic wine has yet to fully capture this positive trend: organic wines and sparkling wines are stable in value (-0.1%) and declining in volume. This demonstrates that today’s consumers seek sustainability, but also demand accessibility, simplicity, and a clear perceived value.
At the same time, the importance of technological innovation is growing. Eatable Adventures’ Wine Tech Challenge highlights how the sector is increasingly investing in precision agriculture, artificial intelligence, water sustainability, distribution monitoring, dealcoholization, and commercial automation. Innovation is no longer an afterthought but a strategic competitive lever for reducing costs, improving sustainability, and adapting to new market scenarios.
Overall, the Italian wine industry is undergoing a momentous transformation. Global consumption is slowing, margins are compressing, and traditional markets are becoming more unstable. But at the same time, new opportunities are emerging related to alternative markets, experiential consumption, premiumization, technological innovation, sparkling wines, white wines, and the evolution of wine tourism.
The future of the sector does not seem to be oriented toward quantitative growth, but rather toward a more selective, managerial, and value-driven model. Those who can quickly adapt to changing consumer behavior, build direct relationships with the market, and offer authentic and sustainable experiences will have significant growth opportunities in the coming years.