From the economic situation to operational steps: what’s really happening and how to proceed now.
Trend of Italian and world wines.
Snapshot of the week
- US administrative stalemate : shutdown halts TTB on COLA and COLA Waivers → delays on labels and halts entry of samples for trade fairs/tastings. Real risk of export promotions being blocked in Italy’s top wine market.
- Growing tourist demand for family-run wineries : interest from international visitors is booming, led by US Gen Z ; authenticity and a personal welcome are the real drivers.
- Fine Wine is in a “reset” phase : after the 2020–2022 boom, markets are recovering and becoming more experience-oriented (drinking, not just investing). Italy 100 is more resilient than other regions.
- Vinitaly.USA (Chicago, October 5–6) : Strong participation from North American companies/consortia and buyers; practical focus on tariffs, trade, and Millennial/GenZ engagement.
- HNWI migration to the EU : 46% of the super-rich consider relocation and investments in vineyards/olive groves as “hybrid” assets (lifestyle value); Tuscany tops the list among non-urbanites.
- Italy–USA economic relationship : Italian wine generates ~$19 billion in impact on the US economy (out of a total of $144.4 billion), with a 38% share of foreign wines consumed.
- EU structural overproduction : 13% of consumption in 2024/25, in line with the 20-year average → pressure on inventories/prices.
- European consumption : 71% of consumers are cutting back on alcohol; 25% of 25-35 year-olds don’t buy at all. Low-/no-alcohol, functional, and non-alcoholic beverages are on the rise.
- Italy at a crossroads : US tariffs at 15% (devaluation), declining domestic consumption, and high inventories; structural measures and innovation (including AI ) are needed.
Key insights
1) US Shutdown: immediate impacts on exports and promotion
- COLA standard : manageable impact (long-term planning).
- COLA Waivers : high criticality → impossible to ship samples for fairs/masterclasses.
- Ripple effect on consortia and companies with promotional activities scheduled in the USA.
2) Wine tourism: the (global) choice goes to the family
- Winery visits: top experiences for the US/UK/DE; family-run wineries beat out brand-name ones.
- Gen Z USA : 82% want to visit; authenticity and hospitality = competitive advantage.
- Next step: digital, multichannel promotion, AI for visibility and CRM; the role of specialized wine tourism consultants (revenue, omnichannel sales) to scale without losing brand identity.
3) Fine Wine: From the Covid bubble to the return to the glass
- World production in 2024 at its lowest since 1961; consumption down to 214 mhl .
- Indices: Liv-ex 100 −4.9% YTD (Jun ’25); Fine Wine 50 −7.4% YTD; Burgundy 150 −30.2% in 2 years; Italy 100 −3.0% YTD but 12.2% at 5 years.
- New focus: ready-to-drink, mature wines , and attention to storage costs. The focus shifts back to provenance, authenticity, and drinkability .
4) Vinitaly.USA Chicago: strategic presence
- 250 exhibitors, a strong presence of consortia and top brands; >1,500 operators expected, with over 2,200 in the final estimates.
- Program: masterclass, talks, and wine2wine Business Forum ; focus on tariffs, North America, and wine tourism .
- Sentiment: Fewer tariff scares at meetings, greater openness of importers/distributors to sales programs and new projects.
5) Olive grove-vineyard capital: Europe attracts HNWIs
- Push for premium agricultural assets (organic/terroir, integrated experiences).
- Hot areas for Italy: Tuscany, Piedmont, Puglia (wine and oil).
- “Hybrid” returns: lifestyle income and asset appreciation.
6) Italy–USA: economic symbiosis
- Italian exports 2024: $2.2–2.3 billion ; US share ~ 24% of Italian wine export value.
- Every $1 spent on EU/IT wine → $4.5 in value in the US economy.
- 15% tariffs starting in August: pressure on prices and mix; economic diplomacy and channel strategies needed.
7) EU supply and falling demand: the structural issue
- EU self-sufficiency 113.6% : chronic surplus → inventories and cash flow under stress.
- In Europe, alcoholic beverages −1.8% vs. non-alcoholic beverages 5.1%; no/low-fat and functional beverages ~60% of the beverage category.
8) Italy: critical issues and levers of sectoral policy
- 30,000 processing companies, 250,000 agricultural companies; €16 billion turnover; world’s leading producer.
- Operational proposals (safeguard package):
- Revision of the Consolidated Law : yields per hectare, alignment of yields with five-year data, management of surpluses, simplification of controls, labelling (ingredients & nutritional information).
- Planting/replanting permits : suspension of fines for unused permits (pre-Jan 2025); validity extended to 8 years .
- Anti-tariff measures : temporary compensation for sub-marginal profits; proposed reduced VAT on wine served with meals in restaurants to stimulate domestic demand.
- Finance & Operations : Business unit lease; joint venture/newco for technologies and new markets (e.g., dealcoholized products); revolving lien on inventory for liquidity.
- End-to-end Artificial Intelligence : vineyard (targeted dosages), winery (fermentations/blends), marketing (segmentation/CRM), sales (dynamic pricing), supply (demand forecasting).
What to do now (essential playbook for wineries and consortia)
- Mitigating the US Shutdown
- Reschedule your export promotion calendar: move activities requiring COLA Waivers to alternative markets in the next 6–8 weeks.
- Prepare a documentation pipeline ready for TTB reopening; maintain standard COLAs in progress (even if not reviewed).
- Activate B2B digital tastings , domestic shipments via importers with stock already cleared through customs.
- Portfolio repositioning
- Increase the white/sparkling/rosé mix (GenZ hookup & multi-cuisine pairing).
- For reds, focus on ready- to-drink vintages ; storytelling on origin and sustainability .
- Introduce a no/low test line on 1–2 SKUs in selective large-scale retail or DTC.
- Wine tourism as a marginal channel
- Family-Hosted format with digital booking, dynamic ticketing, and add-ons (vertical, food pairing, olive grove tour).
- CRM with lead magnets (photo tours, home recipes, playlists) and automations (welcome → cross-sell → wine club subscription).
- North American exports, beyond tariffs
- Net Pricing : Protect top placements with value-adds (bundles, library releases, magnums).
- Channels : Strengthens specialized e-retail, clubs, and premium Italian restaurants; serves as a buffer in Canada and Mexico .
- Finance and liquidity
- Activates a revolving lien on slow-moving inventory; evaluates a joint venture for third-party dealcoholization/bottling plants.
- Review delivery/yield contracts to align production with actual demand.
- AI & Operational Data
- Vineyard: sensors/vision algorithms for targeted treatments (less input, higher quality).
- Winery: Predictive fermentation models; blends assisted by a human validation panel.
- Go-to-market: elastic pricing by market/segment; look-alike campaigns targeting GenZ/Millennial audiences.
Conclusion
2025 marks an active selection process : less dispersion, more focus on high-margin markets/channels and authentic experiences. Amid tariffs, shutdowns, and shifting demand , the winners are wineries capable of three key moves: diversifying , rethinking their portfolio (including low/no), and monetizing wine tourism with digital and AI. Italian wine leadership begins here: consistent quality, authentic storytelling, and financial discipline. The rest is just background noise.
The sector is in a “reorganization phase”: weak global demand for reds, US tariffs slowing purchases in Q2, inventories still high, but signs of stability in some markets (Canada, Germany, Japan, Brazil) and volume leadership confirmed in the USA.
Prosecco is the undisputed star. Domestically, consumer confidence is slightly up; more inclusive pricing policies are needed in the Ho.Re.Ca. channel to attract Gen Z and new wine consumers.
Wine Trends in Italy Week 29 September – 3 October 2025
Executive summary
Strategic priorities: export diversification, selective premium repositioning, inventory management, anti-counterfeiting traceability, and a push for data-driven “family” wine tourism.
Exports first semester 2025 (source Nomisma: monitored markets)
- USA : leading market but pre-tariff “pre-stocking” halted → from 22% (Jan–Mar) to -7% (Apr–Jun) . Italy: 2.5% in the first half thanks to Q1. Court of Appeals decision on legitimacy of tariffs pending.
- Canada : 11% imports from Italy; strong substitution of US wines on the shelves ( –65% ).
- Germany : 10.3% in value (still and sparkling goods: 14.2% ).
- Japan and Brazil : positive performances.
- United Kingdom : –7% in value ; sparkling wines –6.6% , still/sparkling wines –8.1% .
- Others in decline : Switzerland, South Korea, Norway, China ( -10.5% for still/sparkling wines).
- Italian sparkling wines (12 markets): growth slowed to 1% value / 6% vol ; dynamic Japan, USA, China . Weak UK, France, Australia .
Production, inventory and structure
- Supply chain: 30,000 processing companies (1,800 industrial), 250,000 agricultural; turnover €16 billion (excluding related industries), 2024 exports €8.1 billion , 74,000 employees.
- Italy: world’s leading producer (average 47 million hl ), leading exporter by volume ( >22 million hl ).
- Production volatility: peak 55 million hl (2018) ; minimum 38 million hl (2023) ; 2024 rising but below average; 2025 UIV estimate: 47.4 million hl ( 8% on 2024).
- Inventories : 2023 > production; July 2024: 40 million hl (–20% y/y with production –23%); 30 June 2025: 43.6 million hl (0.3% y/y; –6.4% on May), 2.7 million hl must and 63,926 hl new wine .
- Areas : Italy 728k ha (0.8%) ; national structural decline –15% (2000–2023) . EU27 3.2 million ha ; Spain 930k ha (–15%) , France 783k ha (–0.7%) ; China 753k ha (–0.4%) ; India growing 185k ha , CAGR 4.5% (from 2019) .
Prices, US tariffs and their impact
- Average export price (still in bottles): Italy €4.43/l , below France €7.81 , Australia €5.56 , New Zealand €5.86 .
- USA : worth ~ €2 billion (24% of Italy’s export value). Average tariff 2.9% until Jan 2025 → 15% from Apr 2025 .
- Estimated UIV impact : €317 million (up to €460 million with a weaker USD). Final markup from origination: estimated from 123% to 186% .
- Apr 2025 : Italy → USA –7.5% vol / –9.2% val . Jun 2025 : Italy €169.8 m (–4.2% m/m vs Jun ’24) ; France €191.3 million (5.9%) .
- Volume leadership confirmed: June 2025 Italy ~33 million liters (3.5%) = 32.6% of US imports; H1 2025 Italy 188.9 million liters (7.5%) > France (20.1% vol).
Focus Prosecco (UIV–Vinitaly / IWSR / SipSource)
- In the USA it is worth 31% of the value of Italian wine consumption ( $531 million in 2024 ).
- Awareness 40% (vs Champagne 52% ), but conversion to purchase 31% (Champagne 24% ).
- Sparkling wine share in the US (first 7 months of 2025): Prosecco 30% , Champagne 28% .
- Drivers: average price < $18 , strong penetration among women and Gen Z , use in mixology/RTD .
- Challenge: Growth in multi-ethnic communities (competitor: cocktails, hard seltzer, RTD).
Domestic demand and confidence (ISTAT, September 2025)
- Consumers : index from 96.2 → 96.8 ; economic climate 97.0 → 98.8 ; current 99.2 → 99.9 ; future 92.2 → 92.6 ; personal ≈96.0 .
- Businesses : 93.6 → 93.7 (stable); construction 101.3 → 101.5 , services 95.1 → 95.6 ; manufacturing stable 87.3 ; retail 102.7 → 101.6 .
- Wine implications: propensity for durable goods purchases slightly improved, but retail suffers; need to push by-the-glass , experiences, and entry-level pricing.
Ho.Re.Ca channel and distribution (Partesa interview)
- Excessive markups on entry-level labels are driving young people away.
- Virtuous model: wine by the glass with pouring technology, minimum quantities and continuity of supply, expansion of Italian labels.
- In 2025 price lists: avoid both drastic increases and decreases; focus on fresh whites and “pure” appellations with high quality/price ratios (Verdicchio, Garganega, Sangiovese, Chianti, Morellino).
Wine tourism and territorial branding
- International attraction for family-run wineries is growing: intention to visit on next trips → USA 78% , UK 74% , Germany 61% .
- Preference for family-run businesses : USA 68% , UK 57% , DE 49% ; very strong interest from Gen Z USA (82%) .
- Priorities: digital communication , multichannel promotion , AI to design experiences and manage flows. Key role: specialized consultant for omnichannel positioning and sales.
Policy, risks and operational proposals
- Safeguard Package (Eurispes): revision of Consolidated Law 238/2016 , yields/specifications/controls more in line with demand; labeling with ingredients and nutrition information ; simplification of inspections.
- Multi-level anti-counterfeiting : serial QR , RFID , NFC anti-tamper ; testing of new fiscal stamps started from 28 July 2025 .
- End-to-end AI : precision viticulture, winery (controlled fermentations, blends), marketing and CX.
- Plant authorizations : 1-year suspension of fines for non-use before January 2025; extension of replanting period to 8 years .
- Insurance/guarantees : evaluate an export coverage scheme similar to Cap Francexport; yield mutualization fund to stabilize prices (avoid sell-offs, dispose of surpluses, including through juice/distillation).
- US Tariffs : USWTA mobilizes industry with survey for economic evidence; leverage for negotiating pressure.
- Uprooting : German pan-European plan proposed (based on the 2009–2011 model); Italy more cautious → preference for reconversions and active vineyard management.
Opportunity to be seized immediately
- Rebalance export portfolio : boost Canada, Germany, Japan, and Brazil ; monitor the UK and China with targeted plans.
- Selective premium : communicating value (territory, sustainability, winemaking precision) to close the €-/l gap with the French.
- Prosecco : defend US share (mixology, RTD, non-Caucasian communities, West & East North Central).
- Family-friendly wine tourism : packages bookable online, transparent pricing, CRM and AI-driven UGC content.
- Ho.Re.Ca : inclusive price lists, by-the-glass , menus under €20–25 for quality entry-level options.
- Supply/Inventories : harvest-sales plans, cuvée segmentation, alternative channels for surpluses.
- Trust & Anti-Fake : Progressive rollout of QR-RFID-NFC new tags; storytelling on product security.
Final route note
2025 is the year for “active selection”: less product dispersion, more focus on markets and channels that boost margins and reputation, with Prosecco as the battering ram, wine tourism as the catalyst, and the digital/AI supply chain as the neural network. This is where the competitive advantage for the next 24 months will be built.
The Italian wine market continues to experience challenging times, with tariffs, falling prices, and new cultural and commercial challenges.
US exports: mixed signals
In the United States, Italy’s leading trading partner, July 2025 saw a significant decline in value of 21.1%. In the first seven months of the year, the overall figure was down 1.1% (€1.2 billion), although volumes grew (6.1%). The average price per liter fell to €5.48 (-6.8%), further compressing margins.
Sparkling wines are holding up better: up 4.3% in value (€357.3 million) and 14% in volume, but with prices falling to €4.63/liter (-8.5%). Bottled wines are struggling (-2.7% in value, but down 4.3% in volume), while bulk wines are plummeting (-39.5%).
France in the lead
In July, France surpassed Italy in exports to the US: €185.2 million versus €148.2 million. In the first seven months of 2025, French exports grew by 16.8% (€1.4 billion), with an average price nearly double that of Italy (€11.97/liter). Sparkling and bottled wines drove the performance, confirming their greater ability to hold up prices.
The cultural front: the appeal to the UN
The International Wine Academy has launched an appeal to world leaders to defend wine as a cultural, social, and human heritage, against the risk of it being reduced to a mere health threat. Among the signatories are prominent Italian winemakers such as Gaja, Zanella, Cinelli Colombini, and Lageder. The Academy emphasizes the value of moderate consumption, supported by recent scientific studies, and the need to preserve wine’s cultural identity.
New consumers in the US
The future of Italian wine also depends on renewing its target audience. UIV-Vinitaly and IWSR analyses indicate that the next American “wine lovers” will be primarily young people (Gen Z and Millennials), with a strong presence of Hispanic, African-American, and Asian consumers. States like Texas, California, Illinois, and Georgia thus become key markets for tapping into these new, high-potential communities.
Consortium strategies and the impact of tariffs
The sector is preparing for Vinitaly.USA (Chicago, October 5-6), a strategic event to gauge market reaction and defend Italy’s role in the United States. Consortia are facing a generous and high-quality harvest, but US tariffs—which rose to 15% on August 7—risk costing Italian companies up to €460 million. According to the UIV Wine Observatory, in the first three months of application, the duties have already generated an additional cost of $61 million and a 13.5% drop in import prices.
In short: Italian wine remains a leading player in the United States, but 2025 marks a crossroads: on the one hand, the challenge of prices and tariffs, on the other, the urgency of conquering new consumers and defending the cultural dimension of wine globally.
On the supply side, the 2025 harvest is estimated at 47–47.4 million hl with good/excellent quality and high cellar stocks (~37 million hl): a “precarious equilibrium” scenario in which protecting profitability is more important than maximizing volumes.
Global demand slowing, US tariffs at 15% compressing margins, Italian large-scale retail trade holding up in value but losing in volume.
Key points of the week
- Cavit (Trentino) : Message to suppliers — possible reductions in remuneration due to pressure on costs and profitability; declining international demand, US tariffs = ~$1 per shelf on wines priced at $14–$15. First half of 2025: -6–10% in various markets; sparkling wines 7.6% . Strategy: pass 10% on to consumers, 5% absorbed by the supply chain.
- Italian exports H1 2025 (Istat) : -0.4% value , -3.1% volume (~1 billion l). USA and Canada growing ; declines in Germany, UK, Russia, Asia (China, Japan) . Sparkling wines : value -0.4% (€1 billion), volume 0.1% (254.1 million l).
- Tre Bicchieri/Gambero Rosso : H1 2025 -0.48% value (€3.86 billion) ; volumes -3.2% . Prosecco Dop : volumes 3.9%, value 1.3% (€836 million) but lower mix ; Asti declines (quantity -16%, value -12%) in Russia. Bottles <2 l: values stable, volumes -3%.
- Large-scale retail trade in Italy (Circana) : last 12 months -0.7% value (€1.88 billion) , -2.5% volume (427.8 million litres) . Formats: 0.75 litre -0.9% (but 80% of the value, €1.4%), large bottles -7.7% , bricks -5.4% , bag-in-box 2.5% .
- US tariffs and prices : companies absorb the impact ; average price -13.5% in July (from $6.52 to $5.64/l). Tariff costs for Italy: $61 million in three months , just below France ($62.5 million).
- Regional export geography (H1 2025): Veneto leader €1.4 billion (1.5%, 37.1% of the total). Tuscany follows with €588 million (~-1%) , Piedmont with €553 million (-2.2%) . Lombardy (9.1%) , Friuli Venezia Giulia (15.2%) , Puglia (5.7%) , and Sicily (4.8%) are growing.
- China : Italy at €33.6 million (-21.7%) ; overall Chinese imports to restart in 2024, but sentiment with Italian wine remains weak ; the spotlight is on the Vinitaly China Roadshow .
- 2025 production : Italy expected to be #1 in the world (~ 47–47.4 million hl , 8% over 2024). Driven by the South (19%) ; Central Italy -3% (Tuscany -13%). Good/excellent quality, but risk of price pressure from high inventories.
- Climate & Policy : Supply chain divided over uprooting , yield reduction , plant permit management, and supply chain agreement (hypothesis of lower Ho.Re.Ca. markups versus rising restaurant costs). Convergence on extraordinary promotions (primarily in the USA) and on quality as a defensive lever.
Main markets (H1 2025)
- USA : €988 million (5.2%) , L179–180 million (1.1%) ; ongoing tariff impact, signs of slowdown in Q2 (Apr-Jun -1/-2%).
- Germany : €573 million (-1.8%) , 234.5 million l (-7.4%) .
- UK : €370 million (-4.5%) , €118 million (-2.1%) .
- Canada : €198 million (12.8%) , 34.9 million l (6.6%) .
- Switzerland : €195 million (0.4%) .
- France : €158 million (1.8/1.9%) .
- Russia : €75.6 million (-37.5%) , volumes halved; Prosecco -30% .
- Japan : €87–88 million (-7.4/7.5%) .
- China : €33.6 million (-21/22%) .
- Brazil : €18.6 million (5.5%) ; under special observation.
- Vietnam : €6.1 million (16%) .
Strategic reading (for wineries, consortia, investors)
- Profitability under pressure : tariffs, mix-downs, cost inflation and more moderate consumption are pushing us to reduce yields , reposition price lists and tighten promotional controls (avoiding “blind” discounts that erode brands).
- Portfolio shift : sparkling wines still resilient , but no longer the automatic locomotive; fresh whites and fast-moving denominations perform better than structured reds in large-scale retail outlets.
- Channels : Large-scale retail trade maintains value; bag-in-box growth: opportunities for “quality BIB” lines. On-trade must be revitalized with targeted policies and staff training.
- Geographies : The USA remains core but requires surgical pricing and anti-tariff plans (hedging, long-term contracts, co-promotions with distributors). Canada and Brazil are developing; Russia and China must be managed with selective tactics and B2B/B2C education projects. Northern EU is cooling: work on value/service .
- Supply : abundant harvest, high stocks ⇒ manage volumes (scheduled bulk sales, technical distillations where available, deferred bottling, selective private label only if it protects margins).
- Communication : telling the story of origin, sustainability, and conscious moderation ; less “extravagance,” more authenticity and accessibility .
Operational moves (next steps)
- US plans : simulate scenarios with 15% tariffs over 12 months; define absorption splits between supply chain and shelf; promotional contracts with anti-speculation clauses on pre-tax stocks.
- Mix & yields : for DOC/DOCG with price tension, evaluate a 10–20% yield cut and block excess spillovers on IGP where sustainable.
- Format portfolio : push premium 0.75L with perceived value; manage quality BIBs ; reduce unprofitable bottles/bricks.
- Market diversification : maintain US/Canada share; task force on Brazil/Vietnam ; B2B education projects in China (targeted roadshows, pairings with local Italian cuisine).
- Targeted Capex : Invest in cellar efficiency and commercial data analytics ; delay non-critical expenses.
- Supply chain agreement : collaboration with distribution and catering for sustainable markups and promotional scheduling; public-private co-branding campaigns.
TL;DR
Italy is #1 for 2025 production and high quality, but with full inventories and slower demand . US tariffs are compressing margins; large-scale retail trade is holding up in value, but volumes are declining ; Veneto is the export powerhouse. The key: protect margins with lower yields, a smart product mix, and targeted promotion in growing markets (USA, Canada, and Brazil), while the Chinese bet is rekindled with education projects.