The Italian wine world enters winter 2025 with a complex picture, one of light and shade, featuring divergent market dynamics, international tensions, and signs of industrial resilience.
The sector is undergoing a profound transformation: consumption is changing, export geographies are reconfiguring, Prosecco continues to drive growth, while companies seek new balances between production, cost management, and strategic repositioning.
The global bubble race: Prosecco remains the driving force of Italian wine.
Del Rey Analysts’ snapshot confirms that sparkling wines remain the most dynamic axis on the global scene, with a turnover of 8.5 billion euros , despite a physiological slowdown in volumes.
Italy dominates in terms of quantity: 519 million liters exported , equal to almost half the world’s volume, and a value of €2.4 billion . The epicenter is Prosecco, which has seen exports grow 276% over the last 16 years, surpassing Champagne and Cava in growth dynamics, thanks to three key elements: taste, image, and distribution capacity.
On the price front, Italy has shown a 64% increase since 2009, higher than France and Spain, although it remains far from the value per litre of Champagne.
This week confirms one fact: Prosecco’s strength comes not from its price, nor from a technological advantage, but from its ability to interpret the desires of the contemporary consumer. It’s a global case study.
Luxury wine and spirits: a contraction in 2025, with few exceptions
The high-end segment is going through a delicate phase.
According to the Altagamma Observatory, luxury wines and spirits are expected to decline by 5% in 2025, penalized by more selective consumption, high prices, a slow pace of growth in the Chinese market, and a lower propensity to spend among those under 40.
Under pressure:
- premium spirits (-4/-6%)
- Cognac in decline
- high-end still wines
Going against the trend:
- French bubbles , driven by hedonistic consumption
- Italian reds , which resist thanks to the strength of their identity and origin
- rosé , increasingly in demand in international fine dining
A timid recovery is expected in 2026 (5%), but it remains a market phase where perceived value, experience and authenticity weigh more than the brand alone.
Italian exports amid global tensions and new growth paths
The Federvini Observatory confirms a phase of “realignment” of global flows, with Italian wine which, although slowing down, is holding up better than its French and Chilean competitors .
The US picture is the most critical part:
- wine: –4.8%
- spirits: –5%
- last quarter: –23% , combined effect of tariffs and drop in purchasing power
To compensate, new trajectories arrive:
- Germany 8.8%
- Brazil 8.7%
- Italian spirits boom in China : 94%
The sector is moving from “habitual” consumption to “choice” consumption: less frequent, more perceived value.
Domestic consumption: few certainties but signs of liveliness
In Italy, demand remains cautious, but the search for quality is growing.
The large-scale retail trade records:
- DOP IGP wine: 0.9%
- Total PDO and PGI products: 1.1%
The towing are:
- bubbles
- alcoholic aperitifs
- premium vinegars
No-low and ready-to-drink products continue to expand their reach, especially in urban consumption and among Gen Z and Millennials.
Bulk wine: a surprising segment
The World Bulk Wine Exhibition highlights an unexpected phenomenon:
Loose holds up better than bottled.
Exports fell by only 0.3% in value , while bottled wine recorded a 3.1% decline. Varietals and no/low-alcohol products are growing, driven by technological innovation in dealcoholization and the demand for flexible formats (cans, bag-in-box, RTD).
The bulk wine sector accounts for over a third of global volumes and will become increasingly strategic in the coming years.
Italy: High inventory levels and Prosecco tops the list
As of October 31st, Italian wineries recorded:
- 73 million hectoliters of total wine products
- 44.5 million wine
- 14.3 million musts
Inventories are growing (5.2% over 2024), a signal to monitor in a slow market context.
The most stocked wine in Italy is Prosecco Dop with 4.2 million hl .
Veneto dominates, followed by Emilia Romagna, Tuscany and Puglia.
Wine Companies in the “Perfect Storm”: Who’s Resisting and Why?
The Management DiVino study photographs a sector affected by structural criticalities:
- drop in consumption
- demographic changes
- fragmentation
- cost pressures
Resilience emerges from those who:
- innovate in the business model
- aggregates skills
- invests in wine tourism
- diversify products and markets
The “asset strong / asset light” dualism is no longer a dogma.
Hybrid models, capable of commercial flexibility and territorial roots, are winning.
Sparkling wines sold in 2024 surpass 1 billion bottles
Despite a difficult 2023 harvest, Italy surpassed a historic milestone. Prosecco DOC (8%), Asolo (20%), Pignoletto, and Lambrusco rosé all grew. Piedmont, Lombardy, and Trentino suffered.
The country remains a “Charmat republic”: 96% of the sparkling wines are produced in autoclaves.
DOP Economy: A Pillar of Italian Competitiveness
The ISMEA-QUALITY 2025 Report certifies a healthy sector:
- 20.7 billion production value
- DOP/IGP wine stable at 11 billion
- export: 7.19 billion (5.2%)
The Northeast remains the driving force, with Veneto, Emilia-Romagna, and Friuli experiencing strong growth.
Tariffs, the US crisis and the need for extraordinary measures
UIV calls for urgent intervention:
Between July and September, the average price of Italian wine destined for the USA dropped by 15.5% , an unsustainable self-taxation.
The Government is allocating €100 million annually from 2026 to 2028 to promote and internationalize its business.
The US case: an empire in difficulty
Napa and Sonoma are experiencing their toughest crisis since Prohibition:
- consumption down
- young people far from wine
- 30% of the grapes not sold
- Canada lost due to tariffs
A global warning about the end of the expansion cycle of traditional premium wine.
Conclusion: a sector that is changing its skin
The week of December 1–5, 2025 shows an Italy of wine going through a historic transition:
lower volumes, more competition, unstable markets, new languages of consumption.
But also a supply chain that doesn’t retreat: it innovates, resists, adapts, and finds new ways to create value.
The future will not only be written in the vineyards, but in strategic choices: innovation, positioning, aggregation, global market presence, and the ability to interpret a demand that changes faster than supply.
A continuous movement, like a grape harvest that never stops.
Between global leadership, slowing consumption and the need to “work as a system”.
1. A sector still central to Made in Italy
In the week of November 17-21, 2025, the picture emerging from industry meetings, data from Nomisma, ICQRF, OIV, UIV, Confcooperative, and the 2024 financial statements reports is clear:
- Wine remains one of the strategic assets of Made in Italy :
- 30,000 processing companies
- 240,000 agricultural companies
- 74,000 employed
- 16 billion euros in turnover , equal to 9% of the national food and beverage sector
- Exports 2024 at 8.1 billion euros , 14% of agri-food exports:
- Italy is the world’s leading exporter by volume
- 2nd in value , behind France
- From 2014 to 2024, exports went from less than 5 billion to 8.1: a doubling in ten years , despite crises, wars, inflation and the “health wave”.
In 2025, however, the wind has become more complex: in the first 7 months of the year, exports fell by 0.9% , in a context marked by new US duties (15%) , an unfavourable euro/dollar exchange rate and slowing consumption in all the main producing countries.
2. Markets and tariffs: stronger than ever, but more vulnerable
The picture on the markets is twofold: structural strength and cyclical vulnerability.
- United States
- First market for Italian wine: almost 2 billion euros in 2024 (10.2%)
- From 2025 burdened by 15% duties on imports from the EU:
- Actual effects postponed to 2026 price lists , because companies have brought forward shipments to build up stocks
- Risk that the competitive advantage goes to local American producers
- Diversification in progress :
- Canada (15.3%) , Russia (40%) , South America, Eastern Europe, Asia are growing
- Wine e-commerce is estimated to be worth $6.7 billion globally in 2025.
- Geopolitics and global tariffs :
- United States, Canada, China: strong volatility, with a collapse in exports for American producers and indirect impacts for Italy
- The EU is working on a “Wine Package” and new agreements (Mercosur, India, Asia), with more funds for promotion (up to 80% co-financed)
The underlying message: the US market is irreplaceable, but no longer sufficient. 2026 will be a “year of review” for reorientation strategies.
3. Consumption: less wine, more quality, more bubbles
On the internal front the signs are structural:
- Total consumption in long-term decline
- From 1995 to today: -30% , to approximately 23 million hectolitres
- Production, however, remains around 46–47 million hectolitres : half of the wine produced goes abroad.
- Change the mix:
- Sparkling wines account for 15.2% of consumption (almost doubled since 2010)
- Whites remain at 39.6% (stable)
- Rossi drops to 37.3% (from 43.9% in 2010)
- The consumer changes:
- Fewer “everyday consumers” (from 55% in 2008 to 40% in 2023)
- More attention to quality, sustainability, moderation, freshness, lower alcohol content
- No/low alcohol segment expected to grow strongly (20% expected by 2029)
In short: Italians drink less, but better , and this pushes companies towards higher positioning, but also towards new products.
4. Cellar stock: more still wine, more pressure on prices
The ICQRF report as of October 31, 2025, shows a system heavily loaded with products:
- 44.5 million hectoliters of wine in stock
- 14.3 million hectoliters of must
- 14.3 million hectoliters of VNAIF (new wine still fermenting)
- Compared to October 31, 2024:
- Wine: 5.2%
- Musts: 6.9%
- VNAIF: 6.2%
- 62.1% of the wine is from the North , primarily Veneto
- Inventory structure:
- 55.7% DOP
- 25.3% PGI
- 1.5% varietals
- 17.6% other wines
- Very high concentration : 20 denominations out of 526 make up 58.9% of the GI stocks
This backlog of inventories, while consumption slows, is one of the strongest pressures on prices and margins, especially for smaller companies.
5. 2024 Financial Statements: Turnover Grows, But Almost Half of Companies Lose Margins
The report by Studio Impresa – Management DiVino and Corriere Vinicolo (877 companies, revenues >1 million) offers a very clear economic x-ray:
- Average result 2024
- Revenues: 2% on 2023 (0.7% net of inflation)
- Average EBITDA at 10.5% (7.4%)
- But 415 out of 877 companies are losing profitability : the sector is growing, but not “for everyone”.
The key factor is the size of the company :
- Big >50 million euros
- Only 6.27% of the sample
- They generate more than half of the 13.4 billion in revenues analyzed
- Revenues in the three-year period 2022–2024: 8.4%
- EBITDA growing (4.9%)
- 20–50 million
- Revenues: 4.5% in the three-year period
- EBITDA: substantially stable (-1.2%)
- 10–20 million
- Revenues: -9.9% in the three-year period
- EBITDA: 9.1% (those who were able to react restructured)
- Under 10 million
- 71% of the sample, but only 17% of the sector’s revenues
- EBITDA in sharp decline:
- <5 million: -16.4%
- 5–10 million: -6.4%
Clear message: “Small is beautiful” can no longer withstand global competition . We need larger scale, managerial skills, efficiency, and aggregations .
At the regional level:
- Veneto : first region for revenue volumes ( 4.35% in 2023 ), but only 13th for profitability (EBITDA 8.72%)
- Tuscany, Lombardy, and Piedmont lead the generation of value:
- Franciacorta (Brescia) EBITDA at 21.68%
- Bolgheri (Livorno) even at 53.75%
6. Brand positioning, high-end and wine tourism
Despite the tensions, the “Italian wine” brand is holding up very well:
- Top of the range
- The “Italy 100” index remains slightly positive (0.6%)
- Italy wins 138 medals and six “Best in Show” awards at the Decanter Awards.
- 20 Italian wines enter the Wine Spectator 2025 Top 100 , with a strong presence from Tuscany (10 labels), Chianti Classico at the forefront and Barbaresco/Barolo consolidating the Piedmontese prestige
- Champagne in Italy
- Imports 1st half 2025: -10.5% in value , -10.3% in volume
- Main reason: lower spending power and lower economic confidence among consumers
- Potential space for Italian classic method and national sparkling wines with a better quality/price ratio
- Wine tourism
- 3 billion euros of expenditure
- Over 15 million visitors (11%)
- Very strong propensity to purchase directly from the cellar
- Emerging areas are also growing (e.g. Badesi in Sardinia: 18% )
- The winery experience is becoming increasingly immersive and digital , increasing the value of the brand-territory
7. Productive structure: wealth, fragmentation, dependencies
From a structural point of view:
- Extremely high biodiversity
- The top 10 grape varieties represent only 38% of the total , compared to 80% in Australia and 71% in France.
- 409 DOP and 118 IGP products: a wealth of identity, but complex communication and marketing.
- Entrepreneurial fragmentation
- 124,000 agricultural companies in the supply chain
- The top 100 companies cover between 46 and 55% of the turnover
- Prosecco Addiction
- Prosecco represents approximately a quarter of Italian bottled exports
- Competitive advantage today, but also risk of concentration tomorrow
8. Major cross-cutting trends: climate, AI, regulation, young people
The structural challenges facing the sector:
- Climate change
- It impacts yields, harvest calendar, production geographies
- It pushes towards new altitudes and territories, new styles (fresher, less alcoholic)
- Increased disease and pest pressure; calls for investment in R&D and new molecules
- Technological Innovation and Artificial Intelligence
- Digital tools for:
- vineyard management (drones, sensors, precision agriculture)
- logistics efficiency and lightweight packaging
- CRM, marketing and direct-to-consumer channels
- Digital tools for:
- European regulation and CAP
- “Wine Package” in preparation, with more flexibility to rebalance production/market
- Debate on uprooting vs. plant blocking
- Risk of cuts to the CAP post-2027 and a “Single Fund” that renationalizes choices
- Fiction about wine and health
- Risk of demonization at international level
- Push for campaigns on conscious consumption , on the cultural and territorial role of wine
- Young consumers
- Generation Z less tied to traditional consumption
- They require authenticity, transparency, sustainability, less “courtly” languages and closer to their cultural codes
9. Strategic indications emerged during the week
From the various tables (Leonardo Committee, UIV, Confcooperative, Nomisma, institutions) some lines of direction converge:
- Making a system
- Coordinate companies, consortia, cooperatives, institutions, ICE, SACE, SIMEST, and trade fairs (Vinitaly).
- Using embassies and Italian restaurant networks around the world as brand multipliers
- Strengthen the structure of companies
- Support aggregations, business networks, mergers and partnerships
- Bringing managerial skills and data analysis to SMEs
- Moving from “small is beautiful” to “small but connected, structured and integrated”
- Manage stock, value and product range
- Manage inventories, avoiding price wars
- Push for premiumization, DOP, experiences, wine tourism
- Diversify beyond Prosecco, promoting classic method, local whites, distinctive reds, credible no/low alcohol wines
- Defending and relaunching the internal market
- Less elitist, clearer communication, consistent with contemporary lifestyles
- Educate towards moderate but qualified consumption
- Bringing young people closer together with new languages, formats and consumption opportunities
- Supporting exports and emerging markets
- Don’t give up on the USA, but open up South America, India, Southeast Asia, Eastern Europe
- Making the most of the new EU co-financed promotion programmes
10. Final summary: a giant in transformation
Italian wine, in this week at the end of November 2025, presents itself as a giant in transition :
- Stronger than ever in terms of reputation, biodiversity, market presence, and ability to create value in districts of excellence.
- More exposed than ever to external shocks: tariffs, climate, currency dynamics, changing consumption, European policies.
- More selective than ever within itself: large companies are running, small and medium-sized ones are struggling to maintain margins and competitiveness.
The common thread that unites data, conferences, and the positions of the protagonists is simple and challenging:
The future of Italian wine will depend on the ability to innovate without losing its identity, to grow in size and expertise, and to transform crises into opportunities to realign production, markets, and perceived value.
The Italian wine sector is experiencing a phase in which signs of structural strength coexist with tensions on international markets, competitive pressures, and profound transformations in consumer habits.
Exports: United States struggling due to tariffs and unfavorable exchange rate
The U.S. market, the primary outlet for Italian wine, is experiencing a marked slowdown. The UIV Wine Observatory recorded a 28% drop in export volumes and a 13.5% reduction in average price (from $6.52 to $5.64/liter) in the two-month period July–August.
The tariffs introduced by the Trump administration and the weak dollar are compressing margins and jeopardizing the mid-market, which is exposed to competition from American producers. UIV emphasizes the need for effective cost sharing along the supply chain, while Frescobaldi encourages companies to strengthen their international presence with a medium- to long-term perspective.
Global scenario: slight recovery in production but still weak trend
According to OIV estimates, global wine production in 2025 is expected to reach 232 million hectolitres: 3% higher than in 2024, but still 7% lower than the five-year average.
Italy maintains its world lead with 47.3 million hectoliters, ahead of France and Spain. However, the recovery is patchy: the weather continues to slow many regions, including France, which recorded a 16% decline compared to recent years’ averages. Despite the fluctuations, the international market remains substantially balanced thanks to slowing demand.
Italy: Growing exports and consolidated quality
In 2025, the value of Italian exports will exceed 8.2 billion euros , confirming the country as the world’s leading exporter by volume and second by value after France.
Production is back on track after a decline in 2023, while domestic consumption remains stable (37.8 liters per capita, 8.5 million daily consumers). This growth, however, faces the uncertainties of US tariffs, which could potentially erode significant market shares.
Increasing inventories and slower markets
As of October 31, 2025, national inventories reached 44.5 million hectoliters , up 5.2% from the previous year. This high level is driven by a bountiful harvest and slower demand, especially in the US. Veneto, Emilia-Romagna, and Tuscany account for over 50% of the stocks; Prosecco, IGT Toscana, and IGT Puglia lead the ranking of the most commonly stocked denominations.
Consumption: France down and Gen Z moving towards low-alcohol
France is seeing declines in large-scale retail trade: still wines are down 3% in volume and value, reds are suffering significantly, and Champagne is declining. Prosecco, however, is booming (up 14% in volume).
At the same time, young European consumers are turning to low-alcohol drinks: ciders, non-alcoholic sparkling wines, Christmas spritzes, and alcohol-free mulled wines are becoming key features of the 2025 festivities, driven by a concern for well-being and sustainability.
Finance and mergers: the “Compagnia del Gusto” is born
The wine and food sector continues to be considered a strategic investment asset. The new holding company, Compagnia del Gusto, aims to bring together food and wine excellence—from seafood specialties to premium wines—with a strategy of international growth, innovation, and sustainability.
The project, structured around three business units (Compagnia del Mare, delle Vigne, and dei Sapori), aims to create a synergistic model for distribution, logistics, and local development, with a target turnover of €200 million.
European Policies: Progress in the “Wine Package”
Confagricoltura welcomes the new regulatory framework approved by the European Parliament: permits for replanting have been extended from three to eight years and EU funding of up to 80% for climate mitigation investments. However, critical areas remain to be addressed to truly strengthen European competitiveness.
Italian competitiveness: promotion and innovation as strategic levers
A clear need emerged from the Confcooperative conference: to secure the future of the sector with a long-term vision based on promotion, research, sustainability, and market development. Global consumption continues to decline for red wines, while white, rosé, and sparkling wines are growing.
Land Value: Barolo Leads the Ranking of Most Valuable Vineyards
The land market continues to show marked territorial disparities. Barolo reached record values of up to €2.3 million per hectare , followed by areas such as Bolgheri, Montalcino, Valdobbiadene, and Caldaro. Italy’s finest vineyards remain among the most sought-after agricultural assets internationally.
Awards: Italy already in Wine Spectator’s Top 10
Castello di Ama’s Chianti Classico San Lorenzo Gran Selezione 2021 has entered the provisional Top 10 of Wine Spectator’s “Top 100,” ranking at number 9, confirming the strong identity of Tuscan winemaking on global markets.
Conclusion
This week confirms a complex yet opportunity-rich picture: Italy maintains its manufacturing leadership and growing exports, despite facing more selective markets, changing consumers, and an uncertain geopolitical environment. The answers lie in innovation, aggregation, supply chain efficiency, and a more robust international strategy, elements that define the trajectory of future competitiveness.
The Italian and European wine sector is experiencing a period of apparent stability, but beneath the surface, profound transformations are taking place that are reshaping production, trade, and consumption.
Wine Trends in Italy – Week 3-7 November 2025 (Analysis by Eros Zago)
The week ends with a complex picture: signs of production recovery, tensions on international markets, an increasingly selective consumer, and new strategic lines for the relaunch of Italian wine.
European production: apparent stability, structural fragility
European Union wine production is estimated at 145.5 million hectolitres for 2025 (1% compared to 2024), but remains 7.5% below the five-year average.
Italy confirms its leadership with 47 million hectolitres (8%), ahead of France (37 Mhl, 2.3%) and Spain (31.5 Mhl, -15%).
Behind the slight recovery in volumes lies a long-term downward trend: since 2018, EU production has fallen by over 40 million hectoliters. 2025 was marked by extreme weather events and a complex trade environment, exacerbated by new US tariffs on European wines.
Fine wines and new tastes: the era of “liquid awareness”
According to the London Fine Wine Trends Report from London club 67 Pall Mall , the fine wine market is transforming.
The evolved consumer favours authenticity, drinkability and immediate value , while the myth of big labels and the “en primeur” system is losing its appeal.
Interest in South Africa (26% in 10 years), English Sparkling Wine (79% since 2015) and consumption of Italian wines (37.5%) are growing, particularly from regions such as Sicily and Tuscany .
The future of fine wine will be driven by a more informed, digital and independent public, with increasing attention to sustainability, low alcohol content and lightweight packaging .
Geopolitics and Trade: Italy Seeks a Transatlantic Alliance
In Rome, the meeting between Lamberto Frescobaldi (UIV) and European Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič confirmed the need for a common strategy to counter American tariffs and accelerate treaties with Mercosur and India .
Italy is aiming for an alliance with American trade , emphasizing that every dollar invested in EU wines generates $4.50 for the US economy. Wine thus also becomes a tool of economic diplomacy .
Signs of recovery: Financial law and dealcoholized wines
Two pieces of news fuel confidence in the future of the sector:
- 2026 Budget Law – Budget law provides for an increase in funding for promotion and internationalization of up to €250 million annually for the three-year period 2026-2028.
- Decree on dealcoholized wines – currently awaiting final approval, will open a new production frontier, meeting the growing demand for low- and no-alcohol wines .
A double strategic step towards a more competitive, modern, and international Italian wine.
Global trade and re-exports: the new geography of wine
The OIV study quantifies the value of global re-exports at 4.55 billion euros , equal to 13.5% of the total.
New hubs are emerging: the UK, Belgium and Singapore , high-value clearinghouses for premium and super-premium wines.
For Italy, re-export represents approximately 8% of total exports , highlighting the growing importance of distribution as a strategic lever for competitiveness and profitability.
Domestic consumption: “less, but better”
The NielsenIQ data presented at Milan Wine Week depicts an Italy that drinks less but makes better choices.
In off-trade channels, volume is decreasing but value is increasing, driven by sparkling wines, versatile whites and DOC/IGP .
The 30-44 age group is leading the transformation: informed, sustainable, price-conscious and open to deal-alcohol .
In the Horeca channel, the “quality of the experience” dominates: a thoughtful wine list, local storytelling, and staff training.
The trend towards premiumisation is consolidating: less quantity, more identity and transparency.
European policies: simplifications and flexibility
The European Parliament, through the Agriculture Committee (COMAGRI), has approved the amendments to the “Wine Package” , which simplify labelling, promotion and financial management .
A step forward towards more efficient regulation, with greater support for exports and long-term promotional projects.
Conclusion: the future of Italian wine
Italian wine enters 2026 with solid foundations but decisive challenges : economic sustainability, market diversification, digitalization, and new consumption styles.
Italy maintains its manufacturing leadership, but must now consolidate it with a vision of value, identity, and innovation .
The watchword is clear: less quantity, more strategic quality —from the vineyard to the table, from the territory to the world.