The picture that emerged during the week of March 23-27, 2026, depicts a market that continues to face pressure on multiple fronts—declining domestic consumption, geopolitical tensions, slowing exports, logistical challenges, and growing consumer sensitivity to health, price, and simplicity of language—but which, at the same time, shows some areas of strong resilience and even growth.
The Italian wine sector continues to experience a complex, but uneven, phase.
The most obvious fact is that Italian wine is not facing a linear crisis. Rather, it is immersed in a structural transformation that clearly distinguishes categories, markets, sales channels, and consumption patterns. In this scenario, sparkling wines, and Prosecco in particular, remain the most resilient segment, while the rest of the industry is being called upon to rethink its positioning, communication, and consumer relations.
1. Prosecco confirms itself as the true strength of Italian wine
In a challenging overall environment, Prosecco once again emerges as the most robust product in the national wine scene. In the run-up to Easter 2026, orders are expected to increase by 4%, a sign that Italian sparkling wines continue to naturally satisfy convivial and festive consumption.
The numbers of the three denominations confirm this strength:
- Prosecco DOC : 667 million bottles in 2025, 1.1% more than in 2024
- Conegliano Valdobbiadene Prosecco Superiore DOCG : approximately 98 million bottles, 8%
- Asolo Prosecco DOCG : over 32 million bottles, 16%, the most dynamic growth among the three denominations
Prosecco DOC maintains a strong international appeal, with over 82% of production destined for export and an estimated production value exceeding €3 billion. Even the data for the first two months of 2026, which indicates a technical decline in bottling, is not interpreted as a weakening of demand, but rather as strategic inventory management, particularly with the US market in mind. Cellar stocks have increased by 5.8%, a sign of a system that has preferred to modulate flows to accommodate the absorption of foreign inventories.
On the international front, it is worth noting the excellent performance of France, which recorded double-digit growth (18%) and consolidated its position as the third most profitable market for the denomination after the United States and the United Kingdom.
The strategic interpretation is clear: Prosecco continues to win because it perfectly captures the dominant drivers of contemporary consumption—accessibility, immediacy, conviviality, international recognition, and compatibility with less formal consumption occasions.
2. 2025 closed in decline, but Italy held up better than many competitors
2025 ended with a decline in Italian wine exports of -3.7% in value and -1.8% in volume , but this data must be read against an even more negative international backdrop for many competitors. According to an analysis by Denis Pantini (Wine Monitor Nomisma), Italy lost ground, but held up better than other major exporting countries:
- France: -4%
- Spain: -5%
- Australia: -15%
- Chile: -10%
- United States: over -33%
This means that, despite a contraction, Italian wine maintains a relatively stronger competitive edge compared to its main competitors. The German and Brazilian markets have shown positive signs, partially offsetting the greater difficulties experienced in other areas.
For 2026, the forecast remains cautious but not dramatic. If the weaker markets were to rebound, if the geopolitical situation improved, and if Italian consumers regained confidence, the year might not even end in negative territory. This forecast doesn’t warrant easy optimism, but it does confirm that we’re not facing a systemic collapse, but rather a very delicate phase of rebalancing.
3. The start of 2026 is weak: Italian exports slowing, agri-food under pressure
However, the first signs of 2026 point to a difficult start. In January 2026, Made in Italy products fell 4.6% compared to January 2025, while the agri-food sector recorded an even more significant decline, at 7.7% . The United States’ performance was particularly severe, with the agri-food sector contracting by 26.4% .
These figures are also affected by the comparison with the beginning of 2025, when many companies had brought forward orders and inventories in anticipation of possible US tariffs. However, the data confirms the fragility of the international context: Germany (-4.8%), France (-7.5%), and the United Kingdom (-12.3%) also saw declines, while positive signs emerged from Switzerland (-15.5%), China (-14.6%), and Austria (-5.1%).
The message for the wine industry is very clear: dependence on traditional markets increasingly exposes it to geopolitical, fiscal, and distribution cycles. It is therefore crucial to strengthen its presence in high-potential markets, with more flexible commercial strategies and greater direct reach.
4. Large-scale retail trade confirms the decline in consumption, but saves sparkling wines
The most immediate thermometer of the domestic market remains the large-scale retail trade, and the 2025 data show a clear contraction:
- 737 million liters of wine and sparkling wine sold
- 20 million liters less than in 2024
- -3.4% in volume
- -1.1% in value
- total turnover of around 2.36 billion euros
The data points to a two-pronged decline: purchases are decreasing, and rising prices are no longer sufficient to offset the decline. Bottled wines with designations of origin (DOC, DOCG, IGT) are also down 2.6% in volume, while fortified wines remain the weakest category.
The only segment that continues to grow is that of sparkling wines :
- 1.5% by volume
- 1.2% in value
- approximately 109 million liters
- approximately 750 million euros
Growth is more moderate than in the past, but it’s significant because it confirms a distinct trajectory compared to the rest of the market. Italian consumers continue to prize wines that combine freshness, ease of consumption, gastronomic versatility, and a sense of accessible gratification.
5. Best-selling wines: Prosecco dominates, many traditional reds suffer
Among the most purchased wines in large-scale retail trade in 2025, the podium is very clear:
- Prosecco : over 53 million liters, 2.6%
- Lambrusco : over 28 million liters, -7.2%
- Trebbiano : over 23 million liters, 0.3%
Prosecco remains not only the best-selling wine, but also the dominant value, with approximately €392 million spent in large-scale retail trade. Chianti and Vermentino follow, but are far behind.
On the consumption front, some consolidated trends emerge:
- Italians choose more still wines than sparkling ones
- they choose more whites than reds
- but the most purchased individual wine is still still red , with over 261 million litres
Among the growing categories, the following stand out:
- Grecanico : 13.7%
- Nebbiolo : 9.7%
- Pinot Noir : 7.8%
- Classic Method : 6.3%
- Ribolla Gialla : 4.2%
- Primitivo di Puglia : 3%
- Vermentino : 2.5%
This is an interesting signal: while part of the market is declining, some typologies are growing thanks to a more defined identity, greater recognisability or better harmony with new consumer tastes.
6. Prices are rising, but wine in Italy remains among the least inflated products in Europe.
One of the most significant aspects is that wine continues to suffer in consumer perception, but not because it has seen particularly sharp price increases in Italy. On the contrary, according to Eurostat data compiled by FRED and analyzed by the American Association of Wine Economics, between 2015 and 2025, consumer wine prices in Italy increased by only 7.4% , one of the lowest levels in Europe.
For comparison:
- Germany: 22.6%
- France: 25.7%
- Spain: 27.4%
Even in Italian large-scale retail trade, the average price of bottled wines with a designation of origin stood at 5.69 euros/litre , up 2.1% on 2024, in line with the 2% increase already recorded the previous year.
This data leads to an important reflection: the problem with wine today isn’t just its absolute price, but the relationship between price, perceived value, frequency of consumption, and available alternatives. In other words, it’s not enough to say that wine prices haven’t increased significantly; we need to ask ourselves whether consumers still perceive wine as a natural, simple, and justified purchase.
7. Foreign markets are becoming more selective: Germany is more solid, the United Kingdom is more difficult
On the export front, two different signals emerge.
Germany
Germany remains a major market for Italian wine. In 2025, Italian wine imports exceeded €1 billion , accounting for over 40% of the market. Italian PDO wines are:
- 5.4% by volume
- 4.2% in value
Prosecco remains the most exported Italian wine, but Veneto whites, Piedmont reds, and PDO sparkling wines other than Prosecco and Asti are also growing. Germany remains a highly price-oriented market, yet very open to Italian wine, which maintains a competitive advantage thanks to cultural familiarity, the variety of its offerings, and the strength of its appellations.
United Kingdom
The British picture is more challenging. In 2025, wine imports to the UK will decline:
- -4.6% in value
- -6% in volume
Italy remains the leading supplier in volume, with 298.3 million liters , but recorded a 2% decline and a 2.4% reduction in average price. Italian sparkling wines still generate more value than still wines, with £440 million versus £431 million , but the British system is clearly showing signs of tightening due to taxation, changing consumption, and increased competition.
Here, the issue isn’t just selling, but selling better: a comparison with France clearly demonstrates this. The French generate almost the same value as Italy on sparkling wines, but with much lower volumes and much higher prices. This signals a strategic difference in positioning that Italian wine will increasingly have to address.
8. The sector must change its language, not just its product
One of the strongest themes that emerged this week is cultural rather than commercial. The most effective summary is this: it’s not consumers who are turning away from wine, it’s wine that’s losing them .
The problem isn’t just tariffs, conflicts, or the Highway Code. The problem also lies in wine’s difficulty in speaking to new generations, simplifying its language, making itself accessible without losing depth, and presenting itself as an experience and not just a technical term.
Wine continues to have enormous symbolic, territorial, and emotional power, but it often presents itself with codes that are too elitist, self-referential, or unsuitable for new audiences. This is why everything that creates a direct connection becomes central:
- wine tourism
- opening of the cellars
- hospitality
- authentic storytelling
- commercial training
- simple but not trivial communication
- conscious drinking culture
In essence, the industry must shift from a product-centric approach to one that focuses on the consumer, the relationship, and the experience.
9. New directions: dealcoholized products, logistics, geopolitical tensions and supply chain imbalances
Alongside market themes, this week also highlighted new lines of transformation.
Alcohol-free wine
Alcohol-free wine is emerging as a niche with high potential, especially in Northern European, American, and Australian markets. In Italy, the sector is still in its infancy, but the fact that it can be produced in our country as of this year, albeit excluding DOP wines, opens up new opportunities for diversification.
Logistics under pressure
The war in the Middle East is creating significant complications for wine transportation: airspace closures, maritime diversions via Africa, longer lead times, higher costs, temperature risks, and unpredictable deliveries. For a seasonal and promotional industry like wine, the impact on planning can be significant.
Imbalance between wine and grapes
In areas like the Oltrepò, another critical signal is emerging: while bulk wine prices may be rising, grape prices continue to plummet, in many cases to levels close to production costs. This imbalance is challenging the agricultural base and risks structurally weakening entire production areas.
10. Final picture: Italian wine holds up, but needs to reposition itself
The week of March 23-27, 2026, therefore paints a very clear picture. Italian wine isn’t in decline, but it is experiencing a very tough competitive selection process.
The Italian wine sector is currently undergoing a structural transformation that simultaneously affects production, consumption, international trade, and market models.
The data and analyses released during the week of March 16-20, 2026, confirm that the wine industry is not simply experiencing a cyclical phase, but rather a profound shift in the economic balance that has sustained the sector over the past few decades.
Exports down in 2025: the impact of tariffs and the global slowdown
2025 ended on a negative note for Italian wine exports. According to data from the Italian Wine Union Observatory based on Istat, exports reached 7.78 billion euros , a 3.7% decrease compared to 2024 , equal to approximately 300 million euros , while volumes fell 1.9% to approximately 21 million hectoliters .
The slowdown was primarily driven by tensions in non-EU markets, particularly the United States, the world’s leading market for Italian wine, where sales fell by 9.2% , resulting in a loss of approximately €178 million . In the second half of 2025, the decline was even more pronounced, with peaks approaching 23% and a significant reduction in average prices.
Overall, non-European markets recorded a contraction of -6.4% , while the European Union demonstrated greater stability, with growth of 0.5% driven by Germany, France and the Netherlands.
At a territorial level, the three major Italian wine regions remain dominant:
- Veneto : 2.9 billion euros (-1.2%)
- Tuscany : 1.17 billion (-2%)
- Piedmont : 1.15 billion (-2.2%)
Together they represent over 66% of national exports , confirming the strong geographical concentration of the value of Italian wine in the world.
Global consumption and demand: the market is polarizing
The most significant change, however, concerns demand. Global wine consumption is not simply decreasing: its structure is changing .
The market is polarizing into three large segments:
- Large-scale distribution and accessible segment
It remains relatively stable because it caters to more controlled and price-conscious domestic consumption. In a context of inflation and reduced spending outside the home, many consumers are protecting their daily purchases by choosing more affordable bottles. - Super-premium segment
Iconic wines with a strong territorial reputation demonstrate strong resilience. Here, wine is purchased as an experience, a gift, or a collectible. Consumption decreases in frequency but maintains its value. - Mid-market range
This is the segment most exposed to the crisis. Too expensive to be considered everyday consumption and not distinctive enough to be perceived as a premium choice, it is experiencing strong competitive pressure and margin compression.
This dynamic represents one of the main factors of the current overproduction , that is, production exceeding the market’s actual absorption capacity.
Overproduction: From an Agricultural Problem to a Strategic Problem
For many years, the excess wine was managed as a technical or agricultural problem, using tools such as emergency distillations or temporary storage. Today, it’s clear that these solutions are merely stopgap measures.
The key issue is strategic and industrial : part of the supply is no longer aligned with current demand. Continuing to produce large volumes of undistinguished wines aimed at the mid-range market represents one of the riskiest decisions for many companies today.
The market increasingly rewards:
- territorial identity
- stylistic recognisability
- range coherence
- clarity of positioning
The Prosecco case: bottling to slow down in 2026
Among the most evident signs of the new context is the slowdown of Prosecco DOC , one of the driving forces of Italian exports in recent years.
In the first two months of 2026 , bottling recorded:
- -19% in January
- -14% in February
The decline is partly linked to the rush to buy stocks that occurred in 2025 before the introduction of US tariffs, but even analyzing the average of the last four years, the figure remains negative ( -7% ). This signal highlights a phase of readjustment for one of the symbolic products of Italian wine.
International markets: new strategies and investments
In parallel with the slowdown in some emerging markets, such as China – where wine imports decreased by -14.6% in value and -26.7% in volume – some companies continue to invest in building international distribution platforms.
Operations such as Ethica Wines’ expansion into the Chinese market demonstrate how the sector is seeking to strengthen its presence in global markets through more structured and integrated distribution models.
New consumption models: drinkability, moderation and simplicity
The style of wines finding their way onto the market is also changing. Consumers are increasingly seeking:
- drinkability and freshness
- more moderate alcohol content
- gastronomic versatility
- immediacy of consumption
In a context where people drink less, the ease of returning to purchase becomes a decisive metric.
Young People and Wine: A Cultural Challenge
One of the central themes that emerged in the sector debate concerns the relationship between wine and new generations.
The decline in consumption among young people stems not only from economic factors but also from cultural distance. Wine is often perceived as too complex or elitist, while cocktails and spirits convey conviviality, simplicity, and immediacy.
The challenge for the sector is therefore to change its language and storytelling methods , maintaining the cultural depth of wine but making it more accessible, contemporary and inclusive.
Wine tourism: one of the drivers of growth
In contrast to the slowdown in traditional consumption, wine tourism continues to grow strongly.
In 2025:
- visitors in structured cellars 16.8%
- direct sales 21.4%
- Average booking value: 39.4 euros per adult
More and more wineries consider wine tourism not as an ancillary activity but as a strategic business asset and relationship with the consumer .
Sustainability and regenerative viticulture
Another strategic direction concerns the adoption of more sustainable agricultural models. There is growing interest in regenerative viticulture , which aims not only to reduce environmental impact but also to improve soil fertility, biodiversity, and the resilience of vineyards to climate change through digital technologies and innovative agronomic practices.
Conclusion: a sector entering economic maturity
Italian wine remains a cornerstone of the European agri-food economy and a cultural symbol of Made in Italy. However, the sector is entering a phase of economic maturity similar to that experienced by other premium cultural and consumer goods.
The future will no longer depend on the quantity produced, but on the ability to create value.
In a world that consumes less wine, the producers and territories capable of making every bottle necessary, recognizable, and desirable will win. The challenge is not to fill the market, but to conquer a space within an increasingly aware and selective consumer base.
This week captures a sector entering a phase of harsh reorganization: more selective demand, high inventories, pressure on prices (even for “fine wines”), and an institutional response that attempts to restore flexibility to a system built for “always” growth.
The underlying message is simple and a little ruthless: it’s no longer enough to produce well; we need to manage volumes, channels, and positioning with industrial discipline.
1) “Big player” shock: Treasury Wine Estates slowing down (global signal)
The Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) case is a bell that rings loudly because it concerns a giant with premium and super-premium brands. In the first half of the 2026 fiscal year (ending December 31, 2025), TWE recorded:
- operating income at AUD 236.4 million ( -39.6% ),
- net revenues at 1.3 billion AUD ( -16% )
- statutory NPAT loss of AUD 649.4 million,
- AUD 770.5 million write-down on US assets (higher than expected).
The strategic interpretation is clear: the negative trends in the US and China are also affecting those perceived as “protected” by their positioning. TWE’s response is a multi-year plan (” TWE Ascent “) targeting AUD 100 million per year in cost reduction and a portfolio review along three lines: leadership in luxury reds , growth in premium whites , and a push for low/no alcohol and “modern refreshment.” In other words: the market is rewarding agility and product line innovation, not reputational inertia.
2) EU exports: drop in bottled still wines, and DOPs pay the highest price
On the European perimeter, the data (February 2022 vs October 2025) show:
- EU exports of still bottled wines in value -2.8% : from €16.1 to €15.7 billion (approximately €460 million ).
- the most affected part is the bottled PDO : -€424 million (almost the entire overall loss).
- Bottled PGI : -€71.8 million (-2.6%).
- without indication : -15.8 million € (-1.7%).
- only growth: bottled varietals €51.7 million (6.5%).
In volume, bottled PDO wines recorded a decline of 3.3 million hl (-17.5%) . Despite this, as of October 2025, they still accounted for 71.9% of EU exports (PGI 17.2%; remainder 11%).
Message: The PDO “locomotive” remains central, but it is suffering the most as demand shrinks and becomes price-sensitive. The market, at this stage, is showing greater traction in categories perceived as more immediate, understandable, and flexible .
3) Piedmont: Barolo/Barbaresco “bubble” and falling grape prices (the premium is not immune)
The most severe focus in Italy comes from Piedmont: consortia and supply chains describe a crisis comparable (in severity) to 2008, with full cellars and declining demand. Some key data:
- average consumption indicated to drop to 20 litres/year per capita ,
- Barolo stock: from 65 million bottles (2019) to 74.9 million (15%),
- Barbaresco stock: from 19 million to 21.8 million (14.7%),
- grape prices (Cuneo Chamber of Commerce): -32% Barolo , -24% Barbaresco , with significant drops also on Nebbiolo d’Alba/Langhe Nebbiolo and Barbera.
Two sides emerge in the debate: those calling for extraordinary measures (distillation of surpluses, exit incentives) and those viewing the correction as “necessary” after years of excessively high prices. In the background, a reputational risk: the compression of the value of fine wine through channels and pricing policies (foreign retail, private labels) that can erode its identity and pricing power.
4) Italy: certifications and product mix (Valoritalia) confirm the shift in consumption
Valoritalia’s numbers (updated to December 31, 2025) describe a 2025 of consolidation:
- total certified bottlings -2.1% vs 2024,
- DOC/DOCG 1% , IGT -12% ,
- by type: sparkling wines 1% , rosés 5.7% , still whites 2.7% , reds -13% ,
- Italian wine exports (Nomisma Wine Monitor recall): approximately -3% in value in 2025,
- Large-scale retail trade in Italy: volumes -2.8% ; still/sparkling wines -3.8% , sparkling wines 3.1% .
Two heavy structural notes:
- fragility of micro-denominations (many, small, more exposed to fluctuations),
- highly fragmented sector: the majority bottles small volumes, but the concentration “at the top” remains significant.
5) Policies and rules: EU “redesigns” the sector (more flexibility and less friction on exports)
The EU reform adopted by the Council aims to make the sector more competitive and resilient:
- tools for rebalancing supply/demand (including eradication in case of excess),
- planting rights without a “dry expiry date”, but with a ten-yearly review ,
- climate support up to 80% of eligible costs (mitigation/adaptation),
- simpler and more harmonized labelling, with a push towards digital/pictograms ,
- Official definitions for low/no alcohol : “non-alcoholic” <0.5%; “0.0%” <0.05%; “reduced alcohol content” for significant reductions,
- for extra-EU exports: exemption from ingredients and nutritional declaration (reduction of bureaucracy),
- more support for wine tourism and phytosanitary protection (e.g. flavescence dorée).
At the same time, in Italy UIV reports growing stocks (61 million hl of wine, almost 68 million hl including musts) and calls for production potential to be made more flexible with a revision of the Consolidated Law.
6) International scenario: tariffs, cuts and “crisis distillations” (USA and France)
- In the US, the tariff analysis describes a year of extra costs, struggling exports, and trade hostility , with impacts especially on exporters and those dependent on foreign supplies (bottles, barrels, machinery). Even where sales are holding up, they often do so at lower margins .
- US giant Gallo announces further closures and cuts (93 workers affected, effective April 15) due to evolving demand and available capacity.
- In France, a textbook measure for managing surpluses has been implemented: €40 million to distill 1.2 million hl of surplus red and rosé wines, to restore balance before the 2026 harvest.
The international picture converges: when stocks become a systemic problem, supply chains move from “marketing” to “surgery”.
7) Markets and promotion: more teams and more geographies (emerging UK)
On the trade front, Italy is pushing the idea of creating a system: institutions and platforms (Vinitaly/Veronafiere and ICE/ITA) are aiming to consolidate established markets and open up new ones. In parallel, a platform like “Wine Experience” is being established and strengthened, with a 2026 road show starting in London (April 26–27, 2026) and targeting emerging markets like Vietnam and Mexico , with the goal of creating structured promotional and matching opportunities.
8) Culture-consumption: the generational divide remains a real (not moral) issue
The debate on young people and wine, despite the provocations, brings the industry back to a point of truth: consumption is changing for social, health, and lifestyle reasons. Wine must therefore work on usage opportunities , languages, formats, and products (including low- and no-cost options), without losing its identity but without appealing only to those who are already “converted.”
The week of February 16–20, 2026, shows a sector that is holding steady in “certified” quality volumes, but experiencing growing industrial tension: weak global demand, slowing exports, bulk prices under pressure and inventories that continue to rise despite a “contained” 2025 harvest.
The result is a two-speed Italian wine industry: DOP, whites, and sparkling wines are more resilient, while reds and “generic/IGT” labels are suffering much more.
In the background, a structural theme emerges: fragmentation of denominations and, simultaneously, greater industrial concentration in certified volumes.
1) Bottling 2025: -2.1% overall, but the DOP range is growing
Valoritalia data (updated to December 31, 2025) indicates an overall decline of -2.1% compared to 2024 in certified bottling. However, the message is not a “collapse,” but rather a stabilization : volumes remain higher than pre-Covid , and the contraction is considered limited .
Inside that -2.1% is the most interesting part:
- DOC/DOCG: 1% (on an annual basis and compared to the average of the last three years) → “organized” quality continues to act as a driving force, especially for exports.
- IGT: -12% compared to 2024 (and -10% on the average of the previous three years) → net decline of the largest and often most “commodity” or least identifiable segment.
Strategic reading: the market is rewarding identity, recognisability and positioning , penalising what is perceived as “interchangeable”.
2) The demand is changing: whites, rosés, and sparkling wines are ahead; reds are slowing down significantly.
The typological divide is now structural and will become even more evident in 2025:
- Sparkling wines: 1%
- Rosé: 5.7%
- Still whites: 2.7%
- Rossi: over -13%
What it really means: It’s not just “trend.” It’s a shift in consumption (in Italy and around the world) toward fresher, less demanding wines , often more compatible with new drinking styles and a growing awareness of alcohol, lightness, and immediacy. Regions historically associated with full-bodied reds risk paying a double price: declining demand and stagnant inventory.
3) Micro-denominations: many acronyms, little critical mass (and more vulnerability)
The appellation breakdown by size is a key point this week. The micro-appellations (under 10,000 hl) are:
- 70% of certified DOs , but
- only 2% of bottled volumes , and in 2025 they will be -7.2% (worse than average).
The dynamics by size range show that critical mass matters :
- 10–20,000 hl: 3%
- 20–50,000 hl: -4.7%
- 50–150,000 hl: 4%
- over 150,000 hl: -2.7%
Diagnosis: Micro-DOs struggle to cope with market fluctuations, costs, and commercial complexity. Having a name isn’t enough: you need a strong structure (a strong consortium, planning, promotion, and channels).
4) Production structure: hyper-fragmented at the base, concentrated at the top
The numbers confirm a sector made up of many small operators and very few large ones:
- over 75% of certified bottlers sell less than 65,000 bottles
- only 171 companies (3.2%) exceed 1.3 million bottles
- the first 5 operators bottle 18% of the total certified volumes, despite being 0.1% in number
Implication: competition is no longer just “product vs. product,” but increasingly an organized system vs. fragmented system . Small businesses must choose: either they become ultra-specialized and premium , or they merge (commercially or industrially).
5) The major industrial hub: stable production, but growing inventories
Here lies the “paradox” that is squeezing margins and financial serenity.
- 2025 harvest: 44.38 million hl (approximately 0.7% compared to 2024)
- Wine stocks: 61 million hl ( 6% per year)
- Wine and must stocks: almost 68 million hl ( 7.5% )
According to UIV, after two campaigns of just over 44 million hl, even these volumes are no longer sustainable if demand is not absorbed.
Where the surplus is concentrated:
- common/varietal wines: 11.3%
- White IGT: 10.5%
- DOP: 3.6% (more stable, but still increasing)
Immediate effect on the market:
- Cellar sales: -20% compared to 2024 peaks
- Bulk prices: weak, with common whites down over 10% in several areas
Brutal translation: more inventory = more idle capital = more pressure on prices and liquidity, especially for those operating in segments less protected by brands/names.
6) Exports and markets: relative stability, but the direction is still negative
The international picture remains complex. The aforementioned analyses (Nomisma Wine Monitor) report a 3% decline in the value of Italian exports , in a context where other competitors (Australia, Chile, France) are performing worse. It’s a “victory on points,” not a triumph.
On the US front and trade tensions, UIV reports:
- US shipments 2025 estimated -9% in value
- extra-EU around -6.5%
- many companies have reduced their price lists by ~10% to defend their shares (margins under stress)
At the same time, in the US alcohol market, wine is declining (-3.5%) , while ready-to-drink products are growing strongly (16.4%), i.e. simpler, cheaper and “immediate” to enjoy.
The underlying message: simply “being present” in traditional markets isn’t enough. We need to reallocate our energies to third-party markets , trade agreements (Mercosur/India), and a more aggressive and continuous presence on the markets.
7) Data, control and planning: TESSA and the new reporting system for Consortia
An often underestimated but strategic point: data quality becomes a competitive lever.
Valoritalia is pushing the TESSA platform (developed with Microsoft) to process the movements of over 90,000 companies across 219 certified denominations , and is introducing monthly reporting for Consortia with indicators on:
- sampling, bottling
- bulk sales/transfers
- downgrades/reclassifications
- analytical parameters, stocks, volumes
- socioeconomic indicators (members/non-members, concentration indices)
Why it matters: in 2026, those who know how to plan (supply, yields, inventories, channels) will win, not those who “suffer” the market.
What this week really tells us (in one sentence)
Italian wine enters 2026 with a supply chain that relies on organised quality , but must face an industrial challenge that cannot be postponed: too many inventories compared to demand , with the need for production flexibility, organisational consolidation and commercial repositioning .