The week of January 12–16, 2026, captures an Italy of wine in the midst of a structural transition: on the one hand, the Prosecco “locomotive” continues to grind out volumes and value, on the other, the system as a whole must manage high inventories, more selective consumption and a 2026 that will reward those who defend margins, channels and identity.
In the middle, three decisive levers are at work: exports (with new opportunities but also tougher rules), repositioning towards value (not volume), and industrial adaptation to the climate.
1) Prosecco DOC: growth, resilience, and momentum 2026 (Milan-Cortina as a global showcase)
Prosecco DOC confirms its role as the driving force of Italian wine: 667 million bottles produced in 2025 (1.1% compared to 2024) , of which 60.3 million are Rosé (10% of the category) , for a total value of 3.6 billion euros . The denomination remains strongly oriented abroad: over 82% exports to 164 countries . The winning narrative is clear: an “easy” product in the best sense of the word (pleasantness, lightness, versatility, accessibility), supported by a consortium that links the brand to popular and high-visibility events.
Differentiated trajectories emerge in international markets (January–September 2025):
- USA is the leading market (23.8% of exports) and 8% , albeit with volatility linked to duties.
- UK 1.1% .
- France accelerates and becomes the third market with 21.1% , overtaking Germany.
- Germany 3.1% .
- Strong signals also from “less obvious” markets such as Greece (22.4%) and Mexico (14.5%) , while other countries are slowing down for economic and geopolitical reasons.
On the promotional front, the Consortium indicates campaigns in 39 countries with 2.1 billion impressions . For 2026, the symbolic card is powerful: Official Sparkling Wine Sponsor of the Milan Cortina 2026 Olympic and Paralympic Games , an opportunity to consolidate value and positioning.
Two textbook strategic directions for 2026:
- supply chain profitability (not just volume growth);
- measurable sustainability , with the aim of obtaining Sustainable Community certification according to ISO 37101 and the development of a Low Alcohol Prosecco (8–9 degrees) , consistent with new styles of consumption and responsible consumption.
2) Fine Wines Market: Liv-ex Power 100 2025 and the Return of Rationality
The Liv-ex Power 100 2025 indicates a fine wine market that isn’t “rebounding,” but rather stabilizing : prices appear to have found a floor, more orderly bids/offers, and greater interest in solid, correctly priced brands. Demand stops asking “how much further will it go?” and starts asking “what’s best to buy today?”, signaling a return to selectivity.
Key trends:
- Bordeaux is regaining its central role thanks to more consistent pricing policies: Cheval Blanc takes the top spot; Yquem remains in the top ten; cases like La Conseillante demonstrate the cost of a less “speculative” release and positioning strategy.
- Burgundy remains dynamic but more unstable (many entries/exits), with growing interest in more “drinkable” and less extreme price ranges.
- Champagne is experiencing one of its best results: 9 brands in the ranking, with Krug at the top and new entries such as Selosse and Salon .
Italy : Confirms its importance, but with clear internal differences. San Guido/Sassicaia soars (no. 2 overall), strengthening the role of Super Tuscans as “liquid assets” on the secondary market: global image, recognized quality, sufficient volumes, and still reasonable perceived prices. Some traditional big names, however, tied to a strong historical dependence on the US (Chianti Classico and Brunello), are struggling more, despite brands that are holding up (Ornellaia, Masseto, Tignanello, Solaia, and icons like Biondi-Santi/Soldera). In other words: in fine wine , price consistency, liquidity, and reputation are prized, not just aura.
3) 2026 Italian wine: less volume, more value (and clearer choices)
The strategic message running through all of this week’s content is one: 2026 will be a year of competitive maturity . The market no longer rewards indiscriminate offerings; it rewards those who can defend margins, manage channels, and sustain a credible identity.
Main drivers:
- Polarized demand in Italy : accessibility and simplicity in large-scale retail, while the willingness to spend on experiences and wines with a “reason” is growing when perceived quality, service, and brand are consistent.
- Horeca and wine tourism as platforms for loyalty and direct relationships (not just revenue).
- Exports remain the center of gravity, but with “strict rules”: mature markets sensitive to price; emerging markets requiring continuity and long-term investments.
- Financial management : bloated warehouses and slow turnover require planning and, where necessary, aggregation or more stringent supply chain agreements.
- Vineyards as an industrial variable : water management, rootstocks, shading, precision farming. Sustainability only works if it becomes a measurable benefit , not greenwashing.
- Product and language innovation : low/no-alcohol, new consumption opportunities, DTC and digital not as fashion, but as tools to reach different generations without losing authority.
4) Spirits: Vermouth returns to the forefront in 2026 (and gin risks natural selection)
Proposta Vini’s forecasts place the beverage market in a period of consolidation in 2026: wine is growing moderately, but the most dynamic trends are in spirits. The Proposta Spirits division closed 2025 with a 34% share of sales and identified Vermouth as the big bet for 2026: a bridge between winemaking and mixology, capable of appealing to diverse audiences (tradition for the over-50s, cocktail appeal for the younger crowd). Gin remains central and growing, but shows signs of saturation: too many brands, a potential bias toward those who can showcase local traditions and authentic foundations. The after-dinner segment is more challenging, also penalized by the regulatory and media climate surrounding consumption, while brown spirits (rum, whisky, brandy, cognac) are holding up.
5) Export and trade policy: EU–Mercosur as an “unlockable” opportunity
UIV welcomes the green light to the EU-Mercosur agreement: the South American region (over 250 million consumers) is seen as a potentially receptive market. The economic point is clear: currently, tariffs weigh up to 27% on still wines and 35% on sparkling wines exported to Brazil; their gradual elimination over eight years could improve Italian competitiveness. The Brazilian market imports nearly €500 million worth of wine annually , but Italy’s imports are worth approximately €40 million (8%) : real untapped potential, to be tapped with brand strategy, distribution continuity, and promotion.
6) EU Rules: “Wine Package” nears final approval (anti-crisis measures and No-Lo definitions)
The EU Parliament’s Agriculture Committee unanimously approved the text of the EU Wine Package (final vote expected in plenary session in February). The objective: to support a struggling sector with measures to rebalance production and demand, climate resilience, simpler labeling, wine tourism, definitions for No-Lo wines, export flexibility, plant diseases, and opportunities for aromatized wines.
Operational highlights:
- tools to manage excesses (including eradications);
- ten-year review of the plant authorization regime;
- more funds for climate-related investments;
- more streamlined labeling;
- clear definitions: alcohol-free <0.5% , 0.0% <0.05% , reduced-alcohol with a reduction of at least 30% compared to the standard;
- For exports outside the EU, exemption from the requirement to provide ingredients/nutritional values required for the domestic market (bureaucratic simplification).
7) “Cantina Italia”: high inventories, pressure on prices and need for commercial discipline
The most “heavy” figure for 2026 management is that of stocks: as of December 31, 2025, wine stocks reach 59.5 million hectolitres ( 11.6% compared to the end of November 2025 and 4.4% compared to December 31, 2024). To these are added 7.7 million hectolitres of musts and 2.8 million hectolitres of Vnaif . Stocks are concentrated in the North (58.6%), especially Veneto (27.3%) . In terms of “types”, the wine in stock is 54.2% DOP , 26.4% IGP , 1.6% varietals , 17.9% other wines .
Denominations with the greatest weight in stock: Prosecco Dop alone is worth 5.8 million hectolitres (12.2%) , followed by Igp Puglia (2.0 million hl) , Igp Toscana (1.75%) , Doc Delle Venezie (1.72%) , Igp Terre Siciliane (1.71%) , Igp Veneto (1.6%) , Doc Sicilia (1.5%) , Igp Salento (1.4%) , Chianti Docg (1.39%) , Igp Rubicone (1.3%) . This is the classic scenario in which “making wine” is not enough: channel discipline , rotation and commercial policies consistent with the inventory are needed, otherwise the warehouse becomes a financial brake.
8) Prices and consumption: Italy is the “cheapest” in Europe, but it’s not enough to increase consumption
A Destatis study reports that Italy is the EU country with the lowest wine/alcohol prices (about 19% below the EU average, October 2025). Yet, the issue isn’t just price: consumption is declining due to cultural dynamics, health concerns, competition from other beverages, and changing lifestyles. This data is useful because it refutes the simplistic idea that “increase the price and consumption falls” is the only lever: behaviors in different markets are not linear.
9) Quality-price and reputation: signs that the market wants “credible wines”
Two reputation indicators complete the picture:
- Wine Spectator Top 10 Values 2025 : Italian presence with labels with high perceived value at an accessible price (e.g. Chianti Classico Tenuta di Arceno, Barbera d’Asti Michele Chiarlo), a sign that the quality-price range is a strategic area, especially for sensitive markets.
- BWW 2025 : international awards and rankings (Petrus 2020 best wine; among the Italians cited Masseto 2020, Sassicaia 2021, Solaia 2020, Barolo Sperss 2018; Monteverro “Best New Winery”) reinforce the narrative: high-end wines thrive on reputation, but they work when supported by consistency and the market.
The transition from late 2025 to early 2026 captures a sector that isn’t experiencing a “seasonal crisis,” but rather a paradigm shift: structurally lower consumption, price pressure, shrinking large-scale retail trade, more selective exports, and a single category that continues to clearly act as a driving force: sparkling wines, especially Prosecco.
Within this framework, the real issue is not “how much wine we produce,” but what value we manage to defend and build along the supply chain (brand, positioning, channels, real sustainability, territory).
1) 2025: “Prosecco, Prosecco and Prosecco”
In 2025, Prosecco (Docg Conegliano Valdobbiadene, Asolo and Doc) performed better than many other Italian types, even quality ones, intercepting two market forces that now count more than anything else:
- drinkability (more “easy”, fresh, immediate profiles);
- lower alcohol content and a perception of lightness, in line with health trends and new consumption styles.
Prosecco still has room for international growth, but maintaining its competitive advantage isn’t automatic: it requires a quantum leap in territorial and consortium governance. The critical issue cited is very real: the management of vineyards in the Conegliano Valdobbiadene area , where sustainability (agronomic, landscape, social) becomes a reputational and production risk factor. In other words: it’s not enough to sell well today; we must prevent the territory from becoming a bottleneck tomorrow (including on the UNESCO front).
2) Europe: the “defensive” response (uprooting) does not solve the market
The European context weighs heavily: since 2000, wine consumption in Europe has fallen by 35% , and by 2025, global consumption is estimated to reach 214 million hectoliters (an all-time low, according to the text). France, Spain, and Italy still produce approximately 60% of the world’s wine , but this primacy is no longer synonymous with strength: it becomes a problem if demand can no longer keep up with volumes.
The EU plan described focuses primarily on permanent eradication (structural reduction of supply). The critical point highlighted is twofold:
- quantitatively it is often insufficient compared to the surpluses;
- on an industrial level it is a technical measure , not a strategy.
The position reported by UIV (Lamberto Frescobaldi) is clear: uprooting won’t solve Italy’s problems and can create social and territorial risks , especially in the hilly areas best suited to this (landscape management, prevention of landslides). The proposed alternative is an ” accordion-style Italian vineyard ,” that is, more flexible, with tools capable of managing surpluses and poor vintages without destroying productive capital and territorial value. The underlying message: resources are needed for innovation and promotion , not to incentivize exit from the business.
3) Sparkling wines: record and centrality of the USA (but Italy is also changing)
The most impressive data of the week concerns Italian sparkling wines: the one billion bottle mark (1.03 billion) has been surpassed, with 2025 production set to increase by 1.8% over an already record 2024. Approximately 7 out of 10 bottles will go abroad, confirming that bubbles remain the most defensible asset for Italian wine on the market.
The United States emerges as a key point: in wine demand, Italian sparkling wines are becoming even more significant than white wines in the composition of “Italian wine consumed” (in the text: 37% sparkling wines , 36% white wines , 17% red wines ). This is a strategic indicator: sparkling wine is no longer just a “celebration wine,” but is entering everyday life and a premium positioning, competing not just on price but also on identity.
The domestic shift is interesting: in 2025, growth will also be driven by domestic demand (5% in the text), with over 106 million bottles uncorked during the holidays and a decline in imports of foreign sparkling wines (-8%). Therefore, bubbles are strong abroad, but also well-established in Italy , with a growing preference for Made in Italy.
Within this framework, Prosecco (in particular Conegliano Valdobbiadene) closes with double-digit growth ( 10% in the text), while the main classic method wines (Franciacorta, Trentodoc) grow steadily and the niche denominations consolidate their presence (Oltrepò Pavese, Alta Langa).
4) Large-scale retail trade: fifth consecutive year of decline, value stable only thanks to price
Large-scale Italian distribution remains the barometer of “mass” demand, and the diagnosis is clear: volumes down, values almost stable . In the first 11 months of 2025:
- just over 552 million litres sold (–3%);
- value 2.05 billion (–0.4%);
- average price €3.72/litre (2.7%).
The 0.75-liter bottle holds up better: volume -1.8% but value 0.4% (average price €5.4/liter). The strategic interpretation reported is important: it should not be interpreted as resignation, but rather as an acknowledgement that consumption is settling at lower levels . The causes: demographics (an older Italy), cautious spending, a health-conscious attitude, and competition from alternatives in the glass and at times of consumption. The logical consequence: to compete, you need to work on the value chain (positioning, brand, channel mix, differentiation), not hope for a return to the volumes of the past.
5) Exports and markets: mixed signals, pressure on the average price
The Nomisma Wine Monitor reports a mixed picture for the first nine months of 2025: some markets are growing in value, others are declining. For Italy, the crucial data is not just where growth is occurring, but how :
- Canada and Brazil are the ones with growth in both value and volume (therefore “healthy” expansion).
- Germany is recovering in value (with a slight decline in volume), a sign of recovery after difficult years.
- USA : Total bottled wine imports decline in value but remain stable in volume; for Italy, the decline is more marked in value but growth in volume, a typical indicator of a lower average price (competitive pressure and, in the text, the effect of tariffs).
Operational translation: exports remain crucial, but increasingly, success (or survival) is achieved with intelligent product mixes and pricing , and with meticulous attention to channels and distributors. It’s not enough to simply “be there”: you have to protect value .
6) 2026: keywords and direction (Italian Wine Consortium)
The key words proposed by the leaders of several large companies sum up the current climate well: enthusiasm, beauty, experimentation, stability, resilience . In market terms, they mean something very concrete: continuing to invest even in a challenging period, but shifting the focus to innovation, identity, perceived quality, communication, and industrial solidity.
Between the end of the year and the beginning of 2026, Italian wine will enter a new cycle with a clear picture: weak domestic demand, margins under pressure, exports increasingly crucial but more difficult to defend, and a structural acceleration in sparkling wines, white wines, low/no alcohol, and wine tourism.
The signals are not seasonal “noise”: they indicate a market that is re-establishing itself at different consumption levels than in the past, with the need to shift attention from quantity to the value chain.
1) Italy: Large-scale retail trade in difficulty, declining consumption in volume and price as the only lever
The most recent data converge: Italian large-scale distribution is failing to recover and 2025 is heading towards the fifth consecutive negative closure .
- In the third quarter of 2025 (Wine Monitor analysis based on NIQ data): volumes -2.4% , values -0.2% . The summer did not generate the expected “pull-through” effect.
- January–September 2025 : values 0.7% with volumes -2.3% . The stability is due almost exclusively to average prices (3.1%) , a typical sign of demand under pressure.
- Summary data January–November 2025 (Circana/WineNews): 552 million litres sold ( -3% ), value €2.05 billion (-0.4%) , average price €3.72/litre (2.7%) . The 0.75 bottle is holding up better: volumes -1.8% , values 0.4% , average price €5.4/litre (2.3%) .
Channels: Discount stores are cooling (expansion phase halted), while e-commerce is accelerating thanks to price competitiveness and the summer response; hypermarkets and supermarkets remain the most robust formats in terms of value retention, while cash & carry remains the most fragile (though losses are slowing).
Categories:
- Still and sparkling wines : values -0.2% , volumes -3.3% , average prices 3.2% → consumption falls more than turnover.
- Sparkling wines : volumes 2.8% and substantially stable values, but with average prices -2.8% → more “accessible” mix and more promotions: it sells, but generates less unit value .
Strategic reading: the domestic market is no longer the driving force. “Value” growth in large-scale retail is fragile because it is fueled by price, not demand. Consequently, competition is shifting to margins, efficiency, product portfolio, and positioning .
2) Cantina Italia: increasing inventories and pressure on supply management
As of November 30, 2025, the following were found in Italian winemaking plants:
- 53.3 million hl of wine (8.6% vs 30/11/2024)
- 9.7 million hl of must (12.5%)
- 9.5 million hl VNAIF (stable)
Wine is concentrated in the North ( 60.7% , with a strong presence in Veneto). The breakdown by category confirms a “value” market but with significant stocks: 54.6% DOP , 26.5% IGP , varietals 1.7% , other wines 17.3% . Furthermore, IGP stocks are highly concentrated: 20 denominations out of 526 account for 58.4% .
Strategic reading: more inventory with declining consumption means greater risk of promotional pressure , financial tensions and the need to manage production with non-postponable choices (portfolio, rotation, channels, markets).
3) Export: central but more complex, especially USA (exchange duties)
With a prudent domestic economy, exports remain a vital lever. But in 2025, the external environment will become more “hostile” due to costs and volatility, particularly in the United States.
USA – double shock:
- Rush for shipments in Q1 2025 to anticipate the announced universal tariff (Liberation Day, April 2)
- From April to September the dollar lost about -10% against the euro , worsening the competitiveness on the shelf
The Wine Monitor analysis shows that in the first quarter, the increase in the average price in dollars primarily affected French wines (more “premium” hoarding, more sensitive to ad valorem duties). Over the rest of the year, the combined effect of exchange rates increases the complexity: it’s not just “how much the price rises,” but how much spending power can sustain along the three-tier system (markup multiplier).
Italian sparkling wine exports: volumes hold up, prices fall
In the first nine months of 2025 : €1.67 billion in sparkling wine exports ( -0.5% ), volumes down 2.19% → demand is present, but average prices are declining to remain competitive. Sparkling wines account for approximately 28% of wine exports .
Absolute driver: Prosecco DOP with €1.29 billion (0.5%) , 77% of total sparkling wines and approximately 23% of wine exports; volumes 4.8% .
Markets: USA stable and pro-Prosecco; UK and Germany showing signs of difficulty; France growing imports of Italian sparkling wine (a significant figure also for positioning purposes).
Strategic reading: the game is no longer about “exporting,” but defending margins and positioning with surgical commercial governance: consistent channels, tiers, assortment, pricing, and promotions.
4) Europe 2035: structural decline in consumption, production and exports
The EU Commission’s projections up to 2035 confirm a long-term trend:
- EU consumption -0.9% per year to approximately 19.3 litres per capita (from 21.2 litres on average 2021–2025)
- EU production -0.5% per year towards 138 million hl
- vineyard areas -0.6% until 2035
- EU exports -0.6% per year (imports -1.9%)
Drivers: health concerns, competition from other beverages, younger people drinking less alcohol, preference for higher-end but less frequent wines; declining demand for red wines, growth in whites and sparkling wines; increased interest in wine-based and no-/low-alcohol beverages (still small volumes).
Strategic reading: it’s not a short cycle: it’s structural change . Companies must redesign their models and markets, not “wait for it to pass.”
5) Alcohol Dealers: A Real Opportunity, But Italy Is Blocked by the Fiscal Decree
The Italian sector is “waiting” for the MEF-MASAF interministerial decree implementing the tax regulations: UIV is urging action because the stalemate (over two months in the Treasury) is leaving Italy with a four-year competitive disadvantage compared to other European producers (EU regulation, December 2021). In the meantime, many companies have already invested in equipment, training, and positioning.
Strategic reading: without an operational regulatory and tax framework, investments risk stagnation. This isn’t a trend: it’s about defending competitiveness in growing segments (low/no, hybrid beverages).
6) Trends for 2025/2026: fewer bottles, higher quality. White wines and sparkling wines are on the rise.
The Vinarius observatory (wine shop network, 120 locations, ~€50 million turnover) confirms:
- volume consumption down, but value more “resistant”
- more robust premium range, more stressed low range
- growth of whites and bubbles (Classic Method in evidence)
- preference for lightness, freshness, drinkability
- the great reds “remain”, but are consumed with more selectivity
It is the same direction indicated by international analyses (Wine-Lister): a more elegant and approachable style of wine tourism as a lever, with attention to prices and sustainability.
7) Supply-demand imbalance: the Coface reading and the incomplete “cure”
Coface describes a structural imbalance: EU consumption down 35% since 2000 , world consumption estimated at 214 million hl (among its lowest levels) by 2025, with challenges outside the EU (China down 60% vs. pre-pandemic, the US facing more complex barriers). European measures, primarily based on grubbing-up, are helping, but they’re not enough , as the issue also involves demand and changing behaviors. For producers most exposed to the lower end of the spectrum, financial strength, market diversification, credit risk management, and liquidity protection become crucial.
8) Wine tourism: Italy’s great asset (and a “digital” accelerator)
The 2025 Italian Food and Wine Tourism Report (Roberta Garibaldi) positions Italy as the leading international destination for food and wine tourism . Return and spending intentions are growing: €155/day (€52 for restaurants, €28 for typical products). Tourists are younger and more digital; social media and platforms influence their choices; willingness to pay for personalized experiences is increasing. AI is becoming increasingly important in travel planning (already a significant share in the USA and France).
Strategic reading: wine tourism is not an “accessory”: it is a valuable channel, a generator of brand equity and a DTC (direct sales) lever in a world where traditional channels compress margins.
Final summary: What this week really says (and what to do)
- The domestic market is structurally slowing down : sales are decreasing in large-scale retail trade, and value retention is often price-driven.
- Rising inventories, weak consumption = risk of pressure on prices and finances: supply and rotation governance needed.
- Exports remain vital, but things aren’t getting any easier : the US is dealing with tariffs, the exchange rate, and the three-tier system; the UK and Germany are downgrading; clear decisions are needed.
- Sparkling wines and white wines are driving demand , but be careful: bubbles are holding up even while lowering prices, so the challenge is to protect value.
- Low/no alcohol and hybrid beverages are real trends: Italy must unblock the tax decree to avoid further competitive losses.
- The future is “less volume, more quality, and more experience” : premium is more resilient, entry-level segment is more fragile; wine tourism and DTC are becoming pillars.
- 2026 = “laser focus” : not dispersion, but clear priorities on brand, sales force, consistent pricing and sharing resources on foreign markets.
- Communication needs to be updated : fewer self-referential rituals, more authenticity, simplicity, and the centrality of the experience (in the cellar and in actual consumption).
In short: Italian wine isn’t experiencing a “product crisis,” but rather a model transition . The winners are those who can read the numbers without nostalgia and transform them into operational choices: a smarter portfolio, better-served markets, a more secure price, and a narrative finally aligned with how people (really) experience wine today.
The week of December 15-20, 2025, paints a picture of an Italian wine sector marked by stark contrasts: on the one hand, unprecedented cultural and reputational recognition; on the other, structural tensions in markets, consumption, and inventory levels that require rapid and coordinated strategic decisions.
UNESCO’s recognition of Italian Cuisine as an Intangible Cultural Heritage of Humanity has significantly strengthened the international positioning of Italian wine, an integral and inseparable part of this heritage.
The sector emerges enhanced not only symbolically, but also economically: wine contributes significantly to the agri-food trade balance, with approximately €7.5 billion in annual revenue. It is an intangible asset that strengthens the Italian brand, tourism, and the overall attractiveness of the regions.
Within this framework, sparkling wines remain the true driving force of the wine industry , with Prosecco the undisputed star. The numbers for 2025 speak for themselves: 776 million bottles sold in the first nine months, a presence in 180 countries, a production value of €3 billion, and over €2 billion in exports. Growth is occurring across the three denominations—Prosecco DOC, Conegliano Valdobbiadene DOCG, and Asolo DOCG—which demonstrate their ability to work collaboratively, managing production expansion and jointly addressing crucial challenges such as declining purchasing power, US tariffs, and the search for new markets. Prosecco confirms its position as an accessible, intergenerational product with a winning quality-price ratio and extraordinary adaptability to new global consumption patterns, becoming a trailblazer for the entire Italian winemaking industry.
On the international front, mixed signals are emerging. Ukraine remains a recovering market, with consumption and imports growing in 2024–2025. Italy is a leading supplier, benefiting from a demand shift toward dry wines and Western styles, especially among younger, urban consumers. Conversely, the global picture remains complex: France also reports a decline in exports in 2025 (-2.5% in value), with sharp declines in the United States and China, demonstrating a crisis not limited to Italian wine.
In Italy, however, the most critical figure remains that of stocks . With the 2025 harvest concluded, Italian wineries held 8.6% less wine than in 2024, with over 53 million hectoliters in stock, in addition to musts and fermenting wines. The concentration of inventories in Northern Italy and in the main PDO and PGI designations highlights how even wines with higher added value are not immune to the slowdown in consumption. This structural imbalance between production and demand represents one of the main factors pressuring prices and companies’ profitability.
Italian exports continue to show signs of weakness: in the first nine months of 2025, their value fell by 2.2%, with the sharpest decline in the United States, the primary market. The recovery in volumes, despite declining values, indicates price compression to stimulate weaker demand. Some European markets, such as Germany, France, and the Netherlands, are showing positive signs, but they are not sufficient to offset the losses in non-EU markets and North America.
In this complex context, however, encouraging institutional signals are emerging. The green light for the European “Wine Package” introduces greater flexibility in crisis management tools, simplified labeling (QR codes and digital labels), strengthened promotional measures in third-party countries, and recognized wine tourism as a fundable lever. Regulatory frameworks for zero- or reduced-alcohol wines are also clarified, addressing one of the most significant global consumption trends.
Finally, the Christmas season confirms that, despite the crisis, the demand for quality remains resilient . According to Partesa, during the 2025 holidays, great Italian wines will remain central, alongside Champagne and premium international brands. There is a growing focus on authentic experiences, excellent products, and more informed consumption, with growing interest in low- and no-alcohol options as well.
Final summary
Italian wine closes 2025 suspended between an unprecedented strength of identity and reputation and an economic crisis that demands rigor, selection, and strategy. Sparkling wines—Prosecco first and foremost—lead the system and point the way: value, accessibility, supply chain coordination, and openness to new consumption styles. The challenge of the coming months will be to transform cultural and symbolic capital into economic sustainability, managing inventories, rethinking the offering, and strengthening its positioning in markets that, despite everything, continue to seek out Italian wine when it speaks the language of the present.