This week captures a sector entering a phase of harsh reorganization: more selective demand, high inventories, pressure on prices (even for “fine wines”), and an institutional response that attempts to restore flexibility to a system built for “always” growth.
The underlying message is simple and a little ruthless: it’s no longer enough to produce well; we need to manage volumes, channels, and positioning with industrial discipline.
1) “Big player” shock: Treasury Wine Estates slowing down (global signal)
The Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) case is a bell that rings loudly because it concerns a giant with premium and super-premium brands. In the first half of the 2026 fiscal year (ending December 31, 2025), TWE recorded:
- operating income at AUD 236.4 million ( -39.6% ),
- net revenues at 1.3 billion AUD ( -16% )
- statutory NPAT loss of AUD 649.4 million,
- AUD 770.5 million write-down on US assets (higher than expected).
The strategic interpretation is clear: the negative trends in the US and China are also affecting those perceived as “protected” by their positioning. TWE’s response is a multi-year plan (” TWE Ascent “) targeting AUD 100 million per year in cost reduction and a portfolio review along three lines: leadership in luxury reds , growth in premium whites , and a push for low/no alcohol and “modern refreshment.” In other words: the market is rewarding agility and product line innovation, not reputational inertia.
2) EU exports: drop in bottled still wines, and DOPs pay the highest price
On the European perimeter, the data (February 2022 vs October 2025) show:
- EU exports of still bottled wines in value -2.8% : from €16.1 to €15.7 billion (approximately €460 million ).
- the most affected part is the bottled PDO : -€424 million (almost the entire overall loss).
- Bottled PGI : -€71.8 million (-2.6%).
- without indication : -15.8 million € (-1.7%).
- only growth: bottled varietals €51.7 million (6.5%).
In volume, bottled PDO wines recorded a decline of 3.3 million hl (-17.5%) . Despite this, as of October 2025, they still accounted for 71.9% of EU exports (PGI 17.2%; remainder 11%).
Message: The PDO “locomotive” remains central, but it is suffering the most as demand shrinks and becomes price-sensitive. The market, at this stage, is showing greater traction in categories perceived as more immediate, understandable, and flexible .
3) Piedmont: Barolo/Barbaresco “bubble” and falling grape prices (the premium is not immune)
The most severe focus in Italy comes from Piedmont: consortia and supply chains describe a crisis comparable (in severity) to 2008, with full cellars and declining demand. Some key data:
- average consumption indicated to drop to 20 litres/year per capita ,
- Barolo stock: from 65 million bottles (2019) to 74.9 million (15%),
- Barbaresco stock: from 19 million to 21.8 million (14.7%),
- grape prices (Cuneo Chamber of Commerce): -32% Barolo , -24% Barbaresco , with significant drops also on Nebbiolo d’Alba/Langhe Nebbiolo and Barbera.
Two sides emerge in the debate: those calling for extraordinary measures (distillation of surpluses, exit incentives) and those viewing the correction as “necessary” after years of excessively high prices. In the background, a reputational risk: the compression of the value of fine wine through channels and pricing policies (foreign retail, private labels) that can erode its identity and pricing power.
4) Italy: certifications and product mix (Valoritalia) confirm the shift in consumption
Valoritalia’s numbers (updated to December 31, 2025) describe a 2025 of consolidation:
- total certified bottlings -2.1% vs 2024,
- DOC/DOCG 1% , IGT -12% ,
- by type: sparkling wines 1% , rosés 5.7% , still whites 2.7% , reds -13% ,
- Italian wine exports (Nomisma Wine Monitor recall): approximately -3% in value in 2025,
- Large-scale retail trade in Italy: volumes -2.8% ; still/sparkling wines -3.8% , sparkling wines 3.1% .
Two heavy structural notes:
- fragility of micro-denominations (many, small, more exposed to fluctuations),
- highly fragmented sector: the majority bottles small volumes, but the concentration “at the top” remains significant.
5) Policies and rules: EU “redesigns” the sector (more flexibility and less friction on exports)
The EU reform adopted by the Council aims to make the sector more competitive and resilient:
- tools for rebalancing supply/demand (including eradication in case of excess),
- planting rights without a “dry expiry date”, but with a ten-yearly review ,
- climate support up to 80% of eligible costs (mitigation/adaptation),
- simpler and more harmonized labelling, with a push towards digital/pictograms ,
- Official definitions for low/no alcohol : “non-alcoholic” <0.5%; “0.0%” <0.05%; “reduced alcohol content” for significant reductions,
- for extra-EU exports: exemption from ingredients and nutritional declaration (reduction of bureaucracy),
- more support for wine tourism and phytosanitary protection (e.g. flavescence dorée).
At the same time, in Italy UIV reports growing stocks (61 million hl of wine, almost 68 million hl including musts) and calls for production potential to be made more flexible with a revision of the Consolidated Law.
6) International scenario: tariffs, cuts and “crisis distillations” (USA and France)
- In the US, the tariff analysis describes a year of extra costs, struggling exports, and trade hostility , with impacts especially on exporters and those dependent on foreign supplies (bottles, barrels, machinery). Even where sales are holding up, they often do so at lower margins .
- US giant Gallo announces further closures and cuts (93 workers affected, effective April 15) due to evolving demand and available capacity.
- In France, a textbook measure for managing surpluses has been implemented: €40 million to distill 1.2 million hl of surplus red and rosé wines, to restore balance before the 2026 harvest.
The international picture converges: when stocks become a systemic problem, supply chains move from “marketing” to “surgery”.
7) Markets and promotion: more teams and more geographies (emerging UK)
On the trade front, Italy is pushing the idea of creating a system: institutions and platforms (Vinitaly/Veronafiere and ICE/ITA) are aiming to consolidate established markets and open up new ones. In parallel, a platform like “Wine Experience” is being established and strengthened, with a 2026 road show starting in London (April 26–27, 2026) and targeting emerging markets like Vietnam and Mexico , with the goal of creating structured promotional and matching opportunities.
8) Culture-consumption: the generational divide remains a real (not moral) issue
The debate on young people and wine, despite the provocations, brings the industry back to a point of truth: consumption is changing for social, health, and lifestyle reasons. Wine must therefore work on usage opportunities , languages, formats, and products (including low- and no-cost options), without losing its identity but without appealing only to those who are already “converted.”
The week of February 16–20, 2026, shows a sector that is holding steady in “certified” quality volumes, but experiencing growing industrial tension: weak global demand, slowing exports, bulk prices under pressure and inventories that continue to rise despite a “contained” 2025 harvest.
The result is a two-speed Italian wine industry: DOP, whites, and sparkling wines are more resilient, while reds and “generic/IGT” labels are suffering much more.
In the background, a structural theme emerges: fragmentation of denominations and, simultaneously, greater industrial concentration in certified volumes.
1) Bottling 2025: -2.1% overall, but the DOP range is growing
Valoritalia data (updated to December 31, 2025) indicates an overall decline of -2.1% compared to 2024 in certified bottling. However, the message is not a “collapse,” but rather a stabilization : volumes remain higher than pre-Covid , and the contraction is considered limited .
Inside that -2.1% is the most interesting part:
- DOC/DOCG: 1% (on an annual basis and compared to the average of the last three years) → “organized” quality continues to act as a driving force, especially for exports.
- IGT: -12% compared to 2024 (and -10% on the average of the previous three years) → net decline of the largest and often most “commodity” or least identifiable segment.
Strategic reading: the market is rewarding identity, recognisability and positioning , penalising what is perceived as “interchangeable”.
2) The demand is changing: whites, rosés, and sparkling wines are ahead; reds are slowing down significantly.
The typological divide is now structural and will become even more evident in 2025:
- Sparkling wines: 1%
- Rosé: 5.7%
- Still whites: 2.7%
- Rossi: over -13%
What it really means: It’s not just “trend.” It’s a shift in consumption (in Italy and around the world) toward fresher, less demanding wines , often more compatible with new drinking styles and a growing awareness of alcohol, lightness, and immediacy. Regions historically associated with full-bodied reds risk paying a double price: declining demand and stagnant inventory.
3) Micro-denominations: many acronyms, little critical mass (and more vulnerability)
The appellation breakdown by size is a key point this week. The micro-appellations (under 10,000 hl) are:
- 70% of certified DOs , but
- only 2% of bottled volumes , and in 2025 they will be -7.2% (worse than average).
The dynamics by size range show that critical mass matters :
- 10–20,000 hl: 3%
- 20–50,000 hl: -4.7%
- 50–150,000 hl: 4%
- over 150,000 hl: -2.7%
Diagnosis: Micro-DOs struggle to cope with market fluctuations, costs, and commercial complexity. Having a name isn’t enough: you need a strong structure (a strong consortium, planning, promotion, and channels).
4) Production structure: hyper-fragmented at the base, concentrated at the top
The numbers confirm a sector made up of many small operators and very few large ones:
- over 75% of certified bottlers sell less than 65,000 bottles
- only 171 companies (3.2%) exceed 1.3 million bottles
- the first 5 operators bottle 18% of the total certified volumes, despite being 0.1% in number
Implication: competition is no longer just “product vs. product,” but increasingly an organized system vs. fragmented system . Small businesses must choose: either they become ultra-specialized and premium , or they merge (commercially or industrially).
5) The major industrial hub: stable production, but growing inventories
Here lies the “paradox” that is squeezing margins and financial serenity.
- 2025 harvest: 44.38 million hl (approximately 0.7% compared to 2024)
- Wine stocks: 61 million hl ( 6% per year)
- Wine and must stocks: almost 68 million hl ( 7.5% )
According to UIV, after two campaigns of just over 44 million hl, even these volumes are no longer sustainable if demand is not absorbed.
Where the surplus is concentrated:
- common/varietal wines: 11.3%
- White IGT: 10.5%
- DOP: 3.6% (more stable, but still increasing)
Immediate effect on the market:
- Cellar sales: -20% compared to 2024 peaks
- Bulk prices: weak, with common whites down over 10% in several areas
Brutal translation: more inventory = more idle capital = more pressure on prices and liquidity, especially for those operating in segments less protected by brands/names.
6) Exports and markets: relative stability, but the direction is still negative
The international picture remains complex. The aforementioned analyses (Nomisma Wine Monitor) report a 3% decline in the value of Italian exports , in a context where other competitors (Australia, Chile, France) are performing worse. It’s a “victory on points,” not a triumph.
On the US front and trade tensions, UIV reports:
- US shipments 2025 estimated -9% in value
- extra-EU around -6.5%
- many companies have reduced their price lists by ~10% to defend their shares (margins under stress)
At the same time, in the US alcohol market, wine is declining (-3.5%) , while ready-to-drink products are growing strongly (16.4%), i.e. simpler, cheaper and “immediate” to enjoy.
The underlying message: simply “being present” in traditional markets isn’t enough. We need to reallocate our energies to third-party markets , trade agreements (Mercosur/India), and a more aggressive and continuous presence on the markets.
7) Data, control and planning: TESSA and the new reporting system for Consortia
An often underestimated but strategic point: data quality becomes a competitive lever.
Valoritalia is pushing the TESSA platform (developed with Microsoft) to process the movements of over 90,000 companies across 219 certified denominations , and is introducing monthly reporting for Consortia with indicators on:
- sampling, bottling
- bulk sales/transfers
- downgrades/reclassifications
- analytical parameters, stocks, volumes
- socioeconomic indicators (members/non-members, concentration indices)
Why it matters: in 2026, those who know how to plan (supply, yields, inventories, channels) will win, not those who “suffer” the market.
What this week really tells us (in one sentence)
Italian wine enters 2026 with a supply chain that relies on organised quality , but must face an industrial challenge that cannot be postponed: too many inventories compared to demand , with the need for production flexibility, organisational consolidation and commercial repositioning .
The week of February 9–13, 2026, captures a sector moving on two parallel tracks: on one side, the global “showcase” (Olympics, major events, exports, and international promotion), on the other, the daily industrial reality of more selective consumption, pressure on margins, and a structural issue that is once again central: inventories.
In the meantime, a third, increasingly crucial route to business profitability is gaining ground: wine tourism, now seen as a countercyclical asset
1) Milan Cortina 2026: Prosecco DOC uses the Games as a global megaphone
The most symbolically powerful event of the week is the activation of the Prosecco DOC Consortium as the Official Sparkling Wine of the Milan Cortina 2026 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games, defined by the Consortium as the most important partnership in the history of the denomination , with the declared aim of bringing the Veneto-Friuli region before a global audience estimated at over 3 billion spectators .
The strategy is “capillary”, with the presence of:
13 race venues (family lounges) between Cortina, Milan, Val di Fiemme and Valtellina
6 Live sites / Fan villages (Milan, Bormio, Livigno, Cortina, Predazzo, Brunico)
Casa Italia (Milan Triennale, Cortina, Livigno) and related projects such as the “Musa” wine selection
a proprietary hub with high media impact: Prosecco Doc Sparkling Hub (a 600 m2 lounge in Milan’s San Babila area), designed for media and opinion leaders, with content that intersects haute cuisine, mixology, art, and technology.
Sixteen DOC companies involved in official activities are participating in the operational management, while the visibility campaign will reach strategic hubs (airports, ski resorts, tourist destinations) with very high exposure estimates (e.g., 23 ski lift stations and an estimated 6.6 million impressions ). Completing the plan: educational tours with operators and journalists from the USA, UK, Canada, Japan, China, and Germany, to transform the sporting event into a commercial and narrative bridge to the markets.
Key message: Prosecco DOC is pushing for a positioning that is not “just wine”, but territorial identity, a productive community, a global story , using the Olympics as an accelerator of reputation and demand.
2) Out-of-home consumption: 2.2 billion and a changing beverage market
On the domestic front, out-of-home consumption of alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages has returned to the pre-pandemic level of €2.2 billion . The most interesting data is not just the recovery, but the composition of this growth , which reflects a more “hybrid” consumer:
24% carbonated soft drink
alcoholic cocktails : purchases from 69 to 91 million (32%)
liqueurs and spirits : from 58 to 76 million (30%), with a 23% acceleration over the last year.
The “low & no alcohol” theme is firmly on the radar: non-alcoholic beers reach 49 million purchases (18% compared to 2025 and 79% compared to pre-Covid), and the system event Beer & Food Attraction 2026 (Rimini, 15–17 February) is positioning itself as an evolutionary observatory, with the debut of Mixology Attraction dedicated to spirits, cocktails, soft drinks and low/no alcohol products.
Implication for wine: competition for “consumption occasions” in the out-of-home market is growing. Wine must better address contemporary social gatherings (evolving aperitifs, smart pairings, more “dynamic” glasses), because growth is driven by alternative categories that are more agile and narrative.
3) USA: consumption in structural decline, Italy “holds up” thanks to three denominations – still
The US market continues to lose ground: wine consumption has fallen for the fifth consecutive year , with sales in distribution (horeca retail) down 7% in value and around 9% in volume .
In this context, Italy does better than average , but remains in the red:
Italian wine: -3% in value, -5% in volume
the denominations that support the estate are above all:
Chianti Classico (strong growth, 12% in value; in the other reading also 12% and 17.2% in volume)
Prosecco (approximately 3% in value; with growth in volumes as well)
Brunello di Montalcino (2% in value; with increasing volumes)
The rest of the basket shows widespread suffering (with explicit mentions of Moscato d’Asti, Pinot Grigio delle Venezie, and Valpolicella). The UIV analysis adds a crucial industrial point: the five-year decline should be interpreted as a coherent and structural phenomenon , aggravated by market saturation and inventory accumulation along the supply chain, with prices also affected by tariffs (a trend increase of around 4% in December) while producers have already “sacrificed” average price lists (quoted cuts of 10% in the six-month period).
Key message: In the US, wine isn’t “collapse” due to a single factor, but rather to a shift in the landscape: less automatic, more selective demand, and channels that absorb less inventory. Those who grow do so because they have a strong category (bubbles) or a denomination with a very clear premium identity .
4) Export and business models: the case of Edoardo Freddi International
In a period of global complexity (geopolitics, inflation, barriers), emerging players confirm that the issue isn’t “wine in crisis” in general, but rather the marketing model . Edoardo Freddi International closes 2025 with:
6% in value and 9% in volume
over 38 million bottles
presence in 112 markets , with a focus on Europe (approximately 45% of exports) and stability in the USA (indicated at -1% in their perimeter).
Among the trends cited for 2026: resistant/climate-adapted varieties, lighter and more gastronomic wines, and growing interest in no- and low-alcohol options . Also interesting is the “anti-obvious” approach to packaging/format: for example, the 500 ml Amarone in Denmark (a market with a high share of singles), to increase rotation and willingness to purchase.
Key message: you win not only with “good” wine, but with formats, channels, storytelling, and positioning designed around real consumer behavior.
5) Italy, large-scale retail trade: 2025 negative but not falling, bubbles bucking the trend
The large-scale retail channel remains central to volumes and shows a “resistance” dynamic:
2025 sales: 618 million liters ( -3.1% ), value 2.3 billion euros ( -0.5% )
average price: €3.77/litre ( 2.6% )
Within the general data, a polarization can be seen:
0.75 l bottle (including bubbles): 1.8 billion (0.2%) but volumes -1.9%
sparkling wines : 3.6% in value and 3.1% in volume , average price €7.29/litre (0.4%)
Market analysis: Large-scale retail trade emphasizes the “less quantity, more value where there’s desirability” mix. Sparkling wines remain the category that best captures social interaction and attendance.
6) Cantina Italia: high and concentrated stocks, with the North (and Veneto) at the forefront
The structural data that weighs on the bargaining power of companies is the snapshot of inventory:
as of January 31, 2026 : 60.9 million hectoliters in stock
2.4% on 31 December 2025 (1.4 million hl)
5.9% on 31 January 2025 (3.3 million hl)
Added to these are:
6.4 million hl of must
601,663 hl of VNAIF (new wine still fermenting)
Territorial and qualitative concentration:
56.8% of the stocks are in the North, with Veneto at 26%
53.5% of the stocks are DOP (32.5 million hl), 26.7% IGP (16.2 million hl)
strong concentration by denomination: 20 denominations out of 531 make up 58.5% of the GI stocks
Prosecco DOP accounts for 11.7% of stocks (5.7 million hl), followed by several significant IGP and DOC/DOCG wines (including Chianti DOCG 1.45 million hl).
Key message: Inventories aren’t just “a number”: they represent commercial pressure , promotional risk, and a brake on investment. Supply management (even with crisis measures) is once again a key issue for industrial policy.
7) Rules and Politics: EU Wine Package, Transparency on Alcohol-Dealcoholized Products and Crisis Levers
On the regulatory-institutional level, the week saw a strong push from the European Parliament towards a new package for the sector (broad approval: 625 in favour), with measures ranging from:
support for promotion in third countries (EU co-financing up to 60% )
Clearer definitions for dealcoholized wines :
“non-alcoholic” with the wording “0.0%” only up to 0.05% vol
“reduced alcohol content” for wines over 0.5% vol with a reduction of at least 30% compared to the origin
Recognition and support for wine tourism (projects up to three years, renewable up to nine)
uniform crisis measures, and the possibility of drastic interventions such as eradication in the event of a structural oversupply
25% cap on the national budget for crisis distillation and green harvesting.
Coldiretti emphasizes that simplification and transparency are steps forward, but that adequate resources are now needed to make the reform truly effective, noting the economic size of the sector (estimated turnover of €14.5 billion, 241,000 businesses, 681,000 hectares).
8) Wine tourism: countercyclical lever, potential 1 billion with more incoming visitors
Contrary to the slowdown in wine consumption, wine tourism continues to grow and is being described as a strategic asset . Key points that emerged:
Global wine tourism market: $46.5 billion , Europe at 51%
In Italy, the foreign component is still relatively low (around 32% ), with room for growth compared to other benchmarks
77% of companies have invested in wine tourism (2022–2024), with average investments exceeding 14% of turnover ; for 2025–2027, over half plan new investments (digital, sustainability, accessibility, quality of experience)
Each tourist presence generates over 150 euros of added value in the area (broad supply chain: catering, services, crafts, culture)
Estimate: with 5% international tourist presence, approximately 1 billion euros could be generated as an additional result.
The main obstacle remains fragmented governance (many non-integrated local actors), but there is a growing willingness to “work as a system” with public-private consortia for territorial marketing.
Key message: for many wineries, wine tourism is no longer “hospitality”, but a business unit : margins, direct sales, loyalty and deseasonalization.
9) Culture and communication: Cotarella pushes for an offensive and responsible narrative
In terms of public discourse, Riccardo Cotarella’s appeal stands out: enough defending ourselves, we need to make ourselves heard again . The key point is the distinction between moderate consumption and abuse, and the shift in international language toward “harmful use of alcohol” rather than generalized demonization. In this context, the Irish postponement of health labels is also cited as a political and cultural signal that “the issue is complex” and cannot be reduced to uniform messages.
Key message: Demand is rekindled not only by discounts or increased production, but also by cultural legitimacy , clarity, responsibility, and coordinated communication.
In 2026, Italian wine is entering a phase that is no longer cyclical but structural. The key is not the crisis itself, but rather the changing rules of the game.
As observers and leading international players have pointed out, “uncertainty is the new normal”: unstable markets, selective consumption, pressure on margins, and a growing gap between those who govern change and those who endure it.
Exports: record behind us, adjustment underway
2024 closed with an all-time high in Italian exports of €8.1 billion (up 5.5%) . However, 2025 saw a slowdown: -2.2% in value and -1% in volume , with a global scenario in which volume growth no longer guarantees value. Dependence on mature markets, primarily the US, exposes the economy to systemic risks (tariffs, inflation, and declining purchasing power). Hence the growing focus on new geographies: Mercosur and India are no longer theoretical options but mandatory trajectories, even if the implementation timelines remain long.
Prices and margins: the unresolved issue
Wine is suffering from an increasingly evident disconnect between price and perceived value. In key markets, particularly the United Kingdom and the United States, production, logistics, and bureaucratic costs are squeezing the trade’s profitability. The entry-level segment is shrinking, while the compression of margins is leading to reduced product assortments, lower investment, and job losses. Without a rethinking of business models, the “race for volume” risks turning into a systemic devaluation of the product.
US consumption: structural decline, Italy more resilient
In the United States—the world’s largest market by value—wine consumption is declining for the fifth consecutive year ( -8.8% in volume in 2025 ). Italy is holding up better than its competitors ( -5.2% in volume, -3% in value ), thanks primarily to sparkling wines. According to the Italian Wine Union , Prosecco remains the true driver, while denominations like Chianti Classico and Brunello maintain a defensive position. The structural trend is clear: in the US, people are drinking less wine, but they are seeking recognizable, consistent products that can justify their price.
Prosecco vs. Champagne: A Historic Watershed
2025 marks a symbolic and substantial leap forward: the Prosecco system surpasses Champagne in terms of market dynamics. While Champagne production has fallen to 266 million bottles, Prosecco approaches 800 million , embodying a model of “accessible luxury.” It’s not just a question of numbers: it’s a clash between two visions. On the one hand, defensive premiumization; on the other, the ability to interpret consumption, sociality, and immediacy. The market has chosen the latter.
Communication and the consumer: the real enabling factor
Wine isn’t rejected: it’s often poorly communicated. New generations are curious, but demand simpler language, immediate experiences, and authentic stories. The cultural and relational value of wine remains intact, but it needs to be revitalized with less self-referential communication and more connected to real life. In this sense, the new Italian institutional campaign on conscious consumption represents a significant political and cultural signal.
Overproduction and system under stress
The most critical data comes from the wineries: over 8 billion bottles in storage . This surplus fuels dumping, price pressures, and imbalances throughout the supply chain. The selection process has already begun: small, fragile producers, undercapitalized models, and confused positioning are at risk of being forced out of the market. This isn’t a collapse, but a fracture. And like any fracture, it redraws the perimeter of the survivors.
Strategic conclusion
Italian wine is not in decline, but in transformation. Those who manage inventory, margins, and positioning are the winners; those who invest even in difficult times; those who build value before even selling volume. 2026 will not reward inertia or nostalgia. It will reward industrial vision, product line clarity, market presence, and the ability to speak to today’s consumer. In an uncertain world, wine remains a powerful economic and cultural tool. Provided it is used wisely.