with updated useful insights as a basis for the wine/cellar sector:
Recent Key Trends (5–7 points)
- The 2025 harvest in Italy is expected to be around 47.4 million hectoliters , up 8% compared to 2024, with quality judged to be “excellent / good” (Unione Italiana Vini)
- Some denominations in central and northern Italy are reporting reduced yields (-10-20%) compared to the previous year, with the desired effect of rebalancing supply and demand.
- On Italian domestic markets, sales in the large-scale retail channel show 0.7% in value but –2.5% in volume (August 2024-July 2025) — sparkling wines are holding up better than the rest (1.9% value, 2.5% volume)
- In the first half of 2025, Italian wine exports recorded 1.5% in value but -3% in volume; the greatest difficulties are evident in the United States and Germany
- The uniform US tariffs of 15% for European wines (which came into force in summer 2025) put strong pressure on the entry and medium segments, in the absence of specific exemptions (valuation of premium wines)
- The EU-Mercosur agreement, now authorized by the European Commission (to be ratified by the Member States), provides for the progressive elimination of wine duties for Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay and Paraguay, with a potential strategic opening for Italian wine in Latin American markets.
- Globally, the bulk wine market appears “sluggish”: grape prices are struggling to recover, while stocks are high and demand is weak, penalizing negotiations for bulk and blended wines (Ciatti report September 2025)
- On the technological horizon, Artificial Intelligence is also gaining ground in sustainable viticulture and wineries, with applications in environmental monitoring, resource management and production process optimisation (study “Artificial Intelligence for Sustainable Wine Industry”, 2025)
- M&A Radar
| Operation / Rumor | Parties involved | Value (if known) | Geography / focus | Source / date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accolade Wines and Pernod Ricard Merger → Vinarchy | Accolade Wines & Pernod Ricard | not communicated | wide-ranging (Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, Spain) | official announcement 2025 |
| Italian wine operations in the Mediobanca report | various national wineries and operators | not available in the main cases | Italy | “M&A Strategies in Italian Wine: Mediobanca Report 2025” |
| (Rumor) Italian acquisitions in the US in 2025 | Italian wineries targeting the US | unspecified | United States | KPMG article “The Italian Presence and M&A in the USA” |
Prices & Harvest (mini-box)
| Region / variety | Grape price / reported trend | Notes on yield / performance vs last year |
|---|---|---|
| Italy (national average) | Grape prices do not show general increases: the market is “calm” and prices are still uncertain (in September 2025) | High cellar inventories: ~36 million hectoliters as of July 31, 2025 (potential drag on prices) |
| Tuscan denominations (Chianti, Langhe, Barbera) | There are no recent public quotations for specific varieties, but some consortia have approved yield reductions to protect value (e.g. Chianti from 75 to 65 quintals/ha). | In some areas (Morellino, Montecucco) yields are lower than initial estimates, with healthy grapes and good qualitative balances |
| International bulk market | Bulk wine and grape market prices show weakness and a tendency to stabilize at a low level; general increases are expected only if demand picks up again. | Oversupply and high inventories limit negotiations and the ability to obtain better prices. |
with updated useful insights as a basis for the wine/cellar sector:
Key news (5–7 points)
- In Italy, the 2025 harvest is estimated at 47.4 million hectolitres (8% compared to 2024), with quality ratings of “very good / excellent” in many regions.
- The first half of 2025 saw Italian wine exports record a decline in volumes (-3.0%) but a stability in values, thanks to a growing average price per litre (2.6%).
- In France, the Comité Champagne has reduced the maximum yield for the 2025 harvest to 9,000 kg/ha (approximately −10%) to contain excess stocks.
- The US/EU tariff environment continues to generate tensions: new protectionist measures are hitting entry-level European wines and redefining margins on US shelves.
- The bulk wine market is showing weakness: sluggish demand, high inventories, and difficulty generating attractive deals.
- Artificial intelligence is consolidating its role: predictive models, environmental monitoring, optimization of resources in the vineyard and cellar, and wine tourism management with automation are among the emerging applications.
- The Italian export voortrekkers are preparing for Vinitaly.USA 2025 in Chicago (October 5–6), with strong Italian participation and B2B meetings focused on pricing dynamics and brand positioning.
M&A Radar
| Operation / Rumor | Parties involved | Dimensions / Notes | Geography | Source / Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viva Wine Group acquires Delta Wines | Viva Wine Group (Sweden) → Delta Wines (NL) | ~ EUR 57 million for 89% of the shares | Europe, NL & Northern Europe distribution network | |
| Overshine Collective acquires Reeve Wines and Martha Stoumen | Overshine (holding company of former Google executive) → Sonoma wineries | Equity & brand operations (including festivals, labels) | California, USA |
Prices & Harvest (mini box)
- Italy (general) : estimated production 47.4 million hl (8% vs 2024) with good quality grapes.
- Veneto : grapes estimated at around 14 million quintals, 3–5% compared to 2024.
- Champagne : maximum yield reduced to 9,000 kg/ha (−10%) to contain stocks.
- Price trends : Italian exports recorded average prices rising (2.6%) in the first half of 2025, despite a drop in volumes.
- Harvest / Yield Notes : In Italy, the harvest started early almost everywhere. Some areas in central and northern Italy indicate possible drops of 10–20% in volumes, but the grapes will be healthy thanks to favorable weather.
with updated useful insights as a basis for the wine/cellar sector:
Key news (5–7 points)
- Heitz Cellar (Napa) ends exclusive grape purchasing from Martha’s Vineyard after 60 years, opening to outside vendors for the 2025 harvest.
- In Italy, the 2025 harvest is estimated at around 47.4 million hectoliters , 8% more than in 2024: the quality is defined as “very good / excellent” in many regions.
- US tariffs: A uniform 15% import tariff for European wines has been in effect since August 2025, particularly penalizing entry-level Italian wines.
- The use of AI in wineries and vineyards continues to gain ground: predictive analytics, environmental monitoring, and resource optimization are increasingly being applied.
- The bulk wine market is showing signs of slowing: high inventories and weak demand are depressing negotiations, especially for table wines.
- Vinitaly.USA 2025 in Chicago aims to strengthen Italian wine in the United States, riding the wave of growth in foreign markets despite tariff tensions.
- On the awards & rankings side: In the World’s Best Wine Lists Awards 2025 , the best wine lists globally have been announced.
M&A Radar
| Operation / Rumor | Parties involved | Details / dimensions | Geographical area |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heitz / Martha’s Vineyard | Heitz Cellar (Napa) Leaves Exclusive Purchase | it is not a sale of a company, but a change in procurement strategy | USA, California / Napa Valley |
Prices & Harvest (mini-box)
| Territory / variety | Grape price / trend | Notes / quantity collected |
|---|---|---|
| Italy (general) | 1% producer price index: 4% for white table wines, –2% for red DOC/DOCG (mixed trends) | Inventories are stable at July 31, 2025, compared to the previous year; the challenge will be finding commercial outlets for the surplus production. |
| Australia | Average prices falling in warmer regions (red/white varieties) | Estimated 2025 harvest: 11% higher than 2024 |
Trend vs. previous year : Table wines show more instability in the price lists, while DOC/DOCG wines have more independent and resilient dynamics. Weather/yield notes : In some Italian areas, ripening has slipped by 5-7 days; night harvesting used to preserve aromatic profiles.
with updated useful insights as a basis for the wine/cellar sector:
Relevant News & Trends (Latest Update)
- Italian wine production for 2025 has been revised downward: Legacoop reports lower-than-expected yields, with a final forecast of approximately 44 million hl, despite the grape quality being considered high.
- The harvest in Italy is more than 75% complete and some regions that had abundant production in 2024 are recording drops of 10-20%.
- In the US market, despite the drop in volumes, the value of the wine market is recovering: the Wine Market Report 2025 (BMO) reports a 4% share of sales value in the United States.
- The Vinitaly.USA 2025 initiative aims to consolidate the presence of Italian wine in the United States with 250 exhibitors and an export volume of 345 million liters in 2024 (US imports $2.25 billion).
- France has secured approval for a €5 billion aid plan to support wine exports to the US amid transatlantic tariff tensions.
- In the UK, Chapel Down winery has cancelled a £32 million project for a new winery, citing slowing domestic demand and the need to rein in investment.
- Artificial intelligence is gaining traction as a strategic tool for sustainability and efficiency: the study “Artificial Intelligence for the Sustainable Wine Industry” explores practical applications in viticulture, winemaking, and wine tourism.
M&A Radar
| Deal / Rumor | Parties involved | Size (if known) | Geographical area | Source / date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Acquisition of Tenuta Ulisse by White Bridge | Tenuta Ulisse, White Bridge Investments II | not disclosed | Italy, Campania | |
| Premium Consolidations and Acquisitions | wine operators/funds targeting quality assets | selective | Italy / Europe | |
| Chapel Down wine project cancelled | Chapel Down (UK) | approx. £32 million investment aborted | R |
Prices & Harvest (mini box)
- Yields in Italy are disappointing compared to initial estimates, suggesting a realignment of the supply-demand balance that is favorable to supporting prices.
- The production drops particularly affect regions that had had abundant production in 2024 (decreases of 10-20%).
- There is currently no recent public data available on spot prices for grapes or bulk wine, but the context suggests upward pressure for those who can guarantee quality and differentiation.
- Climatic phenomena (drought in the south, rain during the flowering phase in the north) have negatively affected yields, but not – for the moment – the quality of the grapes.