Wine Report of November 2 2025

Today’s wine and cellar trends

Key points

• The 2025 Italian harvest is estimated at around 47.4 million hl , 8% compared to 2024: good health of the grapes and generally high quality.
• Italian wine exports in the first half of 2025 grew by 1.5% in value (~€2.8 billion) and 2.1% in volume (~703.5 million liters). However, the US market is showing significant weakness, with conditions deteriorating in the second half of the year.
• The bulk wine market in Italy is showing signs of price pressure: despite declining volumes, value is holding up thanks to a slight increase in the average price (~€0.78/litre) but with evident oversupply.
• Grape prices in some Italian regions are dropping sharply: in Umbria, for example, Sangiovese 2025 is quoted between €26-30/quintal, Merlot/Cabernet between €28-30/quintal, while Sagrantino DOCG is recording much higher values (€100-140/q).
• Globally, innovation is also entering the wine sector: a recent study highlights how AI, sensors, and Industry 4.0 technologies are gaining ground in vineyards, production, and wine tourism.
• The regulatory/trade environment presents challenges: US tariff action, the strength of the euro, and Italy’s need to diversify its export markets (Asia, South America) are the order of the day.

M&A Radar

Prices & Harvest – Mini Box

• Italy 2025 harvest : ~47.4 million hl (≈ 8% vs 2024) Some regions choose to contain volumes (e.g. Tuscany 2.4 million hl compared to 2.7 million in 2024) to preserve quality.
• Grape prices :
  • Umbria: Sangiovese ~€26-30/100 kg; Merlot/Cabernet ~€28-30/100 kg; Sagrantino DOCG ~€100-140/100 kg.
  • Veneto/Vicenza DOC: DOC grapes approximately €40-60/quintal in 2025.
• Bulk wine market : In Italy, stable value (~€1.2 billion) despite a slight drop in volumes, average price ~€0.78/litre (2.1%) indicative of the segment.
• Weather/Quality Notes : Grapes generally healthy, high concentration, very good quality. However, drought risks persist in some areas (southern Italy).

Wineries, wines, and the general trend of Italian wine.

– Italy’s 2025 harvest : estimated 47.4 million hl (8% vs. 2024), good-excellent quality; Italy likely to be number one in volume. (Assoenologi-UIV-ISMEA, 10 September 2025 ).

– Italian exports 1st half of 2025 : picture “in precarious balance”: -0.4% in value, -3.1% in volume (Istat WineNews analysis, 11 September 2025 ); in the USA January-July -1.1% in value with falling price/litre ( 18 September 2025 ).

– Global scenario : OIV publishes focus on re-exports as a driver of global flows ( 9 Oct 2025 ). France cuts harvest estimate due to heat wave (36 mln hl, -1% y/y ) ( 7 Oct 2025 ).

– Regulation/Labeling : Ireland postpones health labels until 2028 (positive response from CEEV, July-October 2025 ). In the EU, e-labels/QRs for ingredients and nutritional information, introduced in 2024, remain in force.

– Awards & Ranking : At the Decanter World Wine Awards 2025, Italy obtains 6 “Best in Show” (including Terlano, Donnachiara, Donnafugata) ( 18 June 2025 ). At the International Wine Challenge 2025, the trophies and the English overtaking in the sparkling wines stand out ( May-Oct 2025 ).

– Finance/credit : CDP and Finint subscribe to minibonds for Feudi di San Gregorio (€5 million in total, 21 October 2025 ).

M&A radar (deal/rumor • parties • size • geography • source)

• Acquisition • CASTEL‑Vins → Tannico (originators: Campari & Moët Hennessy ) • nd • IT/FR • 20 Oct 2025 .
• Acquisition • Tenuta Ulisse → Montevetrano • nd • IT (Campania) • 19 Sep 2025 .
• Asset deal • Calmére Estate (Carneros, Napa) sold to Chinese investor • $16.8 million in cash • USA • mid-Oct 2025 / two weeks ago .
• Sale of brands (wine & vermouth) • Campari → Caffo 1915 ( Cinzano, Frattina ) • €100 million , closing expected by 2025 • IT • 26 Jun 2025 .
• Italy (Friuli) • Fossa Mala sells Cantina RR for use by Cantina Rauscedo (rental of branches and systems) • nd • 22 Oct / news 20h ago .

Prices & Harvest (flash)

Grapes 2025 (wholesale, €/kg, unless otherwise stated)

• Piedmont (Cuneo) : Nebbiolo Barolo 3.00–3.21; Barbaresco 1.91–3.39; Barbera d’Alba 1.00–1.34. (Latest update from the Chamber of Commerce portal; historical series, 2024 as the base; 2025 being surveyed).
• Piedmont (Alessandria-Asti, 9 October 2025, official price list) : examples: Moscato DOCG 1.10–1.25; Alta Langa DOC 1.40–1.70; Dolcetto 0.50–0.65.
• Umbria : Chamber of Commerce reports drop in grape prices of up to ‑30/‑33% vs 2024. ( 18 Oct 2025 ).

Bulk/bottled wines (origin)

• Doc/Docg ISMEA examples (September 2025): Nebbiolo d’Alba €170/hl ( -20.9% y/y ); Moscato bianco €147.5/hl (stable).
• Igp/Igt Italia (Sep 2025): whites €6.19/hectograde ( -2.6% m/m; 9.5% y/y ), reds/rosés €6.75/hectograde (stable m/m; -4.9% y/y ).
• Verona – Commodity Exchange (Oct 2025) : first Soave DOC and Garda Chardonnay prices; active weekly price lists.
• Global bulk market (Oct 2025) : Ciatti report points to still weak activity in several areas; price competition is high.

Inventory & Weather

• Italian inventories : 36 million hl as of 30 September 2025 (down vs. July).
• EU Weather : Heatwave in France impacts yields; Champagne bucks trend, Beaujolais hits multi-year lows. ( 7 Oct 2025 ).

Territorial focus: North-East vs South Italy

North-East (Veneto, Friuli-VG, Trentino-AA)

Positioning & Market Signals

• Veneto/Glera (Prosecco) : Chamber of Commerce surveys indicate Glera suitable for Prosecco DOC at €1.75–€1.85/kg ; Glera Bio at €2.00–€2.10/kg (22/08/2025, Padua Chamber of Commerce).
• National inventories : as of September 30, 2025, 36.0 Mhl of wine, 8.5 Mhl of must, and 4.6 Mhl of VNAIF ; inventories decreasing compared to July, but 1.3% y/y : indicates potential pressure on indistinct wines.
• Bulk : Brokerage reports point to a “slow” market; generic whites and Sauvignon/Pinot Grigio in some global regions perceived as “tight,” but 2025 availability still ample.

Risks/Opportunities

• Risk : oversupply in mainstream segments; margin compression if value is not protected.
• Opportunities : promoting organic/low-impact products, sustainable formats (e.g., premium bag-in-box for Northern European Horeca), reinvestment in hospitality and D2C.

Recommended actions (12 months)

1. Up-trading of the range : more single-village or sustainability-led cuvées to recover mixes.
2. Side-bet on Organic : lock-in of medium-term contracts on Organic Glera (€2.00–€2.10/kg) to occupy the premium sustainable shelf.
3. Channel : Push Northern Europe/UK with sustainable formats and storytelling; focus on Horeca and high-end private labels.

Southern Italy (Puglia, Sicily, Calabria)

Positioning & Market Signals

• Puglia : production estimate 17% vs. 2024; healthy grapes, good phenolic ripeness of the reds.
• Sicily : excellent prospects for quality and quantity; low disease pressure; potentially best harvest in the last four years.
• Grape prices (Umbria references, useful Central-Southern benchmark) : Sangiovese €26–30/100 kg , Merlot/Cabernet €28–30/100 kg ; Sagrantino DOCG €100–140/100 kg .

Risks/Opportunities

• Risk : local drought/water stress; price pressure if exports fail to absorb demand.
• Opportunities : Push for Mediterranean reds (Primitivo, Nero d’Avola) with a modern profile ; value-for-money positioning for price-sensitive markets in APAC/LatAm.

Recommended actions (12 months)

1. “Mediterranean Reds” line : 10–20k case batches with a fruit/spice profile, balanced alcohol, sustainable closures.
2. Selective large-scale retail contracts for better-quality private labels (UK/DE/NL) to absorb volumes without cannibalizing top labels.
3. Targeted Capex : Micro-irrigation, sensing, and canopy management for climate resilience.

Export playbook per channel

Asia-Pacific

Context & data

• Wine consumption in China remains depressed in the medium term; 2023 will be at a multi-year low (-24.9% year-on-year in demand), with reopening volatility; however, the greatest long-term opportunity remains “metropolitan clusters” .
• Mercosur : EU approval expected by the end of 2025 (political timing to be confirmed). For wine, this means progressive elimination of tariffs and a window of opportunity for growth in Brazil and Uruguay .

Operational moves

• China Tier-1/2 : Enter with an iconic entry-premium portfolio (giftability, IWSC/Decanter medal leverage), partnerships with specialized importers, and digital brand education .
• ASEAN (SG, VN, TH): focus on aromatic/sparkling white wines served cold and “fresh style” red wines.
• Brazil : Prepare pre-Mercosur records and compliance; use a logistics hub in Santos with a bottled/bulk mix for local re-bottling.

Americas

Context & data

• USA : July–August 2025 : -28% value on Italian wine imports, despite an average discount of ~-17% (15% tariff impact on EU wines).

Operational moves

• Barbell strategy :
  • Top-end (DOCG/IGT icons): preserve price, “allocations” for fine-dining clubs/restaurants;
  • Value-premium : Optimized SKUs in 6×750 cartons, targeted tactical promos, but avoid price wars .
• Direct-to-Trade : US B2B platforms for transparent sell-in to D2C business clubs (where legal).
• Risk : FX and logistics; minimum coverage and annual freight contracts .

Middle East

Context & moves

• GCC on-trade premium markets (hotels/restaurants) growing; demand for sparkling wines and iconic reds .
• Requires an accredited distributor and portfolio with legal clearance ; promote hospitality pairing and by-the-glass at 5-star venues.

M&A Recommendations (Buy-Side/Sell-Side) – “What to Do Today”

For those who buy (buy-side)

1. Target screening : D2C/e-commerce platforms (e.g., the recent Tannico case), distributors with cold chains and APAC/LatAm coverage; micro-brands with strong territorial identities .
2. Deal thesis : route-to-market synergies > short-term agricultural synergies.
3. Technical due diligence : agronomic KPIs (yield/ha, Brix level, phenolic stability), ESG (water/energy), digital readiness.

For those who sell/open to partners (sell-side)

1. Readiness file : traceability data, P&L by channel, LTV of club/D2C customers, inventories by year (consistent with Cantina Italia ).
2. Valorisation : Bio/SQNP certifications, international awards, wine tourism traffic, earned media .
3. Term sheet : include earn-out on mix margin and export KPIs (new post-USA markets).

Quick KPIs (for decision table)

• Export Italy H1-2025 : 1.5% value / 2.1% volume (≈ €2.8 billion / 703.5 million litres).
• USA two-month period Jul-Aug 2025 : -28% in value for Italian wine (15% duties).
• Italy 2025 harvest : estimated 47.4 Mhl , good/excellent quality.
• Glera Prosecco DOC : €1.75–1.85/kg (organic 2.00–2.10).
• Stocks (09/30/2025) : 36.0 Mhl wine (Italy).
• Puglia : Estimated production up 17% vs. 2024; Sicily : Improving quality and quantity.
• EU-Mercosur : ratification possible by the end of 2025 → progressive tariff opening in South America.

on the main news in the world of wine and wineries, with a strategic eye for those working in the sector.

Major updates

• Italian exports show mixed signals: in the first six months of 2025, Italy recorded an increase in value (1.5% to ≈ €2.8 billion) and in volume (2.1% to ≈ 703.5 million litres).
• On the US market, however, a dramatic decline is evident: in the months of July-August 2025, Italian wine exports to the USA fell by -28% in value compared to the same period in 2024.
• Harvest production in Italy is estimated at around 47.4 million hl for 2025, an increase compared to 2024.
• Grape prices in some regions are reaching new levels: for example, in Umbria, Sangiovese 2025 is valued between €26-30/quintal; Merlot/Cabernet between €28-30/quintal; and Sagrantino DOCG prices reach €100-140/quintal.
• The bulk wine market shows a certain balance: in Italy and globally, the value is substantially stable thanks to the increase in the average price (2.1% to €0.78/litre) despite a slight drop in volumes.
• M&A activity in the wine sector is slowing significantly: deals announced for 2025 remain marginal, and most operators are waiting for clearer terms. Innovation and sustainability remain crucial drivers: a recent study highlights how AI and sensors applied to vineyards, production, and wine tourism are becoming key drivers of competitive advantage.

M&A Radar

• Known deal: Castel-Vins (French group) acquires 100% of Tannico (Italian online wine and spirits platform, previously owned by Campari Group and Moët Hennessy) – announcement October 20, 2025.
  • Geography: Italy → France / digital wine distribution
  • Size: Not publicly disclosed
  • Note: This signals that digital distribution and the logistics platform are strategic targets, even more so than pure production assets.

Prices & Harvest – Mini Box

Harvest 2025

• National estimate Italy: ~47.4 million hl (8% vs 2024)
• Tuscany Region: 2025 production forecast of ~2.4 million hl, down from ~2.7 million hl in 2024 (quality production choice)
• Grape conditions: “extraordinary concentration and health” reported for some varieties in Italy.

Grape prices (some regions/varieties – Italy, updated to October 2025)

• Umbria: Sangiovese ~€26-30/100 kg; Merlot/Cabernet ~€28-30/100 kg.
• Umbria: Sagrantino DOCG ~€100-140/quintal.
• White Umbria: Trebbiano ~€22-26/100 kg; Grechetto ~€30-35/100 kg.
• Bulk wine average value in Italy: €0.78 per litre (~2.1% vs. previous period)

Trends & operational notes

• Despite good production, a surplus is looming in some areas – there is a risk of margin erosion if quality and differentiation are not addressed.
• In the bulk segment, oversupply is pushing for consolidation and the search for efficiency.
• For exports, the contraction towards the USA signals the urgent need to diversify markets and strengthen direct channels/premium brands.