Wine Report — November 6, 2025 (Italy & World)

Current wine trends in Italy and around the world.

Key points

• Italian wine exports in the first 4-5 months of 2025 show a decrease in volume (-3.4% in the 4 months) and in some cases in value (-0.9%) compared to the same period in 2024.
• The 2025 Italian harvest is estimated at around ~47.4 Mhl (8% compared to 2024) according to some sources, but more recent revisions lower it to ~44 Mhl; grape quality is reported as good-excellent, although there are meteorological uncertainties.
• The global bulk wine market records a slight decrease in volumes (-2.3% H1 2025 vs H1 2024), but value is substantially stable (-0.3%), supported by an increase in average prices to ~€0.78/litre.
• On the M&A and finance front, innovative instruments in the Italian wine industry are being developed. For example, Feudi di San Gregorio issued two tranches of bonds (total €5 million) for development and innovation, with a guarantee on the wine in stock.
• Innovation: Growing application of technologies such as artificial intelligence and remote sensing monitoring in viticulture, production, and wine tourism, as a strategic tool for differentiation and sustainability.
• Consumer wine prices in Italy: over the last ten years the increase has been limited (7.4%), among the lowest in Europe, highlighting a certain stability on the domestic consumption side.
• Exports to the US market and regulatory risks: exports to the United States, although growing in some segments, are surrounded by uncertainties regarding duties/tariffs and require a diversification strategy towards other markets.

M&A Radar

Prices & Harvest – Mini‐Box

Harvest 2025 (Italy):

• Initial national estimate ~47.4 Mhl (8% vs 2024).
• Most recent revision to ~44 Mhl, due to quantitative moderation.
• Some areas (e.g. Tuscany) have voluntarily reduced volumes to preserve quality: ~2.4 Mhl vs ~2.7 Mhl last year.
• Grape conditions reported to be very good: concentration, high health, favorable conditions in several regions.

Bulk grape/wine prices – Italy:

• Umbria: Sangiovese ~€26-30/100 kg; Merlot/Cabernet ~€28-30/100 kg. Sagrantino DOCG ~€100-140/100 kg.
• Veneto / Vicenza DOC: grapes ~€40-60/quintal (white/red DOC) according to data from early October.
• Bulk wine Italy: average price ~€0.78/litre (2.1% compared to the previous period) but downward pressure on volumes.

Current trends in Italian and world wine.

Key updates

• Italian wine exports from January to July 2025 show a slight decline: value -0.9% and volume -3.4% compared to the same period in 2024.
• European wine production saw a significant decline in Spain (~15% less, ~31.5 Mhl) while Italy stood at around ~47 Mhl and France at ~37 Mhl.
• The bulk wine market in Italy is currently relatively stable, but with signs of pressure due to high inventories and stagnant sales.
• On the innovation front: Research into the application of AI (artificial intelligence) in viticulture, production, and wine tourism highlights growing potential for cost optimization and sustainability.
• At consumer level, Italy has seen a very modest increase in wine prices over the last 10 years (7.4%), a sign of initial “resistance” from the medium-high segments of the sector.
• Under M&A/finance, targeted investments in the Italian wine sector persist: for example, the bond issue by Feudi di San Gregorio in Southern Italy.
• In the export channel, the USA is becoming a source of concern (tariffs, accumulations), and the need to diversify towards new markets with medium-long term strategic planning is essential.

M&A Radar

Prices & Harvest – mini box

• Grapes (Italy) : Umbria 2025, Sangiovese priced at €26-30 per quintal; Merlot/Cabernet €28-30/quintal; Sagrantino DOCG €100-140/quintal.
• Bulk wine market (Italy) : stable trend but with downward pressure due to high availability.
• Harvest 2025 (Italy) : preliminary estimate ~47.4 Mhl, but recent findings indicate a potential reduction towards ~44 Mhl due to climatic stress.

Today’s wine and cellar trends,

Highlights (in 6 points)

• Italian exports: US shock from 15% tariffs (effective August 1) – sales down 28% in value in July-August 2025 ; many manufacturers have cut their price lists by ~ 17% to limit the impact. UIV calls for support measures.
• Italy 2025 harvest : official estimates of ~47.4 Mhl and good to excellent quality; other supply chain readings converge between 44–47 Mhl (widening due to heterogeneous yields in the North/Central-South). Inventories as of September 30: 36 Mhl (-9.6% vs. July; 1.3% vs. y/y).
• France : 2025 output revised downwards to ~ 36–37.4 Mhl due to summer heat and drought; some districts (Beaujolais) at multi-year lows, Champagne slightly recovering.
• Spain : 2025 estimate drops sharply to ~31–32 Mhl (Copa-Cogeca/SeVi), with DOs such as Rías Baixas at historic grape records.
• Global trade : the OIV reports that re-export accounts for ~ 13% of flows (2018-23); wine trade accounts for 47% of world consumption.
• Rules & Labeling : OIV publishes the 2025 edition of the international labeling standard; in the EU, the implementation of ingredients and nutritional information via e-label continues, along with clarifications on tracking-free QR codes . In Italy, a national framework for dealcoholized wine has been established (prohibitions for PDO/PGI).

M&A Radar (closed 4/11/2025)

Prices & Harvest (flash to 4/11)

• GRAPES (€/kg) • Piedmont (AL–AT, 09/10) : Nebbiolo 1.00–1.35 ; Arneis 1.00–1.35 ; “non-varietal” 0.50–0.60 . • Cuneo (update of Chamber of Commerce portal) : Nebbiolo Barolo 3.00–3.21 ; Barbaresco 1.91–3.39 ; Moscato d’Asti 1.20–1.24 ; Barbera d’Alba 1.00–1.34 . • Prosecco – Treviso/BM and Condifesa : Glera DOCG indicative range 0.85–1.70 ; DOC 0.56–1.12 ; Superior organic; yields: DOCG 135 q/ha; DOC 180 q/ha .
• Bulk wine (€/L, Treviso BM – today) : Prosecco DOCG 2.55–2.75 ; Asolo DOCG 2.40–2.60 ; DOC 2.05–2.25 .
• Bulk (global) : Abundant supply in several basins; flexible negotiations pending the definition of EU harvest volumes and post-tariff US demand (indications from Ciatti/Global reports).
• Tuscany – indicative prices : 2022 bulk Chianti: €140–170/hl (Camera Firenze, 5/10); signs of correction on top DOCG grapes 2025 vs 2024 (BMTI analysis).
• Inventories : 36 Mhl as of 09/30/25 (−9.6% vs July; 1.3% y/y).
• Weather & Yields : In Italy, yields improved in Central and Southern Italy, but were more erratic in the North; in France, hot August conditions compressed volumes; in Spain, yields were revised downwards.

Markets & Channels

• USA : key market to contract for Italy in summer 2025 due to tariffs; attention to channel mix (on-trade more resilient than off-trade in some metropolitan areas) and targeted discounts.
• UK : Industrial restructuring (e.g., Chapel Down) signals caution regarding domestic demand for still wines; premium sparkling wines are more robust in large-scale retail trade.
• Awards & Lists : Wine Enthusiast ’s “ Top 100 Best Buys 2025 ” ranks 17 Italian wines among the best for quality/price (e.g. Moscato d’Asti 2024 Saracco #3).
• Trade structure : growing role of re-export hubs (value added through storage/bottling), useful for logistics and pricing strategies.

Regulation & Compliance (quick check)

• OIV 2025 label (updated international guidelines).
• EU e-label (Reg. 2021/2117) : mandatory ingredients and nutritional information; tracking-free QR code ; operational updates by 2025.
• Italy – (partially) dealcoholized wine : national framework 2025 with ban on PDO/PGI and labelling obligations (“dealcoholized / partially dealcoholized”).

Things to monitor (4Q25–1Q26)

1. Bulk price curves for Italy/Spain after the harvest closes and a possible post-Holiday US promotional relaunch.
2. Implementation of US tariffs and potential EU-US negotiations; impact on sparkling vs. still .
3. Capex/reorganizations in UK and AU (Chapel Down; “Vinarchy” in AU) as a litmus test of demand.

B2B content ideas for wineries/consortia

• “US Anti-Tariff Plan: How to Defend the 2026 Margin” – dynamic price lists, country/channel allocations, use of re-export hubs and FX hedging.
• “2025 Harvest Between 44–47 Mhl: Inventory Management and Cash Flow” – Levers for Grape, Blend, Bulk↔Bottle Contracts, D2C E-commerce, and Q1 Campaigns.
• “Risk-Free Label 2025: Operational Checklist for e-Labels & QR Codes” – requirements, privacy audits, content governance, and localizations.

Wine trends in Italy and around the world

Quick Briefing (Italy & the World)

• Italy’s 2025 harvest: estimated 47.4 million hl (8% higher than 2024) and “very good/excellent” quality; joint Assoenologi–UIV–ISMEA survey (10.09.2025).
• Italian exports H1 2025: moderate stability (1.5% value ≈ €2.8 billion; 2.1% volume ≈ 703.5 million l) ; but July–August in the USA −28% in value ; January–July in the USA −1.1% value with a falling price/litre. (11.09, 18.09, 30.10.2025).
• Cantina Italia (stock): 36 million hl present as of September 30, 2025 (-9.6% vs. July; 1.3% y/y) awaiting the new harvest. (October 31, 2025).
• Global scenario: in the first half of 2025, global exports will decline by 2.3% in value and 3.7% in volume (OEMV, 16.09.2025). France reduces its harvest estimate to 36 million hl (07.10.2025).
• Bulk wine: H1 2025 ~ 16.5 mln hl exported (−2.3% y/y) but value ≈ €1.2 bn (−0.3%) thanks to average price ~€0.78/l ( +2.1%) . (09.2025).
• 2025 grape prices: sharp drop reported in Umbria (Chamber of Commerce lists, local estimates); Sangiovese ~€26–30/q , Merlot/Cabernet ~€28–30/q , Sagrantino DOCG ~€100–140/q (18–31.10.2025). Vicenza/VR DOC indications ~€40–60/q .
• Innovation: Artificial Intelligence (vineyard monitoring, predictive irrigation, phenological/qualitative models, wine tourism) is a driver of efficiency and sustainability (2025 review).

M&A Radar

Prices & Harvest (flash)

Grapes (€/q unless otherwise stated):

• Umbria: Sangiovese 26–30 ; Merlot/Cabernet 28–30 ; Sagrantino DOCG 100–140 (general weakness vs 2024).
• Veneto/Vicenza (DOC): indicative range € 40–60 /q, with premiums for organic.

Bulk wines (at the origin):

• PGI Italia – ISMEA index (October 2025): mixed signals; white/red between ~€5.2–5.9 per hectograde , differentiated weekly/annual variations; Tuscan Sangiovese squares ~€7.75/hectograde (20.10.2025).
• Global bulk H1 2025: average price ~€0.78/l (2.1%); volumes down.

Harvest & climate:

• Italy: Estimated 47.4 million hl ; healthy grapes, high quality; some areas (Tuscany) cut yields to protect value ( ~2.4 million hl vs 2.7 in 2024).
• France: Estimated 36 million hl due to summer heat; impact on some regions/appellations.
• Italian stock: 36 million hl at the end of September: key variable for prices in the new campaign.