Wine Report of November 13 2025

(Focus on Italy, global coordination for winery/consortium decisions and M&A).

A no-frills operational briefing , updated as of November 13, 2025, to support strategic decisions in wineries, consortia, or M&A transactions in the wine sector (Italy, global coordinates). (Yes, nerd mode activated.)

1. Global situation

Production

• The Organisation Internationale de la Vigne et du Vin (OIV) estimates world production of ~232 million hectolitres (mhl) for 2025, 3% compared to 2024 but still approximately -7% compared to the five-year average.
• In Europe, France recorded its lowest harvest since 1957, Spain its lowest level in 30 years. Bucking the trend, Italy, thanks to favorable weather, is recording an 8% increase compared to 2024. Implications : low global volumes → potential rationalization of inventories / lower surplus → margin for price stabilization but also risk of cost/quality reduction in wines.

International Demand & Trade

• The global wine market is estimated to be worth around USD 231 billion in 2024. The CAGR for 2025-2030 is expected to be between ~4.6% and ~7.1%.
• Global trends: growing demand for premium wines, sparkling wines, organic wines, and experiential experiences (wine tourism).
• However, there are signs of a slowdown in consumption in some mature markets, and trade instability (tariffs, exchange rates). For example, the US market is becoming more volatile.

M&A and consolidation

• In the global landscape, the importance of after-sales operations is growing, along with the search for vertical efficiencies (vineyard→winery→brand), and digitalization/sustainability as evaluation drivers.
• In Italy specifically: the 2025 Mediobanca report notes that uncertainty (consumption, internationalization) has reduced M&A activity in 2024; there will be an almost complete absence of investment funds in the domestic wine segment. Implications : opportunities for strategic players with expertise and vision (like yours) to operate in selected targets, perhaps under more favorable conditions.

2. Focus Italy

Production and quality

• For Italy: 2024 production estimated at ~44.1 mhl (15% compared to 2023), still approximately -6% compared to the five-year average.
• For 2025: initial estimates indicate ~47.4 mhl (8% compared to 2024), but more conservative revisions indicate ~44 mhl. Grape quality is reported as “good-excellent,” but weather remains an unknown. For you (wineries/consortia/M&A) : pay attention to vintages and quality as value drivers. In M&A, evaluate the consistency of the potential quality harvest, not just volume.

Export

• In the first 4-5 months of 2025: Italian exports in volume -3.4% and in value -0.9% compared to the same period in 2024.
• In the first 6 months of 2025 (12 key markets): Italy 2.1% in volume and 1.5% in value, better than the global average (-1.3% volume).
• In July 2025: Italian exports down 3.4% in volume / 0.9% in value; the United States in sharp negative territory (tariffs, falling demand). Cellar inventories as of September 30: ~36 mhl (-9.6% vs. July, 1.3% y/y) → pressure on wholesale prices. Operational implications :
• US Markets: High Risk, High Exposure = Vulnerable.
• The sparkling wine segment (e.g. Prosecco) remains a beacon: for example, Italian sparkling wines increased by 10% in value in the first seven months.
• For M&A: targets with strong export resilience in secondary markets (Asia, Canada, Europe) become more strategic.

Domestic consumption & retail channel

• In Italy, large-scale retail trade: turnover ~€3.1 billion, 0.6% in value but -1.8% in volume.
• Food and wine tourism: The wine tourism market in Italy is expected to grow strongly, with a CAGR of ~8-9% in 2024-25. For you : the domestic channel is stable/slightly growing in value, but quality and experience (tourism, hospitality) must be emphasized as differentiating factors.

Product and consumption trends

• Obvious trends: indigenous wines, fresh whites, rosés, low-intervention wines, premium sparkling wines.
• The “premium” and “experiential” segment has greater margins and appeal in foreign markets.
• Sustainability, digitalization, and traceability are becoming entry criteria (including for acquisitions). M&A/strategy implications : focus on brands with a history, distinctive terroir, and certified sustainability; during due diligence, evaluate the level of digitalization, automation, and winemaking efficiency.

M&A in Italy

• The Italian sector is still fragmented, with deals tending to involve vertical integrators or regional mergers. Funds are very limited.
• Valuation of wineries with stable exports, recognized brands, and real estate assets (vineyards, cellars) that support added value. An operational tool for you : you can position yourself as a “trusted partner” for the selling entrepreneur, managing not only the economic valuation, but also the industrial, commercial, and positioning aspects, and coordinating professionals.

Main risks to monitor

• Weather/climate risk (frost, drought, hail) → production volatility.
• Tariff/commoditization risk in export markets.
• Slowdown in consumption in mature markets, new generations with different consumption (less volume, more experience).
• Pressure on margins if you don’t scale or differentiate.
• Valuations too high for “commodity” assets.
• Rising costs (energy, transportation, bottling) are compressing margins. For you : when evaluating your operation, consider a conservative 3-5 year scenario, stress test production margins, and risky exports.

3. Operational strategic recommendations

For wineries / consortia

• Strengthen premium/experiential positioning: tourism, hospitality, visit-&-stay, wine clubs, vertical events.
• Develop distinctive indigenous and terroir-driven brands: focus on innovation (low-intervention, whites, rosés, sparkling wines).
• Focus on production and digital efficiency: precision viticulture, traceability, sustainability. Reduce costs, improve quality.
• Diversify export markets: reduce excessive dependence on the US; strengthen markets in Canada, Asia (Japan, South Korea), and Central Europe.
• Inventory management and pricing: With global volumes compressed, monitor the inventory-sales balance to avoid discounting.

For M&A / acquisitions / divestitures transactions

• Ideal target: winery with a recognized brand, consolidated export presence, efficient productivity, well-documented real estate assets (vineyards, cellar), strong terroir/quality profile.
• In-depth due diligence on: historical production, year-to-year variation, quality indicators, profitability (EBIT margin), export mix and market risks, fixed/variable costs, debt, real estate/land assets.
• Evaluate scenarios: conservative baseline scenario (e.g., 5-10% drop in exports, bad year), and consider synergies (marketing, distribution, digital).
• Transaction structure: consider earn-outs, results-oriented tools to align seller and buyer, and integrate coordinating professionals (lawyers, tax advisors, and technicians) for a quick and clean closing.
• Post-acquisition: plan the operational “day 1” with brand integration, distribution channels, possible restructuring of the winery and cellar, and sustainable governance.

Timing and moment evaluation

• The current environment is favorable for strategic buyers with vision (fewer aggressive funds present, compressed volumes → potentially more reasonable valuations).
• However, don’t underestimate the climate/export risks. It’s better to move now with manageable targets rather than wait for major deals that could trigger competition and costs.
• Consortia: evaluate internal mergers to increase critical mass, efficiency, brand pooling, and cooperative exports.

Key KPIs to monitor

• Production (hl) per hectare, yield, quality (chemical-sensory analysis points).
• Export volume and value (% growth/decline, markets, price mix).
• Operating margin (EBIT) and net profit. In Italy, the margin improved by 0.5 percentage points in 2024 compared to 2023.
• Stock/cellar (mhl) and bottling level, bulk vs bottle.
• Brand awareness/premium positioning.
• Winemaking in the cellar – level of automation, sustainability, certifications.
• Tourism-experiential capacity (room occupancy, visits, e-commerce).

(Focus on Italy, global coordination for winery/consortium decisions and M&A).

Key updates

– In Europe, Copa Cogeca raises its production estimate for EU wine in 2025 to 145.5 Mhl (1% vs 2024), but still approximately ‑7.5% below the five-year average.

– In Italy, the joint estimate by Assoenologi / ISMEA / Unione Italiana Vini points to ~ 47.4 Mhl (8% vs 2024) with quality judged good-excellent; however, some industry sources report an “adjustment towards low forties”.

– Italian exports (Jan-Jul 2025): value -0.9% / volume -3.4%. In the USA, due to 15% tariffs, a decrease in value of approximately -28% in the two-month period July-Aug.

– Italian stocks as of 09/30/2025: approximately 36 Mhl , -9.6% compared to July but 1.3% on an annual basis → signals residual stock and potential pressure on bulk wine and generic grape margins.

– In global wine trade H1 2025: value 2.3%, volume 3.7%. The “bulk wine” segment held up better: 0.3% in value and estimated average price ~€0.78/L (2.1%).

– On the regulatory front: the EU will require mandatory ingredients and nutritional information for wine starting in December 2023, with the option of e-labeling/QR; the OIV has updated its 2025 standards on practices and labeling; in Italy, decrees of 20/12/2024 and 14/05/2025 regulate the production of (partially) dealcoholized wine and its use in mixed-use premises.

– Speaking of awards, Wine Enthusiast’s “Top 100 Best Buys 2025” ranking includes 17 Italian labels , with brands like Saracco and La Raia in the Top 10, strengthening Italy’s quality/price positioning in the premium segment.

M&A Radar

Prices & Harvest

• Italian Grapes (examples, October price lists): Sangiovese ~ €26-30/q ; Merlot/Cabernet ~€28-30/q; Sagrantino DOCG ~€100-140/q. Trend: ~30% y/y; in some cases up to 50% vs. 2023; with the exception of Trebbiano Spoletino, which is rising sharply due to scarcity.
• Global bulk wine H1 2025: average price ≈ €0.78/L (2.1% vs previous year) in a context of weak trade and cautious demand.
• Italian stocks as of September 30, 2025: ~36 Mhl; estimated harvest ~47.4 Mhl (quality declared good/excellent) but risk of reductions in some areas due to weather/yield; in France, the harvest forecast is ~36.2 Mhl, influenced by heat waves and summer drought.
• Implications: pressure on bulk and generic grape margins, opportunities for premium segments and labeling/packaging innovation.

(Focus on Italy, global coordination for winery/consortium decisions and M&A)

Key updates

• At European level, Copa‑Cogeca has estimated EU wine production for 2025 at 145.5 Mhl , up 1% compared to 2024 but still ‑7.5% below the five-year average .
• In Italy, the combined estimate by Assoenologi-ISMEA-Unione Italiana Vini is 47.4 Mhl (8% compared to 2024) with quality rated good/excellent; however, some industry sources report a potential adjustment towards the “low-forties”.
• On the export front, Italy recorded a decrease for the period January-July 2025: -0.9% in value / -3.4% in volume . In the United States, due to the 15% tariffs, a decrease in value of approximately -28% was recorded in the two-month period July-August.
• Stocks in Italy as of September 30, 2025 amount to approximately 36 Mhl , with a decrease of -9.6% compared to July but still 1.3% on an annual basis: this implies pressure on bulk and on the margins of more generic grapes.
• Globally, wine trade in the first half of 2025 recorded a -2.3% in value and a -3.7% in volume , while bulk wine filter held up better with a -0.3% in value and an estimated average price of around €0.78/L (2.1%).
• On the regulatory front, the EU has already mandated the inclusion of ingredients and nutritional information for wine (with the option of e-labeling/QR) since December 2023. The OIV has updated its 2025 standards regarding practices and labeling. In Italy, the decrees of December 20, 2024, and May 14, 2025, regulate the production of (partially) dealcoholized wine and its use in mixed-use premises.
• In terms of market recognition, Wine Enthusiast’s “Top 100 Best Buys 2025” ranking includes 17 Italian labels , with brands such as Saracco and La Raia in the Top 10, strengthening Italy’s “value for money” positioning in the premium segment.

M&A Radar

Prices & Harvest (mini-box)

• Grape varieties in Italy (e.g., Umbria, October price lists): Sangiovese €26-30/q; Merlot/Cabernet €28-30/q; Sagrantino DOCG €100-140/q. Trends: -~30% y/y , in some cases up to -50% vs 2023 ; the only exception is Trebbiano Spoletino, which is rising sharply due to scarcity.
• Global bulk wine H1 2025: average price ≈ €0.78/L (2.1% vs previous year) in a context of weak trade and cautious demand.
• Italian stocks: ~36 Mhl as of September 30; with an estimated 2025 harvest of ~47.4 Mhl (quality declared good/excellent) but with a risk of reductions in some areas due to weather/yield.
• France: Harvest forecast ~36.2 Mhl, influenced by heat waves and summer drought which are limiting both volume and qualitative uniformity.

Daily report – November 7, 2025 on the world of wine (Italy & global), designed for those who lead operations in wineries/consortia .

Key updates (links & dates)

• 2025 EU harvest estimated at 145.5 Mhl (1% y/y): Italy leader ~47 Mhl (8%) , France ~37 Mhl, Spain ~31-32 Mhl. (Copa-Cogeca, 02.11.2025 ).
• Italian wine exports in the first half of 2025: uneven growth across markets; Japan, Australia, and Brazil, signs of caution in the UK, France, and Australia; overall picture slightly slowing. (Nomisma – Promos Italia, October 1, 2025 ).
• Italian stocks as of September 30, 2025: 36 Mhl (-9.6% vs. July 31; 1.3% y/y) – potential pressure on bulk prices. (ICQRF “Cantina Italia”, October 10, 2025 ).
• Global bulk wine H1-2025: volumes -2.3% and value -0.3% vs. H1-2024; average prices slightly up (~ €0.78/L ). (Summary of international broker reports; Winenews on Ciatti’s “Global Market Report,” July 21, 2025 ).
• EU labelling rules (ingredients & nutritional information via e-label/QR) fully applicable from 08.12.2023 : operational confirmations 2025. (EU Commission – DG Agri, regulatory page).
• Awards/Rankings : Wine Enthusiast “ Top 100 Best Buys 2025 ” – 17 Italian labels on the list (including Saracco and La Raia in the Top 10), 09.22.2025 .
• Innovation : Growing adoption of AI & remote sensing for viticulture/production/wine tourism (2025 trend confirmed by literature and use cases).

M&A Radar (last month)

Prices & Harvest – mini box

Grapes 2025 (examples Italy)

• Umbria : Sangiovese €26–30/q , Merlot/Cabernet €28–30/q ; Sagrantino DOCG €100–140/q . Sharp drops of ~30% y/y (-40/-54% vs 2023). Sources: Chamber of Commerce/ANSA, 18–19.10.2025 .

Bulk wine / Prosecco (Treviso-Belluno Commodity Exchange) – survey 04.11.2025

• DOCG Conegliano-Valdobbiadene €2.35–2.55/L ; ‘Rive’ €2.45–2.65/L ; Cartizze €5.00–5.50/L ; Asolo DOCG €2.25–2.40/L . Trend: stable; market inactive .

Stocks & Returns

• National stocks : 36 Mhl as of 09/30/2025 (-9.6% vs July; 1.3% vs y/y).
• Italy 2025 harvest : initial estimate ~47.4 Mhl (Ismea-UIV-Assoenologi), with good/excellent quality ; some operators report possible volume reductions. (updated 03–04.11.2025).