Wine Report of November 17 2025

Here’s a concise and actionable update for the wine sector, useful for guiding strategic decisions about acquisition, divestment, or positioning.

Bullet points

• Italian wine exports in the first eight months of 2025 recorded a decrease of -2.9% in volume (≈ 1.37 billion litres) and -1.9% in value (≈ €5 billion) compared to the same period of the previous year.
• In the first half of 2025, according to the report of the 12 main international destinations, Italy recorded a 2.1% growth in volume and 1.5% in value for wine exports.
• The global wine market is experiencing a decline in consumption and production volumes to the lowest levels in decades: the crisis in numbers is being offset by selective growth in premium wines.
• At a technical/production level: for bulk wine in Italy, in 1H 2025, indicative average price ~ €0.78/litre (2.1% compared to the previous period) but with weak demand.
• For the 2025 Italian harvest: initial estimate of ~47.4 Mhl (8% vs 2024), but some revisions bring the forecast towards ~44 Mhl; overall quality is reported as “good-excellent”, but weather uncertainties and supply/demand imbalance risks persist.
• In the technological and digital fields: an academic study highlights how AI (machine learning, computer vision) is emerging as a strategic lever in viticulture, production, and wine tourism.
• A significant M&A transaction: Groupe Castel (via its subsidiary CASTEL‐Vins) has acquired 100% of the Italian wine e‑commerce platform Tannico, previously controlled by Campari Group and Moët Hennessy.

M&A Radar

Prices & Harvest

• Average price of bulk wine in Italy (1H 2025): ~ €0.78/litre , 2.1% compared to the previous period.
• Grape prices in some areas: for example, in Veneto/Vicenza for DOC grapes ~ €40-60/q.– (higher organic premiums) and in Pavia Barbera DOP ~ €48/q (range €40-55/q) – generally downward trend compared to previous years.
• Italian stocks: as of October 31, 2025, wine stocks ~ 44.5 Mhl (23.8% compared to September 30, 2025; 5.2% vs. October 31, 2024) – signals potential overaccumulation.
• Italy 2025 harvest: initial estimates ~47.4 Mhl (8% vs 2024) but revised to ~44 Mhl; quality reported as good–excellent but be wary of weather and demand.

Here is the updated briefing for the wine sector (Italy globally), designed for acquisition, sales, and positioning operations.

Key points

– Italian wine exports in the first six months of 2025 recorded an increase in volume (2.1%) and value (1.5%), reaching approximately 703.5 million litres and a turnover of €2.8 billion.

– The international bulk wine market shows a slight contraction in volume (-2.3% in 1H 2025 compared to 1H 2024) but stability in value thanks to an increase in average prices of 2.1% (around €0.78/litre).

– The 2025 Italian harvest is initially estimated at around 47.4 Mhl (8% vs 2024), but some revisions update the forecast to around 44 Mhl. General quality is reported as “good-excellent”, but with concerns linked to weather conditions and possible supply/demand imbalances.

– In the M&A sphere, the French group Castel Vins has acquired 100% of the Italian platform Tannico, previously owned by the Campari Group and Moët Hennessy.

The 2025 report on the Italian wine industry highlights pressures on domestic and international consumption: changing patterns, growing competition, and the urgent need to transform quantity into value.

– Growing focus on innovation: A 2025 study shows how AI (machine learning, computer vision) is emerging as a lever in viticulture, production, and wine tourism to improve sustainability and efficiency.

– Exports to the USA are showing signs of weakness: although Italy remains the leader in foreign wines, the average price per liter in the USA is declining, and tariff/metropolitan barriers are pushing for market and channel diversification.

M&A Radar

Prices & Harvest (mini-box)

• Average price of bulk wine in Italy : ~€0.78/litre, 2.1% compared to the previous period.
• Italy 2025 harvest : initially estimated at ~47.4 Mhl (8% vs 2024) with some revisions towards ~44 Mhl; good/excellent quality but with regional variability.
• Trends and weather/market note : Estimated production increases, but bulk market under pressure in some areas; innovation may be needed to avoid downward competition.

Here is the updated briefing for the wine sector (Italy globally), designed for acquisition, sales, and positioning operations.

Key points

• Wine imports into Belgium are expected to grow by 16.8% in volume in 2025, with the average price dropping to ~€3.51/litre.
• Italian wine exports in the first six months of 2025 recorded 1.5% in value (≈ €2.8 billion) and 2.1% in volume (≈ 703.5 million litres).
• Global wine trade in H1 2025 shows a decline: -2.3% in value, -3.7% in volume. The bulk wine market: in Italy, the average price was approximately €0.78/liter, down 2.1% compared to the previous period, but with high inventories (~36 Mhl) and weak demand.
• The 2025 harvest in Italy is estimated at around ~47.4 Mhl (8% compared to 2024) but more prudent revisions bring it to ~44 Mhl; “good-excellent” quality, but climate and yields are arousing concern.
• In the fine wine segment and in the luxury channel, global demand remains solid: the fine wine restaurant market is estimated at ~€58 billion in 2024.
• Innovation enters the vineyard and the cellar: an academic study highlights the growing use of AI, remote sensing, and digital management for sustainability, efficiency, and competitive advantage.

M&A Radar

Prices & Harvest (mini-box)

• Average price of bulk wine in Italy : ~€0.78/litre (2.1% vs previous period)
• Stockpiles in Italy : ~36 Mhl as of September 30, 2025, slow reductions and strong pressure on margins.
• Italy 2025 harvest : estimated ~47.4 Mhl (8% vs. 2024) but possible revisions to ~44 Mhl. Quality reported as “good-excellent”; climatic conditions (heat waves, irregular rainfall) to be monitored.

Here is the strategic update for November 14, 2025, on the wine sector (Italy & globally), designed for acquisition, sale, and positioning operations.

Key points

• The Organisation internationale de la vigne et du vin (OIV) estimates world production in 2025 at around 232 million hl , 3% compared to 2024 but still around ‑7% compared to the five-year average.
• In Italy, the 2025 harvest is estimated at around ~47.3 million hl , 8% compared to 2024 and once again at the top of the world, ahead of France (~35.9 Mhl) and Spain (~29.4 Mhl).
• The fine wine market is showing signs of strength: in October 2025, Italian labels represented 19.4% of the trading volume on the Liv-Ex platform, with the Italy 100 index growing by 1.3%.
• Italy’s export market in the first months of 2025 shows a modest improvement: 1.5% in value in the first six months compared to 2024 for the 12 key markets, and 2.1% in volume (703.5 million litres) — but with strong geographical differences (USA, UK, China in decline).
• Bulk wine prices in Italy: average bulk market price ~€0.78/litre (2.1% compared to the previous period) but with weak demand and high inventories (approximately 36 Mhl of stock as of 30 September).
• Innovation: The growing application of artificial intelligence (AI) and remote sensing in viticulture and business management is an indicator of industrial evolution and a key factor in operations.
• The M&A factor remains active but requires vision: in Italy, pressure on costs, international consumption, and limited growth make wine assets selective for strategic transactions, not for pure volume acquisition.

M&A Radar

Prices & Harvest

• Umbria Grapes (October 2025): Sangiovese ~€26-30/100kg; Merlot/Cabernet ~€28-30/100kg; Sagrantino DOCG ~€100-140/100kg. Trend: -30% year-on-year to -50% vs. 2023.
• Bulk wine Italy H1-2025: average price ~€0.78/litre (2.1% vs previous period), but demand under pressure and high stocks (~36 Mhl in stock as of 30/9).
• The quality of the 2025 harvest in Italy is estimated to be good-excellent, but beware of high yields in some areas that may require positioning and differentiation interventions.