Wine Report of November 22 – 2025

Daily wine & cellar briefing.

Flash updates (Italy and the world) – 5–7 key points

• World production still below average, Italy returns to “top of the class.” Initial OIV estimates for 2025 indicate 232 Mhl (range 228–235), 3% vs. 2024 but ~7% below the five-year average due to repeated climate shocks. France is at its lowest since 1957, Spain at its lowest in 30 years, while Italy grows by around 8% and returns to the world’s leading producer .
• Italy: 2025 harvest growing but “warehouse full” Assoenologi–Ismea–Uiv estimate a harvest of 47.4 Mhl (8% vs 2024) , quality defined as good/excellent , which adds to estimated stocks of 36–37 Mhl in the cellar : the equivalent of almost two vintages at the start of the campaign, with pressure especially on IGP and generic wines.
• Prices: very differentiated grapes, still bulk but weak year-on-year
  • Northern Italy grapes : in Piedmont (Cuneo Chamber of Commerce) Nebbiolo for Barolo is priced at €2.42–€2.71/kg , Barbaresco at €1.71–€2.16/kg , Moscato for Asti/Moscato d’Asti at €1.15–€1.21/kg , Barbera d’Alba at €0.90–€1.18/kg .
  • Veneto/Lombardy : BMTI records a decrease vs 2023 for Amarone grapes (-13%), Valpolicella (-8%) and Prosecco Conegliano-Valdobbiadene (-9%), bucking the trend for 5% Franciacorta and 7% Lugana .
  • Central-Southern Italy : price lists cited as of 12/10 show Sangiovese ≈26-30 €/q , Merlot/Cabernet ≈28-30 €/q , Sagrantino DOCG ≈100-140 €/q , often 30% year-on-year for some premium denominations.
  • Bulk : ISMEA data indicate an average of €4.15–€4.50/hectograde for common reds and €5.36/hectograde for whites, stable week on week but, for some items, up to -20% vs 2024 ; at a global level, average bulk is €0.78/L (2.1% vs previous year) with weak trade .
• Exports & Demand: More Value Than Volume, Highly Polarized Trade The OIV report for 2024 confirms Italy, Spain, and France at 55% of global volumes and 63% of global value , with Italy returning to growth in 2024 ( 3.2% ABV, 5.6% value , driven by sparkling wine). At the same time , re-export hubs are emerging (≈13% of global exports), Champagne exports are declining (-9.2% in 2024) , and Australia’s premium market is seeing a strong rebound in China (41% export value, average price €23/L), amid declines in traditional markets.
• M&A: strong activity in premium and tech brands and US outlets. In Italy, 2025 will see Tenuta Ulisse (White Bridge) acquire Montevetrano (high-end Campania) after its acquisition of Cirelli, building a central-southern hub for premium wines; the Fantini Group (Platinum Equity) will acquire the Spanish company Venta la Vega ; in Piedmont, the Tellus project will invest ~€20 million, acquiring Cascina Alberta and Cascina Cà Rossa in the Langhe–Roero region; the Argea group will also become a US importer with the acquisition of WinesU . In the US , WarRoom Cellars will acquire the historic SIMI brand, while in Greece , Kir-Yianni will acquire Domaine Sigalas in Santorini.
• Rules & Labels: Increased Compliance and Digitalization, Risk of Fines Following the mandatory introduction of ingredients, nutritional values , and environmental information on packaging (end of the EU transition period), 2025 will see a stronger focus on digital labels (QR) and correct environmental labeling: specialist portals and a recent legal webinar remind us that errors can lead to fines of up to €25,000 , prompting wineries to completely revise their graphics, QR codes, and back labels.
• Awards & Innovation: Italy Highly Visible in Rankings, Wine Tourism & Tech Boom. Wine Spectator has published its Top 100 2025 (Italy is once again strongly represented, after GD Vajra’s 2020 Barolo Albe entered the Top 10 in 2024); Wine Enthusiast dedicates its “Top 100 Best Buys 2025” to 17 Italian labels (Saracco, La Raia, etc.), confirming their quality/price positioning. Meanwhile, the Performant Capital fund has entered Wine Suite , an Italian CRM already adopted by over 500 wineries, to create a global wine-tech platform; a Fine Italy survey reports that 77% of Italian wineries have invested in wine tourism in the last three years , and are planning further investments in sustainability and hospitality; on the green architectural front, the new Quinta de Adorigo in Douro (Portugal) is becoming a benchmark for a low-energy winery integrated into the landscape.

M&A Radar – Wine & Cellars (Focus on Recent Months)

Mini box “Prices & Harvest”

Harvest 2025 – Italy & the world

• Italy
  • Estimated production 47.4 Mhl (8% vs 2024), medium-high quality, with some downward corrections possible in areas affected by heat and drought.
  • Pre-harvest inventories ≈ 36–37 Mhl : the central theme for 2025-26 is stock management rather than production capacity.
• World
  • OIV: 232 Mhl (3% vs 2024 but -7% vs 5-year average), third consecutive year below average for extreme weather events (drought, torrential rain, frost).

Grape prices – snapshot 2025

• Piedmont (Cuneo, €/kg) :
  • Nebbiolo for Barolo 2.42–2.71 ; Nebbiolo for Barbaresco 1.71–2.16 ; Moscato for Asti/Moscato d’Asti 1.15–1.21 ; Barbera d’Alba 0.90–1.18 .
• Veneto/Lombardy (changes vs 2023) :
  • Amarone/Recioto ‑13% , Valpolicella ‑8% , Prosecco Conegliano-Valdobbiadene ‑9% ; bucking the trend Franciacorta 5% , Lugana 7% .
• Central-Southern Italy (2025 price list examples) :
  • Sangiovese ~26‑30 €/q , Merlot/Cabernet ~28‑30 €/q , Sagrantino DOCG ~100‑140 €/q , with increases of up to 30–50% vs 2023 in some niche denominations.

Bulk wine prices

• Italy – at the origin
  • Common reds/rosés: ≈4.15–4.50 €/hectograde , stable week on week, with significant drops in some items compared to 2024 (even -20% ).
  • Common whites: ≈5.36 €/hectograde , stable, with more limited corrections (-4% year-on-year).
• Global Bulk
  • H1 2025: average price ≈0.78 €/L , 2.1% annually but with weak traded volumes: cautious demand, use of price more as a lever for customer selection than for volume growth.

Here’s an operational update on the wine sector (Italy & globally) updated as of November 20, 2025, designed to support acquisition, divestment, and industrial positioning decisions.

Key points

• The OIV reports that world production in 2025 is estimated at around 232 Mhl, -7% compared to the five-year average , despite a slight recovery compared to the 2024 minimum.
• In this context, Italy stands out: production forecast for 2025 is approximately 47.4 Mhl , or 8% vs 2024, and approximately 2% compared to the five-year average.
• Italian exports in the first six months of 2025 recorded a 2.1% increase in volume and 1.5% in value (approximately 703.5 million liters / €2.8 billion) according to data updated to November 16.
• The bulk wine market confirms a decreasing volume (~‑2.3% in 1H 2025 vs 1H 2024) but a stable/slightly increasing average price (2.1% up to ~€0.78/litre) thanks to quality and supply-demand balance.
• Italian stocks remain a risk factor: increasing production, previous stocks, stagnant consumption in mature markets → potential pressure on margins of generic wines.
• M&A activity in the wine sector is still low: there is a shortage of buyers, a surplus of sellers, and a focus on strategic deals rather than pure size.
• Ranking and awards: In The World’s Best Vineyards 2025 ranking, Italy already has six companies between positions 51 and 100, confirming the centrality of “territory experience” as a premium lever.

M&A Radar

Prices & Harvest

• Italian production in 2025 estimated at ~47.4 Mhl (8% vs 2024), with possible revisions towards ~44 Mhl. Quality reported as “good-excellent”.
• Grape/bulk wine prices in Italy: for example in Umbria: Sangiovese ~€26-30/100 kg; Merlot/Cabernet ~€28-30/100 kg; Sagrantino DOCG ~€100-140/100 kg.
• Average price of bulk wine at national level: ~€0.78/litre (bulk), 2.1% vs. previous period, but volumes are decreasing.
• Agronomic notes: early harvest in many areas (due to heat/early ripening), very healthy bunches in most Italian regions.

(Italy & the world – for acquisition, divestment, and positioning decisions).

Key points

• In Italy, the 2025 harvest is estimated at around 47.4 Mhl (8% vs 2024) according to Assoenologi-UIV-ISMEA, with good-excellent recorded yields.
• However, the OIV reports that global production is estimated to be lower than the five-year average for 2025, with Italy being a positive exception in the global panorama.
• The bulk wine market in Italy maintains a stable average price of around €0.78/litre (2.1% on the previous period), but with decreasing volumes and already high stocks.
• Italian exports show selective growth: in the first half of 2025 the value marked 1.5% and the volumes 2.1% for the main destinations, but with a deterioration in the average price, especially towards the USA.
• Inventories in Italy represent an “elephant in the room”: surplus inventory combined with increasing production generates strong pressure on the generic and low-value segments.
• On the M&A and financial instruments front, the use of innovative instruments (e.g., guaranteed bonds on wine stocks) by Italian wine companies is growing.
• The strategic context suggests that value today is created more on the digital asset, the channel, quality and premium exports rather than on pure volumetric growth—a crucial shift for those operating in acquisitions/divestitures.

M&A Radar

Prices & Harvest – Mini Operational Box

• Sangiovese grapes in Umbria: ~€26-30/100 kg; Merlot/Cabernet ~€28-30/100 kg; Sagrantino DOCG ~€100-140/100 kg (October data)
• Veneto/Vicenza DOC grapes: ~€40-60/quintal for white/red (October data)
• Bulk wine in Italy: ~€0.78/litre (2.1% on the previous period) but a less active market and weak trade.
• Italian production 2025: approx. 47.4 Mhl (8%), but cautious revision towards ~44 Mhl in some readings.
• Operational note: With high inventories and production growth, careful inventory management and segmentation (premium vs. generic) are required to avoid margin erosion.

(Italy & the world – for acquisition, divestment, and positioning decisions).

1. Key points 2025 (snapshot)

• Production & Harvest Italy 2025
  • Joint estimate by Assoenologi–Ismea–UIV: 47.4 Mhl (8% vs 2024), a vintage defined as “excellent” in terms of quality.
  • Alternative reading Legacoop: more conservative estimate ~44 Mhl , considered more realistic with the harvest almost completed.
• Inventory: The Real Elephant in the Room
  • As of October 31, 2025, Italian warehouses recorded 44.5 Mhl of wine (almost an entire harvest), 23.8% vs. September 30 and 5.2% vs. October 31, 2024 .
  • Over 62% of stocks are in the North → strong risk of pressure on bulk and generic DOCs.
• Bulk wine: prices holding up, demand not
  • Global bulk market H1-2025: stable values (-0.3%) with average price ~0.78 €/L (2.1%) despite declining volumes.
  • In Italy, recent reports confirm ~€0.78/L and “weak trade, cautious demand, high inventories”.
• Italian exports: selective, not generalized growth
  • Some analyses for H1 2025 indicate a 1.5% value/2.1% volume ratio for the 12 main destinations; however, the year is uneven across markets and categories.
  • The new 15% US tariffs could cost Italian companies >€300 million per year , with a strong impact on Prosecco, Pinot Grigio, Moscato, and Tuscan reds.
• Innovation as a discriminant of value
  • 2025 studies confirm the growing use of AI, remote sensing, and automation in vineyards, wineries, and wine tourism: the tech component becomes a KPI in industrial assessments and due diligence.

2. M&A Radar (Italy – focus 2H 2025)

3. Prices & Harvest – operational mini box

Italian Harvest 2025

• Realistic range: 44–47.4 Mhl , with consensus on good-excellent quality but strong heterogeneity by area.
• Substantial message: it’s not quantity that’s the problem, but how to position it in a context of stagnant consumption and full warehouses.

Stocks

• 44.5 Mhl of wine as of 10/31/2025 , 5.2% year on year.
• In fact, the system has almost two harvests in its belly between stock and new crop.

Grape prices / bulk (flash)

• Umbria (October):
  • Sangiovese 26–30 €/q , Merlot/Cabernet 28–30 €/q , Sagrantino DOCG 100–140 €/q , with strong downward corrections vs 2023.
• Veneto / Vicenza DOC: grapes €40–60/q for white/red DOC.
• Bulk Italy: ~0.78 €/L , “not very active market, pressure on volumes”.

4. Strategic reading for acquisition / divestment / positioning

I’ll summarize the key implications for you as if you were evaluating an M&A dossier or reorganizing a winery portfolio:

1. Multiples to be handled with care
   • With 44.5 Mhl in the cellar and an abundant harvest, paying multiples based on “volume growth” logic is difficult to defend.
   • It makes sense to reward: brand equity, premium/PDO segments, export capacity, level of digitalization and automation , not mere hectolitres.
2. Assets “full of wine” ≠ rich assets
   • High stocks today are a working capital risk , not a guarantee:
     • A clear plan for intelligent disposal is needed (blend, B2B channel, opportunistic export)
     • And, in parallel, I am redesigning the range so as not to repeat the same problem in 2026.
3. Technology and channel become price drivers in deals
   • Operations like Tannico–Castel show that the value moves towards:
     • end customer control (data)
     • ability to do dynamic pricing and assortment
     • and technological assets that can be integrated into the supply chain.
   • In target wineries, ask yourself: how much is the digital component worth compared to the hectares?
4. Export: mandatory diversification
   • US tariffs and macro volatility force us to:
     • review country mix (strengthen Northern Europe, Canada, APAC, emerging markets)
     • rethink the role of bulk as a tactical lever (spot/medium-term contracts) and not as the only safety valve.

5. “To-do list” for a board in the next 6–9 months

• For buyers (industrial buyers or fund):
  • favor targets with strong brands, healthy exports, a premium mix , a low inventory/turnover ratio, and investments already underway in AI/automation.
  • discount overstock risk in multiples, building earn-outs linked to inventory reduction and margin growth, not just turnover.
• For those selling or looking for partners:
  • clean up the profile: inventory plan, range redesign, margin KPIs per label , digital roadmap (CRM, D2C, well-managed e-labels).
  • present itself as a ready-made platform (processes, governance, data), not as a “cellar full of wine”.
• For consortia and territories:
  • avoid a price war on generic drugs;
  • focus on performance disciplines, clear segmentation, credible storytelling , supported by data and not just by territorial rhetoric.