Wine Report of September 22, 2025

Here’s this morning’s updated report on the world of wine and wineries—operational insights, strategic signals, and risks to monitor.

Main news

1. Italian exports first semester 2025
   • In the first six months, Italian wine exports recorded a -0.47% in value compared to the same period in 2024, while exported volume fell by -3.1%.
   • The US market continues to be central, showing growth driven mainly by pre-tariff stockpiling.
   • Veneto remains the driving force: 1.5% in value, with export share rising to 37.1%. Sparkling wines remain almost stable in value, with only slightly positive volumes.
2. 2025 Italian Harvest: Abundant and (mostly) Good Quality
   • Production estimated at ~47.4 million hectoliters, 8% vs 2024.
   • Southern regions such as Puglia and Sicily show very strong increases (≈ 19%) in production.
   • Some areas, such as Tuscany, are forecasting a reduction compared to last year for certain varieties (e.g. Sangiovese), but they remain above the recent average.
   • Organic production is growing (Tuscany) and the general qualitative balance is improving, although local disparities due to weather conditions persist.
3. Consolidation & Acquisitions
   • WarRoom Cellars has acquired Iris Vineyards (Willamette Valley, Oregon). The acquisition is designed to strengthen the portfolio, with national distribution handled by Total Beverage Solutions.
   • Heineken Beverages is making significant moves to revitalize its wine brands, including Nederburg, through investments and more aggressive positioning strategies.
4. Trends and signals from foreign markets
   • The European bulk wine sector is looking closely at the 2025 harvest season: surplus production in some areas, prices under pressure.
   • In Australia, despite the reduction in supply, price pressures persist. The vineyard market also remains “quiet”—little movement, with decisions on the most valuable varieties pending.

Emerging Risks & Challenges

• US Tariffs / Trade Policy : Stockpiling has mitigated the effects for now, but buyers and producers signal that real demand could weaken over time, especially after protectionist measures are enacted or announced.
• Global market saturation : With increasing production and stagnant or declining demand in some markets, the risk of oversupply in less diverse categories increases. Logistics, energy, and environmental costs are variables that compress margins.
• Regional Varieties & Quality : Differences in yield and quality between regions could penalize less powerful or less powerful brands if they don’t maintain rigorous standards; vigilance is needed regarding early grapes, water stress, and bunch health.

Strategic opportunities

• Promote appellations/crus/premium/organic wines : quality becomes a lever for distinctiveness. Areas with growing organic production (e.g., Tuscany) have scope for promoting them with a strong brand.
• Strengthen the narrative around emerging markets, those less exposed to tariffs (or those that absorb them better). Diversify not only geographically, but also in terms of consumption: “lighter” wines, aromatic whites, wines destined for the HoReCa market versus retail.
• Explore targeted acquisitions or partnerships: As with Iris Vineyards, merging brands with strong local reputations can help achieve economies of scale and distribution.
• Cost optimization & operational improvement: Given the pressure on margins, companies that already invest in advanced agronomy, traceability, sustainability, and efficient logistics will have a competitive advantage.

“Wine 2025: Record Production, Unstable Exports, and Sustainability at the Center”.

• Key Points
  1. Italian production recovers, confirming its global leadership. Italy expects a 2025 harvest of approximately 47 million hectoliters , 8% higher than 2024, allowing it to maintain its world leadership ahead of France and Spain. Southern regions such as Puglia and Sicily are driving growth.
  2. Sparkling wines and green certifications as differentiating levers. According to the Valoritalia 2025 Report, sparkling wines will grow by 5% in 2024, while red wines will decline by 6.8%. Interest in sustainability certifications is growing (among both producers and consumers); they are becoming key factors for accessing premium markets and building perceived value.
  3. Exports: top markets growing, but widespread instability In the first six months of 2025, Italian wine performed well in Canada (~11% in value), Germany (10.3%) and Japan (0.7%) compared to 2024. However, important markets (United Kingdom, Switzerland, China) are showing declines, often linked to tariffs, changes in consumption or economic pressure on consumers.
  4. Wine tourism and direct sales: opportunities with digitalization and quality of experience. The Divinea-Wine Suite 2025 Report notes that wineries that invest in hospitality, digital marketing, direct sales, and staff training achieve tangible competitive advantages. Wine tourism, as a cultural and tourism phenomenon, continues to integrate with sustainability, local storytelling, and differentiated experiential offerings.
  5. Global trends that cannot be ignored: climate change, consumption moderation, technological innovation . Climate change is pushing wineries to develop drought-resistant varieties, regenerative practices, and more efficient water management. Global wine consumption is under pressure: an aging consumer population, new preferences for “light,” low-alcohol, or experiential beverages. Technology and AI are increasingly integrated, not only in production but also in the customer experience (virtual tasting, recommendations, direct management).

  Quick Strategic Implications

  • When making acquisitions or investing, focus on producers with established sustainable certifications who have already experimented with direct-to-consumer and responsive wine tourism: these tend to maintain or increase value even in unstable markets.
  • In southern regions with strong production, enhancing the “territorial brand” combined with consistent quality can be distinctive in foreign markets, especially where sustainability is required.
  • Monitor tariffs, trade policies, and currency exchange rates: In many key markets, competitiveness can be eroded by factors beyond your direct control.
  • Investing in digitalization not as a “luxury,” but as an operational asset: direct sales, CRM tools, personalized experiences, and storytelling already make a difference.
  • Anticipating and managing the risks of climate change: resistant varieties, irrigation management, and adapting agronomic practices to ensure quality and production continuity.

Wine report for today, September 20, 2025, with updated data and operational analysis to support your acquisition, sale, or positioning decisions.

Key numbers of the day

Italian wineries (news, strategies, mergers, events)

• No significant mergers have been reported recently; the prevailing strategy is to differentiate between quality and terroir rather than aggregation. Various sources emphasize that many wineries are focusing on improved agricultural practices, territorial identity, and certifications.
• Some wineries are putting pressure on their contractors/suppliers (e.g. in Trentino) to adjust their remunerations, given the rising costs and pressure on margins.
• Recent noteworthy events: Sip of Italy / Wine Enthusiast in New York with over 300 Italian labels, an opportunity for international visibility.

Italian wines (new labels, awards, trends)

• Italian sparkling wines: holding steady or growing in some markets; volumes of sparkling wines increase (0.1%) despite a slight decline in overall value.
• Prosecco DOP: continues to be a driving force, with growing volumes and a strong presence on foreign markets.
• White and sparkling wines in large-scale retail trade: still white wines and sparkling wines are the best-performing categories in many large-scale retail channels; red and sparkling wines are suffering losses in volume.
• The trend of “drinking better, not as much”: consumers are becoming increasingly selective, prioritizing identity, sustainability, packaging, and authenticity.

Italian wine trends (exports, consumption, economic data)

• Exports maintain almost the same value share as in 2024 (-0.47%), but volumes are decreasing: -3.1%.
• The 2025 harvest promises good quantities (8%) and high quality, but with significant stocks (cellars already have high stocks) which require the domestic and foreign markets to absorb the surplus.
• Regional: Veneto consolidates its export leadership (1.5% value, approximately €1.4 billion). Tuscany and Piedmont slightly decline in value.
• Large-scale retail trade: stable or slightly growing in value; volume losses, especially for generic wines, non-premium reds, and larger formats. Sparkling wines and white wines are the most resilient categories.

Emerging Risks & Opportunities

Here they are, with practical suggestions for interventions that can make a difference:

• Opportunities: Premiumization & Territorial Enhancement Investing in labels with strong territorial ties, historical heritage, and native grape varieties; producing wines with distinctive packaging and storytelling communication can yield higher margins in foreign markets.
• Opportunity: Sparkling Wines as a Strategic Lever The sparkling wine segment is currently one of the few experiencing significant growth; wineries with production capacity, reputation, and quality control can increase their export/domestic spending share by leveraging this category.
• Risk: Margin Compression for Non-Differentiated Wines Generic wines, non-premium reds, and large or bulk formats risk seeing margins eroded by energy costs, tariffs, and unfavorable exchange rates. It’s important to evaluate whether to continue in these segments or reorient.
• Opportunities: Non-EU markets and geographic diversification. Positive signs from Canada, the USA (despite tariffs), and Australia. Asian markets are declining in some cases, but demand for quality remains high. Strengthening sales, logistics, and brand awareness in those markets showing growth is worthwhile.
• Risk: Inventory and Average Price Management With the harvest increasing and stocks already large, those who do not monitor the unit cost/price ratio may find themselves forced to discount, promotional offers or sales below cost, which damage their positioning.

Final summary

Italian wine is experiencing a precarious balance , but it’s not without levers for building value. Despite stable exports in value and supported by specific segments (sparkling wines, leading regions like Veneto), the challenge of declining volumes and cost pressures remains. The 2025 harvest offers an excellent opportunity in terms of both quantity and quality, but the surplus and inventory necessitate a careful differentiation strategy (premium, terroir, packaging) and a strong commercial presence in markets that reward these characteristics.

Recent Updates (Italy & Global)

News from the wineries and the winemaking industry:

• According to the 2025 harvest survey by Assoenologi UIV ISMEA, Italian production is estimated at ≈ 47.4 million hectoliters , 8% compared to 2024. Grapes in good-excellent general condition.
• At the regional level, Veneto remains the leading producing region (~12 million hl), followed by Puglia and Emilia-Romagna. Tuscany recorded a sharp decline (-13%) compared to the previous year.
• Foreign markets: Italian exports grew in value (1.5%) and volume (2.1%) in the first six months of 2025 in the main international markets, despite trade tensions, tariffs, and inventory postponements.
• Wine prices and segmentation: slight increase in producer prices (Producer Price Index 1%), but differing trends: 4% for white table wines; decline for DOC‑DOCG red wines; slight increase for IGT.
• Domestic consumption in Italy is slowing: in large-scale retail channels, value is stable or slightly increasing, but volume is decreasing; “traditional” formats (0.75 L, bottles up to 2 L, bricks) are declining, while alternative formats such as bag-in-box are seeing slight increases.
• Innovation & Sustainability: Recent studies highlight the growing use of targeted agronomic practices, water management, preventative pest management, and technologies such as artificial intelligence to monitor vineyards, predict phenolic maturity, and optimize resources.
• Awards / Prizes: Italy wins 138 medals at the 2025 Decanter World Wine Awards , with 6 “Best in Show”.

M&A Radar

Ideas for professional posts

1. Title: “2025 Harvest: How to Make the Most of a Blessed Harvest in a Saturated Market” Focus: Analysis of strategies wineries can adopt to avoid devaluing their production — product differentiation (premium, organic, sustainable), supply chain agreements, contractual financing, strong territorial branding.
2. Title: “Wine M&A Transactions: Emerging Opportunities Between Internationalization and Consolidation” Corner: Recent case studies (Fantini, GIV, Campari/Caffo) to understand the drivers of acquisitions: access to land, geographic diversification, economies of scale, quality control; tax and organizational implications.
3. Title: “Prices, Costs, Markets: The Delicate Balance Between Profitability and Competitiveness in Italian Wine” Focus: Production costs (labor, energy, transportation), the risk of US tariffs, the € exchange rate effect, and how these factors are pushing or compressing margins; practical suggestions for protecting them (market diversification, added value, premiumization).