Wine Report of September 28, 2025

information from the world of wine and wineries.

Recent News (5–7 points)

• Heitz Cellar is changing a historic partnership: for the 2025 harvest, it will no longer purchase all of its grapes from Martha’s Vineyard, breaking a tradition spanning more than 60 years.
• Chapel Down (UK) abandons £32m plan for new winery in Canterbury, citing weak demand for English wine.
• In France, wine production in 2025 is estimated at 37.4 million hectoliters (a slight increase on the previous year) but below the five-year average, due to heat waves and summer drought.
• In the United States, some California wineries are reporting that state bureaucracy is hindering operations, exacerbating an already complex situation in the local wine industry.
• In the first 6 months of 2025, Italian wine exports recorded growth in value of 1.5% (approximately €2.8 billion) and in volume of 2.1% (703.5 million litres) in the main world markets.
• In Australia, the bulk wine market is under pressure: grape purchase prices (“crush prices”) are weak despite a slight recovery in demand.
• The academic study “Artificial intelligence for sustainable wine industry” (July 2025) confirms that AI is increasingly implementable to optimize irrigation, monitoring, winemaking process management, and wine tourism strategies.

M&A Radar / Current Operations

Prices & Harvest (mini box)

• Italy – 2025 harvest Estimated production is around 47.4 million hectolitres , an 8% increase compared to 2024. Grapes generally in good health, favorable climatic conditions in many regions.
• Bulk wine prices & market
  • In Australia: pressure on bulk markets, with weak grape prices and low demand for bulk wine.
  • In the US / California: Expected stable or slight contractions in bulk values, given the persistent weakness of the market.
• Territorial notes
  • In Franciacorta, the harvest began with excellent prospects: healthy grapes, a balanced climate, and an estimated 7% increase in exports.
  • In southern Italy (Puglia, Abruzzo, Calabria), yield increases are recorded (even 15-25%) compared to 2024, while in Tuscany a 15% decrease is reported.

information from the world of wine and wineries.

Recent news (5–7 points)

• Masi Agricola has secured €40 million in financing from a banking syndicate to support strategic and infrastructure objectives, including its “Experiential Hub Monteleone 21.”
• Heitz Cellar (Napa) is breaking with historic tradition: for the 2025 harvest, it will no longer purchase all of Martha’s Vineyard’s production, selling part of the grapes to other producers.
• Chapel Down (UK) abandons £32m winery project in Canterbury, citing stagnant demand for English wines.
• Vinarchy (Pernod Ricard/Accolade merger) has consolidated 11 wineries and its headquarters in Adelaide, focusing on the relaunch of the Hardys, Jacob’s Creek and Campo Viejo brands.
• Table wine sales in the United States are declining: over the last 52 weeks, volume has fallen by 6.2%, reflecting declining demand.
• In Italy, a “bountiful” 2025 harvest is expected: estimates indicate around 47.4 million hectolitres , with growth compared to 2024.
• The academic study “Artificial Intelligence for Sustainable Wine Industry” (July 2025) confirms that AI technologies (machine learning, computer vision, predictive models) can optimize irrigation, soil management, winemaking processes, and the wine tourism experience.

M&A Radar / Current Operations

Prices & Harvest (mini box)

• 2025 Harvest – Italy : estimated at ~47.4 million hectoliters, up from 2024.
• Inventories & Domestic Demand : Food inventories remain stable until July 31, 2025, and the large-scale retail sector is showing positive trends for sparkling wines.
• Prices / trends on bottled / bulk / DOC wines • In Italian large-scale retail trade, DOC wines recorded a -0.9% in value and a -2.4% in volume in 2024; DOCG wines decreased by -1.8% in value / -3.1% in volume. • During 2025, in various markets, a decrease in table wine sales in the United States was recorded (volume -6.2%).
• Climate conditions / yields : alert for water stress and heat waves in some Italian regions — risk of quality decline and regional variability.

information from the world of wine and wineries.

Recent Key Points

• In the first seven months of 2025, Italian wine exports recorded a slight drop in value (-1.1%) compared to the same period in 2024, reaching 1.2 billion euros , while volumes rose by 6.1% (219.5 million litres) — a sign of a compression in the average unit price.
• The US scenario is particularly critical: the average price per litre of exported bottles fell to €5.48 (-6.8%) and bulk wine suffered a contraction in value of -39.5%.
• Weather conditions in Italy are looking favorable: the 2025 harvest is imminent with positive expectations, while in the southern hemisphere, below-average harvests are reported for Chile and Argentina, and good ones for Australia/New Zealand.
• The wine M&A market in 2025 remains active but selective: according to a mid-year review, there have been seven significant transactions in the wine sector so far, while investors favor strategic mergers and premium assets.
• In Oregon, two large vineyard management operators have announced a merger, while Vinarchy (a new vehicle for Pernod Ricard Winemakers) is investing $100 million in winery redevelopments in Australia.
• The study “Artificial Intelligence for Sustainable Wine Industry” (July 2025) highlights how the use of AI in vineyards, wineries, and wine tourism can improve efficiency, sustainability, and personalization of the customer experience.
• In the USA, the historic Heitz winery (Martha’s Vineyard) is changing its approach: starting in 2025, it will no longer exclusively purchase all the bunches of grapes from a single vineyard, opening its sourcing to more producers to enhance the value of the territory.

M&A Radar / Current Operations

Prices & Harvest (mini-box)

• 2025 harvest situation (Italy / Northern Hemisphere): harvest imminent, general positive expectations for quantity and quality.
• Southern Hemisphere: Chile (below average), Argentina (average), Australia/New Zealand (above average production)
• Bulk/bottle prices and markets (Italy → USA): the average price per litre of bottled wine exported to the USA is around €5.48, down 6.8% compared to the previous year.
• Differentiation by segment: Italian sparkling wine continues to grow in value (4.3%) but with a drop in unit price (-8.5%).
• Volumetric vs. price trend: growth in export volumes (in some cases 4-6%) accompanied by compression of unit price lists, a sign of price competition and pressure on margins.

information from the world of wine and wineries.

Key news

• Italian wine exports in the first half of 2025 show a mixed trend: a slight decline in volume, but a 1.5% decline in value in the top markets according to Nomisma / WineNews.
• The imposition of a 15% tariff by the United States on imports of EU products is hitting the European wine sector hard, and wineries are looking at alternative scenarios.
• In the Valpolicella area, producers denounce the combined effect of US tariffs and the depreciation of the dollar against the euro, which is making European wines less competitive on the American market.
• Italy expects a 2025 harvest of 47.4 million hectoliters , with healthy grapes and the potential to maintain its world leadership in wine production.
• Italian wine companies are showing “cautious optimism”: according to a Mediobanca survey, a 1.7% increase in revenues and 2% in exports are expected for 2025, with particularly positive performances expected for sparkling wines (4.4% revenues, 6.1% exports).
• On the regulatory front, the EU is focusing on new trade agreements: the draft Mercosur-EU agreement, if approved, could increase agri-food exports to those countries by up to 50%.
• Innovation in the making: The study “Artificial Intelligence for Sustainable Wine Industry” highlights the growing presence of AI in sustainable vineyard management, winery operations, and wine tourism (monitoring, process optimization, and customer experience).

Strategic issues under observation

1. Tariff pressure and the redefinition of transatlantic trade. The constraints of US tariffs are forcing wineries to reassess their geographical export priorities. A Plan B is needed, with penetration into Asia, South America, and Africa, to mitigate dependence on the US market.
2. Margins under stress and competitive pressure. With rising costs (raw materials, logistics, duties) and price competition, focusing on unit value (premium, niche) becomes even more crucial. You can’t compete on volume alone.
3. Aligning exports with real demand . Shipping isn’t enough: wines need to arrive on revolving shelves. The risk is accumulating stock in foreign markets or trade delays that erode margins and brand equity.
4. Historical valorization & brand identity The recognition of historic brands like Tasca d’Almerita strengthens heritage narratives: storytelling, authenticity, and premium positioning are levers that can sustain the competitive advantage.
5. Enabling Technologies & Sustainability Integrating AI into vineyards and wineries can reduce waste, optimize resources, and anticipate phytosanitary risks—essential elements in a context of growing margins and volatility.