Territorial focus: North-East vs South Italy
North-East (Veneto, Friuli-VG, Trentino-AA)
Positioning & Market Signals
- Veneto/Glera (Prosecco) : Chamber of Commerce surveys indicate Glera suitable for Prosecco DOC at €1.75–€1.85/kg ; Glera Bio at €2.00–€2.10/kg (22/08/2025, Padua Chamber of Commerce).
- National inventories : as of September 30, 2025, 36.0 Mhl of wine, 8.5 Mhl of must, and 4.6 Mhl of VNAIF ; inventories decreasing compared to July, but 1.3% y/y : indicates potential pressure on indistinct wines.
- Bulk : Brokerage reports point to a “slow” market; generic whites and Sauvignon/Pinot Grigio in some global regions perceived as “tight,” but 2025 availability still ample.
Risks/Opportunities
- Risk : oversupply in mainstream segments; margin compression if value is not protected.
- Opportunities : promoting organic/low-impact products, sustainable formats (e.g., premium bag-in-box for Northern European Horeca), reinvestment in hospitality and D2C.
Recommended actions (12 months)
- Up-trading of the range : more single-village or sustainability-led cuvées to recover mixes.
- Side-bet on Organic : lock-in of medium-term contracts on Organic Glera (€2.00–€2.10/kg) to occupy the premium sustainable shelf.
- Channel : Push Northern Europe/UK with sustainable formats and storytelling; focus on Horeca and high-end private labels.
Southern Italy (Puglia, Sicily, Calabria)
Positioning & Market Signals
- Puglia : production estimate 17% vs. 2024; healthy grapes, good phenolic ripeness of the reds.
- Sicily : excellent prospects for quality and quantity; low disease pressure; potentially best harvest in the last four years.
- Grape prices (Umbria references, useful Central-Southern benchmark) : Sangiovese €26–30/100 kg , Merlot/Cabernet €28–30/100 kg ; Sagrantino DOCG €100–140/100 kg .
Risks/Opportunities
- Risk : local drought/water stress; price pressure if exports fail to absorb demand.
- Opportunities : Push for Mediterranean reds (Primitivo, Nero d’Avola) with a modern profile ; value-for-money positioning for price-sensitive markets in APAC/LatAm.
Recommended actions (12 months)
- “Mediterranean Reds” line : 10–20k case batches with a fruit/spice profile, balanced alcohol, sustainable closures.
- Selective large-scale retail contracts for better-quality private labels (UK/DE/NL) to absorb volumes without cannibalizing top labels.
- Targeted Capex : Micro-irrigation, sensing, and canopy management for climate resilience.
Export playbook per channel
Asia-Pacific
Context & data
- Wine consumption in China remains depressed in the medium term; 2023 will be at a multi-year low (-24.9% year-on-year in demand), with reopening volatility; however, the greatest long-term opportunity remains “metropolitan clusters” .
- Mercosur : EU approval expected by the end of 2025 (political timing to be confirmed). For wine, this means progressive elimination of tariffs and a window of opportunity for growth in Brazil and Uruguay .
Operational moves
- China Tier-1/2 : Enter with an iconic entry-premium portfolio (giftability, IWSC/Decanter medal leverage), partnerships with specialized importers, and digital brand education .
- ASEAN (SG, VN, TH): focus on aromatic/sparkling white wines served cold and “fresh style” red wines.
- Brazil : Prepare pre-Mercosur records and compliance; use a logistics hub in Santos with a bottled/bulk mix for local re-bottling.
Americas
Context & data
- USA : July–August 2025 : -28% value on Italian wine imports, despite an average discount of ~-17% (15% tariff impact on EU wines).
Operational moves
- Barbell strategy :
- Top-end (DOCG/IGT icons): preserve price, “allocations” for fine-dining clubs/restaurants;
- Value-premium : Optimized SKUs in 6×750 cartons, targeted tactical promos, but avoid price wars .
- Direct-to-Trade : US B2B platforms for transparent sell-in to D2C business clubs (where legal).
- Risk : FX and logistics; minimum coverage and annual freight contracts .
Middle East
Context & moves
- GCC on-trade premium markets (hotels/restaurants) growing; demand for sparkling wines and iconic reds .
- Requires an accredited distributor and portfolio with legal clearance ; promote hospitality pairing and by-the-glass at 5-star venues.
M&A Recommendations (Buy-Side/Sell-Side) – “What to Do Today”
For those who buy (buy-side)
- Target screening : D2C/e-commerce platforms (e.g., the recent Tannico case), distributors with cold chains and APAC/LatAm coverage; micro-brands with strong territorial identities .
- Deal thesis : route-to-market synergies > short-term agricultural synergies.
- Technical due diligence : agronomic KPIs (yield/ha, Brix level, phenolic stability), ESG (water/energy), digital readiness.
For those who sell/open to partners (sell-side)
- Readiness file : traceability data, P&L by channel, LTV of club/D2C customers, inventories by year (consistent with Cantina Italia ).
- Valorisation : Bio/SQNP certifications, international awards, wine tourism traffic, earned media .
- Term sheet : include earn-out on mix margin and export KPIs (new post-USA markets).
Quick KPIs (for decision table)
- Export Italy H1-2025 : 1.5% value / 2.1% volume (≈ €2.8 billion / 703.5 million litres).
- USA two-month period Jul-Aug 2025 : -28% in value for Italian wine (15% duties).
- Italy 2025 harvest : estimated 47.4 Mhl , good/excellent quality.
- Glera Prosecco DOC : €1.75–1.85/kg (organic 2.00–2.10).
- Stocks (09/30/2025) : 36.0 Mhl wine (Italy).
- Puglia : Estimated production up 17% vs. 2024; Sicily : Improving quality and quantity.
- EU-Mercosur : ratification possible by the end of 2025 → progressive tariff opening in South America.
on the main news in the world of wine and wineries, with a strategic eye for those working in the sector.
Major updates
- Italian exports show mixed signals: in the first six months of 2025, Italy recorded an increase in value (1.5% to ≈ €2.8 billion) and in volume (2.1% to ≈ 703.5 million litres).
- On the US market, however, a dramatic decline is evident: in the months of July-August 2025, Italian wine exports to the USA fell by -28% in value compared to the same period in 2024.
- Harvest production in Italy is estimated at around 47.4 million hl for 2025, an increase compared to 2024.
- Grape prices in some regions are reaching new levels: for example, in Umbria, Sangiovese 2025 is valued between €26-30/quintal; Merlot/Cabernet between €28-30/quintal; and Sagrantino DOCG prices reach €100-140/quintal.
- The bulk wine market shows a certain balance: in Italy and globally, the value is substantially stable thanks to the increase in the average price (2.1% to €0.78/litre) despite a slight drop in volumes.
- M&A activity in the wine sector is slowing significantly: deals announced for 2025 remain marginal, and most operators are waiting for clearer terms. Innovation and sustainability remain crucial drivers: a recent study highlights how AI and sensors applied to vineyards, production, and wine tourism are becoming key drivers of competitive advantage.
M&A Radar
- Known deal: Castel-Vins (French group) acquires 100% of Tannico (Italian online wine and spirits platform, previously owned by Campari Group and Moët Hennessy) – announcement October 20, 2025.
- Geography: Italy → France / digital wine distribution
- Size: Not publicly disclosed
- Note: This signals that digital distribution and the logistics platform are strategic targets, even more so than pure production assets.
Prices & Harvest – Mini Box
Harvest 2025
- National estimate Italy: ~47.4 million hl (8% vs 2024)
- Tuscany Region: 2025 production forecast of ~2.4 million hl, down from ~2.7 million hl in 2024 (quality production choice)
- Grape conditions: “extraordinary concentration and health” reported for some varieties in Italy.
Grape prices (some regions/varieties – Italy, updated to October 2025)
- Umbria: Sangiovese ~€26-30/100 kg; Merlot/Cabernet ~€28-30/100 kg.
- Umbria: Sagrantino DOCG ~€100-140/quintal.
- White Umbria: Trebbiano ~€22-26/100 kg; Grechetto ~€30-35/100 kg.
- Bulk wine average value in Italy: €0.78 per litre (~2.1% vs. previous period)
Trends & operational notes
- Despite good production, a surplus is looming in some areas – there is a risk of margin erosion if quality and differentiation are not addressed.
- In the bulk segment, oversupply is pushing for consolidation and the search for efficiency.
- For exports, the contraction towards the USA signals the urgent need to diversify markets and strengthen direct channels/premium brands.
on the main news in the world of wine and wineries, with a strategic eye for those working in the sector.
Major updates
- Italian exports show mixed signals: in the first six months of 2025, Italy recorded an increase in value (1.5% to ≈ €2.8 billion) and in volume (2.1% to ≈ 703.5 million litres).
- On the US market, however, a dramatic decline is evident: in the months of July-August 2025, Italian wine exports to the USA fell by -28% in value compared to the same period in 2024.
- Harvest production in Italy is estimated at around 47.4 million hl for 2025, an increase compared to 2024.
- Grape prices in some regions are reaching new levels: for example, in Umbria, Sangiovese 2025 is valued between €26-30/quintal; Merlot/Cabernet between €28-30/quintal; and Sagrantino DOCG prices reach €100-140/quintal.
- The bulk wine market shows a certain balance: in Italy and globally, the value is substantially stable thanks to the increase in the average price (2.1% to €0.78/litre) despite a slight drop in volumes.
- M&A activity in the wine sector is slowing significantly: deals announced for 2025 remain marginal, and most operators are waiting for clearer terms. Innovation and sustainability remain crucial drivers: a recent study highlights how AI and sensors applied to vineyards, production, and wine tourism are becoming key drivers of competitive advantage.
M&A Radar
- Notable deal: Castel-Vins (French group) acquires 100% of Tannico (Italian online wine and spirits platform, previously owned by Campari Group and Moët Hennessy) – announcement October 20, 2025.
- Geography: Italy → France / digital wine distribution
- Size: Not publicly disclosed
- Note: This signals that digital distribution and the logistics platform are strategic targets, even more so than pure production assets.
Prices & Harvest – Mini Box
Harvest 2025
- National estimate Italy: ~47.4 million hl (8% vs 2024)
- Tuscany: 2025 production forecast ~2.4 million hl, down from ~2.7 million hl in 2024 (quality production choice)
- Grape conditions: “extraordinary concentration and health” reported for some varieties in Italy.
Grape prices (some regions/varieties – Italy, updated to October 2025)
- Umbria: Sangiovese ~€26-30/100 kg; Merlot/Cabernet ~€28-30/100 kg.
- Umbria: Sagrantino DOCG ~€100-140/quintal.
- White Umbria: Trebbiano ~€22-26/100 kg; Grechetto ~€30-35/100 kg.
- Bulk wine average value in Italy: €0.78 per litre (~2.1% vs. previous period)
Trends & operational notes
- Despite good production, a surplus is looming in some areas – there is a risk of margin erosion if quality and differentiation are not addressed.
- In the bulk segment, oversupply is pushing for consolidation and the search for efficiency.
- For exports, the contraction to the USA signals the urgent need to diversify markets and strengthen direct channels/premium brands.
on the main news in the world of wine and wineries, with a strategic eye for those working in the sector.
Major updates
- Italian wine exports in the first seven months of 2025 show a slight decrease: -0.9% in value and -3.4% in volume.
- In the first six months of 2025, Italy saw an increase in exports: 1.5% in value and 2.1% in volume (≈ €2.8 billion, 703.5 million litres).
- Globally, wine exports are expected to decline by approximately -2.3% in the first half of 2025 due to a competitive environment and pressure on foreign markets.
- On the harvest front, Italy is estimated to produce around 47.4 million hl in 2025 (8% more than in 2024) with healthy grapes.
- Grape prices in some regions: in Umbria, Sangiovese ranges from €26-30/quintal, Merlot/Cabernet from €28-30/quintal; for Sagrantino, up to €100-140/quintal.
- Viticultural innovation: smart technology, robotics, and AI applied in the vineyard and cellar are becoming strategic tools for quality and sustainability.
- European wine and spirits M&A activity is slowing sharply, reaching its lowest levels in decades.
M&A Radar
- Deal: Acquisition of Oregon-based Stoller Wine Group by Copper Cane Wines & Provisions – US premium segment. Source: June 15, 2025. (Rumor/Trend) – The number of M&A deals in the wine/spirits sector is sharply declining: 7 wine transactions in H1 2025 vs. higher volumes in previous years.
Prices & Harvest – Mini Box
Harvest 2025
- Estimated production in Italy ~47.4 million hl (8% vs 2024).
- Note: good general conditions, optimal concentration and health of the grapes in many areas.
- In Tuscany: forecast of a voluntary reduction in yields from approximately 2.7 million hl to 2.4 million hl for each quality.
Grape prices
- Umbria: Sangiovese ~€26-30/100 kg; Merlot/Cabernet ~€28-30/100 kg.
- Veneto/Vicenza (DOC): grapes ~€40-60/quintal.
Trend
- Despite a good harvest, grape prices are showing downward pressure in some regions due to potential surpluses and critical foreign markets.
- Technical innovation and quality can be levers for differentiation and improved valorization.