Territorial focus: North-East vs South Italy
North-East (Veneto, Friuli-VG, Trentino-AA)
Positioning & Market Signals
- Veneto/Glera (Prosecco) : Chamber of Commerce surveys indicate Glera suitable for Prosecco DOC at €1.75–€1.85/kg ; Glera Bio at €2.00–€2.10/kg (22/08/2025, Padua Chamber of Commerce).
- National inventories : as of September 30, 2025, 36.0 Mhl of wine, 8.5 Mhl of must, and 4.6 Mhl of VNAIF ; inventories decreasing compared to July, but 1.3% y/y : indicates potential pressure on indistinct wines.
- Bulk : Brokerage reports point to a “slow” market; generic whites and Sauvignon/Pinot Grigio in some global regions perceived as “tight,” but 2025 availability still ample.
Risks/Opportunities
- Risk : oversupply in mainstream segments; margin compression if value is not protected.
- Opportunities : promoting organic/low-impact products, sustainable formats (e.g., premium bag-in-box for Northern European Horeca), reinvestment in hospitality and D2C.
Recommended actions (12 months)
- Up-trading of the range : more single-village or sustainability-led cuvées to recover mixes.
- Side-bet on Organic : lock-in of medium-term contracts on Organic Glera (€2.00–€2.10/kg) to occupy the premium sustainable shelf.
- Channel : Push Northern Europe/UK with sustainable formats and storytelling; focus on Horeca and high-end private labels.
Southern Italy (Puglia, Sicily, Calabria)
Positioning & Market Signals
- Puglia : production estimate 17% vs. 2024; healthy grapes, good phenolic ripeness of the reds.
- Sicily : excellent prospects for quality and quantity; low disease pressure; potentially best harvest in the last four years.
- Grape prices (Umbria references, useful Central-Southern benchmark) : Sangiovese €26–30/100 kg , Merlot/Cabernet €28–30/100 kg ; Sagrantino DOCG €100–140/100 kg .
Risks/Opportunities
- Risk : local drought/water stress; price pressure if exports fail to absorb demand.
- Opportunities : Push for Mediterranean reds (Primitivo, Nero d’Avola) with a modern profile ; value-for-money positioning for price-sensitive markets in APAC/LatAm.
Recommended actions (12 months)
- “Mediterranean Reds” line : 10–20k case batches with a fruit/spice profile, balanced alcohol, sustainable closures.
- Selective large-scale retail contracts for better-quality private labels (UK/DE/NL) to absorb volumes without cannibalizing top labels.
- Targeted Capex : Micro-irrigation, sensing, and canopy management for climate resilience.
Export playbook per channel
Asia-Pacific
Context & data
- Wine consumption in China remains depressed in the medium term; 2023 will be at a multi-year low (-24.9% year-on-year in demand), with reopening volatility; however, the greatest long-term opportunity remains “metropolitan clusters” .
- Mercosur : EU approval expected by the end of 2025 (political timing to be confirmed). For wine, this means progressive elimination of tariffs and a window of opportunity for growth in Brazil and Uruguay .
Operational moves
- China Tier-1/2 : Enter with an iconic entry-premium portfolio (giftability, IWSC/Decanter medal leverage), partnerships with specialized importers, and digital brand education .
- ASEAN (SG, VN, TH): focus on aromatic/sparkling white wines served cold and “fresh style” red wines.
- Brazil : Prepare pre-Mercosur records and compliance; use a logistics hub in Santos with a bottled/bulk mix for local re-bottling.
Americas
Context & data
- USA : July–August 2025 : -28% value on Italian wine imports, despite an average discount of ~-17% (15% tariff impact on EU wines).
Operational moves
- Barbell strategy :
- Top-end (DOCG/IGT icons): preserve price, “allocations” for fine-dining clubs/restaurants;
- Value-premium : Optimized SKUs in 6×750 cartons, targeted tactical promos, but avoid price wars .
- Direct-to-Trade : US B2B platforms for transparent sell-in to D2C business clubs (where legal).
- Risk : FX and logistics; minimum coverage and annual freight contracts .
Middle East
Context & moves
- GCC on-trade premium markets (hotels/restaurants) growing; demand for sparkling wines and iconic reds .
- Requires an accredited distributor and portfolio with legal clearance ; promote hospitality pairing and by-the-glass at 5-star venues.
M&A Recommendations (Buy-Side/Sell-Side) – “What to Do Today”
For those who buy (buy-side)
- Target screening : D2C/e-commerce platforms (e.g., the recent Tannico case), distributors with cold chains and APAC/LatAm coverage; micro-brands with strong territorial identities .
- Deal thesis : route-to-market synergies > short-term agricultural synergies.
- Technical due diligence : agronomic KPIs (yield/ha, Brix level, phenolic stability), ESG (water/energy), digital readiness.
For those who sell/open to partners (sell-side)
- Readiness file : traceability data, P&L by channel, LTV of club/D2C customers, inventories by year (consistent with Cantina Italia ).
- Valorisation : Bio/SQNP certifications, international awards, wine tourism traffic, earned media .
- Term sheet : include earn-out on mix margin and export KPIs (new post-USA markets).
Quick KPIs (for decision table)
- Export Italy H1-2025 : 1.5% value / 2.1% volume (≈ €2.8 billion / 703.5 million litres).
- USA two-month period Jul-Aug 2025 : -28% in value for Italian wine (15% duties).
- Italy 2025 harvest : estimated 47.4 Mhl , good/excellent quality.
- Glera Prosecco DOC : €1.75–1.85/kg (organic 2.00–2.10).
- Stocks (09/30/2025) : 36.0 Mhl wine (Italy).
- Puglia : Estimated production up 17% vs. 2024; Sicily : Improving quality and quantity.
- EU-Mercosur : ratification possible by the end of 2025 → progressive tariff opening in South America.