with updated useful insights as a basis for the wine/cellar sector:
Recent Key Trends (5–7 points)
- The 2025 harvest in Italy is expected to be around 47.4 million hectoliters , up 8% compared to 2024, with quality judged to be “excellent / good” (Unione Italiana Vini)
- Some denominations in central and northern Italy are reporting reduced yields (-10-20%) compared to the previous year, with the desired effect of rebalancing supply and demand.
- On Italian domestic markets, sales in the large-scale retail channel show 0.7% in value but –2.5% in volume (August 2024-July 2025) — sparkling wines are holding up better than the rest (1.9% value, 2.5% volume)
- In the first half of 2025, Italian wine exports recorded 1.5% in value but -3% in volume; the greatest difficulties are evident in the United States and Germany
- The uniform US tariffs of 15% for European wines (which came into force in summer 2025) put strong pressure on the entry and medium segments, in the absence of specific exemptions (valuation of premium wines)
- The EU-Mercosur agreement, now authorized by the European Commission (to be ratified by the Member States), provides for the progressive elimination of wine duties for Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay and Paraguay, with a potential strategic opening for Italian wine in Latin American markets.
- Globally, the bulk wine market appears “sluggish”: grape prices are struggling to recover, while stocks are high and demand is weak, penalizing negotiations for bulk and blended wines (Ciatti report September 2025)
- On the technological horizon, Artificial Intelligence is also gaining ground in sustainable viticulture and wineries, with applications in environmental monitoring, resource management and production process optimisation (study “Artificial Intelligence for Sustainable Wine Industry”, 2025)
- M&A Radar
| Operation / Rumor | Parties involved | Value (if known) | Geography / focus | Source / date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accolade Wines and Pernod Ricard Merger → Vinarchy | Accolade Wines & Pernod Ricard | not communicated | wide-ranging (Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, Spain) | official announcement 2025 |
| Italian wine operations in the Mediobanca report | various national wineries and operators | not available in the main cases | Italy | “M&A Strategies in Italian Wine: Mediobanca Report 2025” |
| (Rumor) Italian acquisitions in the US in 2025 | Italian wineries targeting the US | unspecified | United States | KPMG article “The Italian Presence and M&A in the USA” |
Prices & Harvest (mini-box)
| Region / variety | Grape price / reported trend | Notes on yield / performance vs last year |
|---|---|---|
| Italy (national average) | Grape prices do not show general increases: the market is “calm” and prices are still uncertain (in September 2025) | High cellar inventories: ~36 million hectoliters as of July 31, 2025 (potential drag on prices) |
| Tuscan denominations (Chianti, Langhe, Barbera) | There are no recent public quotations for specific varieties, but some consortia have approved yield reductions to protect value (e.g. Chianti from 75 to 65 quintals/ha). | In some areas (Morellino, Montecucco) yields are lower than initial estimates, with healthy grapes and good qualitative balances |
| International bulk market | Bulk wine and grape market prices show weakness and a tendency to stabilize at a low level; general increases are expected only if demand picks up again. | Oversupply and high inventories limit negotiations and the ability to obtain better prices. |