Morning Wine Report for August 29, 2025

“Italian Wine 2025: Challenging Tariffs, New Markets, and Technological Sustainability”.

1. US tariffs at 15%: a concrete risk for Italian exports
   • Starting from August 1, 2025, a 15% tariff will come into force on European wine, with no exemptions for Italy.
   • According to UIV, the estimated impact could reach up to 317 million euros over the next 12 months.
2. Exports to the United States still solid, but diversification strategy urgently needed
   • In the first five months of 2025, exports to the USA grew by 5.7% in value (approximately €838.7 million), despite tariffs.
   • Chianti and Prosecco producers are looking to South America, Asia, Africa, the Middle East, and Canada as alternative strategic outlets.
3. Complex global markets: certain weakness in real consumption
   • The first quarter of 2025 reports a -9% of exports to non-EU countries in volume , and a real drop in consumption in the United States, Germany and the UK.
   • Stocks remain high: approximately 39.8 million hl as of July 30, 0.5% compared to 2024.
4. Emerging trends: new tastes and a focus on sustainable innovation
   • Interest in native varietals, canned wines, chillable reds, orange wines, and “food-first” rosés is growing; social conversations about Italian wine are growing by 0.97% YoY .
5. Sustainability 4.0: AI Enters the Winery and Wine Tourism Industry
   • Recent studies highlight how Artificial Intelligence can optimize vineyard monitoring, irrigation, production, and the wine tourism experience with chatbots, virtual tastings, and personalized systems, supporting efficiency and territorial value.

• #ExportConscious
• #EmergingMarketsStrategy
• #SustainableInnovation

Conclusion

Italian wine faces a crucial moment: tariffs on the US market pose a strategic pressure, but the resilience of exports still allows for recovery. The real challenge is to diversify with coordinated systems towards new markets, respond to stagnant real consumption, and manage inventories. At the same time, value creation today relies on innovative consumer trends and AI-driven sustainable innovation. Your role as a trusted partner , with solidity, vision, and the ability to orchestrate complex operations, becomes crucial to transforming these factors into high-impact strategic choices.

Sources with dates

• US tariffs 15% from August 1, 2025; estimated impact up to €317 million:
• US exports 5.7% value (Jan-May 2025):
• Diversification towards South America, Asia, Africa:
• Extra-EU exports -9% volume first quarter 2025; stocks 39.8 Mhl as of July 30:
• Consumer trends 2025 (chillable reds, orange wines, etc.; social 0.97%):
• AI for sustainability and wine tourism:

Key updates in the world of wine.

• The Wine Institute of California is preparing for a change: after 22 years as CEO, Bobby Koch is stepping down from the helm of the leading association 1 .
• The Pickett Fire in Napa Valley has caused an estimated $65 million in damage to crops, with approximately 1,500 acres (3% of the vineyard area) affected, with high risks of smoke contamination of the ongoing harvest.
• The Rioja DOCA is entering a new phase: ahead of the centennial harvest, it is introducing yield limits and a renewed leadership to ensure evolution and quality.
• In Great Britain , an early harvest is underway after a hot, dry summer: a promising year is expected, with good grape ripening and high quality still wines.
• The Portuguese region of Tejo updates its PGI specifications: low- and no-alcohol versions have been accepted, to anticipate emerging trends in consumption.
• The impact of climate change is increasingly evident: Greg Sherwood’s analysis describes who “wins” and who “loses” in this critical context for global viticulture.

M&A Radar

No significant M&A transactions have emerged in the sector globally to date.

Mini-box “Prices & Harvest”

Key updates in the world of wine.

• Some rare bottles of Château Margaux (1948–2004) are being offered by SoDivin, with prices reaching up to €2,187.50 for the ’48, rewarding historic quality and scarcity.
• The global bulk wine market is experiencing a sharp slowdown: high inventories and weak demand are making the period between July and early August unusually quiet.
• In Italy , the 2025 harvest is upon us, but with worrying overproduction. Inventories exceed 46 million hl and could double to 90 million hl. Urgent measures such as green harvesting, distillation, and yield rationalization are being discussed.
• Franciacorta has started the harvest with promising quality and exports growing by 7%.
• The 15% US tariffs threaten Italian wines, with a potential loss of €317 million estimated over the next 12 months. Chianti producers are already exploring alternative markets—Asia, South America, Africa—to mitigate the risk.
• A new study on Artificial Intelligence in viticulture shows how AI optimizes vineyard monitoring, irrigation, production, and personalized wine tourism, contributing to sustainability and operational efficiency.

M&A Radar

To date, there have been no recent, significant M&A transactions in the Italian or global wine sector.

Mini-box “Prices & Harvest”

Key updates on the world of wine.

Morning Wine Report for August 26, 2025

• Climate crisis in the Mediterranean : winemakers in Greece, Spain, France, and Italy are facing drought, flooding, and extreme temperatures. Strategies adopted: advanced irrigation, new resistant varieties, and changes in altitude.
• Italian exports slightly down : through May 2025, value -0.8% (€3.2 billion), volume -3.8% (852.3 million liters). Markets holding steady: USA (5.7% in value) and Canada; UK, Germany, China, Japan, and Russia are declining.
• Growing inventories : as of July 30, Italian inventories stood at 39.8 million hl, stable on an annual basis (0.5%) but down compared to June (-8.8%).
• Global bulk market slows : weak demand pushes innovation (canned wine, low-ABV, spritz). In Italy, harvest is slow, but the bulk market remains sluggish; Prosecco DOC 5.4% in July; 2024 Pinot Grigio almost sold out.
• US tariff tensions : 15% tariffs penalize Valpolicella and Ripasso, while Amarone has a lesser impact; potential losses of up to €317 million over 12 months.
• Chianti looks to Asia, South America and Africa : in the face of US tensions, export strategies are being pushed towards emerging markets (Brazil, China, Japan, Africa and the Middle East).
• AI and sustainability in viticulture : new studies show how Artificial Intelligence optimizes irrigation, vineyard management, and personalized wine tourism itineraries.

M&A Radar

Currently, no recent M&A transactions in the Italian or global wine sector emerge from the available results.

Mini-box “Prices & Harvest”