Morning Wine Report for September 7, 2025

Updated with the latest news and data on wine and wineries, designed as an operational base for strategic and concrete posts in your role as a trusted partner, with 50 years of experience in the wine sector.

Key Updates (5–7 points)

• Exports buoyant despite the complex context – In the first half of 2025, Italian wine exports grew by 1.5% in value (€2.8 billion) and 2.1% in volume (703.5 million litres), exceeding the global average.
• Stocks and physiological reserves in moderate decline – At the end of July 2025, Italian vineyards had approximately 39.8 million hl of wine in stock (–8.8% compared to the previous June), 0.5% on an annual basis; red PDO wines grew (1.8%), while white wines and table wines recorded decreases.
• 2025 Harvest: Quality Choices in Tuscany, Abundance in Veneto – In Tuscany, 2025 production is expected to drop to 2.4 million hl (from 2.7 million in 2024), with cuts of 10–15% to focus on quality; in Veneto , an additional 100,000 tons of grapes are estimated, in “excellent condition” and with increasing yields.
• US Tariffs Unresolved but a Strategic Market – Chianti producers are looking to South America, Asia, Africa, and the Middle East as alternative markets, facing tariff threats on the US market (worth approximately €2 billion in 2024).
• Margin pressure for small businesses – The imposition or threat of tariffs, combined with the strengthening of the euro, threaten the performance of manufacturers, particularly those exporting to the US.
• Sustainable Innovation: AI Enters the Vineyard – A recent study confirms the positive impact of artificial intelligence on monitoring, irrigation, production, and food and wine tours, as a concrete lever for making wineries more efficient, sustainable, and attractive.

Prices & Harvest (Mini Box)

• Estimated harvest :
  • Tuscany : approximately 2.4 million hl (–10-15% compared to 2024), from a qualitative perspective
  • Veneto : 100,000 tons of grapes compared to 2024, excellent health conditions, slightly increased yields
• Stocks :
  • Total wines in stock: 39.79 million hl (–8.8% vs June; 0.5% vs previous year)
  • Red DOP wines: 1.8% trend, white wines decreasing, table wine –0.6%
• Prices :
  • No recent reports of specific prices for grapes or bulk/bottle wines in today’s sources.

Ideas for Professional Posts

1. Title : “Quality vs. Quantity: How Tuscany Reacts to the 2025 Harvest” Angle : Talking about the strategic choice of production cut to strengthen quality, with repercussions on positioning and perceived value in international markets.
2. Title : “Pending US Tariffs: Keys to Understanding and Mitigation Strategies” Focus : Exploring the US dilemma – its strategic value, but also the tariff risks – by illustrating territorial diversification as a concrete lever for protecting business.
3. Title : “AI in the winery: from the vineyard to the tourist, a smarter supply chain” Focus : Highlighting how the adoption of artificial intelligence tools is innovating the winemaking supply chain, creating operational, sustainable, and experiential value.

Key Updates (5–7 essential points).

• 2025 harvest in Italy : Coldiretti estimates production of approximately 45 million hectoliters (9.5% higher than 2024), with good to excellent quality. However, uncertainty in foreign markets (especially in the US due to tariffs) is weighing on the positioning strategy.
• Veneto leads the way : a fruitful harvest is expected in both quantity and quality, with production reaching approximately 14 million quintals (3-5% vs. 2024). The region remains the heart of Italian exports (almost €3 billion).
• Italy: High inventories and an uncertain context : before the start of the harvest, significant production surpluses are expected in several areas, with consumption stagnating and a wine market in stagnation.
• Italian exports: overall holding steady, US declines in Q2 : In the first six months of 2025, Italian wine exports grew by 1.5% in value (€2.8 billion) and 2.1% in volume (703.5 million liters), outperforming globally. However, the United States saw a 7% decline in volume in Q2 post-stockpiling.
• Diversification of trade routes : Chianti and Prosecco producers are looking to South America, Asia, Africa, and the Middle East to mitigate tariff risks and preserve the value of their exports.
• California Harvest in deep crisis : the 2025 harvest looks even more critical than the already dramatic 2024: consumption at an all-time low, agricultural surplus, abandonment and massive uprooting of vineyards (over 100,000 tons of grapes left in the fields).
• Innovation and sustainability with AI : a recent study highlights how artificial intelligence is making its way into sustainable viticulture, optimizing irrigation, monitoring, production, and wine tourism itineraries through predictive tools and personalized experiences.

M&A Radar

(There are no recent M&A transactions in today’s data.)

Prices & Harvest – Mini-box

1. Title : “Italian Harvest 2025: Between Abundance and Global Uncertainty, Managing Value” Focus : Highlighting how to transform production growth (Italy and Veneto) into strategic value, managing the surplus with alternative trade routes, premium traceability, and technological leverage.
2. Title : “Tariffs and consumption at a minimum: Italian wine changes course” Angle : underline the need for geographical diversification (South America, Asia, Africa) and structured communication as a defensive and opportunity choice, beyond the US crisis.
3. Title : “California in free fall: a lesson for Italian wine” Angle : describing the American crisis (production collapse, abandoned land) as a mirror of systemic risk, stimulating proactive strategic reflection, from yield management to AI.

“Italian Wine 2025: Quality, Resilience, and New Global Challenges”.

1. Italian 2025 harvest growing and of good quality Production is expected to reach around 45 million hectoliters , with an increase of more than 9.5% compared to 2024 and quality between good and excellent, despite some regional critical issues.
2. Exports hold steady in value despite turbulence in key markets. In the first six months of 2025, Italian wine exports grew 1.5% in value and 2.1% in volume , outpacing the global average. However, the trend is impacted by the post-stockpiling slowdown in the United States and by fluctuating trends in key markets.
3. New US tariffs: priority to diversification . A 15% tariff on European wine and spirits imports to the US will take effect August 1, 2025, a highly impactful issue for our producers. Vinitaly.USA in Chicago (October 5–6) will be a strategic opportunity to reaffirm our presence and resilience in the American market.
4. Gen Z and wine: an emerging challenge. Global still wine consumption is declining, while Ready-to-Drink (RTD) wines are growing, perceived as more accessible and innovative, and favored by young consumers. The industry must adapt to this shift to remain competitive.
5. Innovation and AI for sustainable resilience Artificial intelligence is proving to be a strategic lever for sustainable viticulture: smart monitoring, resource optimization, and new personalized experiences for wine tourism thanks to chatbots and recommendation systems.

“Italian Wine 2025: Between Growth, Dynamic Markets, and New Global Opportunities”.

1. 2025 production to grow strongly and with good quality. Coldiretti forecasts around 45 million hectolitres , 9.5% higher than 2024, with quality levels ranging from good to excellent, although strong regional differences remain.
2. Exports expand in North American markets. Italian exports to the United States increased by 2.5% in the first half of the year, driven by a pre-tariff “stockpiling effect.” Growth in Canada is even more significant, at 11%, supported by changes in local purchasing preferences.
3. New opportunities with strategic trade agreements. The approval (pending ratification) of the EU-Mercosur agreement and the agreement with Mexico opens access to high-potential Latin American markets. Brazil and Mexico could become key destinations for Italian wines, thanks to reduced tariffs and the strengthening of geographical indications.
4. Wine tourism: a constantly evolving strategic asset Wine tourism in Italy today represents a vital resource: 9% of revenues in 2024, with authentic experiences integrated with hospitality, tastings, and experiential activities linked to local production.
5. Innovation, Sustainability, and AI: Levers for the Future In a context of growing geopolitical and environmental complexity, smart technologies—such as AI applied to viticulture, manufacturing, and tourism—are becoming essential tools for optimizing processes, promoting experiential engagement, and strengthening strategic resilience.