Morning Report for September 12 2025

Recent Updates (Italy & Global).

• Italy aims to regain the top spot in world production in 2025: estimated harvest of 47.4 million hectoliters (Italy), 8% vs. 2024, with vineyards generally in excellent condition, quality ranging from “good to excellent” in many regions.
• Despite recovering production, the market is suffering from saturation: unsold stocks as of July 31st amount to approximately 39.8 million hl , and fears of oversupply after the harvest.
• Italian exports in the first six months of 2025: slightly down (-0.4%) compared to the first half of 2024, with a volume of -3.1%. However, the USA and Canada recorded positive performances: Italian exports to the USA increased by 5.2%, and Canada by 12.8%.
• Some regions show diverging trends: Tuscany is forecasting a double-digit reduction in production (≈ −13%) vs 2024; Veneto is experiencing strong growth (estimated at ~12 million hl, constituting almost 1/4 of national production) supported by favorable conditions.
• France expects to produce around 37.4 million hl , despite modest increases vs 2024, but remains well below the 5-year average due to heat, drought, and reduced juice content in the grapes.

M&A Radar

Prices & Harvest Mini‑Box

Strategic Observations

• The global market is very attentive: US tariffs and subsidy/disincentive policies (e.g., the dismantling of vineyards in France) are factors that impact not only quantities/prices, but also market strategies, positioning, and investments.
• The issue of high inventories (stocks) is a real risk: coordination in trade, targeted promotion, and possible forward agreements are needed to limit the risk of price erosion.
• Quality as a competitive lever: excellent harvests offer opportunities for differentiation, to promote premium wines and strong denominations, but marketing must “storytell” effectively, even for new/distant markets.

Post ideas for professionals

1. Title: “47.4 million hectoliters: how to transform 2025 abundance into added value without lowering prices” Corner: operational strategies to avoid the oversupply effect: forward contracts, partnerships with foreign bottlers, product diversification (premium / specialty), careful yield management, investing in branding and storytelling for high-margin segments.
2. Title: “Italian Exports: USA & Canada Holding Firm, Europe and Asia Creaking – Which Alternative Markets Can Protect Ourselves from Tariffs?” Focus: In-depth country data, assessment of emerging markets with competitive gaps (e.g., South America, Africa, Southeast Asia), possible bilateral agreements, how to differentiate channels (online, HoReCa, retail), and institutional promotion policies.
3. Title: “Niche M&A in Wine: Focusing on Territories, Organic Sustainability, and Brands with Strong Identity” Focus: Recent cases such as Rapitalà (organic, Sicily), strategies of groups like GIV, and Caffo’s acquisition of Cinzano/Frattina; assessing how these examples can serve as models for small/medium-sized wineries preparing for consolidation.

On the world of wine and wineries—streamlined, strategic, and designed to assist you as a consultant in the sector:

Updates of the day

• Italy is heading for a plentiful 2025 harvest : production is estimated at around 47.4 million hectoliters . Quality is judged good to excellent in many regions, despite some critical climatic conditions.
• Italian exports in the first six months of 2025: 1.5% in value and 2.1% in volume compared to the first half of 2024. Italy above the global average in the main monitored markets.
• The global bulk wine market is slowing: inventories are rising, bulk exports are declining in some areas, and buyers are awaiting new harvests before making aggressive commitments.
• US tariffs continue to weigh heavily: Italian imports to the United States slowed in value in June, even though the first half of the year remained positive; the “slowdown” in June was attributed to the end of stockpiling.
• Winemaking / Territory: Veneto is seeing moderate growth (3-5%) according to initial data; Chianti is forecasting a decline in volumes (-10-15%) but high quality. Alto Adige is harvesting earlier than usual.
• Sparkling Wines / Prosecco: Prosecco DOCG is reported as one of the sectors with a record-breaking 2025 harvest, considered among the best of the last 30 years in terms of quality.

M&A Radar

There are currently no recent reports of large-scale international acquisitions in the wine sector (Italy/Europe) as reported in the sources just analyzed. However:

• Tommasi Family Estates has strengthened its presence in Southern Italy with the acquisition of Tenuta Eméra (Puglia) and Cantina Moros (LE), as reported by Wine Meridian.
• There are currently no reliable public figures for many local operations.

Prices & Harvest

on the world of wine and wineries—streamlined, strategic, and designed to assist you as a consultant in the sector:

Morning Report for September 10, 2025

Key updates

• French 2025 production below the five-year average. France expects a harvest of 37.4 million hectoliters, 3% lower than in 2024 but 13% lower than the average; drought and the felling of over 20,000 hectares of vineyards are penalizing some regions.
• The global wine market holds up despite decades-low production. Despite the decline in global production, trade flows remain strong, and Italy’s adaptability emerges as a model of stability.
• Portugal activates an emergency fund for Douro winemakers. €15 million has been allocated to support small producers, dispose of surpluses, and initiate structural reforms in the sector.
• Growing Innovation: Grape Exosomes Market to Double by 2031 Growing demand in the health and beauty sectors is driving the prospect of the market doubling within a few years.

Prices & Harvest

• Italy : 2025 harvest estimated at 45 million hectoliters (9.5% on 2024), with good quality but concerns about US duties at 15%.
• Tuscany : production expected at around 2.4 million hl , slightly down (from 2.7 million in 2024), with an organic share of 13-15% (10% per year).
• Italian stocks : down 8.8% compared to June, with the sharpest drops in PGI and table wines.
• Bulk wine market : In Chile, the harvest is down by around 25%, pushing prices higher and encouraging more early buying.

Ideas for professional posts

1. Title: “Italy 2025: A growing harvest and exports contested between opportunities and US tariffs” Angle: How to use the positive production forecast to support strategic dialogues with foreign buyers and diversify markets, despite the new tariffs.
2. Title: “Structural Resources for the Douro: Lessons for Italian Wine” Focus: Explain how the Portuguese emergency fund can inspire similar mechanisms (private and public) to support struggling wineries at the local and community levels.
3. Title: “Innovating with Science: Grape Exosomes and New Paths to Value Beyond the Bottle” Angle: Highlighting the ability to open new segments—health, beauty—through technological innovation, offering a valuable perspective for strategic partners.

Here’s our updated morning report on the world of wine and wineries, designed as a strategic foundation for a professional post.

Key Updates

• US Study on Alcohol Risks Withdrawn The US Department of Health has withdrawn the “Alcohol Intake and Health Study,” which linked even just one drink a day to health risks, fueling uncertainty about future nutritional guidelines.
• Nigeria’s wine market is growing. Weekly consumption has reached 7%, with an annual market of approximately 28,000 tons. Demand is driven by imports, primarily from France, the USA, Spain, South Africa, and Italy.
• Chianti diversifies export markets In response to US tariff threats, the Chianti Consortium is pushing for new export outlets: South America, Asia, Africa, the Middle East, and Canada.
• Valpolicella under tariff stress The exclusion of wine and alcohol from the EU-US tariff shield entails a 15% duty, with an estimated impact of up to €317 million annually on mainstream wines such as Valpolicella and Ripasso.
• Strategic Acquisitions in California Natural Wine Overshine Collective, led by David Drummond, has acquired Reeve Wines and Martha Stoumen Wines while retaining the founders involved—a symbolic value in the hybridization of tech and wine.
• Artificial Intelligence at the Service of Sustainability A recent study highlights how AI (predictive analytics, computer vision, chatbots) is already being used to optimize irrigation, production, and food and wine tourism, making wineries more efficient and attractive.

M&A Radar

• Overshine Collective (David Drummond) : Acquisition of Reeve Wines and Martha Stoumen Wines in California. Strategy focused on natural wines and emerging brands. Founders still in the spotlight.

Ideas for Professional LinkedIn Posts