Daily report – November 10, 2025 on the world of wine (Italy & global), designed for those who lead operations in wineries/consortia.
(Focus on Italy, global coordination for winery/consortium decisions and M&A)
- 2025 harvest (EU/Italy/France): Copa-Cogeca estimates 145.5 Mhl EU (1% y/y; −7.5% vs. 5-year average). Italy leads with ~47 Mhl , Spain ~31–32 Mhl; France revised to ~36.2 Mhl due to heat and drought.
- Italy – 2025 harvest: joint Assoenologi–Ismea–UIV estimate: 47.4 Mhl (8% vs 2024) with good/excellent quality; some supply chain readings indicate a possible “low-forties” (~44 Mhl) .
- Italian wine exports: in July 2025 the YTD balance is −0.9% value / −3.4% volume ; USA in negative territory and affected by 15% tariffs (since August): −28% in value in the two-month period July-August .
- Italian stocks: as of 09/30/2025 in the cellar ~36 Mhl (-9.6% vs July; 1.3% y/y) → pressure on bulk price lists.
- Global market H1-2025: world trade −2.3% value / −3.7% volume ; bulk holds steady in value (−0.3%) with average price ~€0.78/L ( 2.1%) .
- Rules & Labels: EU: Ingredients & Nutrition Facts mandatory from December 8, 2023 (also via e-label/QR ). OIV updates the 2025 standards (Codex/Practices/Labeling). In Italy, decrees of December 20, 2024, and May 14, 2025, regulate (partially) dealcoholized wine and its use in mixed-use premises; restrictions on PDO/PGI remain in place according to the current texts/amendments.
- Awards/Rankings: “ Top 100 Best Buys 2025 ” (Wine Enthusiast): 17 Italian labels (Saracco, La Raia in the Top 10).
M&A Radar (updated 10/11/2025)
| Deal / Rumor | Parts | Size / note | Geo | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transfer of the Cinzano & Frattina brands | Campari → Caffo Group 1915 | €100 million ; closing expected by the end of 2025 | IT | |
| Tannic (closing 06/10/25) | CASTEL-Vins ↔︎ Tannic | nd | IT/FR | |
| Talloria Valley (former Giordano complex, IWB) – binding offer | Caffo Group 1915 ↔︎ Italian Wine Brands | nd; “new Cinzano House”; move expected by the end of 2025 | IT (Piedmont) |
Prices & Harvest — mini box (flash)
Grapes 2025 (Umbria, Chamber of Commerce price lists / local press – October):
- Sangiovese €26–30/q; Merlot/Cabernet €28–30/q; Sagrantino DOCG €100–140/q. Trends: −~30% y/y (up to −50% vs 2023); the only exception is Trebbiano Spoletino, which is rising sharply due to scarcity.
Bulk wine (global):
- H1-2025 average bulk price ~€0.78/L (2.1%), weak trade; in Italy demand is cautious with high inventories .
Stocks & Returns (Italy):
- Stocks ~36 Mhl as of September 30; harvest ~47.4 Mhl (good/excellent quality) with possible reductions in some areas.
France (weather/yield):
- 36.2 Mhl expected; heat waves and summer droughts have compressed volumes, quality varies by area.
on the world of wine (Italy & globally), designed for those who manage operations in wineries/consortia.
Key updates
- The estimate for the 2025 Italian harvest is around ~47.4 million hl , 8% compared to 2024, which confirms Italy’s world leadership in terms of volume.
- Italian wine exports in the first seven months of 2025 show a slight decrease in value (-0.9%) and a contraction in volume (-3.4%) compared to the same period in 2024.
- The global wine market (H1 2025) records a decrease in volume (~‑3.7%) and value (~‑2.3%), while the average price per litre in some segments (bulk) rises to ~€0.78/litre (approximately 2.1%).
- Inventories remain high in the Italian bulk and bulk wine segment: large quantities clash with demand, putting pressure on margins.
- Innovation: An academic study reports how AI and remote sensing are playing a growing role in viticulture, production, and wine tourism.
- Changing preferences: interest in whites, sparkling wines, and innovative formats is growing; red wines are showing signs of stagnation or decline (specific data for Italy is not always disclosed). (Source: broader imported trend)
- Italy has allocated over €27 million (with a target of >€63 million in total co-financed) to promote Italian wine in non-EU markets for 2025/26, considered strategic in a context of export challenges.
M&A Radar
| Deal/Rumor | Parties involved | Size (if stated) | Geography | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transfer of the Cinzano Frattina brand | Campari Group → Caffo Group 1915 | ~€100 million | Italy |
Prices & Harvest – mini-box Harvest & yields
- Italy 2025: ~47.4 Mhl estimated (8% vs 2024) but with local/regional uncertainties.
- In some regions (e.g. Tuscany) forecast decrease: Tuscany estimated ~2.4 Mhl vs 2.7 Mhl in 2024.
Grape / bulk wine prices (Italy)
- Bulk market Italy: average price reported ~€0.78/litre (2.1% vs previous period) in some reports.
- Price pressure in regions with large surpluses and weak demand. High inventories = compressed margins.
Weather/Quality Note
- Good-excellent quality reported for many areas, but increasing quantities in some regions which may generate supply/demand imbalances.
on the world of wine (Italy & globally), designed for those who manage operations in winer.
Key Updates
- Estimates for the 2025 Italian harvest indicate approximately 47.4 million hl , an increase of approximately 8% compared to 2024.
- Italian wine exports in the first seven months of 2025 recorded a -0.9% in value and -3.4% in volume compared to the same period in 2024, with the US market declining for the first time.
- The global wine market (H1 2025) recorded a decrease of –2.3% in value and –3.7% in volume, with the average price per litre increasing to around €3.57.
- Italian inventories remain high and represent a potential pressure on margins in the loose and bulk segment.
- Innovation: An academic study highlights how AI and remote sensing are playing a growing role in viticulture, production, and wine tourism.
- The focus on younger consumers and on white/sparkling wines shows a change in preferences: in Italy, a recent analysis reports -6.8% in red wine sales, while white and sparkling wines are growing by ~5%.
- In the M&A sector, although the sector is still in the process of stabilizing, signs are emerging such as the sale of the Cinzano brand from Campari Group to Gruppo Caffo 1915 for ~€100 million.
M&A Radar
| Deal/Rumor | Parties involved | Size (if stated) | Geography | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transfer of the Cinzano Frattina brand | Campari Group → Caffo Group 1915 | ~€100 million | Italy |
Prices & Harvest – mini box
Harvest & yields
- Italy 2025: estimate ~47.4 Mhl (8% vs 2024).
- Grape quality reported to be good, but with an increase in quantities in some regions and possible imbalances between supply and demand.
Grape / bulk wine prices (Italy)
- Umbria: Sangiovese ~€26-30/100 kg; Merlot/Cabernet ~€28-30/100 kg; Sagrantino DOCG ~€100-140/100 kg.
- Bulk wine in Italy: average price ~€0.78/liter, 2.1% lower than the previous period. Trend : grape prices in some regions are down compared to last year (e.g., Umbria: approximately -31% for Sangiovese).