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Wine Report of November 5 2025

with:

Current trends in Italian and world wine.

Key updates

  • Italian wine exports from January to July 2025 show a slight decline: value -0.9% and volume -3.4% compared to the same period in 2024.
  • European wine production saw a significant decline in Spain (~15% less, ~31.5 Mhl) while Italy stood at around ~47 Mhl and France at ~37 Mhl.
  • The bulk wine market in Italy is currently relatively stable, but with signs of pressure due to high inventories and stagnant sales.
  • On the innovation front: Research into the application of AI (artificial intelligence) in viticulture, production, and wine tourism highlights growing potential for cost optimization and sustainability.
  • At consumer level, Italy has seen a very modest increase in wine prices over the last 10 years (7.4%), a sign of initial “resistance” from the medium-high segments of the sector.
  • Under M&A/finance, targeted investments in the Italian wine sector persist: for example, the bond issue by Feudi di San Gregorio in Southern Italy.
  • In the export channel, the USA is becoming a source of concern (tariffs, accumulations), and the need to diversify towards new markets with medium-long term strategic planning is essential.

M&A Radar

Deal / RumorPartsSize / noteGeographySource
Acquisition of the production share of Italian Wine Brands (Valle Talloria) by Gruppo Caffo 1915 (IT)Caffo ↔ Italian Wine Brandsnot disclosedItaly (Piedmont)
Acquisition of Tenuta Ulisse, which takes over management of the Montevetrano winery (IT)Tenuta Ulisse (investment firm) ↔ Montevetranonot disclosed

Prices & Harvest – mini box

  • Grapes (Italy) : Umbria 2025, Sangiovese priced at €26-30 per quintal; Merlot/Cabernet €28-30/quintal; Sagrantino DOCG €100-140/quintal.
  • Bulk wine market (Italy) : stable trend but with downward pressure due to high availability.
  • Harvest 2025 (Italy) : preliminary estimate ~47.4 Mhl, but recent findings indicate a potential reduction towards ~44 Mhl due to climatic stress.

Wine Report — November 4 2025 (Italy & World)

with:

Today’s wine and cellar trends,

Highlights (in 6 points)

  • Italian exports: US shock from 15% tariffs (effective August 1) – sales down 28% in value in July-August 2025 ; many manufacturers have cut their price lists by ~ 17% to limit the impact. UIV calls for support measures.
  • Italy 2025 harvest : official estimates of ~47.4 Mhl and good to excellent quality; other supply chain readings converge between 44–47 Mhl (widening due to heterogeneous yields in the North/Central-South). Inventories as of September 30: 36 Mhl (-9.6% vs. July; 1.3% vs. y/y).
  • France : 2025 output revised downwards to ~ 36–37.4 Mhl due to summer heat and drought; some districts (Beaujolais) at multi-year lows, Champagne slightly recovering.
  • Spain : 2025 estimate drops sharply to ~31–32 Mhl (Copa-Cogeca/SeVi), with DOs such as Rías Baixas at historic grape records.
  • Global trade : the OIV reports that re-export accounts for ~ 13% of flows (2018-23); wine trade accounts for 47% of world consumption.
  • Rules & Labeling : OIV publishes the 2025 edition of the international labeling standard; in the EU, the implementation of ingredients and nutritional information via e-label continues, along with clarifications on tracking-free QR codes . In Italy, a national framework for dealcoholized wine has been established (prohibitions for PDO/PGI).

M&A Radar (closed 4/11/2025)

DateDeal / RumorPartsSizeGeo
06/10/25Tannico moves to CASTEL-Vins (from JV Campari–Moët Hennessy)Castel-Vins ↔︎ TannicndIT/FR
09/10/25Binding offer for the Valle Talloria (IWB) site, the new “Casa Cinzano”Caffo Group 1915 ↔︎ Italian Wine Brandsnd (closing expected by the end of 2025)IT (Langhe)
October 25Calmére Estate (formerly Acacia), Napa sold to Asian investorPeju Sellers ↔︎ Private Buyer$16.8 millionUSA (Napa)
September–October ’25Chapel Down cancels £32m winery (pivot capex)Chapel Downn/aUK

Prices & Harvest (flash to 4/11)

  • GRAPES (€/kg) • Piedmont (AL–AT, 09/10) : Nebbiolo 1.00–1.35 ; Arneis 1.00–1.35 ; “non-varietal” 0.50–0.60 . • Cuneo (update of Chamber of Commerce portal) : Nebbiolo Barolo 3.00–3.21 ; Barbaresco 1.91–3.39 ; Moscato d’Asti 1.20–1.24 ; Barbera d’Alba 1.00–1.34 . • Prosecco – Treviso/BM and Condifesa : Glera DOCG indicative range 0.85–1.70 ; DOC 0.56–1.12 ; Superior organic; yields: DOCG 135 q/ha; DOC 180 q/ha .
  • Bulk wine (€/L, Treviso BM – today) : Prosecco DOCG 2.55–2.75 ; Asolo DOCG 2.40–2.60 ; DOC 2.05–2.25 .
  • Bulk (global) : Abundant supply in several basins; flexible negotiations pending the definition of EU harvest volumes and post-tariff US demand (indications from Ciatti/Global reports).
  • Tuscany – indicative prices : 2022 bulk Chianti: €140–170/hl (Camera Firenze, 5/10); signs of correction on top DOCG grapes 2025 vs 2024 (BMTI analysis).
  • Inventories : 36 Mhl as of 09/30/25 (−9.6% vs July; 1.3% y/y).
  • Weather & Yields : In Italy, yields improved in Central and Southern Italy, but were more erratic in the North; in France, hot August conditions compressed volumes; in Spain, yields were revised downwards.

Markets & Channels

  • USA : key market to contract for Italy in summer 2025 due to tariffs; attention to channel mix (on-trade more resilient than off-trade in some metropolitan areas) and targeted discounts.
  • UK : Industrial restructuring (e.g., Chapel Down) signals caution regarding domestic demand for still wines; premium sparkling wines are more robust in large-scale retail trade.
  • Awards & Lists : Wine Enthusiast ’s “ Top 100 Best Buys 2025 ” ranks 17 Italian wines among the best for quality/price (e.g. Moscato d’Asti 2024 Saracco #3).
  • Trade structure : growing role of re-export hubs (value added through storage/bottling), useful for logistics and pricing strategies.

Regulation & Compliance (quick check)

  • OIV 2025 label (updated international guidelines).
  • EU e-label (Reg. 2021/2117) : mandatory ingredients and nutritional information; tracking-free QR code ; operational updates by 2025.
  • Italy – (partially) dealcoholized wine : national framework 2025 with ban on PDO/PGI and labelling obligations (“dealcoholized / partially dealcoholized”).

Things to monitor (4Q25–1Q26)

  1. Bulk price curves for Italy/Spain after the harvest closes and a possible post-Holiday US promotional relaunch.
  2. Implementation of US tariffs and potential EU-US negotiations; impact on sparkling vs. still .
  3. Capex/reorganizations in UK and AU (Chapel Down; “Vinarchy” in AU) as a litmus test of demand.

B2B content ideas for wineries/consortia

  • “US Anti-Tariff Plan: How to Defend the 2026 Margin” – dynamic price lists, country/channel allocations, use of re-export hubs and FX hedging.
  • “2025 Harvest Between 44–47 Mhl: Inventory Management and Cash Flow” – Levers for Grape, Blend, Bulk↔Bottle Contracts, D2C E-commerce, and Q1 Campaigns.
  • “Risk-Free Label 2025: Operational Checklist for e-Labels & QR Codes” – requirements, privacy audits, content governance, and localizations.

Wine Report of November 3 2025

with:

Wine trends in Italy and around the world

Quick Briefing (Italy & the World)

  • Italy’s 2025 harvest: estimated 47.4 million hl (8% higher than 2024) and “very good/excellent” quality; joint Assoenologi–UIV–ISMEA survey (10.09.2025).
  • Italian exports H1 2025: moderate stability (1.5% value ≈ €2.8 billion; 2.1% volume ≈ 703.5 million l) ; but July–August in the USA −28% in value ; January–July in the USA −1.1% value with a falling price/litre. (11.09, 18.09, 30.10.2025).
  • Cantina Italia (stock): 36 million hl present as of September 30, 2025 (-9.6% vs. July; 1.3% y/y) awaiting the new harvest. (October 31, 2025).
  • Global scenario: in the first half of 2025, global exports will decline by 2.3% in value and 3.7% in volume (OEMV, 16.09.2025). France reduces its harvest estimate to 36 million hl (07.10.2025).
  • Bulk wine: H1 2025 ~ 16.5 mln hl exported (−2.3% y/y) but value ≈ €1.2 bn (−0.3%) thanks to average price ~€0.78/l ( +2.1%) . (09.2025).
  • 2025 grape prices: sharp drop reported in Umbria (Chamber of Commerce lists, local estimates); Sangiovese ~€26–30/q , Merlot/Cabernet ~€28–30/q , Sagrantino DOCG ~€100–140/q (18–31.10.2025). Vicenza/VR DOC indications ~€40–60/q .
  • Innovation: Artificial Intelligence (vineyard monitoring, predictive irrigation, phenological/qualitative models, wine tourism) is a driver of efficiency and sustainability (2025 review).

M&A Radar

Deal / RumorPartsSizeGeoSource (date)
Castel Vins → Tannic (100%)Castel (FR) acquires Tannico from Campari & Moët HennessyndIT/FR (e-commerce/distrib.)
Ulisse Estate → MontevetranoTenuta Ulisse (White Bridge Inv.) acquires MontevetranondIT (Campania)
Caffo Group 1915 ↔ CampariTransfer of the Cinzano & Frattina brands€100 millionIT (aperitif/wine brands)
Caffo Group 1915 ↔ IWBPurchase of the Valle Talloria site (production unit)ndIT (Piedmont)
Enartis → ParsecIntegration of winemaking automation solutionsndIT/Global (technology)
Calmére Estate (Napa)Sold to a Chinese investor (by the Peju family)

Prices & Harvest (flash)

Grapes (€/q unless otherwise stated):

  • Umbria: Sangiovese 26–30 ; Merlot/Cabernet 28–30 ; Sagrantino DOCG 100–140 (general weakness vs 2024).
  • Veneto/Vicenza (DOC): indicative range € 40–60 /q, with premiums for organic.

Bulk wines (at the origin):

  • PGI Italia – ISMEA index (October 2025): mixed signals; white/red between ~€5.2–5.9 per hectograde , differentiated weekly/annual variations; Tuscan Sangiovese squares ~€7.75/hectograde (20.10.2025).
  • Global bulk H1 2025: average price ~€0.78/l (2.1%); volumes down.

Harvest & climate:

  • Italy: Estimated 47.4 million hl ; healthy grapes, high quality; some areas (Tuscany) cut yields to protect value ( ~2.4 million hl vs 2.7 in 2024).
  • France: Estimated 36 million hl due to summer heat; impact on some regions/appellations.
  • Italian stock: 36 million hl at the end of September: key variable for prices in the new campaign.

Wine Report of November 2 2025

with:

Today’s wine and cellar trends

Key points

  • The 2025 Italian harvest is estimated at around 47.4 million hl , 8% compared to 2024: good health of the grapes and generally high quality.
  • Italian wine exports in the first half of 2025 grew by 1.5% in value (~€2.8 billion) and 2.1% in volume (~703.5 million liters). However, the US market is showing significant weakness, with conditions deteriorating in the second half of the year.
  • The bulk wine market in Italy is showing signs of price pressure: despite declining volumes, value is holding up thanks to a slight increase in the average price (~€0.78/litre) but with evident oversupply.
  • Grape prices in some Italian regions are dropping sharply: in Umbria, for example, Sangiovese 2025 is quoted between €26-30/quintal, Merlot/Cabernet between €28-30/quintal, while Sagrantino DOCG is recording much higher values (€100-140/q).
  • Globally, innovation is also entering the wine sector: a recent study highlights how AI, sensors, and Industry 4.0 technologies are gaining ground in vineyards, production, and wine tourism.
  • The regulatory/trade environment presents challenges: US tariff action, the strength of the euro, and Italy’s need to diversify its export markets (Asia, South America) are the order of the day.

M&A Radar

OperationParties involvedSize (if available)GeographySource data
Purchase of the “Valle Talloria” site (Piedmont)Caffo Group 1915 acquires from Italian Wine Brands SpAnot disclosedIT (Piedmont)October 13, 2025
Sale of Cinzano Frattina brands from Campari Group to Caffo GroupCampari → Caffo~€100 millionITJune 26, 2025
Calmére Estate (Napa, USA) Acquired by Chinese Investor

Prices & Harvest – Mini Box

  • Italy 2025 harvest : ~47.4 million hl (≈ 8% vs 2024) Some regions choose to contain volumes (e.g. Tuscany 2.4 million hl compared to 2.7 million in 2024) to preserve quality.
  • Grape prices :
    • Umbria: Sangiovese ~€26-30/100 kg; Merlot/Cabernet ~€28-30/100 kg; Sagrantino DOCG ~€100-140/100 kg.
    • Veneto/Vicenza DOC: DOC grapes approximately €40-60/quintal in 2025.
  • Bulk wine market : In Italy, stable value (~€1.2 billion) despite a slight drop in volumes, average price ~€0.78/litre (2.1%) indicative of the segment.
  • Weather/Quality Notes : Grapes generally healthy, high concentration, very good quality. However, drought risks persist in some areas (southern Italy).